曼昆经济学原理宏观经济学分册英文原版ppt课件.ppt

2007ThomsonSouth Western MeasuringaNation sIncome Microeconomicsisthestudyofhowindividualhouseholdsandfirmsmakedecisionsandhowtheyinteractwithoneanotherinmarkets Macroeconomicsisthestudyoftheeconomyasawhole Itsgoalistoexplaintheeconomicchangesthataffectmanyhouseholds firms andmarketsatonce MeasuringaNation sIncome Macroeconomicsanswersquestionslikethefollowing Whyisaverageincomehighinsomecountriesandlowinothers Whydopricesriserapidlyinsometimeperiodswhiletheyaremorestableinothers Whydoproductionandemploymentexpandinsomeyearsandcontractinothers THEECONOMY SINCOMEANDEXPENDITURE Whenjudgingwhethertheeconomyisdoingwellorpoorly itisnaturaltolookatthetotalincomethateveryoneintheeconomyisearning THEECONOMY SINCOMEANDEXPENDITURE Foraneconomyasawhole incomemustequalexpenditurebecause Everytransactionhasabuyerandaseller Everydollarofspendingbysomebuyerisadollarofincomeforsomeseller Figure1TheCircular FlowDiagram Spending Revenue Income Flowofinputs andoutputs Flowofdollars THEMEASUREMENTOFGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT Grossdomesticproduct GDP isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy GDPisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime THEMEASUREMENTOFGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT Theequalityofincomeandexpenditurecanbeillustratedwiththecircular flowdiagram THEMEASUREMENTOFGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT GDPistheMarketValue Outputisvaluedatmarketprices OfAll Includesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandlegallysoldinmarkets Final Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods notintermediategoods thevalueiscountedonlyonce GoodsandServices Itincludesbothtangiblegoods food clothing cars andintangibleservices haircuts housecleaning doctorvisits THEMEASUREMENTOFGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT Produced Itincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast WithinaCountry Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry InaGivenPeriodofTime Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime usuallyayearoraquarter threemonths THECOMPONENTSOFGDP GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets WhatIsNotCountedinGDP GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly suchasillegaldrugs THECOMPONENTSOFGDP GDP Y isthesumofthefollowing Consumption C Investment I GovernmentPurchases G NetExports NX Y C I G NX THECOMPONENTSOFGDP Consumption C Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoodsandservices withtheexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing Investment I Thespendingoncapitalequipment inventories andstructures includingnewhousing THECOMPONENTSOFGDP GovernmentPurchases G Thespendingongoodsandservicesbylocal state andfederalgovernments Doesnotincludetransferpaymentsbecausetheyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsorservices NetExports NX Exportsminusimports Table1GDPandItsComponents GDPandItsComponents 2004 REALVERSUSNOMINALGDP NominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices REALVERSUSNOMINALGDP AnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator Table2RealandNominalGDP Table2RealandNominalGDP Table2RealandNominalGDP TheGDPDeflator TheGDPdeflatorisameasureofthepricelevelcalculatedastheratioofnominalGDPtorealGDPtimes100 IttellsuswhatportionoftheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced TheGDPDeflator TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows TheGDPDeflator NominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows Table2RealandNominalGDP Figure2RealGDPintheUnitedStates Billionsof 2000Dollars 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 1995 2005 2 000 ISGDPAGOODMEASUREOFECONOMICWELL BEING GDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell beingofasociety GDPperpersontellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy HigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthehappinessorqualityoflife however GDPANDECONOMICWELL BEING Somethingsthatcontributetowell beingarenotincludedinGDP Thevalueofleisure Thevalueofacleanenvironment Thevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets suchasthevalueofthetimeparentsspendwiththeirchildrenandthevalueofvolunteerwork Table3GDPandtheQualityofLife Becauseeverytransactionhasabuyerandaseller thetotalexpenditureintheeconomymustequalthetotalincomeintheeconomy Grossdomesticproduct GDP measuresaneconomy stotalexpenditureonnewlyproducedgoodsandservicesandthetotalincomeearnedfromtheproductionofthesegoodsandservices GDPisthemarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime GDPisdividedamongfourcomponentsofexpenditure consumption investment governmentpurchases andnetexports NominalGDPusescurrentpricestovaluetheeconomy sproduction RealGDPusesconstantbase yearpricestovaluetheeconomy sproductionofgoodsandservices TheGDPdeflator calculatedfromtheratioofnominaltorealGDP measuresthelevelofpricesintheeconomy GDPisagoodmeasureofeconomicwell beingbecausepeoplepreferhighertolowerincomes Itisnotaperfectmeasureofwell beingbecausesomethings suchasleisuretimeandacleanenvironment arenotmeasuredbyGDP Dollarfiguresfromdifferentpointsintimedonotrepresentavalidcomparisonofpurchasingpower Variouslawsandprivatecontractsusepriceindexestocorrectfortheeffectsofinflation Therealinterestrateequalsthenominalinterestrateminustherateofinflation 2007ThomsonSouth Western MeasuringtheCostofLiving Inflationreferstoasituationinwhichtheeconomy soverallpricelevelisrising Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepricelevelfromthepreviousperiod THECONSUMERPRICEINDEX Theconsumerpriceindex CPI isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer TheBureauofLaborStatisticsreportstheCPIeachmonth Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime THECONSUMERPRICEINDEX WhentheCPIrises thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated 1 Fixthebasket Determinewhatpricesaremostimportanttothetypicalconsumer TheBureauofLaborStatistics BLS identifiesamarketbasketofgoodsandservicesthetypicalconsumerbuys TheBLSconductsmonthlyconsumersurveystosettheweightsforthepricesofthosegoodsandservices HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated 2 Findtheprices Findthepricesofeachofthegoodsandservicesinthebasketforeachpointintime 3 Computethebasket scost Usethedataonpricestocalculatethecostofthebasketofgoodsandservicesatdifferenttimes HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated 4 Chooseabaseyearandcomputetheindex Designateoneyearasthebaseyear makingitthebenchmarkagainstwhichotheryearsarecompared Computetheindexbydividingthepriceofthebasketinoneyearbythepriceinthebaseyearandmultiplyingby100 HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated 5 Computetheinflationrate Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepriceindexfromtheprecedingperiod HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated Theinflationrateiscalculatedasfollows Table1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate AnExample Table1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate AnExample HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate AnotherExampleBaseYearis2002 Basketofgoodsin2002costs 1 200 Thesamebasketin2004costs 1 236 CPI 1 236 1 200 100 103 Pricesincreased3percentbetween2002and2004 FYI WhatIsintheCPI sBasket ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving TheCPIisanaccuratemeasureoftheselectedgoodsthatmakeupthetypicalbundle butitisnotaperfectmeasureofthecostofliving SubstitutionbiasIntroductionofnewgoodsUnmeasuredqualitychanges ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving SubstitutionBiasThebasketdoesnotchangetoreflectconsumerreactiontochangesinrelativeprices Consumerssubstitutetowardgoodsthathavebecomerelativelylessexpensive Theindexoverstatestheincreaseincostoflivingbynotconsideringconsumersubstitution ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving IntroductionofNewGoodsThebasketdoesnotreflectthechangeinpurchasingpowerbroughtonbytheintroductionofnewproducts Newproductsresultingreatervariety whichinturnmakeseachdollarmorevaluable Consumersneedfewerdollarstomaintainanygivenstandardofliving ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving UnmeasuredQualityChangesIfthequalityofagoodrisesfromoneyeartothenext thevalueofadollarrises evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame Ifthequalityofagoodfallsfromoneyeartothenext thevalueofadollarfalls evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame TheBLStriestoadjustthepriceforconstantquality butsuchdifferencesarehardtomeasure ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving Thesubstitutionbias introductionofnewgoods andunmeasuredqualitychangescausetheCPItooverstatethetruecostofliving TheissueisimportantbecausemanygovernmentprogramsusetheCPItoadjustforchangesintheoveralllevelofprices TheCPIoverstatesinflationbyabout1percentagepointperyear TheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndex TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows TheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndex TheBLScalculatesotherpricesindexes Theindexfordifferentregionswithinthecountry Theproducerpriceindex whichmeasuresthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirmsratherthanconsumers TheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndex EconomistsandpolicymakersmonitorboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising Therearetwoimportantdifferencesbetweentheindexesthatcancausethemtodiverge TheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndex TheGDPdeflatorreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically whereas theconsumerpriceindexreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesboughtbyconsumers TheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndex Theconsumerpriceindexcomparesthepriceofafixedbasketofgoodsandservicestothepriceofthebasketinthebaseyear onlyoccasionallydoestheBLSchangethebasket whereastheGDPdeflatorcomparesthepriceofcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicestothepriceofthesamegoodsandservicesinthebaseyear Figure2TwoMeasuresofInflation 1965 Percent perYear 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 1995 2005 CORRECTINGECONOMICVARIABLESFORTHEEFFECTSOFINFLATION Priceindexesareusedtocorrectfortheeffectsofinflationwhencomparingdollarfiguresfromdifferenttimes DollarFiguresfromDifferentTimes DothefollowingtoconvertdollarvaluesfromyearTintotoday sdollars DollarFiguresfromDifferentTimes Dothefollowingtoconvert inflate BabeRuth swagesin1931todollarsin2005 Salary Salary Pricelevel lin2005 Pricelevee lin1931 2005 1931 80 000 195 15 2 1 026 316 Indexation Whensomedollaramountisautomaticallycorrectedforinflationbylaworcontract theamountissaidtobeindexedforinflation Table2TheMostPopularMoviesofAllTimes InflationAdjusted RealandNominalInterestRates Interestrepresentsapaymentinthefutureforatransferofmoneyinthepast RealandNominalInterestRates Thenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateusuallyreportedandnotcorrectedforinflation Itistheinterestratethatabankpays Therealinterestrateistheinterestratethatiscorrectedfortheeffectsofinflation RealandNominalInterestRates Youborrowed 1 000foroneyear Nominalinterestratewas15 Duringtheyearinflationwas10 Realinterestrate Nominalinterestrate Inflation 15 10 5 Figure3RealandNominalInterestRates 1965 InterestRates percent peryear 15 Realinterestrate 10 5 0 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Nominalinterestrate Theconsumerpriceindexshowsthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesrelativetothecostofthesamebasketinthebaseyear Theindexisusedtomeasuretheoveralllevelofpricesintheeconomy ThepercentagechangeintheCPImeasurestheinflationrate Theconsumerpriceindexisanimperfectmeasureofthecostoflivingforthefollowingthreereasons substitutionbias theintroductionofnewgoods andunmeasuredchangesinquality Becauseofmeasurementproblems theCPIoverstatesannualinflationbyabout1percentagepoint TheGDPdeflatordiffersfromtheCPIbecauseitincludesgoodsandservicesproducedratherthangoodsandservicesconsumed Inaddition theCPIusesafixedbasketofgoods whiletheGDPdeflatorautomaticallychangesthegroupofgoodsandservicesovertimeasthecompositionofGDPchanges Dollarfiguresfromdifferentpointsintimedonotrepresentavalidcomparisonofpurchasingpower Variouslawsandprivatecontractsusepriceindexestocorrectfortheeffectsofinflation Therealinterestrateequalsthenominalinterestrateminustherateofinflation 2007ThomsonSouth Western Saving Investment andtheFinancialSystem Thefinancialsystemconsistsofthegroupofinstitutionsintheeconomythathelptomatchoneperson ssavingwithanotherperson sinvestment Itmovestheeconomy sscarceresourcesfromsaverstoborrowers FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSINTHEU S ECONOMY Thefinancialsystemismadeupoffinancialinstitutionsthatcoordinatetheactionsofsaversandborrowers Financialinstitutionscanbegroupedintotwodifferentcategories FinancialmarketsFinancialintermediaries FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSINTHEU S ECONOMY FinancialMarketsStockMarketBondMarketFinancialIntermediariesBanksMutualFunds FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSINTHEU S ECONOMY Financialmarketsaretheinstitutionsthroughwhichsaverscandirectlyprovidefundstoborrowers Financialintermediariesarefinancialinstitutionsthroughwhichsaverscanindirectlyprovidefundstoborrowers FinancialMarkets TheBondMarketAbondisacertificateofindebtednessthatspecifiesobligationsoftheborrowertotheholderofthebond CharacteristicsofaBondTerm Thelengthoftimeuntilthebondmatures CreditRisk Theprobabilitythattheborrowerwillfailtopaysomeoftheinterestorprincipal TaxTreatment Thewayinwhichthetaxlawstreattheinterestonthebond Municipalbondsarefederaltaxexempt FinancialMarkets TheStockMarketStockrepresentsaclaimtopartialownershipinafirmandistherefore aclaimtotheprofitsthatthefirmmakes Thesaleofstocktoraisemoneyiscalledequityfinancing Comparedtobonds stocksofferbothhigherriskandpotentiallyhigherreturns ThemostimportantstockexchangesintheUnitedStatesaretheNewYorkStockExchange theAmericanStockExchange andNASDAQ FinancialMarkets TheStockMarketMostnewspaperstocktablesprovidethefollowinginformation Price ofashare Volume numberofsharessold Dividend profitspaidtostockholders Price earningsratio FinancialIntermediaries Financialintermediariesarefinancialinstitutionsthroughwhichsaverscanindirectlyprovidefundstoborrowers FinancialIntermediaries Banks takedepositsfrompeoplewhowanttosaveandusethedepositstomakeloanstopeoplewhowanttoborrow paydepositorsinterestontheirdepositsandchargeborrowersslightlyhigherinterestontheirloans FinancialIntermediaries Banks helpcreateamediumofexchangebyallowingpeopletowritechecksagainsttheirdeposits Amediumofexchangeisanitemthatpeoplecaneasilyusetoengageintransactions facilitatethepurchasesofgoodsandservices FinancialIntermediaries MutualFundsAmutualfundisaninstitutionthatsellssharestothepublicandusestheproceedstobuyaportfolio ofvarioustypesofstocks bonds orboth Mutualfundsallowpeoplewithsmallamountsofmoneytoeasilydiversify FinancialIntermediaries OtherFinancialInstitutionsCreditunionsPensionfundsInsurancecompaniesLoansharks SAVINGANDINVESTMENTINTHENATIONALINCOMEACCOUNTS RecallthatGDPisbothtotalincomeinaneconomyandtotalexpenditureontheeconomy soutputofgoodsandservices Y C I G NX SomeImportantIdentities Assumeaclosedeconomy onethatdoesnotengageininternationaltrade Y C I G SomeImportantIdentities Now subtractCandGfrombothsidesoftheequation Y C G ITheleftsideoftheequationisthetotalincomeintheeconomyafterpayingforconsumptionandgovernmentpurchasesandiscallednationalsaving orjustsaving S SomeImportantIdentities SubstitutingSforY C G theequationcanbewrittenas S I SomeImportantIdentities Nationalsaving orsaving isequalto S IS Y C GS Y T C T G TheMeaningofSavingandInvestment NationalSavingNationalsavingisthetotalincomeintheeconomythatremainsafterpayingforconsumptionandgovernmentpurchases PrivateSavingPrivatesavingistheamountofincomethathouseholdshaveleftafterpayingtheirtaxesandpayingfortheirconsumption Privatesaving Y T C TheMeaningofSavingandInvestment PublicSavingPublicsavingistheamountoftaxrevenuethatthegovernmenthasleftafterpayingforitsspending Publicsaving T G TheMeaningofSavingandInvestment SurplusandDeficitIfT G thegovernmentrunsabudgetsurplusbecauseitreceivesmoremoneythanitspends ThesurplusofT Grepresentspublicsaving IfG T thegovernmentrunsabudgetdeficitbecauseitspendsmoremoneythanitreceivesintaxrevenue TheMeaningofSavingandInvestment Fortheeconomyasawhole savingmustbeequaltoinvestment S I THEMARKETFORLOANABLEFUNDS Financialmarketscoordinatetheeconomy ssavingandinvestmentinthemarketforloanablefunds Themarketforloanablefundsisthemarketinwhichthosewhowanttosavesupplyfundsandthosewhowanttoborrowtoinvestdemandfunds SupplyandDemandforLoanableFunds Loanablefundsreferstoallincomethatpeoplehavechosentosaveandlendout ratherthanusefortheirownconsumption Thesupplyofloanablefundscomesfrompeoplewhohaveextraincometheywanttosaveandlendout Thedemandforloanablefundscomesfromhouseholdsandfirmsthatwishtoborrowtomakeinvestments SupplyandDemandforLoanableFunds Interestratethepriceoftheloantheamountthatborrowerspayforloansandtheamountthatlendersreceiveontheirsavinginthemarketforloanablefunds therealinterestrate SupplyandDemandforLoanableFunds Financialmarketsworkmuchlikeothermarketsintheeconomy Theequilibriumofthesupplyanddemandforloanablefundsdeterminestherealinterestrate Figure1TheMarketforLoanableFunds LoanableFunds inbillionsofdollars 0 Interest Rate SupplyandDemandforLoanableFunds GovernmentPoliciesThatAffectSavingandInvestmentTaxesandsavingTaxesandinvestmentGovernmentbudgetdeficitsandsurpluses Policy1 SavingIncentives Taxesoninterestincomesubstantiallyreducethefuturepayofffromcurrentsavingand asaresult reducetheincentivetosave Ataxdecreaseincreasestheincentiveforhouseholdstosaveatanygiveninterestrate Thesupplyofloanablefundscurveshiftsright Theequilibriuminterestratedecreases Thequantitydemandedforloanablefundsincreases Figure2AnIncreaseintheSupplyofLoanableFunds LoanableFunds inbillionsofdollars 0 Interest Rate Supply S1 Demand Policy1 SavingIncentives Ifachangeintaxlawencouragesgreatersaving theresultwillbelowerinterestratesandgreaterinvestment Policy2 InvestmentIncentives Aninvestmenttaxcreditincreasestheincentivetoborrow Increasesthedemandforloanablefunds Shiftsthedemandcurvetotheright Resultsinahigherinterestrateandagreaterquantitysaved Policy2 InvestmentIncentives Ifachangeintaxlawsencouragesgreaterinvestment theresultwillbehigherinterestratesandgreate