2014铁矿石价格预测.docx

2014铁矿石价格预测下图为2014年1月17日铁矿石价格表（表格为下图的翻译）：价格收盘价变动百分比铁矿石1年掉期铁矿石现货价格螺纹钢均价大商所期货价格1年铁矿石掉期价格已经破位，但从技术上看并不是非常看空。与此同时，现货价格已经跌破131美元的支撑位，在跌至110美元之前并无明显支撑。下图：铁矿石1年掉期近期，大商所6个月后交割的合约（1307合约）开始下滑，当前其价格在117美元附近，这与OREX 交易所的112美元不一样。螺纹钢价格也在下滑，在产能严重过剩背景下，螺纹钢价格深陷倒挂境地。（下图：螺纹钢均价）Lets get straight to it. Iron ore is in trouble again. The question is how much trouble?Are we seeing the leading edge of the big price falls long expected on the great supply deluge? Or are we seeing just another Chineseinventory cycle?现在说说正题：.铁矿石再次面临困境 问题是这回又有多严峻呢?在此，我们是该看到的供应严重过剩下的价格大跳水带来的好处呢，还是另一个中国的库存周期？My answer is both. The remarkable story of last years iron ore strengtharound an average of $130 was impressive. But one should always recall the long term. Reversing the perspective, despite Chinese steel production jumping a spectacular 9% last year, iron ore is stilldown$50 from its 2011 highs. This says to me that we are long passed the leading edge of the structural iron ore correction. Cyclical forces look increasingly high risk as well.我的回答的两者都应看到。去年铁矿石均价保持在130美元是个很了不得的事情，但人们应该从长远来看。尽管中国2013钢材产量增幅高达9%，与我之前看法相反的是，铁矿石价格从2011年高点下滑了50美元。这告诉我，经济结构调整予以铁矿石的美好时代已不复存在，经济的周期性成为了巨大风险。Entering 2014, on the structural front, there are two major facts to consider. The first is Chinese steel demand. As diagnosed through the second half of last year, thepresent round of Chinese growth is nota sustainable private sector growthcycle. Rather it is a lurching sequence of stimulus and tightening measures as imbalances vie with economic mandarins for control of the economy.迈入2014年这个关键时期，我们需要考虑两个因素：第一个是中国的钢材需求。通过对下半年的分析得知，中国当前的经济增长对民营经济来说是不可持续的；在政府收支失衡和经济学官员都想掌控经济的较量中，其效果更像是刺激和紧缩政策带来的不确定性。The two trillion yuan stimulus package thatrescued growth for much of last year is easing. The infrastructure pipeline is emptying:虽然2万亿元的一揽子刺激计划保证了去年经济的增速，但作用却在减弱。基建投入正在缩减：（图：新建和正在建设工程）The strong surge in real estate sales last year is also abating as various monetary and fiscal nips and tucks add up, though we may seea decent follow through this year in housing starts.由于各种货币和财政政策的限制，去年全年房产销量的强势上扬正在减退，但这与今年相当的新屋开工并不冲突。But, basically, the billion dollar question for this years steel outlook is: will Chinas planned rebalancing be allowed to proceed or will the temptation to kick the can with more stimulusprove irresistibleonce more? The realists will say inevitably. And in that event, iron ore will have a better time in the second half of this year than the first is shaping up to be.但从根本上讲，决定今年钢价走势的关键性问题是：中国政府既定的经济调整是否会继续施行或者在刺激政策看似无法避免的当下继续向前发展经济的意愿是多少。现实主义者会说：这样的事情不可避免。这种情形下，铁矿石价格在今年下半年将迎来较好时光。The other structural consideration for iron ore is the degree of supply capacity coming online in the next six months. Versus last year, another 100 million tonnes of capacity will be in operation by mid year via completions at BHPs Jimblebar, Rios Pilbara 290 and Fortescues Kings expansion.另一个重点考虑对象是今后半年铁矿石新增上线产能到底有多少。与去年相比，今年年中将有1亿吨的产能上线运行，其中包括必和必拓Jimblebar矿的完工，力拓皮尔巴拉矿290矿的完工，以及Fortescue的国王矿山的扩产项目完工。Its worth revisitingthe old supply and demand chart:修改旧版的供需平衡表就变得非常必要：India is also beginning to return, if only slowly. From Credit Suisse:印度正在恢复铁矿石供应，如果慢点会更好。苏黎世银行数据显示：（下图：印度出口到中国和日本的铁矿石数量）Moreover, Rios plans to move forward on Pilbara 360 will see supply continue to ramp up (it could bring another 30-40 million tonnes to market by year end). God help us, Roy Hill appears to be going ahead as well, with a completion date next year for another 55 million tonnes, though that is very aggressive. Vale also starts to deliver its expansions next year.此外，力拓对皮尔巴拉360矿的开采将促成供应的攀升（预计年底新增产量达到3000-4000万吨）。Roy Hill矿也走在扩产的前列，预计明年全年的新增产量将达到5500万吨，这一数据可谓相当大。淡水河谷在明年将实现扩产产量的外运。There are two mitigating factors. The first is high cost Chinese supply will be displaced in the shakeout. But the process is certain to be more slow and irrational than markets expect, just as it has been in the two coals. The second mitigating factor is the market power of the Pilbara cartel, which is substantial. But with each passing year more supply and suppliers weakens the major Australian suppliers price making power.同时也有两个缓和因素：第一个是中国的高成本铁矿石将会被挤出市场，但这个过程会比市场预期的慢和曲折，这一情况跟焦煤和动力煤市场一样。第二个是，皮尔巴拉集团的市场力量非常强大。但随着时间的流逝，铁矿石数量和供应商的增多将削弱澳大利亚主要的供应商的定价能力。In terms of market structure, then, supply is upon us and will keep coming and the growth drivers of Chinese steel demand are sputtering. I expect long term global demand for seaborne iron ore to keep growing in the low single digits as the global recovery grinds along. But as the consumer of 60% of global iron ore, the critical question is Chinese demand. If the communists stimulate again (delaying rebalancing) we can expect an iron ore average price somewhere between $110-$120 this year. If they do not then knock $20 off.就市场结构而言，供应端货源充足，中国钢厂需求的驱动因素正在减少。我预计随着全球经济的复苏，全球铁矿石海运需求还将长期以1位数增长。作为全球钢材消费大国（60%）的中国，其需求是最为关键的问题。如果共产党再次实行刺激政策（延后经济结构调整），我们预期今年铁矿石均价将保持在110-120美元之间。如果无刺激政策，铁矿石价格将下滑20美元。There are also very clear reasons to be bearish in terms of the near term Chinese stock cycle. Chinese steel mills have largely rebuilt their inventory of imported ore after the two huge rundowns of the past eighteen months. Also from Credit Suisse:从今起库存周期来看是非常值得看空的。在过去一年半内经历两轮大跌之后，中国钢厂进口铁矿石库存再次大幅爬升。同样，苏黎世银行数据显示：Port inventories are not a direct proxy for demand but do indicate something about the fullness or otherwise of the Chinese iron ore supply chain and the great pile of 2012 has also been significantly rebuilt at 91.6 million tonnes this week:港口库存并不是需求的直接体现，但能表现货物的充足性和中国铁矿石供应链的状况。2012年的高库存在经历下行后，于本周回到了9160万吨的高位。We remain below previous highs but its still an impressive hoard.尽管当前库存低于前期高点，但数量依旧是非常巨大的。In short, we are not far short of the same cyclical surplus of iron ore inventories in China that existed prior to the crash of 2012, and we are facing a similar (if slower moving) emerging crunch in demand.简单说来，我们身处中国铁矿石周期性过剩之中，2012年大跌之前有过同样的状况。同时我们面临着需求萎缩的类似局面。Cyclical factorsshouldkeep these bearish settings at bay for a little while. The first quarter is typically a very strong one for iron ore and steel. Mills build a up big inventory of steel as demand slows in the winter and then run it down over the course of the year. Here is the Chinese rebar inventory cycle courtesy of Bloomberg:周期性因素会市场在熊市中保持一段时间。第一季度就是一个非常典型的熊市。钢厂在冬季需求疲软的情况下库存大幅增加，年内高企的库存将得到缓解。下图为中国螺纹钢库存（来自彭博）As well, the cyclone season means mills rebuild their iron ore stockpiles in Q4 and hold high inventories throughout the season. As weve already seen, weather threats boost prices. However, given the slowing economy and depleting infrastructure pipeline, I would not be surprised to see this years steel inventory rebuild to be smaller than last years, which would be something of a trend break, as you can see.南半球的气旋季节（雨季）意味着钢厂将在4季度储备铁矿石库存，而且整个季节库存将维持高位。正如我们所见，天气威胁刺激价格上涨。然而，在经济放缓和基建减速的情况下，当我们发现今年钢材补库后的库存低于去年时，我们将不足为奇。如我们所见，这就打破了曾经的库存上行趋势。That the iron ore price is falling at all through this period is quite bearish.There is also the problem that with rebar prices well off the highs of last year, many steel mills are once again losing money.In the past this has triggered iron ore inventory rundowns, which would run counter to, or could overwhelm, the seasonal strength.近期铁矿石价格下跌得的确有些厉害，现实的问题还包括：螺纹钢价格在经历去年高点后，许多钢材再度进入亏损境地。在过去，亏损的境地会迫使铁矿石库存下滑，这也就削弱了季节性因素的影响。As I warned in the later months of last year, whether Q114 will be dominated by a typical spurt of iron ore demand as China moves past its new year holiday at the end of January or the current steel price squ