投资美国股票盈利最差10年

投资美国股票盈利最差投资美国股票盈利最差 1010 年年 即将结束的这个十年 可能是美国股市历史上表现最差的十年 The U S stock market is wrapping up what is likely to be its worst decade ever 在有记录以来近两百年的历史里 没有哪个从 0 到 9 的十年 股市的表现像 21 世纪的第 一个十年这么凄惨 In nearly 200 years of recorded stock market history no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s 不管投资哪里 从债券到黄金 甚至是只把现金藏在被褥下 几乎都比投资股市要好 自 1999 年年末以来 受两轮熊市的影响 纽约证券交易所的股票每年平均下跌 0 5 Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress Since the end of 1999 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0 5 a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade 对于利用股市作为存钱养老首要投资途径的普通美国人来讲 这段时期为他们上了一堂课 The period has provided a lesson for ordinary Americans who used stocks as their primary way of saving for retirement 吸引很多投资者进入股市的 是始于上世纪 80 年代早期的那轮牛市 其涨势不断增强 一 直延续到 90 年代 90 年代是史上表现最好的十年 平均每年增长 17 6 但经过 90 年代 之后 股市市值变得过高 企业也削减股息 降低了投资者回报 而在像 2008 年这样的金 融危机中 股市成了一个特别糟糕的投资领地 Many investors were lured to the stock market by the bull market that began in the early 1980s and gained force through the 1990s But coming out of the 1990s the best calendar decade in history with a 17 6 average annual gain stocks simply had gotten too expensive Companies also pared dividends cutting into investor returns And in a time of financial panic like 2008 stocks were a terrible place to invest 2009 年只剩下两星期 据耶鲁大学金融学教授戈茨曼编制的数据 股市从 1999 年年末以 来的跌势 让刚刚过去的 10 个年头成了 19 世纪 20 年代有可靠股市记录以来股市表现最差 的十年 With just two weeks to go in 2009 the declines since the end of 1999 make the last 10 years the worst calendar decade for stocks going all the way back to the 1820s when reliable stock market records begin according to data compiled by Yale University finance professor William Goetzmann 这种跌势超过了 20 世纪 30 年代的 大萧条 时期 30 年代股市以 0 2 的跌幅 成了 21 世 纪以前股市表现最差的十年 最近这个十年的表现 也不及其他经历了金融危机的十年 比如 1907 年金融危机和 1893 年金融危机所处的十年 It edges out the 0 2 decline stocks suffered during the Depression years of the 1930s which up until now held the title of worst decade And it is worse than other decades with financial panics such as in 1907 and 1893 市场研究公司 Ibbotson Associates 首席经济学家甘贝拉表示 过去的 10 年是一个噩梦 表 现真的很差 The last 10 years have been a nightmare really poor for U S stocks said Michele Gambera chief economist at Ibbotson Associates 他说 虽然整个市场趋势是稳步向上的 但过去的十年提醒人们 股市可能会经历长期下 跌 While the overall market trend has been a steady march upward the last decade is a reminder that stocks can decline over long periods of time he said 甘贝拉说 这种情况不经常发生 但发生的可能性是有的 It s not frequent but it can happen Mr Gambera said 这些统计数据在一定程度上存在因为时间计算的问题而产生的失真 这要看 十年 的起止 时间怎么算 止于 1937 年和 1938 年的 十年 股市的表现差过多数 年代 因为它们涵盖 了 1929 年股市触顶 同年 10 月份崩溃的全部影响 To some degree these statistics are a quirk of the calendar based on when the 10 year period starts and finishes The 10 year periods ending in 1937 and 1938 were worse than the most recent calendar decade because they capture the full effect of stocks hitting their peak in 1929 and the October crash of that year Ibbotson 数据显示 从 2000 年到 2009 年 11 月 投资者如果是持有债券的话 回报要好得 多 这段时期 各种类别的债券涨幅达到 5 6 到超过 8 不等 黄金是表现最佳的资产 继 20 世纪 90 年代每年下跌 3 以后 这个十年的年均涨幅达到 15 From 2000 through November 2009 investors would have been far better off owning bonds which posted gains ranging from 5 6 to more than 8 depending on the sector according to Ibbotson Gold was the best performing asset up 15 a year this decade after losing 3 each year during the 1990s 考虑到通货膨胀的影响后 过去这个十年股市的表现显得更差 This past decade looks even worse when the impact of inflation is considered 北卡罗来纳州立大学金融学教授琼斯编制的数据显示 自 1999 年年末以来 经过通胀因素 调整 标准普尔 500 股指平均每年下跌 3 3 他的数据采用了 2009 年的股息预测和截至 11 月份的消费者价格指数 Since the end of 1999 the Standard a 10 return a year would get them up to only 4 4 a year 在过去 10 年里也并非无法从美国股市中赚钱 但回报率与 90 年代时相比就显得太低了 There were ways to make money in U S stocks during the last decade But the returns paled in comparison with those posted in the 1990s 在如今道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数的 30 只成分股中 1999 年底以来只有 13 只上涨 只 有卡特彼勒和联合技术在过去 10 年里翻了一番 Of the 30 stocks today that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average only 13 are up since the end of 1999 and just two Caterpillar Inc and United Technologies Corp doubled over the 10 year span 那么 美国股市什么地方出错了 So what went wrong for the U S stock market 首先 是原来的估价规则出了问题 For starters it turned out that the old rules of valuation matter 理财公司 GMO LLC 的联合创始人格兰瑟姆说 我们进入本世纪时价值被高估得厉害 We came into this decade horribly overpriced said Jeremy Grantham co founder of money managers GMO LLC 按照耶鲁大学教授席勒的估算 1999 年底时 标准普尔 500 指数成分股的市盈率达到了 44 倍 几乎是历史最高水平 相比之下 长期的平均市盈率约为 16 倍 席勒是参照 10 年的 收益跟踪股价水平 In late 1999 the stocks in the S P 500 were trading at about an all time high of 44 times earnings based on Yale professor Robert Shiller s measure which tracks prices compared with 10 year earnings and adjusts for inflation That compares with a long run average of about 16 格兰瑟姆说 在这样的价格上买 你最好相信你在大部分时间里只能得到糟糕的回报 他 的公司 10 年前预测 标准普尔 500 指数在到 2009 年的 10 年间每年会下跌近 2 Buying at those kinds of values you d better believe you re going to get dismal returns for a considerable chunk of time said Mr Grantham whose firm predicted 10 years ago that the S P 500 likely would lose nearly 2 a year in the 10 years through 2009 尽管这 10 年的回报令人失望 如今的股票也并不便宜 按席勒的计算方法 标准普尔指数 目前的市盈率约为 20 倍 Despite the woeful returns this decade stocks today aren t a steal The S P is trading at a price to earnings ratio of about 20 on Mr Shiller s measure 格兰瑟姆认为 美国大盘股高估了约 30 这意味着未来 7 年的回报率应比长期平均回报 率低约 30 这也意味着在考虑通货膨胀因素前 每年的回报率只有 1 6 Mr Grantham thinks U S large cap stocks are about 30 overpriced which means returns should be about 30 less than their long term average for the next seven years That means returns of just 1 6 a year before adding in inflation 股市的另一个障碍是始于上世纪 80 年代后期的股息下降 Another hurdle for the stock market has been the decline in dividends that began in the late 1980s 从长远来看 股息自 1926 年以来在帮助股票达到 9 5 的年平均回报率中发挥了重要作用 但自那年以来 标准普尔 500 股票平均收益率约为 4 琼斯说 这 10 年的平均收益率约 为 1 8 Over the long term dividends have played an im