经济学人精选版

第二课 证券化市场 FOR most capital markets the financial crisis resembled a stomach churning bungee jump a precipitous fall followed by a sharp rebound albeit not to the heights enjoyed before the turmoil The big exception was securitisation large parts of which are still dangling near the ground Even as it struggles to recover the market that brought the world the joys of collateralised debt obligations faces two stern tests the phasing out of central bank support and a raft of tougher rules Securitisation s boom and bust was spectacular The packaging of mortgages car loans credit card receivables and other debt to sell to capital markets investors began to take off in the 1980s By 2006 it was being used to channel around two thirds of all residential mortgages and half of all consumer credit in America By distributing loans banks could cut their capital needs allowing them to lend more Hedge funds insurers and the like gained access to a broader range of credit risks As the boom reached fever pitch however the quality of the loans being pooled into securities dived especially in mortgages When losses started to mount asset backed issuance dried up see chart forcing governments to take up the slack In some parts of the market they are now stepping aside again The Federal Reserve is winding down its liquidity support for credit card and car loan transactions Some 5 billion of prime private label car deals were priced in February Structured vehicles for risky corporate loans are making a comeback too By contrast housing markets remain almost wholly reliant on government backed agencies to package and guarantee mortgage backed securities MBSs No residential MBSs have been sold in America without such backing for more than two years Europe has seen a few private deals but these were structured to be highly attractive to investors and acceptable as collateral at the European Central Bank s discount window No wonder Ralph Daloisio chairman of the American Securitisation Forum talked of an existential crisis in his speech to the industry group s annual conference last month He even wondered what Jean Paul Sartre would make of it The prosaic reason for the dearth of private issuance is the wide gap between what investors demand and what borrowers will pay Jumbo prime mortgages decent quality loans above the price threshold that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy at are likely to be the first part of the new origination market to come back But it is currently non economic to securitise these loans says Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities To place a new issue given the yields demanded by investors the interest rate payable by borrowers must be 6 85 a full percentage point higher than current levels This differential is the fundamental issue for MBS markets argues Tim Ryan of SIFMA a securities industry association Rating agencies belated tightening of their methodologies has made this gap even harder to close The market for mortgage securities issued by Fannie and Freddie is also about to be tested The Fed s purchases of almost 1 25 trillion worth of such MBSs since last year have helped keep rates near record lows But this programme is due to expire at the end of March Most think the effect of the Fed s withdrawal will be muted because the move has been telegraphed and because there is money on the sidelines waiting to take the Fed s place But rates are still expected to rise at a time when housing demand remains muted sales of new homes hit a record low in February Investors also want the future shape of the industry to be clearer On both sides of the Atlantic lawmakers are struggling to strike the right balance between encouraging a revival of securitisation and protecting the financial system from the instability it can produce Take the bill currently being debated in America s Senate Few would argue with its tightening of disclosure requirements including more information on loan repurchases so that investors can better identify shoddy lenders Similar calls are coming from central bankers who want more data on the securities that they accept as collateral The benefits of the bill s requirement that securitisers retain 5 of a deal s credit risk are less clear Toughening up the warranties that securitisers sign agreeing to buy back duff loans would have the same effect without tying up precious capital And forced asset retention could constitute control under new accounting rules If so no one seems sure either way issuers would have to hold capital against the entire deal not just the retained slice Another turn off is the uncertainty surrounding safe harbour rules which were created to reassure investors in securitised assets that they would continue to receive payments if a sponsoring bank failed Revisions proposed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FDIC on hold for now would punch holes in this ring fence say industry groups A more immediate worry is the cacophony of competing interests exposed by the downturn Banks that service mortgages for instance are reluctant to forgive principal even if that would benefit borrowers and investors because it would trigger write downs of second lien loans on the banks own books One investor likens mortgage securitisation to class warfare although Bank of America s decision to forgive some principal on a limited number of loans may herald a wider ceasefire For many the most off putting factor is the question mark hanging over Fannie and Freddie which have been in government conservatorship since September 2008 Until their role is clarified the future shape of the market and the opportunities for private competitors are unknowable In testimony this week Timothy Geithner America s treasury secretary said that he was committed to encouraging private capital back into the market and to shaking up the two agencies But no details were offered Amid such uncertainty only a madman would ramp up securitisation efforts now says one banker 纵观大多数的资本市场 金融危机有点类似于让人反胃的蹦极跳 先是陡降 继而迅速反 弹 虽然反弹的高度不及危机前 证券化市场倒是个大大的例外了 大部分还在地面摇摇 晃晃 弹不起来 正当它竭力复苏之际 为世界带来欢乐的抵押债务证券 CDOs 市场却 面临着两项严厉的测试 中央银行救助措施的退出以及大量严格的约束规章 证券化市场的繁荣与崩溃令人惊叹 资产证券化形成于上世纪 80 年代 它是将抵押贷款 汽车贷款 信用卡应收账款以及其他出售给投资者的贷款打包而成 2006 年 美国有 2 3 的住房抵押贷款和 1 2 的消费信贷在证券化市场上流通 银行通过分散贷款来削减其资本 金要求 因而就有更多的资金用于借贷了 对冲基金和保险公司一类就很容易接触范围更 广的信贷风险 然而 由于证券化市场的繁荣达到了狂热的地步 流入市场的贷款 尤其是住房抵押贷款 质量下降 随着损耗的日益增加 资产支持证券的发行量开始枯竭 如图表所示 因而政 府不得不着手解决该市场的低迷 而对部分证券化市场 政府却再次避而远之 美联储 就正在逐步减少对信用卡和汽车贷款的资金支持 今年 2 月份 私人信用买车的交易价值 约 50 亿美元 结构性投资工具 存在风险的企业贷款也开始卷土重来 相反 住房市场几乎完全依赖于政府支持的机构 后者对抵押担保债券打包和担保 在美 国 机构对住房抵押贷款支持证券担保的时间若没有两年之多 那么这类契约根本就无人 问津 在欧洲尚且还可看到几宗私人交易 但所设计的这些交易对投资者具有很大的吸引 力 并可以作为欧洲央行贴现窗口的抵押物 难怪美国证券化论坛的执行主席 Ralph Daloisio 在上个月召开的行业年度会议上发表的演讲中提到了 存在主义的 危机这个概念 他甚至怀疑让 保罗 萨特 Jean Paul Sartre 是怎么样理解这个词的 私人发行数量之少 有个比较无聊的理由 即投资者想获得的收益和借款者能够支付的价 格间存在的悬殊差距 超额优级贷款和质量不错的贷款有可能最先重返新兴市场 其价格 超过了房利美和房地美能够购买的价格起点 艾莫赫斯证券公司 Amherst Securities 的 高级董事劳里 古德曼 Laurie Goodman 认为 当前对这些贷款实行证券化不太划算 假 如投资者的收益一定 要发行证券的话 借款者偿付的利率应为 6 85 比当前的利率水 平整整高出一个百分点 证券行业与金融市场协会 SIFMA 的总裁兼首席执行长瑞恩 TimRyan 指出 这种利差是抵押担保债券市场的 基本问题 评级机构对其评级方法姗姗 来迟的严格控制 使差价更难缩小 抵押贷款证券市场也将接受测试 这些债券由房利美和房地美发行 自去年以来 美联储 购买了价值约 1 25 万亿美元的此类抵押担保债券 使得利率创历史低点 但该方案将于 3 月份到期退出 多数业内人士认为 美联储的退出效应将悄无声息 因为该行动众人皆知 以及等候时机的资金可以填补美联储离开留下的空位 2 月份 新住房的销售量创历史低 点 但利率有望在住房需求低迷不振时上扬 投资者也希望行业的未来现状更加清晰 在大西洋的两岸 议员们一方面鼓励证券化的复 苏 另一方面确保金融系统免遭其带来的不稳定影响 努力在这两者间寻求适当的平衡 举美国参议院最近对一项议案进行的辩论为例 没人反对收紧披露要求 包括提供更多的 贷款回购信息 以便于投资者可以更好甄别假冒的放贷者 各国央行行长们也有同样的呼 吁 充当央行抵押物的债券要有更多的相关数据提供给央行 该项议案要求创始机构 或保证机构 保留其证券化债务信用风险的 5 但这带来的好 处还不太清楚 加强创始机构的保证条款 如保证够回不良贷款 应可达成同样效果而不 必绑住宝贵的资本金 在新会计准则下 强制保留资产可能符合证券化资产创始机构的 控 制 要件 如果真是如此 没人能确定是或否 创始机构将必须为整笔证券化资产而不 单是保留的部分准备资本金 另一个转折点是与不确定性有关的 安全港 规则 4 这些规则用于恢复投资者对证券 化资产的信心 如果发行银行破产了的话 投资者的资产仍会得到收益 工业团体认为 联邦存款保险公司 FDIC 曾提议的一项修订机制 现在搁置了 会将这个篱笆 指 安全港 规则 凿开一个洞 一个更加直接的担忧是 经济衰退背景下各方争夺利益之音不绝于耳 比如 提供抵押贷 款服务的银行不情愿削减本金 即便是那么做让借款者和投资者获益 原因在于这将使第 二抵押权贷款在银行账簿上显示为资产减记 一位投资者把抵押贷款证券化比喻成 阶级斗 争 虽然美国银行决定对数量有限的贷款偿还本金 预示着可能会广泛的停火 对于大多数投资者而言 最令人不悦的一个因素是挂在房利美和房地美上的问号 两房自 2008 年 9 月份就被美国政府接管了 除非两房所扮演的角色早被澄清 否则房贷市场的未 来现状以及私人竞争者的面临机遇仍是个未知数 在本周的国会听证会上 美国财长蒂莫 西 盖特纳 Timothy Geithner 说 他将致力于鼓励私人资本重返市场 重组两房 但他未 透露具体信息 一银行家认为 考虑到这种不确定性 现在只有疯子才会加大证券化的力 度 第三课 压在肩上的重担 SUPPORTERS of Mayawati a member of India s downtrodden castes who isnow chief minister of Uttar Pradesh India s most populous state showtheir appreciation by offering her garlands to wear around her neck The one presented to her at an event earlier this month was enormous It was estimated to weigh 65kg according to the Times of India Thegarland was made not of marigolds but of crisp 1 000 rupee 22 notes 出身贱民阶层的玛雅瓦蒂目前是印度人口最多邦 北方邦的首席部长 她的支持者献给 她花环并戴在她的脖子上以示敬意 印度时报报道 本月早些时候献给给她的一个花环硕 大无比 据说有 65 千克之重 但那个花环不是由金盏花编织 而是面额为 1000 卢比 每 张约合 22 美元 的新钞扎制而成 That is as good a sign as any that money is too easy in India Consumerprices for agricultural workers among whom Mayawati has hersupporters rose by 16 5 in the year to February Wholesale prices which the central bank watches more closely rose by9 9 over the same period That prompted the Reserve Bank of India RBI to raise interest rates on March 19th by 0 25 percentage points without waiting for its scheduled meeting 这种情景作为钱在印度已经不值钱了的迹象再好不过了 对那些农工 其中不乏玛雅瓦蒂 的支持者 而言 消费品价格在截至 2 月的年度里 上涨了 16 5 而印度央行密切监控 的批发价格同期上涨了 9 9 这也促使印度储备银行等不及召开原定会议 而于 3 月 19 日将利率上调 0 25 个百分点 The central bank s decision follows rate hikes by the central banks ofAustralia Malaysia and Vietnam The RBI perhaps should have beatenthem to the turn But like other Asian central banks it was nervous ofraising rates while America s rates were on the floor It also blamedrising prices on the worst monsoon since 1972 which hurt the harvestof foods that weigh so heavily in India s inflation indices especiallyits four measures of consumer prices In those circumstances thecentral bank s duty is not to stop a one time jump in prices It isonly to prevent this jump spilling over into broader inflation creating expectations of future price rises that can becomeself fulfilling 印度央行做出决定之前 澳大利亚 马来西亚和越南等国的央行纷纷采取加息政策 印度 储备银行本应在这些国家之前提息 但同其他亚洲国家的央行一样 在美国依然维持利率 触底的情况下 对加息心有顾虑 印度央行也将价格上涨归咎于印度遭受的 1972 年以来雨 量最少的雨季 雨量骤减导致作物歉收 而作物收成的好坏很大程度上左右着印度的通胀 指数 其中在四项衡量消费品价格的指标上更为突出 在目前复杂的形势里 央行的职责 不是阻止价格的一次性上涨 而只应是防止价格上涨蔓延至更广的领域 以期价格上涨在 未来自我实现 Such a spillover is now visible In a statement accompanying the raterises the RBI noted that wholesale prices of non food manufacturedgoods which had fallen by 0 4 in the year to November were nowrising by 4 3 A survey by Hewitt Associates suggests that employerswill raise salaries by 10 6 this year compared with a 6 6 rise in2009 And in an article in Economic and Political Weekly an Indianjournal Rajiv Kumar of the Indian Council for Research onInternational Economic Relations and his colleagues note that riceretailers charged a markup of 12 over the wholesale price in December2009 compared with 8 a year earlier They believe this is suggestiveof the hoarding that politicians like Mayawati love to blame forhigher prices 目前通胀蔓延的态势显而易见 印度储备银行宣布加息的同时 在一份声明中指出 非农 作物制成品的批发价格在去年 11 月曾下降了 0 4 而现在已经上涨了 4 3 翰威特咨询 公司的一项调查结果显示 今年工资上涨幅度预计为 10 6 而 2009 年这一数字为 6 6 印度著名杂志 经济和政治周刊 刊发的一篇文章中 印度国际经济关系研究所的 拉杰夫 库马尔及同事注意到 2009 年大米零售商在批发价的基础之上提价 12 而上一年 这一数字还是 8 他们认为这很容易让人联想到商家 囤积居奇 玛雅瓦蒂这样的政治 家喜欢指责其是导致高价格的罪魁祸首 Having never fallen as steeply as elsewhere in Asia India s wholesaleprices are now rising faster than anywhere except Thailand see chart India is at one extreme says Robert Prior Wandesforde of HSBC Elsewhere he says the upward swing in the global price of commoditiessuch as oil food and metals is beginning to show up in broader pricesbut the inflationary pressure is not remotely like 2008 虽然印度物价的跌速从未像亚洲其他国家那样急剧 但是批发价格的增速却仅次于泰国 见图表 汇丰银行亚洲经济学家罗伯特 普赖尔 旺德斯弗德表示 印度的价格水平正 处于一个极端 他说 其他国家也开始显现价格上涨的态势 如石油 食品及钢铁等初级 商品的价格在全球范围都出现上扬 但目前的通胀压力根本无法和 2008 相提并论 In that year commodity prices were rising much faster and Asia s economies were wound much tighter After several quarters of robust growth industrial production hascaught back up with its long term trend in all Asian countries exceptJapan Singapore and Malaysia according to HSBC In 2008 it was farabove this trend Under those conditions firms passed higher costsonto consumers quite promptly 2008 年初级商品价格的增速远远快于现在 亚洲各经济体的政策也更加密不可分 据汇丰 银行透露 经过了几个季度的强劲增长 除日本 新加坡和马来西亚以外亚洲各国的工业 生产水平逐渐赶上长期发展趋势 08 年工业产值高于长期趋势 在这些情况下 企业迅速 将较高的成本转嫁到了消费者身上 Mr Prior Wandesforde believes headline inflationin Asia will peak soon Having doubled last year oil prices would haveto double again to maintain the same rate of increase he points out But that does not mean Asian central banks can rest easy Given thelags that afflict monetary policy they must set rates today for theAsian economy of 18 months from now Their policies still reflectnervousness about a relapse in America and Europe They areconsequently too loose for a region that is recovering so briskly 旺德斯弗德认为亚洲的广义通货膨胀率将很快达到峰