房地产信贷对房价的影响 proposal.docx

Project Proposal Business Research Project ProposalStudent ID Number: K0161340Surname/Family Name: WenFirst Name(s): TaoProgramme of Study: Business FinanceWorking Title of Project:The mutual impact between credit financing and high price of real estate market within Chinese government macro controlWhich of the following academic areas best describes your project topic (please tick)?AccountancyLeadershipE-BusinessMarketingEconomicsOrganisational BehaviourEnterprise/EntrepreneurialismStrategyFinanceOther (please give details):Human Resources / Personnel Project AimHow much relationship between High house price and mortgage loan? How efficient if the government adopt limiting mortgage loan to restrict high house price? Objectives1. To analyse why Chinese government depend the financial agency to macro control the house price and whether it is has obvious efficiency. 2. To analyse consumer opinions to ask their opinions about the house price and whether they have real willingness in the short or long term.3. To research residents point of view about the governments policy and their confidence of cut house price.Rationale Due to Chinese government funding restrictions and discount sales are highly expected by residents, Chinese property developers are now experiencing their own credit crisis and individual property loans are also tightening. However, it seems that within Chinese cultural background everything gonna be changed. Real estate can be a financial carrier. Too much people utilize the simple procedure to get loan from bank and buy a series house and then sell it in higher price. Property developers control the high price of the land. This project would focus on why Chinese government is powerful restricting Chinese real estate market by using a series of macro control policy. The research would be useful to better comprehend future house price trend and helps young people to choose an adaptable opportune moment to buy the house.Theoretical Background (give a brief literature review of your area) In early 1990s, the welfare-oriented urban home distribution system transferred into home business mortgage business. Within 20 years development, it grows tremendous and now it is the most important capital resources for resident to purchase the house price. Home mortgage service in China is currently mainly provided by commercial banks.The flourish of this service not only injects liquidity to the real estate market, but also brings profitable business opportunities to commercial banks. The market volumeincreased by 40 times in the past decade, from 47,036 square meters at the end of 1999 to 1,883,601 square meters at the end of 2008 (Hong. F. and Chen. J., 2007). Compared with the reasonable range of the world housing price ratio, which is three to six times, the housing price to income ratio of Beijing is obviously higher. In particular, it has risen substantially after 2004 and approached 10 in 2009. Whats more, in China, the allocation of income is not ideal, the Gini coefficient is high, there is a big gap between the rich and the poor, low income population is substantial, and the housing price has far surpassed the affordability of the low income group and the ordinary working class. (Bardhan. A., Edelstein. H. R. et al., 2011)Comparison of Housing Price and Rental Price in Beijing between 2002 and 2009(Sources: Real estate database of SouF (housing price); statistical database of )China has taken a series of measures in recent months to curb prices in the residential property market, which soared 11.7 percent in March. This indicated a possible bubble. The markets reaction to the policies is complicated: Transaction numbers decreased, but experts and developers are of different opinions about what prices will do. April 30: Beijing unveils tough measures to curb housing price rises April 19: Government to punish property price manipulation April 17: Banks can refuse third-home loans April 14: Second home payment raised to curb soaring prices(Source: /bizchina/2010-05/05/content_9813622.html, )Gerlach and Peng (2005) finds a long-run relationship linking house prices, bankcredit and GDP in Hong Kong . For house prices and credit in the short run, theyconclude that the relationship is one-way; a change in house prices causes changes in bank credit.Research DesignThe Intended Research ApproachThe project would include both primary research data and secondary research dataThere are numerous exist research data of authoritative Institution to be evidence. However my research topic area is innovated rapidly so I also need to collect some latest data of respondents think within the constant changing environment. My research would be the grounded theory. Intended MethodsQualitative The primary qualitative data collection needs to catch hold of respondents desire and buying behaviour four purchasing house price. It can collect different information from different background and age group. Secondary qualitative data also would be adopted because the relationship between house price and mortgage lending is a hot point. I can acquire some fresh data from news articles, market/industry reports, textbooks, academic journal articles etc. Social media has depth reported a host of current phenomenon and collect some reliable data. The report of property estimate agency and the report of real estate business corporation are also important in this research project. Qualitative research can well reflect populations house purchasing psychology and expectation of future development of real estate market. Quantitative In my research, it will include amount of quantitative data. For example, house price is correlated to mortgage loan. Within same period, the amount of mortgage loan is reflecting the sales volume of house which means I need the percentage of house sales. Primary research data would be concluded in the questionnaire. I need a large number of quantitative data to indicate that the mutual impact of financial lending and real estate market to further elaborates the macroeconomic regulation and control effect. Quantitative data is the most powerful evidence. The research methods would be similar as qualitative research such as questionnaire, social media, the report of property estimate agency and the report of real estate business corporation and face to face interview. Data & Information Sources Primary Information SourcesThe qualitative research would be mainly used in this research to choose two specific groups that who has low financial basis but has the real willingness in short term and who is still waiting the trend of price in long term. (These would be discriminated from questionnaire.) This group would highly pay attention to the information of real estate market so that I can acquire some reliable data. The psychology of property buyers is closely associated to the development future real estate market. Does the house price can really decrease and correspond with the consumers expectation? With high pressure of policy. Does the percentage funding resource come from bank would be change? Secondary Information Sources The secondary information source is the most important data in my research. I need host of authoritative data from social media, the report of commercial bank and the report of real estate Business Corporation to explain the current situation and future forecast trend. The data is quite difficult to collect but the limitation of it is that the data is entire truly and exist some false return. I acquire these data through website and some literature review.Analysis (how you will analyse your qualitative/quantitative data)Some research techniques would be used in this research. It includes descriptive Data Analysis and Inferential Data AnalysisThe method used to analyze data depends on the approach used to collect the information (secondary research, primary quantitative research or primary qualitative research) An Excel diagram would be used to show the data.Ethical considerations and contingency planSome ethical problems would arise through the project research. First of all, the research is totally voluntary participation. Secondly, my research questions may refers to some sensitive and private data and the respondents have the authority to discontinue the interviews or skip the question what they dont want to answer. Secondly, it may disturb peoples working time. Thirdly, I guarantee the participants confidentiality of their individual information. All of answers would be collected in an in nominate way. For the reason of my topic itself is an open minded research project, I think my work would not refer too much in private issue and it would be fine for the respondents. I hope that my research can process successfullyBibliographyBardhan. A., Edelstein. H. R. et al. (2011) Global Housing Markets: Crises, Policies, and Institution Canada: John Wiley & Sons,Inc. p.p. 278China Daily. URL : /bizchina/2010-05/05/content_9813622.html (Access in 10/11/2011) Gerlach, S. and W. Peng. (2005) “Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong,” Journal of Banking and Finance, p.p. 29Hong. F. and Chen. J. (2007) “evidences and insights from a regional perspective” The relationship between home mortgage loan and real estate market in China regional perspectivePlease also attach: A Gannt chart to demonstrate the time plan of your project An ethics form (with the first page filled in ready for your Advisor to sign).The project plan can be processed as follows. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May Read Literature review Draft Literature review Choose methodology review Select respondents group and Design the questions Draft questionnaire Qualitative data collection Quantitative data collection Analyse Interviews Draft Final essay & Submit to tutor Modify Essay & Update literature review Submit Final essay APPENDIX : RESEARCH ETHICS RELEASE FORMTEESSIDE UNIVERSITY CONFIDENTIALRESEARCH ETHICS RELEASE FORMPlease return form with Section A completed to:The Secretary, Research Ethics CommitteeSchool ofSection A: To be completed by the appropriate Project Supervisor or Director of Studies.School:Teesside UniversityProject Title:Business FinanceName of Project Supervisor/Director of Studies:Ellen bissellNames of Researcher(s)/Students working on this project:Tao Wen Please tick type of Researcher:Final Year Undergraduate StudentTaught PostgraduatePG Research StudentStaff - higher degreeStaff - other researchFinal Year Under-grad. StudentExpected duration of project from:to:From Oct,2011 to May 2012Aim of Project:How much relationship between High house price and mortgage loan? How efficient if the government adopt limiting mortgage loan to restrict high house price?Methods/Procedures (please specify)Qualitative research Quantitative researchEthical Consideration The following points have been assessed:1.The merit and feasibility of the proposal2.Possible discomfort, distress or inconvenience to participants and/or Researchers3.Procedures for respecting confidentiality and operating with data protection legislation.4.The implications of monetary or other inducements to University of Teesside, its staff, student or researchers, to participants or anyone else involved. 5. Potential conflicts of interest arising between the researchers employment and the research project or other collaborative research.6.All safety risks have been assessed in accordance with the Universitys Risk Assessment Procedure and measures taken where appropriate to make them as low as reasonably practicable.7 If the research involves human subjects, the following points have also been assessed:Procedures for: providing explanation to participants including the preparation of an appropriate information sheet obtaining informed consent from participants or where necessary from their parents or guardians, including the preparation of a written consent form8.If the work may involve participants from vulnerable groups, the nature of recruitment and participation of these people.I have read the Universitys guidelines on ethics related to research, and to the best of my knowledge and ability confirm that the ethical considerations overleaf have been assessed. I am aware of and understand University procedures on Research Ethics and Health & Safety. I understand that the ethical propriety of this project may be monitored by the Schools Research Ethics Sub-Committee. (Please complete the following as appropriate) Please Tick I have appropriate experience of the general research area. I confirm that I have Research Ethics Training required by my School. I confirm that as Supervisor that I will monitor progress of the project. I confirm that the project complies with the Code of Practice of the following Professional Body: I recommend that the project should proceed without submission to a Research Ethics CommitteeSignature of Staff Researcher: _Date: _OR:Signature of