财务管理 培训课件

Irwin McGraw Hill Chapter1 FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition TheFirmandTheFinancialManager BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill Irwin McGraw Hill TheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc 2001 Irwin McGraw Hill TopicsCovered OrganizingaBusinessTheRoleofTheFinancialManagerFinancialMarketsWhoIsTheFinancialManagerCorporateGoals IncentivesValueMaximization Irwin McGraw Hill OrganizingaBusiness TypesofBusinessOrganizationsSoleProprietorshipsPartnershipsCorporations Irwin McGraw Hill OrganizingaBusiness CorporateStructure SoleProprietorships Corporations Partnerships Irwin McGraw Hill Financial managers Firm s operations Financial markets TheRoleofTheFinancialManager Irwin McGraw Hill TheRoleofTheFinancialManager InvestmentDecisions CapitalBudgeting Buyrealassetsthatareworthmorethantheycost Irwin McGraw Hill TheRoleofTheFinancialManager CapitalBudgeting TangibleAssetsEuroDisney 2billion NontangibleAssetsGillette sMach3Razor 300million Irwin McGraw Hill TheRoleofTheFinancialManager FinancingDecisionsSourceofFunds CapitalMarkets CapitalStructureMoneyMarketsEuros FinancialMarkets PrimaryMarkets SecondaryMarkets OTCMarkets Money Irwin McGraw Hill FinancialMarkets Company IssueDebt Cash Investors Irwin McGraw Hill FinancialMarkets Company Intermediary Investor Irwin McGraw Hill FinancialMarkets Banks Depositors 2 5mil Cash Loan Deposits Company Intermediary Investor Irwin McGraw Hill FinancialMarkets InsuranceCompany Policyholders 250mil Cash Loan SellpoliciesIssueStock Company Intermediary Investor CareersinFinance CareersinFinance Wageweb WallStreetJournal BureauofLaborStatistics www bls govWetfeet OhioStateUniversity www cob ohio state edu fin osujobs htm ClicktoaccesswebsitesInternetconnectionrequired WebLinks GoalsofTheCorporation ShareholdersdesirewealthmaximizationDomanagersmaximizeshareholderwealth Mangershavemanyconstituencies stakeholders AgencyProblems representtheconflictofinterestbetweenmanagementandowners GoalsofTheCorporation AgencyProblemSolutions1 Compensationplans2 BoardofDirectors3 Takeovers4 SpecialistMonitoring5 Auditors WhoisTheFinancialManager ChiefFinancialOfficer Treasurer Controller WebResources www wiso gwdg de ifbg crcse business pitt edu pages ClicktoaccesswebsitesInternetconnectionrequired WebLinks 金融機構之角色 資本形成之方式 資金成本 利率 利率之組成realrisk freerateofinterestinflationpremiumdefaultriskpremiumliquiditypremiummaturityriskpremium 資金成本 利率 續 影響利率之因素productionopportunitiesandtimepreferencesexpectedinflationdefaultriskliquiditytermstructurematuritycentralbankpolicybalanceofpaymenttax governmentdeficit 資金成本 利率 續 利率期間結構與理論市場區隔理論流動性偏好理論預期理理論 外匯市場 重要性 投資與融資活動之全球化生產與分派成本之降低國外資金之募集 資本注入與風險分散 匯率 外匯之價格表示NT 1US 33 25NT US 決定 供給與需求 外匯市場 續 影響匯率之因素決定 供給與需求利率差異物價水準差異其他 GNP 貿易障礙 央行干預 赤字 國際收支 Irwin McGraw Hill Chapter10 FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition Risk Return andCapitalBudgeting BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill Irwin McGraw Hill TheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc 2001 TopicsCovered MeasuringBetaPortfolioBetasCAPMandExpectedReturnSecurityMarketLineCapitalBudgetingandProjectRisk MeasuringMarketRisk MarketPortfolio Portfolioofallassetsintheeconomy Inpracticeabroadstockmarketindex suchastheS PComposite isusedtorepresentthemarket Beta Sensitivityofastock sreturntothereturnonthemarketportfolio MeasuringMarketRisk Example TurboChargedSeafoodhasthefollowing returnsonitsstock relativetothelistedchangesinthe returnonthemarketportfolio ThebetaofTurboChargedSeafoodcanbederivedfromthisinformation MeasuringMarketRisk Example continued MeasuringMarketRisk Whenthemarketwasup1 Turboaverage changewas 0 8 Whenthemarketwasdown1 Turboaverage changewas 0 8 Theaveragechangeof1 6 0 8to0 8 dividedbythe2 1 0to1 0 changeinthemarketproducesabetaof0 8 Example continued MeasuringMarketRisk Whenthemarketwasup1 Turboaverage changewas 0 8 Whenthemarketwasdown1 Turboaverage changewas 0 8 Theaveragechangeof1 6 0 8to0 8 dividedbythe2 1 0to1 0 changeinthemarketproducesabetaof0 8 Example continued MeasuringMarketRisk Example continued PortfolioBetas Diversificationdecreasesvariabilityfromuniquerisk butnotfrommarketrisk Thebetaofyourportfoliowillbeanaverageofthebetasofthesecuritiesintheportfolio IfyouownedalloftheS PCompositeIndexstocks youwouldhaveanaveragebetaof1 0 MeasuringMarketRisk MarketRiskPremium Riskpremiumofmarketportfolio Differencebetweenmarketreturnandreturnonrisk freeTreasurybills MarketPortfolio MeasuringMarketRisk CAPM Theoryoftherelationshipbetweenriskandreturnwhichstatesthattheexpectedriskpremiumonanysecurityequalsitsbetatimesthemarketriskpremium MeasuringMarketRisk SecurityMarketLine ThegraphicrepresentationoftheCAPM 0 1 Beta CapitalBudgeting ProjectRisk Theprojectcostofcapitaldependsontheusetowhichthecapitalisbeingput Therefore itdependsontheriskoftheprojectandnottheriskofthecompany CapitalBudgeting ProjectRisk Example BasedontheCAPM ABCCompanyhasacostofcapitalof17 4 1 3 10 Abreakdownofthecompany sinvestmentprojectsislistedbelow Whenevaluatinganewdogfoodproductioninvestment whichcostofcapitalshouldbeused 1 3NuclearPartsMfr B 2 01 3ComputerHardDriveMfr B 1 31 3DogFoodProductionB 0 6AVG Bofassets 1 3 CapitalBudgeting ProjectRisk Example BasedontheCAPM ABCCompanyhasacostofcapitalof17 4 1 3 10 Abreakdownofthecompany sinvestmentprojectsislistedbelow Whenevaluatinganewdogfoodproductioninvestment whichcostofcapitalshouldbeused R 4 0 6 14 4 10 10 reflectstheopportunitycostofcapitalonaninvestmentgiventheuniqueriskoftheproject DerivationofCAPM CapitalMarketLineIndividual sEfficientFrontierwithRiskFreeAsset DerivationofCAPM HomogeneousExpectation OneMarketEfficienfFrontier CapitalmarketLine CML TheSlopeofCapitalMarketLineis DerivationofCAPM SeurityMarketLine CAPM IfaportfolioisconsistedofAandmarketportfolioMwithassetA W andM 1 W then DerivationofCAPM 對W取一階導數 Wheninequilibrium W 0and DerivationofCAPM Theslopeoftheportfolioinequilibriumthenis Sinceinequilibrium theportfolioisequalthemarketportfolio theslopeoftheportfolioinCMLmustequaltothatofthemarketportfolio theequationcanconstructedasfollows DerivationofCAPM 簡化上式 Inmarketmodel SML DerivationofCAPM 第二講財務報表分析與證券價值之評定 廖咸興臺灣大學財務金融系 所 證券分析之類型 技術分析線型分析基本分析總體經濟情勢分析產業分析公司競爭策略與財務分析 影響公司股價的內外在因素 管理當局無法控制之外在限制 股票市場情勢 1 經濟景氣2 匯率水準3 利率水準4 所得稅5 公交法6 勞基法7 環保法規8 其他 管理當局可控制之決策 1 融資決策2 投資決策3 股利政策4 產品與服務5 生產方法6 行銷方式7 其他 預期獲利 現金流量 風險程度 股票價格 產業分析 市場競爭程度 現有競爭者1 成長性 2 集中度 3 差異性 4 超額產能5 學習 規模經濟 新競爭者威脅1 通路 2 法定障礙 3 規模經濟 4 政商關係 替代品威脅1 相對價格 2 績效 3 顧客轉換意願 產業獲利性 顧客議價能力1 轉換成本 2 差異性 4 成本與品質重要性5 顧客數量及批量 供應商議價能力1 轉換成本 2 差異性 4 成本與品質重要性5 顧客數量及批量 議價能力 公司競爭策略分析 成本優勢1 成本較低2 規模經濟3 生產效率4 原料成本低5 通路成本低6 產品簡單 產品差異化1 高品質2 產品多樣化3 售後服務4 彈性送貨5 品牌形象6 產品創新 競爭利基1 公司的核心能力與成功因子能配合執上述策略2 公司進行的計畫能配合執上述策略3 競爭優勢之持續性 公司財務報表分析 目的與用途 財務分析之目的透過對公司財務報表之分析 來了解該公司營運績效及風險與報酬之狀況 以利投資人進行投資決策 或經營之績效管理 財務分析之用途股票評價 估計與評估系統風險 預測信用或債券評等預測破產績效管理 財務會計之假設與原則 假設經濟個體 永續經營 貨幣衡量 期間原則成本原則 收入承認原則 費用配合原則充份揭露原則 公司財務分析之標的 財務報表 資產負債表某特定時點公司帳面之資產 負債與權益狀況損益表某特定時段公司帳面經營之損益現金流量表某特定時段 公司由營運 投資與融資三種活動而來的現金流量 閱讀財務報表應注意事項 會計方法的一致性存貨計價方法折舊方法建築業利潤之完工入帳法其他不尋常的存貨上升不尋常的應收帳款上升 閱讀財務報表應注意事項 續 淨利與營運而來之現金流量差異不尋常擴大不尋常之獲利增加未預期的大規模資產沖銷關係人 企業 交易但書 不尋常 有問題 會計改變 管理操弄 財務分析主要工具 財務比率分析 共同比率分析營運能力之比率分析流動性之比率分析長期償債能力之比率分析獲利能力之比率分析市場基本面比率 營運能力之比率分析 存貨週轉率 應收帳款週轉率 總資產週轉率 營運比率 流動性之比率分析 流動比率 速動比率 現金流量流動比率 防禦區間 現金循環長度 平均存貨天數 平均應收帳款天數 平均應付帳天數 現金循環長度個案比較 裕隆 中華 國產車 長期償債能力之比率分析 負債權益比 利息 償債支出 保障比率 現金基礎 現金流量流動比率 獲利能力之比率分析 銷貨利潤率 權益報酬率 資產報酬率 市場基本面比率 本益比 淨值市價比 市價現金流量比 市價營收比 財務比率分析之應用 優劣之判定與同業比較與本身前幾期比較 趨勢 與同業作趨勢比較股票評價 P E EPS 預測信用或債券評等預測破產 Z 模型 1966 及ZETA模型 Z 金融機構比率分析 獲利性流動性安全性授信品質資本適足性 金融機構獲利能力之比率分析 權益報酬率資產報酬率利差比率 淨營運費用比率 金融機構流動性之比率分析 放款佔資產比率 存放比率 短期資產比率 短期融通比率 放款佔資產比率 存放比率 金融機構安全性之比率分析 授信品質逾放比率 資本適足性自有資本比率 自有資本對風險性資產比率 逾放比率 自有資本對風險性資產比率 Irwin McGraw Hill Chapter3 FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition TheTimeValueofMoney BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill Irwin McGraw Hill TheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc 2001 TopicsCovered FutureValuesPresentValuesMultipleCashFlowsPerpetuitiesandAnnuitiesInflation TimeValueEffectiveAnnualInterestRate FutureValues FutureValue Amounttowhichaninvestmentwillgrowafterearninginterest CompoundInterest Interestearnedoninterest SimpleInterest Interestearnedonlyontheoriginalinvestment FutureValues FutureValueof 100 FV FutureValues Example FVWhatisthefuturevalueof 100ifinterestiscompoundedannuallyatarateof6 forfiveyears FutureValues Example FVWhatisthefuturevalueof 100ifinterestiscompoundedannuallyatarateof6 forfiveyears FutureValueswithCompounding InterestRates ManhattanIslandSale PeterMinuitboughtManhattanIslandfor 24in1626 Wasthisagooddeal Toanswer determine 24isworthintheyear2000 compoundedat8 FYI ThevalueofManhattanIslandlandiswellbelowthisfigure PresentValues PresentValueValuetodayofafuturecashflow DiscountRateInterestrateusedtocomputepresentvaluesoffuturecashflows DiscountFactorPresentvalueofa 1futurepayment PresentValues PresentValues ExampleYoujustboughtanewcomputerfor 3 000 Thepaymenttermsare2yearssameascash Ifyoucanearn8 onyourmoney howmuchmoneyshouldyousetasidetodayinordertomakethepaymentwhendueintwoyears PresentValues DiscountFactor DF PVof 1DiscountFactorscanbeusedtocomputethepresentvalueofanycashflow ThePVformulahasmanyapplications Givenanyvariablesintheequation youcansolvefortheremainingvariable TimeValueofMoney applications ValueofFreeCreditImpliedInterestRatesInternalRateofReturnTimenecessarytoaccumulatefunds TimeValueofMoney applications PVofMultipleCashFlows ExampleYourautodealergivesyouthechoicetopay 15 500cashnow ormakethreepayments 8 000nowand 4 000attheendofthefollowingtwoyears Ifyourcostofmoneyis8 whichdoyouprefer PVofMultipleCashFlows PVscanbeaddedtogethertoevaluatemultiplecashflows Perpetuities Annuities PerpetuityAstreamoflevelcashpaymentsthatneverends AnnuityEquallyspacedlevelstreamofcashflowsforalimitedperiodoftime Perpetuities Annuities PVofPerpetuityFormulaC cashpaymentr interestrate Perpetuities Annuities Example PerpetuityInordertocreateanendowment whichpays 100 000peryear forever howmuchmoneymustbesetasidetodayintherateofinterestis10 Perpetuities Annuities Example continuedIfthefirstperpetuitypaymentwillnotbereceiveduntilthreeyearsfromtoday howmuchmoneyneedstobesetasidetoday Perpetuities Annuities PVofAnnuityFormulaC cashpaymentr interestratet Numberofyearscashpaymentisreceived Perpetuities Annuities PVAnnuityFactor PVAF Thepresentvalueof 1ayearforeachoftyears Perpetuities Annuities Example AnnuityYouarepurchasingacar Youarescheduledtomake3annualinstallmentsof 4 000peryear Givenarateofinterestof10 whatisthepriceyouarepayingforthecar i e whatisthePV Perpetuities Annuities ApplicationsValueofpaymentsImpliedinterestrateforanannuityCalculationofperiodicpaymentsMortgagepaymentAnnualincomefromaninvestmentpayoutFutureValueofannualpayments Perpetuities Annuities Example FutureValueofannualpaymentsYouplantosave 4 000everyyearfor20yearsandthenretire Givena10 rateofinterest whatwillbetheFVofyourretirementaccount Inflation Inflation Rateatwhichpricesasawholeareincreasing NominalInterestRate Rateatwhichmoneyinvestedgrows RealInterestRate Rateatwhichthepurchasingpowerofaninvestmentincreases Inflation approximationformula Inflation ExampleIftheinterestrateononeyeargovt bondsis5 0 andtheinflationrateis2 2 whatistherealinterestrate SavingsBond EffectiveInterestRates AnnualPercentageRate Interestratethatisannualizedusingsimpleinterest EffectiveAnnualInterestRate Interestratethatisannualizedusingcompoundinterest EffectiveInterestRates exampleGivenamonthlyrateof1 whatistheEffectiveAnnualRate EAR WhatistheAnnualPercentageRate APR 基本財務數學摘要 現值與未來值年金 Annuity 的未來值和現值貸款常數 mortgageconstant 與沉入基金因子 sinkingfundfactor 現值與未來值 現值與未來值之關係FVn PV 1 r nFVn PV 1 r m nmEffectiveAnnualYield EAY EAY 1 r m m 1未來值因子 FV r m nm 1 r m nm現值因子 PV r m nm 1 1 r m nm 年金的未來值和現值 I 永久年金 Annuity 的現值 年金現值因子 AnnuityPresentValueFactor 為 年金的未來值和現值 II 年金未來值因子為 貸款常數 mortgageconstant 與沉入基金因子 sinkingfundfactor 貸款常數PV A PVA r n A PV 1 PVA r n MC 1 1 PVA r n 沉入基金因子FV A FVA r n A FV 1 FVA r n SFF 1 1 FVA r n Irwin McGraw Hill Chapter4 FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition ValuingBonds BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill Irwin McGraw Hill TheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc 2001 Irwin McGraw Hill TopicsCovered BondCharacteristicsreadingthefinancialpagesBondPricesandYieldsBondpricesandinterestratesYTMvs currentyieldRateofReturnInterestRateRiskTheYieldCurveNominalandRealRatesofInterestDefaultRisk Bonds TerminologyBond Securitythatobligatestheissuertomakespecifiedpaymentstothebondholder Coupon Theinterestpaymentsmadetothebondholder FaceValue ParValueorMaturityValue Paymentatthematurityofthebond CouponRate Annualinterestpayment asapercentageoffacevalue Bonds WARNINGThecouponrateISNOTthediscountrateusedinthePresentValuecalculations Thecouponratemerelytellsuswhatcashflowthebondwillproduce Sincethecouponrateislistedasa thismisconceptionisquitecommon BondPricing ThepriceofabondisthePresentValueofallcashflowsgeneratedbythebond i e couponsandfacevalue discountedattherequiredrateofreturn BondPricing ExampleWhatisthepriceofa6 annualcouponbond witha 1 000facevalue whichmaturesin3years Assumearequiredreturnof5 6 BondPricing Example continued Whatisthepriceofthebondiftherequiredrateofreturnis6 BondPricing Example continued Whatisthepriceofthebondiftherequiredrateofreturnis15 BondPricing Example continued Whatisthepriceofthebondiftherequiredrateofreturnis5 6 ANDthecouponsarepaidsemi annually BondPricing Example continued Q Howdidthecalculationchange givensemi annualcouponsversusannualcouponpayments TimePeriodsPayingcouponstwiceayear insteadofoncedoublesthetotalnumberofcashflowstobediscountedinthePVformula DiscountRateSincethetimeperiodsarenowhalfyears thediscountrateisalsochangedfromtheannualratetothehalfyearrate BondYields CurrentYield Annualcouponpaymentsdividedbybondprice YieldToMaturity Interestrateforwhichthepresentvalueofthebond spaymentsequaltheprice BondYields CalculatingYieldtoMaturity YTM r Ifyouaregiventhepriceofabond PV andthecouponrate theyieldtomaturitycanbefoundbysolvingforr BondYields ExampleWhatistheYTMofa6 annualcouponbond witha 1 000facevalue whichmaturesin3years Themarketpriceofthebondis 1 010 77 BondYields WARNINGCalculatingYTMbyhandcanbeverytedious Itishighlyrecommendedthatyoulearntousethe IRR or YTM or i functionsonafinancialcalculator BondYields RateofReturn Earningsperperiodperdollarinvested InterestRateRisk PremiumBond DiscountBond InterestRateRisk 30yrbond 3yrbond NominalandRealrates YieldonUKnominalbonds YieldonUKindexedbonds DefaultRisk CreditriskDefaultpremiumInvestmentgradeJunkbonds DefaultRisk CorporateBonds ZerocouponsFloatingratebondsConvertiblebonds TheYieldCurve TermStructureofInterestRates Alistingofbondmaturitydatesandtheinterestratesthatcorrespondwitheachdate YieldCurve Graphofthetermstructure WebResources ClicktoaccesswebsitesInternetconnectionrequired WebLinks Irwin McGraw Hill Chapter5 FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition ValuingStocks BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill Irwin McGraw Hill TheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc 2001 Irwin McGraw Hill TopicsCovered StocksandtheStockMarketBookValues LiquidationValuesandMarketValuesValuingCommonStocksSimplifyingtheDividendDiscountModelGrowthStocksandIncomeStocks Stocks StockMarket PrimaryMarket Placewherethesaleofnewstockfirstoccurs InitialPublicOffering IPO Firstofferingofstocktothegeneralpublic SeasonedIssue SaleofnewsharesbyafirmthathasalreadybeenthroughanIPO Stocks StockMarket CommonStock Ownershipsharesinapubliclyheldcorporation SecondaryMarket marketinwhichalreadyissuedsecuritiesaretradedbyinvestors Dividend Periodiccashdistributionfromthefirmtotheshareholders P ERatio Pricepersharedividedbyearningspershare Stocks StockMarket Stocks StockMarket BookValue Networthofthefirmaccordingtothebalancesheet LiquidationValue Netproceedsthatwouldberealizedbysellingthefirm sassetsandpayingoffitscreditors MarketValueBalanceSheet Financialstatementthatusesmarketvalueofassetsandliabilities ValuingCommonStocks ExpectedReturn Thepercentageyieldthataninvestorforecastsfromaspecificinvestmentoverasetperiodoftime Sometimescalledtheholdingperiodreturn HPR ValuingCommonStocks Theformulacanbebrokenintotwoparts DividendYield CapitalAppreciation ValuingCommonStocks DividendDiscountModel Computationoftoday sstockpricewhichstatesthatsharevalueequalsthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividends H Timehorizonforyourinvestment ValuingCommonStocks ExampleCurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof 3 3 24 and 3 50overthenextthreeyears respectively Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof 94 48 Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12 expectedreturn ValuingCommonStocks ExampleCurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof 3 3 24 and 3 50overthenextthreeyears respectively Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof 94 48 Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12 expectedreturn ValuingCommonStocks Ifweforecastnogrowth andplantoholdoutstockindefinitely wewillthenvaluethestockasaPERPETUITY Assumesallearningsarepaidtoshareholders ValuingCommonStocks ConstantGrowthDDM Aversionofthedividendgrowthmodelinwhichdividendsgrowataconstantrate GordonGrowthModel Givenanycombinationofvariablesintheequation youcansolvefortheunknownvariable ValuingCommonStocks ExampleWhatisthevalueofastockthatexpectstopaya 3 00dividendnextyear andthenincreasethedividendatarateof8 peryear indefinitely Assumea12 expectedreturn ValuingCommonStocks Example continuedIfthesamestockissellingfor 100inthestockmarket whatmightthemarketbeassumingaboutthegrowthindividends AnswerThemarketisassumingthedividendwillgrowat9 peryear indefinitely ValuingCommonStocks Ifafirmelectstopayalowerdividend andreinvestthefunds thestockpricemayincreasebecausefuturedividendsmaybehigher PayoutRatio FractionofearningspaidoutasdividendsPlowbackRatio Fractionofearningsretainedbythefirm ValuingCommonStocks Growthcanbederivedfromapplyingthereturnonequitytothepercentageofearningsplowedbackintooperations g returnonequityXplowbackratio ValuingCommonStocks ExampleOurcompanyforecaststopaya 5 00dividendnextyear whichrepresents100 ofitsearnings Thiswillprovideinvestorswitha12 expectedreturn Instead wedecidetoplowback40 oftheearningsatthefirm scurrentreturnonequi