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PowerPoint 演示文稿 ccirmorg Relationship betweenProperty insuranceand Economic Growth withDifferent IndustryAgglomeration-An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold RegressionYuanYuan andTan YiSchoolof Insurance,Central University of Financeand EconomicsBeijing,ChinaJuly19,xxOutline ofTopicsIntroduction1Review ofLiteratures2The Empirical Analysis4Model andVariables3Reference6Conclusion andSuggestion5IntroductionReview of LiteraturesModel and VariablesThe Empirical AnalysisConclusion andSuggestionMethodMethodData?Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)h dM d?PanelThresholdModeltool-Stata12IntroductionReview of LiteraturesModel and VariablesThe Empirical Analysis Conclusion and SuggestionDataMethodData?xx-xxYearbook ofChina Insurance7Y kt i?xx-xxYearbook ofChina StatisticalIntroductionReview of LiteraturesModel and VariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysis Conclusion and SuggestionThe views of foreignscholarsThe insuranceand economic growth?The insurance industry canpromote economic growth.(Outreville,Tong)?There isa strongcausal relationship between theproperty insuranceandeconomic growth.And theproperty insuranceplays asignificant positiverole in theeconomy.(Arena)?The relationshipshows muchdifference in different countries.(Ward etal)?Property insurancecould promote economic growth,but ithas muchdifferencein Western,Eastern andCentral Europe.(Haiss andKjell)IntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysis Conclusionand SuggestionTheviewsof the domestic scholarsThe insuranceand economic growth?The development of theinsurance industryplays arole inpromotingeconomic growth.(Lin Baoqing,Zhu Minglai)?Insurance significantlypaly astabilizerrole ininhibiting economicbt fluctuations,but theboosterroleineconomic growthwas notobvious.(Tian Lingand Gao Jun)?He didnt supportthe viewpointthat the developmentof insurance willpromoteeconomic growth.（Hu Hongbing）?The effectof non-life insuranceindustry to economicgrowthwas notsteadywhen weused differentestimation methods.(Shao Quanquan)IntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysis ConclusionandSuggestionTheconclusion ofLiteraturesThe insuranceand economicgrowth?Most ofdomesticscholarsuse thesmooth transitionmodel,thresholdregression methodsto analyzethe possiblenon-linear relationshipbetweenproperty insuranceand economicgrowth.However,theseproblems willaffect theauracy of the conclusionsand theaeptablelevel toa largeextent.?Existing studiestend toignore thespecific situationof theindustrialagglomeration degreein thevarious provinces.?Therefore,it isnecessary todiscuss thisquestion underthe premiseofconsidering thedegree ofindustrial agglomeration.IntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysisConclusion andSuggestionFig1:The HHIfromxxtoxxThe thresholdvariable-HHIModel andVariables00.40.5xxxxxxxxxxIntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysisConclusion andSuggestionModel?Single threshold panel modelThe thresholdvariable-HHIModel andVariables?Multi-threshold panelmodel12()()it i it it it it it itgdpcontrol claim I hhi claim I hhi?1121232()()()iti it it ititititit itgdpcontrol claimI hhiclaimIhhiclaimIhhi?Table2i iregiont yearindividualeffects of the regionthedependent variable(economic development)the independentvariables(P&C claims)a setof controlledvariables(fixed assetsinvestment,education spending,urbanization,openness,etc.)the coefficientsof correspondingvariablesa thresholdvariablethe correspondingthreshold valuetheindicator function?it?N(0,?2)a randomdisturbance termIntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysisConclusion and SuggestionTable3:Variable definitionsand calculationmethodsThe thresholdvariable-HHIModel andVariables()*(,)iiiiiGDP AHHI FL FIZ?Variable natureVariablename VariableMeaning MethodDependentvariable gdpper capitagdp GDP/total populationIndependentvariable claiminsurance claimsTotalproperty insurance claims/totalvariable claiminsuranceclaimspopulationthreshold variablehhithe degreeof industryagglomeration-ControlVariablesfiper capita investment infixedassets Investmentin fixedassets/total populationeduper capitainvestmentineducation spendingEducation spending/total populationtrapercapitatraffic mileageRoad andrail mileage/total populationopenopenness Totalimports andexports/GDPubr urbanizationNon-agricultural population/total populationIntroductionReview ofLiteraturesModel andVariablesThe EmpiricalAnalysisConclusionandSuggestionThe existence of the threshold panel Threshold regression and theoreticalanalysisThe existenceofthe thresholdpanelHypothesis testF P1%5%10%H0:no thresholdvalue;H1:there isa threshold4.0124*0.03006.42243.31142.2331H0:there isa thresholdvalue;1.65080.20005.46903.84092.7705?Table4:Threshold effecttest;H1:there aretwo thresholdvaluesNotes:*,*,*denote the1%,5%,10%statistical significant level.?Table5:The numberof provincesindifferentyears andintervalThe rangeof HHIxxxxxxxxxxhhi0.33062025262727hhi0.3306116544total3131313131IntroductionReviewofLiteraturesModelandVariablesTheEmpiricalAnalysisConclusionand SuggestionTable6:Estimates ofmodel parametersTheexistenceofthe thresholdpanelThresholdregressionand theoretical analysisVariablesCoefficient t-white t-olslnfi0.441611.4041*11.1216*lnedu0.03060.89780.7141Note:*,*,*represent1%,5%,10%significantlevel.twhite isthetvalues withthe heteroscedasticity,tols isthetvalues withthe homoscedasticity.lntra-0.0167-0.6505-0.6067lnopen0.09165.2020*5.2721*lnubr0.58848.1878*7.3469*lnclaim（0.3306）0.15503.8321*3.6565*lnclaim（0.3306）0.05131.23581.0030IntroductionReviewofLiteraturesModelandVariablesTheEmpiricalAnalysisConclusion andSuggestionConclusionConclusionSuggestion?In thispaper,empirical resultsshow thatthe HHIhas asignificantthreshold effect,and thereis non-linear relationshipbetweenChinese economicdevelopment andproperty insurance.HHI0.3306,the developmentof property insurance hasthe significantpositiveeffect on economicgrowth.HHI0.3306,thedevelopmentof property insurance hasnot thesignificantpositive effectoneconomicgrowth.?So,in termsoftherelationshipbetweenthe economicdevelopmentand propertyinsurancein China,when theHHI islow,thedevelopment ofpropertyinsurancecan effectivelypromoteeconomic growth in long-term.IntroductionReviewofLiteraturesModelandVariablesTheEmpiricalAnalysisConclusionandSuggestionSuggestionTherefore,in makingthe relevantinsurance policy,the HHIshouldbe controlledin areasonable thresholdrange to let theConclusionSuggestionshouldbe controlledin areasonable thresholdrange,toletthedevelopment ofpropertyinsurancepromote theregionaleconomic growth.Reference?OurtreilleJ.f.,The EconomicSignificance ofinsurance Marketsin DevelopingCountriesJ.The Journal of Riskand Insurance,Vol57,1990.?Tong,Haizhi,xx,“an investigationoftheinsurance sectors contributiontoeconomicgrowth”,Doctoral Disserration,UniversityofNebraska.?Arena,M.,xx,“Does InsuranceMarket ActivityPromote Economic Growth?A Cross-Country Studyfor Industrializedand DevelopingCountries”,World BankPolicy ResearchWorking Paper,4098.?Ward,Damian,Zurbruegg,Ralf.Does Insurancepromoteeconomicgrowth-evidence fromOECD CountriesJ.The Journal of Riskand Insurance,2000 (4).?Esho,N.,KirivskyA.Ward,D.and Zurbruegg,Law andthe Determinantsfor Property-Casualty InsuranceJ.The Journalof Riskand Insurance,xx.?Peter Haiss，Kjell Smegi.The relationshipbetween insuranceand economicgrowthinEurope:a theoreticaland empiricalanalysisJ.Empirica,xx (35).?Hansen BE.Threshold Effectsin Non-Dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and InferenceJ.JournalofEconometrics,1999 (93).?Lin Baoqing,Hong Xixi,Wujiang Ming.An empiricalAnalysis of Demand IneElastic Coefficientof PropertyInsurance inChinaJ.e Journalof Finance,xx (7).?Zhu Minglai,Lu Yan,Kui Cao.The DeterminantsofDemandfor CorporateInsurance inChina:EmpiricalAnalysiswith PanelData atProvince LevelJ.JournalofFinance,xx (12).?Tian Ling,GaoJun.Booster orstabilizer:an empiricalanalysis onthe functionofinsuranceindustry toeconomicgrowthJ.Insurance Studies,xx (3).?Hu Hongbing.A Cointegra