第章价格与汇率变动ppt课件.ppt

EngineeringEconomy Chapter7 PriceChangesandExchangeRates TheobjectiveofChapter7istopresenthowinflation deflationisdealtwithinengineeringeconomystudies Ourassumptionofconstantpricesforgoodsandservicesisgenerallynotthecase Generalpriceinflationincreasestheaveragepriceofgoodsandservicesovertime whiledeflationresultsinadecreaseinaverageprices certainlyamorerarecircumstance Changesintheconsumerpriceindex CPI andproducerpriceindex PPI areusedassurrogatemeasuresofinflation Therateofchangecanbefound ineithercase fromtheformulabelow Theoilrefinerybusinesshasbeeninthenewsalot Thegeneralinflationrateforthisindustryforthe2007calendaryearcanbefoundusingtheproducerpriceindex from Therearealotoftermstoknow Actualdollars A alsoknownascurrent nominal orinflateddollars representcashatthetimeitoccurs Realdollars R alsoknownasconstantdollars aredollarsexpressedintermsofthesamepurchasingpowerrelativetoaparticulartime Generalpriceinflation ordeflation rate f perhapspeculiartoparticularbusinessenvironment Moretermstoknow Market nominal interestrate im isthemoneypaidfortheuseofcapital adjustedforanticipatedgeneralpriceinflation Realinterestrate ir isthemoneypaidfortheuseofcapital notadjustedforanticipatedinflation theinflation freeinterestrate Basetimeperiod b isthereferenceorbasetimeperiodusedtodefinetheconstantpurchasingpowerofrealdollars Actualdollarsinyearkcanbeconvertedintorealdollarsasofanybaseperiodbytherelationshipbelow Itisimportanttousethecorrectdollar type interest typecombination Otherwise theresultswillbebiased Whencashflowestimatesaremadeusingactualdollars A thecorrectratetouseisthemarketinterestrate im whichisadjustedforinflation Whencashflowestimatesaremadeusingrealdollars R thecorrectratetouseistherealinterestrate ir Relatingthemarketinterestrateandthereal inflationfree interestrate or Caution Fixedandresponsiveannuities Itiscriticalwhenperformingengineeringeconomicanalysesthatfuturecashflowsbeconsistent andperhapsconverted intoeitherrealoractual constant dollars asappropriate beforeperformingtheanalysis 2020 4 1 12 通货膨胀与经济分析 某银行为她 年期的存款提供每年11 的收益率 不变折现率 现时折现率 安古拉斯根据他祖父的遗嘱他将在30岁得到一份遗产 他现在20岁 他所在国的通胀率为每年1000 这份遗产价值10亿比索 10年后 这份遗产价值多少 2020 4 1 13 3 一对夫妇投资收益率为26 的不动产 他们估计在投资期内平均通胀率为5 他么投资的不变收益率是多少 与通胀相关的名义利率和实际利率James夫妇投资一项业务 名义收益率12 每月按复利计息 通胀率为6 这笔资金的实际收益率 2020 4 1 14 有必要将通胀率纳入经济分析 1 给定一个衡定通胀率20 i 15 2020 4 1 15 2 投资 2000到商业银行存款 按每年5 25 的复利计息 f 9 年底的投资价值是多少 2020 4 1 16 2 A B两个互斥方案 消胀的资金机会成本为15 通胀率为10 考虑通胀率对决策的影响 Foreignexchangeratescanalterpurchasingpower andshouldbeconsideredinanalysisofmultipleworldeconomieswithvaryingeconomiccircumstances Asexchangeratesvary thevalueofgoodsinaparticularcurrencywillfluctuate Therateisanalogoustochangesinthegeneralinflationrate Let Therelationshipamongthesevariablesis or and ThecurrencyofthecountryofAlbatross thegrickle isdevaluedagainsttheU S dollarby8 peryear TherateofreturnonaninvestmentrelativetothegrickleinAlbatrossis12 Whatistheequivalentreturnrelativetothedollar 21 Investinginaforeignassemblyplant TheCMOSelectronicscompanyisconsideringacapitalinvestmentof50000000pesosinanassemblyplantlocatedinaforeigncountry currencyisexpressedinpesos andtheexchangerateisnow100pesosperU S dollar Thecountryhasfollowedapolicyofdevaluingitscurrencyagainstthedollarby10 peryeartobuildupitsexportbusinesstotheunitedstates Thismeansthateachyearthenumberofpesosexchangedforadollarincreasesby10 sointwoyears 1 10 2 121pesoswouldbetradedforonedollar laborisquiteinexpensiveinthiscountry somanagementofCMOSelectronicsfeelsthattheproposedplantwillproducethefollowingratherattractiveATCF statedinpesos 22 IfCMOSelectronicsrequiresa15 IRRperyear aftertaxes inU S dollarsonitsforeigninvestments shouldthisassemblyplantbeapproved assu