中国欠发达地区劳动力流动及其效应研究.doc

摘 要自20世纪80年代以来，劳动力流动和迁移成为政策层、理论界，乃至社会各界广泛关注的一个重要课题。综观现有研究，长期以来众多学者偏向对二元经济结构下的劳动力流动进行研究，认为劳动力流动促进了发达地区和整个宏观经济增长，并缩小了城乡收入差距。然而，结合我国地区经济差距与城乡收入差距的现实情况，并根据笔者在广东、浙江、江苏等发达地区和安徽、河南、陕西、四川等欠发达地区进行的问卷调查和深度访谈，笔者对现有研究的立论前提与有效性产生质疑，认为欠发达地区与劳动者尤其是农民工在高增长、工业化和城市化过程中贡献显著然而回报率、福利效应却并未得到明显改善，甚至社会角色与地位都受歧视与忽略。由此，本文将研究视角转向欠发达与发达地区之间劳动力流动的真实经济效应，并重视对欠发达地区与流动者本身的福利研究，其动因包括：其一，目前现有研究偏向发达地区；其二，尽管中国经济三十年持续高速增长，然而笔者认为，更能说明中国改革开放成就的是欠发达地区的发展与人们生活水平的提高，尤其是低收入阶层的福利改善。本文主要遵循从微观、中观和宏观三个层面依次递进的分析框架展开研究：第一章阐述了本研究的现实意义与理论意义，并对核心概念、研究方法以及可能的创新点进行了介绍；第二章则重点对国内外现有相关研究进行了动态梳理和述评，为本文的后续研究奠定了理论基础；第三章主要通过对劳动力外流成本的重新细分与界定以及现代劳动力流动理论模型的构建，分析劳动力流动决策的微观机制，为本研究的深入开展奠定了微观基础；在此基础上，第四章分析了劳动力流动对发达地区与欠发达地区经济发展的一般影响，在一定程度上更侧重对欠发达地区负面效应的研究，进而演化出劳动力流动对宏观经济增长可能带来的四个效应命题；基于以上研究，第五章则首先通过理论模型推导，分别研究了劳动力流动与地区经济增长差距、收入差距的内在关系，并基于欠发达地区与发达地区视角，结合中国的经验数据对以上的内在关系进行了实证研究，随后测度了劳动力流动对欠发达地区的产出效应；第六章则主要透析了有关劳动力流动社会经济政策的演化脉络，并着重考察了政策背景下劳动力流动对欠发达地区与劳动者微观个体的福利效应；第七章为主要结论，并对劳动力流动的政策取向进行了研究。本文的基本结论是，在微观层面，我国欠发达地区劳动力在向发达地区流动的决策中， 有意降低或规避了外流货币化成本，进而导致了外流净收益的“虚高”，与此同时，造成对自身基本福利的损害，如若将其纳入考察，劳动力流动的动态决策可能将出现新的调整；在中观层面，单纯依靠劳动力流动，地区经济增长差距和收入差距不仅没有缩小，反而在一定程度上带来了地区差距的扩大，进一步研究发现劳动力流动与地区经济差距的库茨涅茨倒U效应目前并不显著；在宏观层面，现有的宏观经济政策具有较明显的城市化倾向与发达地区指向，在一定程度上使得地区经济差距与收入差距进一步扩大，综合考察欠发达地区劳动力外流的产出负向效应以及福利未发生根本性改善，最终劳动力流动的宏观经济效应呈现“弱正效应”甚至“负向效应”的可能性加大。【关键词】欠发达地区； 劳动力流动； 地区经济差距； 福利效应； 宏观效应AbstractSince the 80 years of 20th century, labor mobility and migration has been an important subject which is concerned by the policy layer, theorists and even public in general. Overview of the existing studies, many scholars have long preferred to study the labor mobility under the context of the dual economic structure and think it contributes to developed areas, promotes the overall macro-economic growth and narrows the urban-rural income gap. However, based on the reality of Chinas regional economic disparities and urban-rural income gap and according to the writers questionnaire survey and depth interviews in the developed areas such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and in the less developed areas such as Henan, Anhui, Shanxi，Sichuan etc, the author doubts on the existing researchs argument premise and validity, reckons that the less developed regions and workers, especially migrant workers are of a significant contribution in high-growth, industrialization and urbanization process, but their return rate and welfare effect are unequal, even social roles and status are subject to discrimination and neglect. As a result, this paper shifts the research perspective to the labor mobilitys really economic effects between less developed and developed regions, and is more interested in the research of the less developed regions and the welfare mobility of labors themselves. The research is based on two motives as follows: First, the currently available researches deviate to the developed areas. Second, although of Chinas sustained rapid economic growth during three decades, but the paper thinks that the development of less developed areas and the improvement of peoples living standard, especially low-income layers welfare improvement are better to explain the achievements of Chinas reform and opening up.This paper follows the three analytical framework of micro, regional and macro level to undertake the study in proper order. Chapter 1 elaborates the theoretical and practical significance of this study, and introduces the core concepts, research methods and possible innovative points. In order to supply a theoretical foundation for the follow-up research, chapter 2 focuses on the dynamic comb and comment of the existing relevant research at home and abroad. Chapter 3 analyzes the micro-mechanism of the labor mobilitys decision-making mainly through the re-segmentation and definition of the labor outflow cost and the construction of the modern theory model of labor migration so that this lays a micro-foundation for follow-up study. On the foundation, chapter 4 studies the general impact of labor mobility on economic development in the developed and less developed areas, to a certain extent, focuses more on the negative influence on the less developed regions, and then evolves four potential effect propositions of macroeconomic growth caused by labor migration. Based on the study mentioned above, chapter 5 researches the inner relation among labor mobility, regional economic growth gap, the income gap by the derivation of theoretical model respectively, and combined with Chinas experience data, carries out an empirical study on the above inner relationship based on the perspectives of less developed regions and developed regions, and then measures the output effect of the labor movement for the less developed regions. Chapter 6 mainly analyzes the evolution of socio-economic policy about labor mobility, and emphasizes on the welfare effect of labor migration on the less developed regions and the individual under the policy background. Chapter 7 draws the main conclusions and labor mobility policy direction is studied. This paper comes to the basic conclusions as follows: At the micro level, labors migrating from less developed areas to developed areas, reduce or avoid the potential money cost on purpose, which causes the net income “unrealistically high”, at the same time, their basic welfare is damaged in China. If this is included in the labor migration model, the new adjustments of dynamic decision-making may happen. At the regional level, relying solely on the labor mobility, not only fails to reduce regional economic disparities and income gaps, but widens the regional disparities to a certain extent. By further studies, the Kuznets inverted U effect between labor mobility and regional economic disparity is not significant currently. At the macro level, the existing macro-economic policy has a more obvious tendency to the city and developed area which enlarges the regional economic disparities and income gap to a certain extent. Combined with the negative influence on output of undeveloped areas and without fundamental improvement of welfare the labour outflow causes, the possibility of the macroeconomic effect of labor migration showing “weakly positive effect”，even “negative influence” is increased ultimately.Key words: Less developed areas; Labor mobility; Regional economic disparities; Welfare effect; Macro effect目 录摘 要iAbstractiii第1章 绪论11.1问题的提出：劳动力流动的效应11.1.1从金融危机与新劳动合同法说起11.1.2问题的提出：劳动力流动是否缩小了地区差距？21.2本研究的现实意义与理论意义31.2.1现实意义31.2.2理论意义61.3 核心概念界定、主要框架结构与研究方法91.3.1 核心概念界定91.3.2 主要框架结构151.3.3 主要研究方法161.4 本研究的拓展方向与可能的创新点171.5 对本研究所开展的微观调研的说明19第2章 劳动力流动与地区差距关系的研究述评212.1国外文献综述212.2国内研究综述262.3关于劳动力流动研究现状的简要述评29第3章 劳动力流动的微观机制分析313.1近年来中国劳动力流动的一般性与特殊性研究313.1.1中国劳动力流动的一般性323.1.2中国劳动力流动的特殊性353.2劳动力流动过程中劳动者的流动决策分析463.2.1传统的劳动力流动决策分析463.2.2现代劳动力流动模型的构建513.3劳动力流动过程中厂商的用工决策分析643.3.1理论上的厂商劳动要素投入量影响分析643.3.2现实中的厂商用工决策分析663.4简要的结论68第4章 劳动力流动对欠发达与发达地区的一般影响分析694.1劳动力流动对发达地区的一般影响分析694.1.1劳动力流动对发达地区的正面效应694.1.2劳动力流动对发达地区的负面效应744.2劳动力流动对欠发达地区的一般影响分析774.2.1劳动力流出对欠发达地区的正面效应774.2.2劳动力流出对欠发达地区的负面效应784.3劳动力流动与中国宏观经济增长的关系兼对内生增长模型的拓展90第5章 劳动力流动与地区差距的扩大98基于中国欠发达与发达之间的经验研究985.1 中国地区差距的形成基于劳动力流动视角的一般阐释985.2劳动力流动是拉大还是缩小了中国区域经济增长差距？995.2.1两种对立观点：“缩小论”与“拉大论”之争995.2.2劳动力流动对地区经济差距的理论分析1035.3劳动力流动对地区经济差距的实证研究1135.3.1数据选取与描述1135.3.2计量实证模型的构建1205.3.3指标的选取说明与衡量1225.3.4数据来源与计量方法1245.3.5实证分析1255.3.6小结与进一步的说明1305.4劳动力流动与城乡收入差距的实证分析1315.4.1指标选取与数据说明1315.4.2实证分析1335.4.3简要的小结1355.5劳动力流动对欠发达地区经济产出效应的实证研究1375.5.1计量模型与分析思路1375.5.2数据的简要说明1385.5.3实证分析1395.5.4劳动力流出对欠发达地区产出损失效应的测度143第6章 中国经济社会政策与劳动力流动的福利效应研究1456.1 关于劳动力流动的经济社会政策分析1456.1.1中央政府关于劳动力流动政策的演化脉络1456.1.2发达地区地方政府对外流劳动力的相关政策与规制范式1556.1.3小结：中国外流劳动力的生存空间解析1616.2 社会经济政策背景下外流劳动力的福利效应研究1626.2.1 社会福利概念界定1626.2.2 欠发达地区外流劳动力的福利状况考察1636.2.3 小结：农民工流动的力与痛1736.3 劳动力流出对欠发达地区带来的福利效应考察1756.3.1劳动力流出对欠发达地区的福利考察1756.3.2新生代农民工的新动向与欠发达地区发展的瓶颈182第7章 结论与政策取向前瞻1877.1本文主要结论1877.1.1微观层面：劳动力外流成本细分降低流动净收益、驱动劳动力动态决策1877.1.2中观层面：劳动力流动的地区经济和城乡收入差距的“库兹涅茨倒U”效应并未显现1877.1.3宏观层面：劳动力流动给中国宏观经济带来的综合效应并不一定为正1897.2政策反思与解读1897.2.1学界对宏观经济政策与劳动力流动政策核心概念的误区1897.2.2中国宏观经济政策对劳动力市场或劳动力流动的误区分析1907.2.3对2010年中央1号文件的解读基于欠发达地区的视角1937.3政策取向选择回到金融危机和新劳动合同法1967.3.1回到金融危机和新劳动合同法1967.3.2未来的政策取向1987.4今后的研究方向201参考文献203后 记213袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇薄罿膄芃薃虿羆艿薃袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇羅膃蚈螂羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀袀螃膀薂蚃肂腿节衿羈腿莄蚂袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇羅膃蚈螂羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀袀螃膀薂蚃肂腿节衿羈腿莄蚂袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇羅膃蚈螂羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀袀螃膀薂蚃肂腿节衿羈腿莄蚂袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇羅膃蚈螂羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀袀螃膀薂蚃肂腿节衿羈腿莄蚂袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇羅膃蚈螂羁膂莈蚅袇膁蒀袀螃膀薂蚃肂腿节衿羈腿莄蚂袄芈蒇袇螀芇蕿蚀聿芆艿蒃肅芅蒁螈羁芄薃薁袆芃芃螆螂芃莅蕿肁节蒈螅羇莁薀薈袃莀艿螃蝿荿莂薆膈莈薄袁肄莇蚆蚄羀莇莆袀袆羃蒈蚂螂羂薁袈肀肁芀蚁羆肁莃袆袂肀薅虿袈聿蚇蒂膇肈莇螇肃肇葿薀罿肆薂螆袅肅芁薈螁膅莃螄聿膄蒆薇袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇薄罿膄芃薃虿羆艿薃袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇薄罿膄芃薃虿羆艿薃袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇薄罿膄芃薃虿羆艿薃袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈螇芁芇莄袀肄膃莄羂艿蒂莃蚂肂莈蒂螄芈芄蒁袆肀膀蒀罿袃薈葿螈聿蒄葿袁羁莀蒈羃膇芆蒇蚃羀膂蒆螅膅蒁薅袇羈莇薄罿膄芃薃虿羆艿薃袁节膅薂羄肅蒃薁蚃芀荿薀螆肃芅蕿袈芈膁蚈羀肁蒀蚇蚀袄莆蚇螂肀莂蚆羅袂芈蚅蚄膈膄蚄螇羁蒂蚃衿膆莈蚂羁罿芄螁蚁膄膀螁螃羇葿螀袅膃蒅蝿肈羆莁螈