Demand-Planning-with-SAP-APO.ppt

DemandPlanningwithSAPAPO ClausBoschApplicationSolutionManagementSCMSAPAG January2008 SAP2008 Page1 Agenda IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos References SAP2008 Page2 PainPointsinDemandPlanning Doyouhaveproblemswith Differencesinplanneddemandandactualsales Incorporatingallnecessarydemandinformationlikepromotions productlifecyclesorothereventsinyourdemandplan Demandvisibilityandconsistencyacrossallyourdepartmentsandusers Wrongforecasts SAP2008 Page3 ImplicationsforyourDemandManagement andthereforefaceBadforecastqualityIncompleteandinaccuratedemandHighnumberofstockoutsHighinventorylevelsSlowresponsetochangingmarketLackofinformationforrightplanningdecisions SAP2008 Page4 Doyouthereforeneedatoolto shapedemandconsideringpromotions eventsandthelifecycleofproducts improveforecastaccuracy achievehigherproductavailability bettersenseandactivelymanagedemandbyconsideringvariousdemandsignals supporteffectivelythesynchronizationofyoursupplyanddemand improvethecalculationofbufferorsafetystocks SAP2008 Page5 Synchronizesupplywithdemandinyourglobalsupplychainbybalancingpushandpullnetwork planningprocessesandbyhandlingreplenishmentandproductionbasedonactualdemand APODP ImprovestheforecastqualityandplanningaccuracyAPOSNP ImprovesvisibilityacrossyourglobalsupplychainandlowersinventoryAPOPP DS SupportsyouincreatingoptimizedproductionplansAPOgATP Allowsstate of the artsalesorderconfirmationplanningprocessesAPOTP VS OptimizestransportationloadsandminimizestransportationcostsAPOAlertMonitor PowerfulexceptionmessagesystemintegratedinallAPOplanningmodules GlobalAvailable to Promise DemandPlanning SupplyNetworkPlanning ProductionPlanning DetailedScheduling AdvancedPlanning Optimization AlertMonitor TransportationPlanning VehicleScheduling DemandPlanningispartofAPO SAP2008 Page6 Agenda IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos References SAP2008 Page7 APODP DemandPlanning Comprehensiveforecastingtool setStatisticalforecastingwithcausalandtime seriesmethodsSelectionofbest fitmodelAutomaticoutlierdetectionavailableHighlyconfigurableplanningbookswithmacrofunctionalitySupportingaggregation disaggregationlogicLifecycleplanningPlanpromotionsseparatelyfromtherestofyourforecastTrack monitorforecastaccuracySeasonalplanningCollaborativedemandplanning ImprovedforecastqualityOnetoolforpowerandbusinessuserConsolidateddemandplan differentregions countries departments KeyBenefits Features Calculateanddeterminefuturedemandtoimprovedemandqualityandaccuracy SAP2008 Page8 TypicalDPPlanningCycle Sense Respond Compareandevaluatedifferentscenarios Importrelevantmasterandtransactionaldata e g historicaldata Generateforecast applylifecyclemanagement Reviewfinaldemandplan Planpromotionsand orotherevents ReleasefinaldemandtoAPOSNPorSAPERP Simulate 1 3 4 5 6 7 Analyzeandpreparedata 2 Collaborate SAP2008 Page9 InteractivePlanning Textcanbeaddedtoanycell notesmanagement Copyandpaste withingridandfrom toMicrosoftExcel User specificcustomization FreedefinitionofplanningbooksanddataviewsCreationofdatagroups selections anduser specificassignmentMulti levelplanningwithfullvisibility drillup down Supportingdifferentaggregation disaggregationlogicDatarepresentationondifferentperiodicitiesandhorizons SAP2008 Page10 UsegraphsandchartstorepresentdatainvisuallyperspicuouswayGraphswithdatamanipulationpossibilitiesUsehighflexibilityincustomizingandcapabilityofdisplayingmorecharttypes InteractivePlanning SAPChartEngine SAP2008 Page11 Macros Useadvancedmacrostoperformcomplexcalculationsquicklyandeasily APOsystemcomeswithexamplesoftheuseofmacrofunctionsandoperatorsMacrosareexecutedeitherdirectlybytheuserininteractiveplanningorautomaticallyatapredefinedpointintimeduringabackgroundjob SAP2008 Page12 AlertManagement Alertsarecommunicatedtotheuserby VisualizationinthealertmonitorMailSMSmessage AlertscanbecustomizeduserspecificAlertsaretriggeredduringplanningrunorinteractiveplanningfor ForecasterrorsexceedingbordersdefinedbytheuserAnykindofcheckcarriedoutbyamacro SAP2008 Page13 LifecycleManagement Actualsforoldproduct LifecyclePlanningsimulatesthelaunch growth maturity anddiscontinuationphasesofdifferentproductsMimicsthesalescurvethatyouexpecttheproducttodisplayduringthefollowingphases LaunchandgrowthDiscontinuation SAP2008 Page14 PromotionPlanning Attemptstopredicttheoutcomeoftheeffectofanevent e g monthlypromotionsoradvertisingcampaignEnablesseparationofbasesalesdatafromchangescausedbytheeventTools MultilevelpromotionsCannibalizationPostpromotionanalysis patternidentification repetitionCollaborationthroughtheInternetwithtradingpartnerIntegrationofcampaignscreatedinSAPCRMtosupportTradePromotionManagement SAP2008 Page15 Cannibalization Youusecannibalizationgroupstomodeltheimpactofapromotiononsalesofrelatedproducts SAP2008 Page16 SeasonalPlanning Freelydefinableseasonsandplanningyearsareintroducedthatcanbeflexiblyassignedtocharacteristiccombinations SAP2008 Page17 ObjectiveCreateademandplanbyintegratingallavailableinformationCollaborativeprocesstogain onenumber consensusfromsales marketing operationsCombinevariousdata ForecastPromotionsBudgets salesplans etc Manualchanges ConsensusDemandPlanning SAP2008 Page18 DuetDemandPlanning DuetDemandPlanningenablessalesandplannerstoutilizethefullMicrosoftExcelcapabilitiesasaintuitiveplanningfrontendformySAPSCM FasterandaccurateplansalignedtocustomerdemandrequirementsLeveragesthefullcapabilitiesofMicrosoftExcel formulae functions graphics etc PresentsanintuitiveinterfacethatrequiresminimumtrainingDeliversimproveduseracceptanceandproductivitythroughsimpleandtimelyaccesstorelevantbusinessinformationDesignedasacompositeapplicationbasedonEnterpriseSOA SAP2008 Page19 DemandCombination DemandCombinationreconcilesmultipledemandstreamsinanautomatedmannerusingaflexibledecisionframeworkthatrepresentbusinessrulestogetamoreaccurateprojectionofdemandAnalysesmultipledemandstreamsinanautomatedmannerCarriesoutreasonabilitycheckstoidentifyeventsorotherdemandcomponentsAlertsusertodiscrepancieswhereautomatedcorrectionisnotpossibleDeterminesthemostappropriatedemandstreamforeachtimeperiodPassesthereconcileddemandtothedownstreamplanningandexecutionsystemsIsanenablerofademand drivensupplynetworke g forcollaborativeplanning dynamicS OP incorporationoftheVMIorderforecastintothedemandplan SAP2008 Page20 Agenda IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos References SAP2008 Page21 ForecastingpredictsfuturedemandbasedonhistoricalandjudgmentaldataForecastscanbecreatedinvariousways StatisticalmethodsHumanjudgementCombinationofabove Forecasting SAP2008 Page22 ConstantExponentialsmoothingMovingaverageWeightedmovingaverageTrendExponentialsmoothingLinearRegressionSeason withouttrend ExponentialsmoothingTrend SeasonExponentialsmoothingManualForecastingSeasonallinearregressionOthersCroston sporadicdemand HistoryNoForecastExternalForecast CausalAnalysisMultipleLinearRegression MLR InfluenceVariablesClimate e g Temperature PriceAdvertisingDistribution AUTOMATEDPICKBEST CompositeForecastOwndefinedmodelselectionbasedonerrormeasureCombinedifferentforecastsWeighteachforecast timeindependentordynamic StatisticalForecastingMethods SAP2008 Page23 Finalizedforecast UnivariateForecastingMethods Correctedcurrentdata Forecast Correctedforecast Currentdata ConstantExponentialsmoothing1storderExponentialsmoothing1storderwitha adaptationMovingaverageMovingweightedaverageCrostonTrendExponentialsmoothing1storder HoltExponentialsmoothing2ndorderExponentialsmoothing2ndorderwitha adaptationLinearRegressionSeason withouttrend Exponentialsmoothing1storder WintersTrend SeasonExponentialsmoothing1storderSeasonallinearregressionOthersHistoryManualForecastingNoForecastExternalForecast BAdI SAP2008 Page24 IntermittentDemand Phase In Out ChooseForecastingModel Overview DifferentunivariateforecastingmethodscanbeassignedbasedonregularandintermittentdemandpatternsAdditionally lifecycleprofilescanbeaddedtosimulatephase in outofproducts SAP2008 Page25 AutomatedPicktheBestModelSelection YoucanchooseAutomaticModelSelectionifthereisnoknowledgeofthepatternsinthehistoricaldataThehistoricaldataarecheckedforconstant trend seasonal andseasonaltrendpatternsProcedure1Therelevantforecastparameters alpha beta andgamma areconstantNoconsiderationoferrormeasureTheforecastingmodelthatcorrespondsmostcloselytothepatterndetectedisappliedProcedure2Testsforconstant trend seasonal andseasonaltrendpatterns usingallpossiblecombinationsforthealpha beta andgammasmoothingfactorsThemodelwiththelowesterrormeasurecustomized e g meanabsolutedeviationMAD ischosen SAP2008 Page26 MultipleLinearRegression MLR MLRcanassesshowthedevelopmentofone dependent variablecanbeexplainedbyseveral independent variablesForacausalanalysis MLRdoesthefinalcalculationoftheregressioncoefficientsTypicalvariables TrendSeasonalityClimaticconditions e g temperature precipitation Economy e g GDP inflation unemploymentrate Productspecific e g price costs newmodel version marketingactivities Demography e g populationinageclasses Others e g lifecycle SAP2008 Page27 MultipleLinearRegression MLR CausalAnalysiscanassesshowthedevelopmentofone dependent variablecanbeexplainedbyseveral independent variablesTheinputdatafortheMLR i e themodellingofthecausaleffectsisthekeyissue Yi bo b1X1 b2X2 bnXn SalesHistory Mean Coefficients CausalFactor SAP2008 Page28 CompositeForecasting CombinedifferentforecastsOwndefinedmodelselectionbasedonerrormeasureWeighteachforecast timeindependentordynamic EnablesthecombinationofdifferentforecastswithaconstantortimedependentweightingTheweightingwill ingeneral bepurelyarbitrary Forecast 1n Combine Reconcile Univariate MLR Univariate Result MLR SAP2008 Page29 ForecastErrorMeasuresforUnivariateModels LookaterrorsovertimeCumulativemeasuressummedoraveragedoveralldataErrorTotal ET MeanPercentageError MPE MeanAbsolutePercentageError MAPE MeanSquaredError MSE RootMeanSquaredError RMSE SmoothedmeasuresreflectserrorsintherecentpastMeanAbsoluteDeviation MAD MeasureBias Measureerrormagnitude SAP2008 Page30 MeasuresofFitforMLR InfluenceofanindependentvariableCoefficient Elasticity AMeasureOfGoodness Of FitR2AdjustedR2 Correlationofthedependenttoanindependentvariablet statistic Autocorrelation pastperiodsareinfluencingcurrentperiods Durbin WatsonDurbin h SAP2008 Page31 Agenda IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos References SAP2008 Page32 IntegrationBetweenSAPSCMandSAPNetWeaverBusinessIntelligence SAPNetWeaverBI SAPSCM WithinternalSAPBI APODemandPlanning DemandHistory ExternalSAPBI InfoCube InfoCube Centraldatastoreforreportingandanalyzing Sourcesystemsinclude SAPERPExcelNon SAPsystems POSdataCostinformationOrderandshippingdata DemandHistory DemandHistory Forecastingresults SAP2008 Page33 DatainSAPSupplyChainManagement SAPSCM DPmasterData CVCs TransactionalData SAPBIextractionstructures SAPSCM SAPERP MasterData TransactionalData MasterData ATP DP PP DS SNP LC CIF SAPBI LocationProductResourcePPM PDS SAP2008 Page34 DemandPlanningMasterData CharacteristicValueCombinations PlanningObjectStructure SAP2008 Page35 Agenda IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos References SAP2008 Page36 SomefiguresaboutSAPAPO Information FirstreleaseSAPAPO1 1 1998 Currentrelease SAPAPO5 1 8thAPOrelease partofSCM2007 inramp upsinceAugust31st2007 massshipmentplannedforQ1 2008Plannednextrelease SAPAPO7 0 Startramp up Q4 2008 NumberofactiveAPOcustomers 1800 ServicemarketplaceforSCM Information SomefiguresaboutSAPAPO SAP2008 Page37 Molex SAP DemandPlanning 1 SAP2008 Page38 Molex SAP DemandPlanning 2 SAP2008 Page39 Conair SAP DemandPlanning SAP2008 Page40 OxfordUniversityPress SAP SupplyChainManagement 1 SAP2008 Page41 OxfordUniversityPress SAP SupplyChainManagement 2 SAP2008 Page42 AnalystQuotes SAPExtendsItsVisionforSupplyChainManagement 1 AsimplementationsofSAPAdvancedPlannerandOptimizer APO haveincreased APO sstrengths andchallenges havebecomeapparent APO5 0isthemostmatureproductinthemySAPSCMportfolio WithAPO5 0 SAPhasmovedtheinvestmenttowardsinnovationandnewfunctionality Functionally SAPisagoodcontenderwhencompaniesareconsideringusingSAPAPOtopowertheirATPprocesses 1White etal March20 2006 Gartner SAP2008 Page43 SAPSCM ClausBoschClaus bosch ThispresentationisapreliminaryversionandnotsubjecttoyourlicenseagreementoranyotheragreementwithSAP Thisdocumentcontainsonlyintendedstrategies developments andfunctionalitiesoftheSAP productandisnotintendedtobebindinguponSAPtoanyparticularcourseofbusiness productstrategy and ordevelopment PleasenotethatthisdocumentissubjecttochangeandmaybechangedbySAPatanytimewithoutnotice SAPassumesnoresponsibilityforerrorsoromissionsinthisdocument SAP2008 Page44 Copyright2008SAPAGAllrightsreserved NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorforanypurposewithouttheexpresspermissionofSAPAG Theinformationcontainedhereinmaybechangedwithoutpriornotice SomesoftwareproductsmarketedbySAPAGanditsdistributorscontainproprietarysoftwarecomponentsofothersoftwarevendors SAP R 3 mySAP mySAP com xApps xApp SAPNetWeaver Duet BusinessByDesign ByDesign PartnerEdgeandotherSAPproductsandservicesmentionedhereinaswellastheirrespectivelogosaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofSAPAGinGermanyandinseveralothercountriesallovertheworld Allotherproductandservicenamesmentionedandassociatedlogosdisplayedarethetrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies Datacontainedinthisdocumentservesinformationalpurposesonly Nationalproductspecificationsmayvary TheinformationinthisdocumentisproprietarytoSAP ThisdocumentisapreliminaryversionandnotsubjecttoyourlicenseagreementoranyotheragreementwithSAP Thisdocumentcontainsonlyintendedstrategies developments andfunctionalitiesoftheSAP productandisnotintendedtobebindinguponSAPtoanyparticularcourseofbusiness productstrategy and ordevelopment SAPassumesnoresponsibilityforerrorsoromissionsinthisdocument SAPdoesnotwarranttheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformation text graphics links orotheritemscontainedwithinthismaterial Thisdocumentisprovidedwithoutawarrantyofanykind eitherexpressorimplied includingbutnotlimitedtotheimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantability fitnessforaparticularpurpose ornon infringement SAPshallhavenoliabilityfordamagesofanykindincludingwithoutlimitationdirect special indirect orconsequentialdamagesthatmayresultfromtheuseofthesematerials Thislimitationshallnotapplyincasesofintentorgrossnegligence Thestatutoryliabilityforpersonalinjuryanddefectiveproductsisnotaffected SAPhasnocontrolovertheinformationthatyoumayaccessthroughtheuseofhotlinkscontainedinthesematerialsanddoesnotendorseyouruseofthird partyWebpagesnorprovideanywarrantywhatsoeverrelatingtothird partyWebpagesWeitergabeundVervielf ltigungdieserPublikationodervonTeilendaraussind zuwelchemZweckundinwelcherFormauchimmer ohnedieausdr cklicheschriftlicheGenehmigungdurchSAPAGnichtgestattet IndieserPublikationenthalteneInformationenk nnenohnevorherigeAnk ndigungge ndertwerden EinigevonderSAPAGundderenVertriebspartnernvertriebeneSoftwareproduktek nnenSoftwarekomponentenumfassen dieEigentumandererSoftwareherstellersind SAP R 3 mySAP mySAP com xApps xApp SAPNetWeaver Duet BusinessByDesign ByDesign PartnerEdgeundandereindiesemDokumenterw hnteSAP ProdukteundServicessowiediedazugeh rigenLogossindMarkenodereingetrageneMarkenderSAPAGinDeutschlandundinm