美联储主席耶伦新闻发布会翻译稿(高级笔译)

Transcript of Chair Yellens Press Conference Opening Remarks June 15, 2016 CHAIR YELLEN: Good afternoon. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. This accommodative policy should support further progress toward our statutory objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Based on the economic outlook, the Committee continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time are likely to be consistent with achieving and maintaining our objectives. However, recent economic indicators have been mixed, suggesting that our cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy remains appropriate. As always, our policy is not on a preset course and if the economic outlook shifts, the appropriate path of policy will shift correspondingly. I will come back to our policy decision, but first I will review recent economic developments and the outlook. 下午好，今天开放市场委员会保持联邦基准利率在0.25%至0.5%区间。宽松的财政政策将进一步支撑就业最大化和物价稳定的法定目标。基于经济预期，委员会继续认为未来联邦基准利率逐步加息步伐将和各种经济指标目标的实现保持一致。然而，最近的经济指标好坏不一，这表明我们采取谨慎的货币政策是合适的。和往常一样，美联储的政策并不是预定好的，如果经济预期发生转变，适当的政策路径将会相应变化。首先让我回顾一下最近的经济发展和预期，然后回到今天的政策决定。Economic growth was relatively weak late last year and early this year. Some of the factors weighing on growth were expected. For example, exports have been soft, reflecting subdued foreign demand and the earlier appreciation of the dollar. Also, activity in the energy sector has obviously been hard hit by the steep drop in oil prices since mid-2014. But the slowdown in other parts of the economy was not expected. In particular, business investment outside of energy was particularly weak during the winter, and appears to have remained so into the spring. In addition, growth in household spending slowed noticeably early in the year despite solid increases in household income as well as relatively high levels of consumer sentiment and wealth. Fortunately, the first-quarter slowdown in household spending appears to have been temporary; indicators for the second quarter have so far pointed to a sizable rebound. This recovery is a key factor supporting the Committees expectation that overall economic activity will expand at a moderate pace over the next few years. Despite lackluster economic growth, the job market continued to improve early in the year. During the first quarter, job gains averaged nearly 200,000 per month, just a bit slower than last years pace. And the unemployment rate held near 5 percent even though notably more people were actively looking for work. However, more recently the pace of improvement in the labor market appears to have slowed markedly. Job gains in April and May are estimated to have averaged only about 80,000 per month. And while the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in May, that decline occurred because fewer people reported that they were actively seeking work. 去年末和今年初的美国经济增长相对较弱。部分原因已被预测到，比如出口下滑，国外需求低迷以及美元升值是主要原因。能源行业的活力深受2014年的原油暴跌的打击。但是经济其它领域的下滑原因未被预计到，尤其是去年冬季的能源行业之外商业投资尤其低迷，似乎保持到了今年春天。此外，今年早期家庭支出增长明显放缓，尽管家庭收入增长稳定以及消费者情绪和财富保持较高水准。幸运的是，第一季度的家庭消费下滑似乎是暂时的。目前为止的第二季度指标已经大幅反弹。家庭消费的恢复是支撑委员会对整体经济活动将会在未来几年保持温和增长预期的关键因素。尽管经济增长缓慢，但是今年的就业市场持续改善。第一季度，每月就业增长接近20万，增长速度比去年步伐稍慢。虽然更多的人在积极找工作，失业率仍保持在近5%。然而，劳动力市场改善步伐似乎大幅减缓。4月和5月就业增长只有8万。而5月的失业率下滑至4.7%,失业率下降的原因是申报积极找工作的人减少。A broader measure of unemployment that includes individuals who want and are available to work but have not searched recently as well as people who are working part time but would rather work full time has flattened out. On a more positive note, average hourly earnings increased 2-1/2 percent over the past 12 months-a bit faster than in earlier years and a welcome indication that wage growth may finally be picking up. Although recent labor market data have, on balance, been disappointing, its important not to overreact to one or two monthly readings. The Committee continues to expect that the labor market will strengthen further over the next few years. That said, we will be watching the job market carefully. 委员会预期劳动力市场在接下来几年将进一步加强，尽管如此，我们也会小心监管就业市场。Ongoing economic growth and an improving labor market underpin our inflation outlook. Overall consumer price inflation-as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures-was about 1 percent over the 12 months ending in April, still short of our 2 percent objective. Much of this shortfall continues to reflect the effects of earlier declines in energy prices and lower prices for imports. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has been running close to 1-1/2 percent. As the transitory influences holding down inflation fade, and as the labor market strengthens further, the Committee expects inflation to rise to 2 percent over the next two to three years. Our inflation outlook also rests importantly on our judgment that longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. However, we cant take the stability of longer-run inflation expectations for granted. While most survey measures of longer-run inflation expectations show little change, on balance, in recent months, financial market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined. Movements in these indicators reflect many factors and therefore may not provide an accurate reading on changes in the inflation expectations that are most relevant for wages and prices. Nonetheless, in considering future policy decisions, we will continue to carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our inflation goal. 经济的不断增长和就业市场进一步改善奠定了我们的通胀预期。4月为止的前12个月整体CPI大概是1%，不及2%的通胀目标。能源价格和进口价格下滑是主要原因。剔除能源和食品价格的核心通胀率接近1.5%。随着压制通胀的短期影响消退以及就业市场进一步加强，委员会预计通胀在接下来2到3年内上升至2%。我们的通胀预期主要基于长期通胀预期保持稳定，尽管最近的长期通胀预期指标几乎没变，但通胀补偿的金融市场指标已经下滑。Let me now turn to the individual economic projections submitted for this meeting by FOMC participants. As always, each participants projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy which, in turn, depends on each persons assessment of the multitude of factors that shape the outlook. Participants projections for growth of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) are slightly lower in the near term than the projections made for the March FOMC meeting. The median growth projection now remains at 2 percent through 2018, in line with its estimated longer-run rate. The median projection for the unemployment rate edges down from 4.7 percent at the end of this year to 4.6 percent in the next two years, somewhat below the median assessment of the longer-run normal unemployment rate. The median path of the unemployment rate is little changed from March. Finally, the median inflation projection stands at 1.4 percent this year, a bit firmer than in March, and then rises to 1.9 percent next year and 2 percent in 2018. Returning to monetary policy, as I said, the Committee maintained its target range for the federal funds rate. This decision reflects the Committees careful approach in setting monetary policy, particularly in light of the mixed readings on the labor market and economic growth that I have discussed as well as continuing below-target inflation. Proceeding cautiously in raising our interest rate target will allow us to verify that economic growth will return to a moderate pace, that the labor market will strengthen further, and that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2 percent objective. Caution is all the more appropriate given that short-term interest rates are still near zero, which means that monetary policy can more effectively respond to surprisingly strong inflation pressures in the future than to a weakening labor market and falling inflation. 我们再转到联邦公开委员参会者的个人经济预测。和往常一样，每个参会者的预测都是基于恰当的货币政策观点和个人对众多因素的评估。此次会议的参会者对近期通货调整后GDP增长预期低于3月份会议的预期。截止2018年的中期增长率保持2%，和长期预期增长率保持一致。截止到年末的中期失业率为4.7%，高于接下来2年的4.6%的失业率。再转到货币政策，委员会保持利率不变的决定反应制定政策时的谨慎态度，尤其在劳动力市场和经济增长指标好坏参半的情况下。Although the financial market stresses that emanated from abroad at the start of this year have eased, vulnerabilities in the global economy remain. In the current environment of sluggish global growth, low inflation, and already very accommodative monetary policy in many advanced economies, investor perceptions of, and appetite for risk can change abruptly. As our statement notes, we will continue to closely monitor global economic and financial developments. 尽管今年初以来的国外金融压力已经减少，但是全球经济依然脆弱。在最近全球增长低迷的环境下，低通胀下许多发达经济体实现已经极度宽松的货币政策，投资者的风险偏好突然改变。我们将密切监督全球经济和金融发展。We continue to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate. We expect the rate to remain, for some time, below levels that are anticipated to prevail in the longer run because headwinds weighing on the economy mean that the interest rate needed to keep the economy operating near its potential is low by historical standards. These headwinds-which include developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth-could persist for some time. But, if they gradually fade over the next few years as we expect, then the interest rate required to keep the economy operating at an even keel should move higher as well. 我们预计经济发展将会使得联邦利率逐步增加。我们预期低利率将维持一段时间，因为在经济面临的困境下低利率有助于经济发展，这些困境包括国外经济发展，家庭经济指标低迷，生产增长不足将维持一段时间。但是，如果这些问题在接下来几年出现消退，利率会逐步升高。这种观点和参会者的货币政策预期一致。联邦基准利率中期预期将在明年年末升至1.5%，2018年末达到2.5%，稍低于预估长期正常水平。This view is consistent with participants projections of appropriate monetary policy. The median projection for the federal funds rate rises only gradually to 1-1/2 percent at the end of next year and 2-1/2 percent by the end of 2018, somewhat below its estimated longer-run normal level. Although the median federal funds rate at the end of this year is unchanged from March, a number of participants revised down their projections. For 2017 and 2018, the median projection is 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point lower than in March, roughly in line with the 1/4 percentage point downward revision made to the estimated longer-run level of the federal funds rate. As I have noted on previous occasions, participants projections for the federal funds rate, including the median path, are not a fixed plan for future policy. Policy is