巴菲特最著名的演讲

巴菲特最著名的演讲巴菲特最著名的演讲 价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场 每个人都期望自己能成功 但是我们后来者的成功建立在大师的肩膀上才能少走弯路 才能有所突破 自然科学的发展也证明了这一点 就像爱因斯坦不可能出现在 原始社会的 部落中一样 原始社会没有发现相对论的基础 也不会出现这么伟大的科学家了 人类发 展的历史永远是螺旋式的上升 可以有反复 甚至有倒退 向上 的趋势将永远不变 直到 最后的崩溃 崩溃的结果是另一个智慧生命的开始 宇宙间的一切都是周而复始 有些朋友会说 前人的东西往往是不对的 是应该批判的 但是我们能够批判的依据 和思想从哪里来 不要告诉我 你从没受过人类的教育 就能够批判 其实也是来自于前 人思想的积累 希望朋友们能认真的读 如果能有所收获也就达到目的了 能够突破的话 就要恭喜你了 巴菲特最著名的演讲 价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场巴菲特最著名的演讲 价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场 每个价值投资人的投资业绩都来自于利用企业股票市场价格与其内在价值之间的差异 巴菲特 价值投资策略最终要归根于本杰明 格雷厄姆 Benjamin Graham 的思想 1934 年 年底 他与戴维 多德 David Dodd 合作完成了他酝酿已久的 证券分析 Security Analysis 这部划时代的著作标志着证券分析业和价值投资思想的诞生 这本巨著在过 去 70 年间共发行了五版 被誉为投资者的 圣经 纽约证券分析协会强调 格雷厄姆 对于投资的意义就像欧几里得对于几何学 达尔 文对于生物进化论一样重要 格雷厄姆 给这座令人惊叹而为之却步的城市 股票市 场绘制了第一张可以依赖的地图 他为价值投资奠定了方 XX 的基础 而在此之前 股票投 资与赌博几乎毫无差别 价值投资没有格雷厄姆 就如同共产 主义没有马克思 原则性 将不复存在 人们通常认为是格雷厄姆确立了证券分析的原则 所以格雷厄姆被尊称为 现代证券分析之父 1984 年 在哥伦比亚大学纪念格雷厄姆与多德合著的 证券分析 出版 50 周年的庆 祝活动中 巴菲特 这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了 A 的最优 秀的学生进行了一次演讲 他在演讲中回顾了 50 年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策 略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实 总结归纳出价值投资 策略的精髓 在投资界具有非常 大的影响力 编者 格雷厄姆 多德都市的超级投资者们 作为巴菲特最著名的演讲名留青史 广为流 传 巴菲特在中国十周年纪念八 从英文原版入手 尽可能罗列相关资料推出此次中英文 对照的饕餮盛宴 敬请各位入席 格雷厄姆格雷厄姆 多德都市的超级投资者们多德都市的超级投资者们 THETHE SUPERINVESTORSSUPERINVESTORS OFOF GRAHAM AND DODDSVILLEGRAHAM AND DODDSVILLE 巴菲特 1984 年在哥伦比亚大学的著名演讲 年在庆祝格雷罕姆与多德合著的 证券分析 发行 周年大会上 巴菲特 这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了 A 的最优秀的学生进行了一次 题为 格雷厄姆 多德都市的超级投资者们 The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville 的演讲 在他演讲中回顾了 50 年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略 持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实 总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓 在投资界具有非常大 的影响力 THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM AND DODDSVILLE Tilsonfunds EDITOR S NOTE This article is an edited transcript of a talk given at Columbia University in 1984 commemorating the fiftieth anniversary of Security Analysis written by Benjamin Graham and David L Dodd This specialized volume first introduced the ideas later popularized in The Intelligent Investor Buffett s essay offers a fascinating study of how Graham s disciples have used Graham s value investing approach to realize phenomenal success in the stock market Is the Graham and Dodd look for values with a significant margin of safety relative to prices approach to security analysis out of date Many of the professors who write textbooks today say yes They argue that the stock market is efficient that is that stock prices reflect everything that is known about a company s prospects and about the state of the economy There are no undervalued stocks these theorists argue because there are smart security analysts who utilize all available information to ensure unfailingly appropriate prices Investors who seem to beat the market year after year are just lucky If prices fully reflect available information this sort of investment adeptness is ruled out writes one of today s textbook authors 格雷厄姆与多德追求 价值远超过价格的安全保障 这种证券分析方法是否已经过 时 目前许多撰写教科书的教授认为如此 他们认为 股票市场是有效率的市场 换言之 股票价格已经充分反应了公司一切己知的事实以及整体经济情况 这些理论家认为 市场 上没有价格偏低的股票 因为聪明的证券分析师将运用全部的既有 资讯 以确保适当的价 格 投资者能经年累月地击败市场 纯粹是运气使然 如果价格完全反应既有的资讯 则这类的投资技巧将不存在 一位现今教科书的作 者如此与写道 Well maybe But I want to present to you a group of investors who have year in and year out beaten the Standard if b 215 winners were left after 20 days and if c you found that 40 came from a particular zoo in Omaha you would be pretty sure you were on to something So you would probably go out and ask the zookeeper about what he s feeding them whether they had special exercises what books they read and who knows what else That is if you found any really extraordinary concentrations of success you might want to see if you could identify concentrations of unusual characteristics that might be causal factors 然而 我必须说明 前述事例和我即将提出 的案例 两者之间存在着若干重大差异 旨先 如果 a 你所选择的 2 25 亿只猩猩的分布状况大致上和美国的人口分布相同 如果 b 经过 20 天的竞赛 只剩下 215 只赢家 如果 c 你发现其中有 40 只猩猩来自于奥玛哈 的某个动物园 则其中必有蹊跷 于是 你会询问猩猩管理员各种问题 它们吃什么饲料 是否做特殊的运动 阅读什么书籍 换言之 如果你发现成功案例有非比寻常的集中现 象 则你希望判定此异常的特色是否是成功的原因 Scientific inquiry naturally follows such a pattern If you were trying to analyze possible causes of a rare type of cancer with say 1 500 cases a year in the United States and you found that 400 of them occurred in some little mining town in Montana you would get very interested in the water there or the occupation of those afflicted or other variables You know it s not random chance that 400 come from a small area You would not necessarily know the causal factors but you would know where to search 科学的调查也遵循此一形态 如果你试图分析某种罕见的癌症原因 例如 美国每 年只有 1500 个病例 而你发现蒙大拿州的某个矿区小镇便产生 400 个病例 则你必然对 当地的饮水 病患的职业或其他种种变数产生兴趣 你知道 在 个小镇中发生 400 个病 例 绝不是随机因素所造成 虽然你未必了解病因 但你知道从哪里着手调查 I submit to you that there are ways of defining an origin other than geography In addition to geographical origins there can be what I call an intellectual origin I think you will find that a disproportionate number of successful coin flippers in the investment world came from a very small intellectual village that could be called Graham and Doddsville A concentration of winners that simply cannot be explained by chance can be traced to this particular intellectual village 除了地理国家 还有其他方式可以界定起源 除了地理的起源 还有我所谓 智力的 起源 我认为各位将在投资领域发现 不 成比例的铜板投掷赢家来自于一个极小的智力 村庄 它可以称为 格雷厄姆多德都市 这个特殊智力村存在着许多赢家 这种集中现 象绝非巧合所能够解释 Conditions could exist that would make even that concentration unimportant Perhaps 100 people were simply imitating the coin flipping call of some terribly persuasive personality When he called heads 100 followers automatically called that coin the same way If the leader was part of the 215 left at the end the fact that 100 came from the same intellectual origin would mean nothing You would simply be identifying one case as a hundred cases Similarly let s assume that you lived in a strongly patriarchal society and every family in the United States conveniently consisted of ten members Further assume that the patriarchal culture was so strong that when the 225 million people went out the first day every member of the family identified with the father s call Now at the end of the 20 day period you would have 215 winners and you would find that they came from only 21 5 families Some naive types might say that this indicates an enormous hereditary factor as an explanation of successful coin flipping But of course it would have no significance at all because it would simply mean that you didn t have 215 individual winners but rather 21 5 randomly distributed families who were winners 在某些情况下 即使非比寻常的集中现象也可能不重要 或许有 100 个只是模仿某一 位极具说服力的领导者 而依其主张来猜测铜板的投掷结果 当他猜正面 100 个追随者 也会自动地做相同的猜测 如果这一位领导者是属于最后 215 位赢家之一 则这 100 也便 属于同一个智力起源 这项事实便不具有任何意义 因 为 100 个案例实际上只代表一个案 例 同理 假定你生活在一个父权结构极为严密的社会 而美国每一个家庭都恰好以父亲 马首是瞻 20 天之后 你将发现 215 位赢家是来自于 21 5 个家庭 若干天真的分析师可 能因此而认为 成功地猜测钢板投掷的结果 其中具有高度的遗传因素 当然 这实际上 不具有任何意 义 因为你所拥有的不是 215 位个别赢家 而只是 21 5 个随机分布的家庭 In this group of successful investors that I want to consider there has been a common intellectual patriarch Ben Graham But the children who left the house of this intellectual patriarch have called their flips in very different ways They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies yet they have had a combined record that simply cannot be explained by the fact that they are all calling flips identically because a leader is signaling the calls for them to make The patriarch has merely set forth the intellectual theory for making coin calling decisions but each student has decided on his own manner of applying the theory 我所要考虑的这一群成功投资者 共有一位共同的智力族长 本杰明 格雷 厄姆 但是 这些离开此智力家族的孩童 都是依据非常不同的方法猜测他们自己的 铜板 他们各自前往不同的地方 买卖不同的股票和企业 但他们的综合绩 效绝对无法用随机因 素加以解释 他们做相同的猜测 并不是因为领导者下达某一项指令 因此也无法用这种 方式解释他们的表现 族知只提供了猜测铜板的智力理 论 每位学生都必须自行决定如何 运用这项理论 The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham and Doddsville is this they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market Essentially they exploit those discrepancies without the efficient market theorist s concern as to whether the stocks are bought on Monday or Thursday or whether it is January or July etc Incidentally when businessmen buy businesses which is just what our Graham it s simply that the data are there and academicians have worked hard to learn the mathematical skills needed to manipulate them Once these skills are acquired it seems sinful not to use them even if the usage has no utility or negative utility As a friend said to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail 面对图形分 析师所研究的价量行为 我始终感觉惊讶 你是否会仅仅因为某家公司的 市场价格在本周或前一周剧扬 便决定购买该企业呢 在日前电脑化的时代 人们之所以会 大量研究价格与成交量的行为 理由是这两项变数拥有了无数的资料 研究未必是因为其 具任何功用 而只是因为资料既然存在 学术界人士便必须努力学习操作这 些资料所需要 的数学技巧 旦拥有这些技巧 不去运用它们便会带来罪恶感 即使这些技巧的运用没 有任何功用 或只会带来负面功用 也在所不惜 如同一位朋 友所说的 对一位持铁锤的 人来说 每 样事看起来都像是钉子 I think the group that we have identified by a common intellectual home is worthy of study Incidentally despite all the academic studies of the influence of such variables as price volume seasonality capitalization size etc upon stock performance no interest has been evidenced in studying the methods of this unusual concentration of value oriented winners 我认为 这一群具有共同智力起源的投资者非常值得我们研究 虽然学术界不断地对 价格 成交量 季节性 资本规模以及其他变数 研究它们对股票绩效的影响 但这群以 价值为导向赢家的方法却毫不受人关心 I begin this study of results by going back to a group of four of us who worked at Graham Newman Corporation from 1954 through 1956 There were only four I have not selected these names from among thousands I offered to go to work at Graham Newman for nothing after I took Ben Graham s class but he turned me down as overvalued He took this value stuff very seriously After much pestering he finally hired me There were three partners and four of us as the peasant level All four left between 1955 and 1957 when the firm was wound up and it s possible to trace the record of three 关于这一项绩效的研究 我首先要追溯到从 1954 年到 1956 年间 工作于 Greham Newman 公司的四位伙伴 我们总共四个人 我并不是从数以千计的对象中挑选这四个人 在我选修本杰 明 格雷厄姆的课程之后 我要求进人 Graham Newman 公司担任无给职的 工作 但格雷厄姆却以价值高估而拒绝了我的要求 他对价值看得非常严重 经我不断地 恳求 他最后答应雇我 当时公司有三位合伙股东 以及我们四位 学徒 公司结束经 营之后 我们四个人陆续在 1955 年到 1957 年间离开公 司 目前只能够追踪其中三个人的 投资记录 The first example see Table 1 正文不附表格 可参考查询文末所附的英文 PDF 文 件 is that of Walter Schloss Walter never went to college but took a course from Ben Graham at night at the New York Institute of Finance Walter left Graham Newman in 1955 and achieved the record shown here over 28 years Here is what Adam Smith after I told him about Walter wrote about him in Supermoney 1972 第一个案例 正文不附表格 可参考查询文末所附的英文 PDF 文件 是华特 史洛斯 华特从来没有念过大学 但他 在纽约金融协会参加了本杰明 葛雷厄姆的夜间课程 华特 在 1955 年离开 Greham Newman 公司 以下是 亚当 史密斯 在我和他谈论有关华 特的事迹之后 在 超级金钱 Supermoney 1972 年 一书中对他所做的描述 He has no connections or access to useful information Practically no one in Wall Street knows him and he is not fed any ideas He looks up the numbers in the manuals and sends for the annual reports and that s about it 他从来不运用或接触有用的资讯 在华尔街几乎没有人认识他 所以没有人提供他有 关投资的观念 他只参考手册上的数字 并要求企业寄年报给他 情况便是如此 In introducing me to Schloss Warren had also to my mind described himself He never forgets that he is handling other people s money and this reinforces his normal strong aversion to loss He has total integrity and a realistic picture of himself Money is real to him and stocks are real and from this flows an attraction to the margin of safety principle 当华特介绍我们认识时 他曾经描述 他从来没有忘记自己是在管理别人的资金 这 进一步强化了他对于风险的厌恶 他有高尚的品格 并以务实的态度自持 对他来 说 金钱是真实的 股票也真实的 并从此而接受了 安全边际 的原则 Walter has diversified enormously owning well over 100 stocks currently He knows how to identify securities that sell at considerably less than their value to a private owner And that s all he does He doesn t worry about whether it it s January he doesn t worry about whether it s Monday he doesn t worry about whether it s an election year He simply says if a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents something good may happen to me And he does it over and over and over again He owns many more stocks than I do and is far less interested in the underlying nature of the business I don t seem to have very much influence on Walter That s one of his strengths no one has much influence on him 华特的投资组合极为分散 目前拥有的股票远越过 100 支 他了解如何选股 将价格 远低于其价值者出售给私人投资者 这便是他所做的一切 他不担心目前是不是一月份 不在乎今天是不是星期一 也不关心今 年是不是大选年 他的想法非常单纯 如果某家公 司值一美元 若我能够以 40 美分买进 我迟早会获利 他便是如此不断地行动 他所持有 的股票种类远比我的多 而且比我更不关心企业的本质 我对华特似乎没有太大的影响 力 这是他的长处之 没有人能够对他产生足够的影响力 The second case is Tom Knapp who also worked at Graham Newman with me Tom was a chemistry major at Princeton before the war when he came back from the war he was a beach bum And then one day he read that Dave Dodd was giving a night course in investments at Columbia Tom took it on a noncredit basis and he got so interested in the subject from taking that course that he came up and enrolled at Columbia Business School where he got the MBA degree He took Dodd s course again and took Ben Graham s course Incidentally 35 years later I called Tom to ascertain some of the facts involved here and I found him on the beach again The only difference is that now he owns the beach 第二个案例是汤姆 科纳普 他曾经和我一起在 Greham Newman 公司工作 汤姆于 大战之前曾在普林斯顿大学主修化学 大战结束之后 他经常在海滩游荡 某一天 他得 知大卫 多德将在可伦比亚大学开夜间投资课程 汤姆以旁听方式选修该课程 之后他对 投资学科产生了浓厚的兴趣 于是正式注册进入哥伦比亚大学商学院 并且 获得了 MBA 学 位 35 年之后 我拨电话给汤姆 确定某些有关此一主题的事 我发现他仍然在海滩游荡 惟 的差别是 他目前拥有一片海滩 In 1968 Tom Knapp and Ed Anderson also a Graham disciple along with one or two other fellows of similar persuasion formed Tweedy Browne Partners and their investment results appear in Table 2 Tweedy Browne built that record with very wide diversification They occasionally bought control of businesses but the record of the passive investments is equal to the record of the control investments 在 1968 年 汤姆与艾德 安德生 也是葛拉汉的信徒 以及其他一 两位有共同 信念的人 组成了帝地布朗合伙公司 帝地布朗合伙公司的投资高度分散 他们偶尔会从 事控制股权的投资 但其被动式的投资绩效约略等于控权式投资的表现 Table 3 describes the third member of the group who formed Buffett Partnership in 1957 The best thing he did was to quit in 1969 Since then in a sense Berkshire Hathaway has been a continuation of the partnership in some respects There is no single index I can give you that I would feel would be a fair test of investment management at Berkshire But I think that any way you figure it it has been satisfactory 表 3 是格雷厄姆 纽曼公司第三位员工的投资业绩记录 他在 1957 年成立巴菲特合伙 公司 他做出的最明智的决策是 在 1969 年结束合伙公司 从此之后 伯克夏 哈撒韦公司 在某种程度上成为合伙公司的延续 我无法给各位单一的指数 用以合理地测试伯克夏公 司的投资管 理 但是 我认为各位不论如何考验它 它的表现一直都令人满意 Table 4 shows the record of the Sequoia Fund which is managed by a man whom I met in 1951 in Ben Graham s class Bill Ruane After getting out of Harvard Business School he went to Wall Street Then he realized that he needed to get a real business education so he came up to take Ben s course at Columbia where we met in early 1951 Bill s record from 1951 to 1970 working with relatively small sums was far better than average When I wound up Buffett Partnership I asked Bill if he would set up a fund to handle all our partners so he set up the Sequoia Fund He set it up at a terrible time just when I was quitting He went right into the two tier market and all the difficulties that made for comparative performance for value oriented investors I am happy to say that my partners to an amazing degree not only stayed with him but added money with the happy result shown here 表四是红杉基金经理人比尔 卢昂的投资业绩记录 我在 1951 年格雷厄姆的讲座中 认识他 哈佛商学院毕业之后 他进入华尔街 稍后 他发觉需要接受真正的商业教育 于是参加了格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学开办的讲 座 我们便相逢于 1951 年初 从 1951 年到 1970 年间 比尔所管理的资金规模相当小 绩效却远比大盘来得好 当我结束巴菲特合伙 公司的业务时 我要 求比尔成立 个基金公司 来管理我们合伙股东的资金 他于是成立 了红杉基金 他成立基金的时机非常不利 他面临两个层次的市场 以及以价值为导向的 投资者 相当难以运作的情况 我十分乐于提及一点 我的合伙股东不仅继续委托他管理 还投入更多的资金 而且对他的表现十分赞赏 There s no hindsight involved here Bill was the only person I recommended to my partners and I said at the time that if he achieved a four point per annum advantage over the Standard they are the only two I have influenced In both cases I have steered them toward value oriented managers Very very few pension funds are managed from a value standpoint Table 8 is the Washington Post Company s Pension Fund It was with a large bank some years ago and I suggested that they would do well to select managers who had a value orientation 表 8 与表 9 的投资业绩记录分别属于我参与的两家退休基金 它们 并非是从我所参与 的十几种退休基金中选择出来的 他是唯一两家我能够影响其投资决策的退休基金 在这 两家基金中 我引导他们转变为价值导向的投资管理人 只胡非常少数的基金是基于价值 进行投资管理的 表 8 是华盛顿邮报公司退休基金 the Washington Post Company s Pension Fund 的投资业绩记录 几年之前 他们委托一家大型银行管理基金 后来 我 建议他们聘请以价值为导向的基金经理 这样能够使投资业绩更好 本段采用 刘建位的 翻译 As you can see overall they have been in the top percentile ever since they made the change The Post told the managers to keep at least 25 percent of these funds in bonds which would not have been necessarily the choice of these managers So I ve included the bond performance simply to illustrate that this group has no particular expertise about bonds They wouldn t have said they did Even with this drag of 25 percent of their fund in an area that was not their game they were in the top percentile of fund management The Washington Post experience does not cover a terribly long period but it does represent many investment decisions by three managers who were not identified retroactively 正如你在投资记录中所看到的那样 从他们更换基金经理之后 其整体投资业绩在所 有基金中 一直名列前茅 华盛顿邮报公司要求基金经理人至少保持 25 的资金投资于债 券 而债券未必是基金经理人的投资选择 因此 我在表中也将其债券投资业绩包括在内 而这些数据表明他们其实并没有什么特别的债券专业技 巧 他们也从未这样吹嘘进自己 虽然有 25 的资金投资于他们并不擅长的债券领域 从而拖累了他们的投资业绩 但其基 金管理业绩水平仍然名列前一百名之 内 华盛顿邮报公司退休基金的投资尽管并没有经过 一个很长的市场低迷时期的考验 但仍然足以证明三位基金经理的许多投资决策并非后见 之明 本段为编辑增 加 采用刘建位的翻译 Table 9 is the record of the FMC Corporation fund I don t manage a dime of it myself but I did in 1974 influence their decision to select value oriented managers Prior to that time they had selected managers much the same way as most larger companies They now rank number one in the Becker survey of pension funds for their size over the period of time subsequent to this conversion to the value approach Last year they had eight equity managers of any duration beyond a year Seven of them had a cumulative record better than the S note their record in years when the general market was weak While they differ greatly in style these investors are mentally always buying the business not buying the stock A few of them sometimes buy whole businesses Far more often they simply buy small pieces of businesses Their attitude whether buying all or a tiny piece of a business is the same Some of them hold portfolios with dozens of stocks others concentrate on a handful But all exploit th