个人住房贷款的银行风险管理研究-外文文献及翻译.doc

PersonalhousingloantothebankriskmanagementresearchPARTI.ProblemStatementInthispart,IwillgiveadetailedintroductionofIndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaandtheinformationabouttheIndividualhousingloan.Certainly,theproblemformulationisthemostimportantoneIwanttodiscuss.1introductiontoICBCandIssuesIndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaLtd.(ICBC)isthelargestbankintheworldbyprofitandmarketcapitalization.ItisoneChinasBigFourstate-ownedcommercialbanks(theotherthreebeingtheBankofChina,AgriculturalBankofChina,andChinaConstructionBank.ItwasfoundedasalimitedcompanyonJanuary1,1984.AsofMarch2010,ithadassetsofRMB12.55trillion(US$1.9trillion),withover18,000outletsincluding106overseasbranchesandagentsglobally.In2011,itrankednumber7onForbesGlobal2000listofworldsbiggestpubliccompaniesIndustrialandCommercialBankof1991establishedtheDepartmentofrealestatecredit,forindividualhousingcreditbusiness,andmadeaworkerhousingmortgageloanmanagementapproach.1.1IndividualhousingloanIndividualhousingloanofbankcredittotheselfisthesourceoffundsforpersonalloanstopropertybuyers.Alsoknownasthecommercialindividualhousingloans,banksnamearenotthesame,theConstructionBankknownastheindividualhousingloans,industrialandCommercialBankofChinaandAgriculturalBankknownasthepersonalhousingloanguarantee1.2thecreditriskTherealestateindustryisahighriskindustry,housingcreditbusinesshidesthebiggerrisk.Itisthebanksownrisks.Commercialbanksascreditparties,ingroupsthroughtheinternaldivisionofthemutualcooperation,apartofanymismanagementmaycausepotentialrisksintoreality,causedthelossofassets.Creditriskcausedbycharacteristicisthebanksthemselves,butitcanavoid,reduceandpreventthecreditrisk,blemformulationHowtodecreasethecreditrisksofpersonalhousingloanofICBC?3.InterpretationoftheproblemformulationThecreditriskofindividualhousingloanriskishighestamongspecies,includingtheborrowersolvencyriskofinsufficientandguarantorsolvencyrisktwokinds.Ontheloanapplicantforcreditinvestigationisthebankconsumercreditbusinessasanimportantlink.BecauseofChinaspersonalcreditsystemhasnotyetbeenestablished,onthepersonalcreditstatusandlackofreasonablecriteria,thebankcanonlybetotheborrowerunitwrittenproofofincomeandothermaterialsasthebasisofcreditevaluation,itsauthenticity,timelinessisdifficulttodetermine,onthepersonalincomeverificationofhighcost.Individualhousingloansuptoamaximumof30years,insuchalongtimespantotheborrowereconomicstatuswaslastingmonitoring,stageofcommodityhousingpriceshigher,themonthlyrepaymentofprincipalandinterestburdenisheavy,oncetheborrowerunemploymentorregularincometoreducepossibledefaultrisk.Duetothedevelopmentofrealestateindustryisahighrisk,highprofitindustry,developersoperatingstatus,abilitytopayisalsoverydifficulttograsp,itiseasytoproducerisk.PartII.MethodologyIcollecttheinformationanddatawithaIndividualhousingloanbusinessofICBC.IgetsomefinancialdataIcanuseandfindsometheoriestoresolvetheproblems.IusethecomparativeanalysisandtheSTPmethodtotargetandanalyzetheproblems.AndIusesometheoriessuchasMMtheoryandhedgingtheorytoanalyzetheproblemsfacedbyICBC.Inadditional,Iusesomemethodstoanalyzehowtoreducetherisks.PartIII.Analysis1.IntroductionofIcbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanriskmanagement1.1ICBCShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanstatusOnOctober28,2005,industryandcommercebankwasrenamedindustrialandcommercialbankofChinaCo.,LTD.,theoverallreformofthewhollystate-ownedcommercialBanksforjointstockcommercialBanks.OnOctober27,2006,industryandcommercebankAsharesandHshareslistedonsuccess,becomeChinaslargestassets,customerbasethemostextensive,informationizationlevel,businessgrowthofthehighestgoodpublicjointstockcommercialBanks.Attheendof2009,industryandcommercebanktotalassetsof117850.53onehundredmillionyuan,totalliabilitiesll1,06.119billionyuan,totalmarketcapitalisationof$269billion,theworldsfirstlistedBanks;Thatyear3094.54businessincomeisonehundredmillionyuan,anetprofitof1293.50onehundredmillionyuan,theworldsmostprofitablebankstraight;Badloansoutstandingandbadloansforthefirsttenyearskeepdoubledown,defectiveratereducedfrom1.54%to;Capitaladequacyratioandcorecapitalratioswere12.36%and9.9096,intheprocessofrapidbusinessgrowthstillkeepagoodadequatecapitallevel.Chinapersonalloans12068.50onehundredmillionyuan,up45.5%,withtheincreaseof2768.70personalhousingloanonehundredmillionyuan,up46.3%,andallofthefirstone.Industryandcommercebankindividualloanbalancestheproportionofthetotaloutstandingbalanceoftheloansisrisingyearbyyear,theendof09hasreachedto21.1%,amongthemapersonalhousingloanbalanceofallpersonalloanbalancewas72.4%.PersonalhousingloanTheICBCShanghaibranchheadofficeisoneofthebranch,theheadofficeisinthesysteminthetopofeverybusiness,inrecentyearstheheadofficesystemcomprehensiveassessmenthasrankedtop.BytheendofDecember2009,icbcShanghaibranchoflocaldeposit,loanbalancerespectivelyfor$954.2billionand$369.5billionrespectively18.93%and20.43%thanatthegrowth,includingpersonalhousingloanbalanceof55billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof36.3%,accountingfor14.9%ofallloans;Allthebadloansoutstanding4.084billionyuan,defectiverate1.11%,12consecutiveyearsrealizedthedoubledown,includingpersonalhousingloandefectiverate0.24%,muchlowerthansellingloansdefectiverate;Middlebusinessincomeis4.818billionyuanandthegrowthrate35%,andrecordthesameperiod;Bookprofitis15.184billionyuan,overfulfilledyear-round.IcbcShanghaibranchtotradeleaders,optimumsystem,theworldfirst-classforstrategicdevelopmenttarget,inrecentyearstotheformidablestrength,prudentbusiness,ofthespiritofinnovation,throughthereasonablelayoutofthemarketingnetwork,awiderangeofhighqualitycustomerbase,obviousadvantagesofinnovativeproducts,advancedelectronicbankingservices,andrealizethefastgrowththescaleofoperation,theprofitlevelleapinanewstage,andthequalityoftheassetsreachedanewlevelinShanghai,Banksofinaleadinglevel,includingpersonalhousingloanbusinessdevelopmentespeciallyrapidly,2009icbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanbalanceandincrementofthetradeinShanghaithanwere14.06%and14.71%inthefirsthalfyearof2201accountsforincrementalthanroseto23.1l%icbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanbusinessoveralldevelopmentsituationInthe2007years,icbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanbegantoreasonstabilising,Butgrowthisnotbig,totheendof2008attheendof2005torestorebasiclevel.Beginningin2009,asAllnationalencouragespendingandinvestmentpolicyinfluence,therealestatemarketsupplyanddemandandthepresentsituationofthetwopopular,peoplessilverBankofindividualhousingloaninterestratepolicyfurtherrelax,thereforeicbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanrealizedTheunprecedentedgrowthsituation,totheendof2010isexpectedtopersonalhousingloanbalancecanreach750Onehundredmillionyuan,personalloansoutstandingexpectedtoexceed80billionyuan.1.1.2ICBCShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanbusinessfeatures1.TheindividualhousingloanbalancestheproportionofamountofpersonalloansisontheriseFromthetable1.2shows,icbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanbalancepersonalloanbalancesoftheproportionofbasicbetween90%95%,andsince2007theproportionoftherisingtrend.DuetopersonalhousingloanloanUSESclear,thebankloanfundscanbedirectlyintodevelopersorthesellersaccounttocontrolthehousingloantocapitalflows,andShanghaibranchhasrichrealestatedevelopmentloanresources,soinrecentyearshasbeentheShanghaibranchofpersonalhousingloanasapersonalloanbusinessdevelopmenttheimportantdirection,andconstantlycompressionpersonalcomprehensiveconsumerloans,personalcarloans,personalbusinessloans,andotherconsumerloanbusiness.2.Second-handhousingloansfastgrowthInrecentyears,icbcShanghaibranchsecond-handhousingloanstotherapidgrowthoftheendofJunebytheyear2010,usedapersonalhousingloanbalancehasreachednearly31.8billionyuan,istheendof2005thebalanceof4.5times,accountingforpersonalhousingloanbalanceby2005theshareofjumpedfrom17.7%47.6%,alreadypresentandabasicpersonalhousingloandividetheworldsituation,andaccordingtothetrendofincreaseinthefirsthalfof2010,bytheendof2010islikelytomorethanapersonalhousingloanbalances.IcbcShanghaibranchsecond-handindividualhousingloanwaspartlyduetotherapidgrowthoftheShanghaihousingmarketinrecentyearstheabnormalprosperity,ontheotherhandisShanghaibranchandalotofrealestateagentestablishedcooperativerelations,accordingtostatistics,untilJune2010,since2009haveloanscooperationagencyhasreached185ICBCShanghaibranchofcreditassetqualityimprovingtrendspresenttheyearafteryear,especiallysincelistingreform,icbcShanghaibranchofcreditassetqualityhastheadvancedinternationallevelofbank.Thefigure3.2shows,personalloanassetqualitybetterthancorporateloans,bytheendofJune2010,personalloansnon-conformingrateisonly0.38%,farbelowthelegalpersonloandefectiverate1.01%,andpersonalloansduetohighqualitypersonalhousingloanassetquality.Personalhousingloansaccountedformorethan90%ofpersonalloans,thedirectimpactonthequalityoftheassetsofthewholeindividualloannonconformities.8Figure1.2theicbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanconstitute(amountunits:tenthousandyuan)ICBCShanghaibranchofcreditassetqualityimprovingtrendspresenttheyearafteryear,especiallysincelistingreform,icbcShanghaibranchofcreditassetqualityhastheadvancedinternationallevelofbank.Thefigure3.2shows,personalloanassetqualitybetterthancorporateloans,bytheendofJune2010,personalloansnon-conformingrateisonly0.38%,farbelowthelegalpersonloandefectiverate1.01%,andpersonalloansduetohighqualitypersonalhousingloanassetquality.Personalhousingloansaccountedformorethan90%ofpersonalloans,thedirectimpactonthequalityoftheassetsofthewholeindividualloannonconformities.Figure1.3theicbcShanghaibranchthequalityofloanassetsFromthetable1.3know,icbcShanghaibranchindevelopingapersonalhousingloanbusinessatthesametimealwaysadheretoexecutealltheriskmanagementmeasures,andmaintaintheindividualhousingloanqualitythequalityoftheassets,andbadloansandbadbalancerealizethedoubledown,andbytheendof2006respectivelythe$167.57millionand0.45%lowerin2010totheendofJune137.39millionyuanand0.21%.2.icbcShanghaibranchpersonalhousingloanriskmanagementpresentsituationThefirstpartofadetailedanalysisontheicbcShanghaibranchofindividualhousingloanmainrisksources,secondlyintroducedtherelatedriskassessmentindexes,thelastkeytointroducetheindividualhousingloanriskmanagementaspectsofthefourmarkedcharacteristics:theorganization,systemconstruction,theoverallprocessmanagement,electronicinformationdegreeishigher.21whatarethesourcesofpersonalhousingloanriskFromthepersonalhousingloanbusinessprocesstosee,thisbusinessisnotonlyrelatedtothesalescontract,signabuildingtoapplyforloans,bankloansurveyandexamination,loansofthecontract,todealwithguarantytoregister,insurance,notarization,loans,loanexaminationnumerouslinks,theyalsoinvolvebuildingbuyersandsellers,agency,Banks,insurancecompanies,etc.Therefore,manyfactorscancauseindividualhousingloanrisks,thecausesofthecomplexandchangeable.2.1.1comesfromtheborrowerFromtheriskoftheborrower,bankindividualhousingloanisthemostmainsourcesofrisk,ismainlyreferstotheborrowerofthemoralriskandreimbursementabilityandreimbursementintendtochangebringstherisk.1.Theborrowerofmoralhazard.Becauseatpresentourcountrypersonalcreditregistrysystemisnotperfect,asymmetricinformation,andthattheindividualsvariousdishonestbehaviorshouldnotpunished,sothebankloanstotheexaminationandapprovalofthephenomenonoccurswhentheadverseselection.IcbcShanghaibranchatpresentinthedisposalprocessofbadloanspersonal,foundthattheborrowerofthemoralriskoftheembodiedinthefollowingaspects:oneistheborrowertoprovidefakedocuments,ortostealotherpeopleidcardorpropertyrightcardforfalseestatetrade,usingthenameofotherstoapplyforaloantomaliciouscheatingbankloans;2itistheborrowertoprovidefalseproofofearningsortaxreturn,intentionallyimprovepersonalincome,inordertoachievethebanklendingrequirements;Threeistheborrowermaliciousexploitinglegalloopholes,manymaliciousescapebankdebtborrowersandtheraisingoftheirfamilymembershavenootherplace,orman-madethemselvesandtheirfamilieslivewithoutraisingthefactthatother,resolutedontmoveoutoftheirhomes,thebankevenwinlegalproceedings,thecourtisnotthemortgageofexecution.Theabovesituationmostbytheborrowerandrealestatedevelopersorpropertyintermediarycompanycommoncollusionoperation.2.Theborrowerreimbursementabilitytodrop,alsocalledtheforceddefault.Inrealbusiness,themorecommonsituation:Firstistheborrowerunemploymentorbusinessfailure.Theonceunabletonormalservicing,willgivethebankcausedgreatrisk.Second.itistheborrowersownorimmediaterelativesamajordisease,bankloanswillfacecanberetrieved,andthecourtdoesnotcarryouttherisk.Threeistheborrowerviolatethelawsentenced,oncebytheborrowerviolatethelawbejudicialauthoritiesheldorsentence,theloandefaultratealmostcloseto100%.3.WhenTheborrowerspaymentsintendtochange.Theborrowerspaymentswillrepaytheloanisreferredtothesubjectiveinitiative,istoensurethatthemainfactorsofsafetybankloans,whentheborrowermaliciousescapethebehaviorofexistingdebt,theBanksoftenneedtospendalotofmanpowerandtimeandfinancialresourcestosettlethepartoftheloanrisk.Whentheborrowermarriage(orlove)brokenrelationships.Bankloansindailydemandedoverdueprocess,oftenwillmeettheborrowerisnotwillingtoaccepttheobligationofreimbursement.AslongasWhenthereisapartywouldnotowingontheloan,andtheotherpartyinmostcasesisalsonotwillingtoloanpayments,evenifonepartywillingtoloanpayments,usuallyinacertainproportionowingontheloan,notafullreturn,sothebankwillstilltakegreaterrisks.Andthemarriageofthepropertyofthesegmentationundergeneralismoredifficult,thebankalsoprovidesborrowerscantdochange,sointhatcase,unlessthepartiescantalkthingsoversolvethepropertyrightofthebuildingbelongsandloanproblems,otherwisethebankcanonlyberesolvedthroughlegalchannels.Whenitisrationaltobreachofcontract.Whenhomepricestofallorrapidlyrisinginterestratestoalargerextent,continuetorepaymentofcostmorethangiveupreimbursementofincome,theborrowerwillberationalbreach.Themostactivebreachmayoccurintheloancontractafterthesigningofthefirsttwoyears,asthedefaultopportunitycostislower,thelossofjusthead,transactioncostandpartoftheloanprincipalandinterest2.1.2Fromrealestatedevelopers1.RealestatedevelopersfraudWhenrealestatedevelopersfunds,andthencantobtainbankdevelopmentloan,oftenusedintentionallytoimprovemortgagepricesdowntoopenorfalsestartstohelpborrowersreceiptdiddlebankloans.2.RealestatedeveloperswiththeotherbadbehaviorOfcoursedevelopersinadditiontothefraudrisk,andyoumaybebecauseofhisbadbehaviortriggerloanrisk.Forexample,thebuildinglousytail,developersofvolumeandwalk;Developersillegalbuilding,whichcoulddealwithproduceevidence2.1.3FromsecondhandtheroomthesellerTheriskofthesellerfromsecondhandroom,ismainlyreferstothesellerforbankcapitalfingerprintsecondhandtheroomandnottherealbusinessofarisk.Thiskindofsituationcommonlyknownasthereal,namelyhearttothesellerofsecondhandtheroomoftenstilllivedinthehouse,andthehouseshaveloansbackbythevendorratherthantheborrower.Thisismainlyduetothecustomermanagerinloansurveyonlypayingattentiontochecktheborrowerwhenreimbursementability,ignoreunderstandtheauthenticityoftransactionsinthehouse.2.1.4Fromincreasedriskofintermediaryinstitutions.Fromtheorganizationsriskas