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China to the rescue? The property market says no中国政府对房价动真格With inflation high and the government trying to work down its debts, China cannot afford another superhero stimulus like the Rmb4,000bn package that helped rescue the world from despair in 2008.The importance of the Chinese property sector cannot be overstated. Property construction directly accounts for nearly 15 per cent of Chinas gross domestic product and drives its demand for commodities, especially iron ore and copper. Jonathan Anderson, an economist with UBS, has called Chinese property “the single most important sector in the entire global economy”.With the real estate market looking bubbly early last year, the government introduced a series of policies to rein in prices, from higher mortgage rates to restrictions on the numbers of homes people can buy.Then, in a meeting of the Politburo, the Communist Partys top decision-making body, President Hu Jintao said that, despite Chinas agricultural outsourcing, more must be done to protect arable land from being swallowed up by construction projects a signal to slow down, not speed up, development.Beijing, it seems, has learned its lesson from 2008. Housing prices soared days after it eased its property clampdown at the time. Along with being disruptive to the economy, the stop-and-start policies undermined the governments credibility in the real estate market.This time around, Beijing is regaining credibility by staying the course on property tightening. That will be a good thing for Chinas property market in the long term. While bad news for the global economy, that China wont unveil a new stimulus is already the dominant market view.But for countries and investors hoping for a short-term boost from Chinese demand, it is one more reason to be worried.鉴于通胀居高不下,加上政府在竭力减少债务,中国没法再像2008年那样拿出4万亿元人民币的刺激措施、扮演帮助拯救世界于绝境的超级英雄。说到中国楼市的重要性,无论怎么强调都不为过。房地产建设在中国国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的直接比重接近15%,此外还拉动着对铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求。瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森安德森(Jonathan Anderson)形容中国房地产行业是“全球经济中独一无二的重要行业”。去年初,由于房地产市场出现泡沫迹象,中国政府出台了一系列政策抑制房价,包括提高按揭利率和限制个人购房数量。国家主席胡锦涛表示,必须从严控制各类建设占用耕地,尽管中国开展了农业外包。这是放慢、而非加快发展步伐的信号。看来,中国政府已经从2008年的经历中吸取了教训。当时,政府刚放松调控措施没几天,房价就开始大幅上涨。政策时断时续不仅对经济有破坏作用,也削弱了政府在房地产市场上的公信力。这次政府在楼市调控上毫不松动,重树了威信。从长远来看,这对中国楼市发展是一件好事。虽然对全球经济来说是坏消息,但是中国不会出台新刺激措施已成市场主流观点。然而,对希望从中国需求中得到短期提振的国家和投资者来说,这又是一个让人担心的理由。G7 nations in $25bn yen sell-offThe worlds most powerful central banks joined forces to sell billions of dollars worth of yen, battling speculators described as “sneaky thieves” by one Japanese official who have driven the currency to record highs.Intervention by banks including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England began in the early hours of Friday morning, after ministers from the Group of Seven most industrialised nations approved the first such co-ordinated action in more than a decade.Traders estimate that more than $25bn was spent by the worlds richest nations, a great deal of it by Japan, in an effort to drive the Japanese currency sharply lower against the dollar after it soared to a post-war high of Y76.25.The rise in the yen was the result of dealers betting that Japanese insurers and other big companies would have to repatriate funds to meet claims and pay for reconstruction. Its strength threatens to inflict further pain on Japan as it struggles with the aftermath of last weeks earthquake.News of the G7 action sent the yen tumbling, to Y81, and triggered a rebound in Japanese stocks that rippled across Europe and the US. The S&P 500 was trading 0.7 per cent higher early yesterday afternoon after the Nikkei bounced 2.7 per cent. Japanese shares still ended more than 10 per cent down on the week. “Excessive currency volatility negatively affects consumer sentiment,” said Kaoru Yosano, Japans economy minister. “The significance of the intervention is to limit share price and currency moves within market expectations.”全球最强大的几家央行联手抛售巨额日元,与近日将日元推高至创纪录高位的投机者展开较量。这些投机者被一名日本官员形容为“偷偷摸摸的盗贼”。美联储(Federal Reserve)、欧洲央行(European Central Bank)、日本央行(Bank of Japan)和英国央行(Bank of England)等央行在周五清晨出手干预,此前七国集团(G7)工业化国家的财长们批准了逾10年来首次这样的协同行动。交易员们估计,全球几个最富裕国家为此动用逾250亿美元,其中有很大一部分由日方拿出,其目的是大幅压低日元兑美元汇率,此前日元曾飙升至1美元兑76.25日元的战后最高位。日元升值的原因是,各交易商押注,日本保险商和其它大公司将必须大规模撤回资金,以满足索赔请求,并为震后重建埋单。正当日本在上周地震、海啸后百废待兴,还面临核反应堆熔毁风险之际,日元强势可能给该国带来更多痛苦。保险业面临的代价仍可能达到美国卡特里娜飓风后逾400亿美元索赔总额的创纪录水平。领先的灾难损失预报机构RMS对客户表示,该机构预期经济损失总额将达到2000亿至 3000亿美元,高于其它机构的估计数字。日本副财务大臣五十岚文彦(Fumihiko Igarashi)警告汇市,他们不应假设周五的干预只是一次性的行动。“G7国家一致认为,如果我们屈服于那些从别人的苦难谋利的投机者,日本经济将遭到毁灭,世界经济整体将受到损害,”他对路透社(Reuters)表示。“我们的立场仍然不变:对于那些就像在火灾现场偷偷摸摸的盗贼的投机者,我们将采取果断行动。”G7采取行动的消息促使日元跌至1美元兑81日元,并引发日本股市反弹,进而提振欧美股市。美国标普500(S&P 500)股指在周五午后上升0.7%,此前日经指数(Nikkei)收盘上升2.7%,尽管日本股市本周仍下跌逾10%。“这是我所见过的最透明的大规模干预行动之一。没有拐弯抹角,没有神神秘秘,”花旗集团(Citigroup)一名资深交易员表示。“这是G7授权的行动,目的是拯救日本,同时也间接地拯救全球增长的势头。它将整天、整星期地继续下去。”China cracks down on markets ratholesChinas securities regulator has banned one fund manager from the countrys capital markets for life and another for seven years in a warning to the industry to clean up lax internal controls.The two managers were banned after buying shares in companies their funds invested in and then selling them for a profit a practice known as “building a rathole” in Chinese.Tang Jian, a former manager for China International Fund Management, a joint venture between JPMorgan and Shanghai International Trade and Investment Corp, was banned for life after storing up Rmb1.53m ($220,000) in his rathole, according to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).Wang Limin, formerly a manager at China Southern Fund Management, was banned for seven years after similarly making a profit of Rmb1.5m.Both managers were also fined Rmb500,000 and had their illicit earnings confiscated.The transactions occurred in 2006 as the Chinese stock market was heating up and investors began pouring into a market that rose nearly six-fold in the two-and-a-half years to October 2007. Such punishment, and the public release of details of such cases, is a common tactic referred to as “killing the rooster to scare the monkey” used by the regulator in the face of widespread irregularities and malfeasance in the countrys capital markets.“The scale in China of corruption, poor disclosure, insider trading and market manipulation basically swamps the regulators limited resources,” said Fraser Howie, author of a book on Chinas capital markets. “This is just how the market works and these guys were either unlucky or stupid.”The CSRC issued a warning to fund management firms through state media yesterday that it was prepared to punish companies whose lax internal controls allowed managers to break trading laws and regulations.Assets under management in Chinas mutual fund industry total Rmb2,500bn, with funds controlling about 23 per cent of the market capitalisation of all tradeable shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, according to CSRC figures.中国证券监管机构对一位基金经理实行终生资本市场禁入,对另一位基金经理实行7年禁入,此举向基金管理行业发出警告,要求它们整顿松懈的内部控制。此前,这两位基金经理买进自己基金所投资的公司股票,并卖出这些股票获利,因此被市场禁入。在中文中,上述做法被称作“老鼠仓”。中国证监会(CSRC)称,上投摩根基金管理有限公司(China International Fund Management)前经理唐建被实行终身市场禁入,此前他通过“老鼠仓”非法获利153万元人民币(合22万美元)。上投摩根是摩根大通(JPMorgan)和上海国际信托有限公司(Shanghai International Trust Co., Ltd)组建的一家合资公司。中国南方基金管理公司(China Southern Fund Management)原基金经理王黎敏被实行7年市场禁入,此前他通过类似行为获利150万元人民币。两人均被罚款50万元人民币,并没收其非法所得。上述交易发生在2006年,当时中国股市正不断升温,投资者开始纷纷涌入股市,在截至2007年10月的两年半时间里,中国股市上涨近5倍。此后,基准的上证综合指数跌幅近半。上证综指昨日上涨1%,收于3,148点,因市场预期政府将推出一些新举措,以支持不断暴跌的股价。这种处罚以及公开发布此类案件细节的做法,是监管机构的一种常见策略被称之为“杀鸡儆猴”。监管机构面临着中国资本市场中普遍存在的违规和不当行为。侯伟(Fraser Howie)曾撰写过一部关于中国资本市场的著作。他表示:“中国腐败、信息披露不佳、内幕交易及市场操纵的规模,基本上是监管机构有限的资源所无法应付的。市场就是这么运行的,这些家伙要么是运气不好,要么是太笨了。”中国证监会昨日通过国有媒体警告基金管理公司,称其准备处罚那些内部管理松懈导致基金经理违反交易法规的公司。证监会还命令基金公司对投资经理在工作场所的所有沟通进行监控。根据证监会的数据,中国共同基金行业管理的资产规模总计2.5万亿元人民币,各家基金控制着在上海和深圳证交所上市交易股票23%的市值。联合国:去年全球FDI下降21%Global foreign direct investment fell more than a fifth last year, with experts warning that the drop is likely to accelerate as the global recession deepens.The UN Conference on Trade and Development, which collates official data on FDI flows, said a growth cycle in international investment, which began in 2004, was definitively over.“In the face of a global economic recession, tighter credit conditions, falling corporate profits, and gloomy prospects and uncertainties for global economic growth, many companies have announced plans to curtail production, lay off workers, and cut capital expenditures, all of which tend to reduce FDI,” Unctad said.The agency provisionally estimated that worldwide FDI inflows shrank 21 per cent last year. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions traditionally a more volatile form of capital flow than “greenfield” investment fell nearly 28 per cent.Some developed countries that have traditionally attracted large amounts of foreign investment, such as the UK, suffered particularly badly. FDI inflows into Britain fell more than half.Investment into emerging markets fared better, with developing economies as a whole seeing a 4 per cent increase in FDI and a 16 per cent rise in international mergers and acquisitions underlining the extent to which the global financial crisis has been concentrated in the rich world. The four “Brics” economies Brazil, Russia, India and China all saw increases in inflows.去年全球外国直接投资(FDI)下降逾五分之一,专家警告,随着全球衰退程度加深,FDI下降速度可能加快。 联合国贸易和发展会议(Unctad)表示,始于2004年的国际投资增长周期肯定已结束。该机构负责汇编有关FDI流动的官方数据。“面对全球经济衰退、信贷状况收紧、企业盈利下降以及全球经济增长前景黯淡且不明朗,许多公司已宣布减产、裁员以及削减资本支出的计划,这一切都会使FDI减少。”联合国贸发会议表示。该机构初步估计,去年全球FDI流入萎缩21%。跨境并购下降近28%。传统上,跨境并购是一种比“绿地投资”更加波动的资本流动方式。有些传统上会吸引大量外国投资的发达国家,比如英国,所受冲击尤其严重。流入英国的FDI下降逾一半。流向新兴市场的投资表现较好,发展中国家整体FDI上升4%,国际并购上升16%,突显出全球金融危机主要集中在富裕世界。“金砖四国”(Bric)即巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国,FDI流入均有所上升。国际投资领域的专家表示,由于经济前景变得更加黯淡,企业纷纷推迟或取消国际扩张计划,跨境流动可能进一步减少。由英国金融时报部分拥有的咨询公司OCO Global表示,目前预计2009年绿地投资项目将减少20%。许多经济学家认为,绿地投资的经济意义和效益都超过并购,因为它们会增加一国的净资本存量,增加就业,而不只是变更现有资产的所有权。China tightens liquidity to tackle inflation中国再升存款准备金率China raised banks reserve ratio requirements on Sunday, the fourth time this year that Beijing has used this tool to tighten liquidity. The move underscores Beijings commitment to monetary tightening at a time when other economies, including the European Central Bank, are also beginning monetary tightening.Chinas central bank said it was raising the reserves that commercial banks must deposit with the central bank to 20.5 per cent, an increase of 50 basis points, with effect from April 21.Controlling inflation is Chinas top economic priority this year, but monthly inflation data have remained high despite several rounds of tightening. Marchs consumer price index rose to 5.4 per cent, the highest level in nearly three years.An alternative policy option for China to tackle its domestic inflation is allowing a greater appreciation in the renminbi. But comments to the IMFs governing body in Washington over the weekend highlighted the divisions between developed and developing countries on the causes of imbalances in the global economy.Speaking to the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMFs governing body, Mr Geithner hit out at a “few emerging markets” that manage their exchange rates. His words can refer only to China but reflect US desire to tackle the renminbi as a multilateral and not a bilateral issue.“The current system of exchange rates is an obstacle to effective international co-operation on imbalances,” he said, blaming Chinas exchange rate policy for capital flows that push up the exchange rates of those emerging economies that do allow foreign funds in. 中国周日上调了存款准备金率。这是今年以来中国第四次运用这项工具收紧流动性。在其他经济体包括欧洲央行在内纷纷开始收紧银根之际,此举也突显出中国收紧银根的承诺。中国央行宣布,从4月21日起,商业银行存款准备金率将上调50个基点,至20.5%。控制通胀是中国今年首要的经济工作,然而,尽管当局采取了数次收紧动作,月度通胀数据仍然居高不下。3月份居民消费价格指数升至5.4%,达到近3年来的最高水平。在中国央行宣布上调存款准备金率之前,美国财长蒂姆盖特纳(Tim Geithner)刚刚指责国际货币基金组织(IMF)未能利用现有工具,对付中国受到严格管理的汇率。中国要解决国内通胀,除了上调存款准备金率以外,还可以允许人民币加快升值。然而,周末在IMF决策机构发表的言论,突显出发达国家与发展中国家对于全球经济失衡的根源存在分歧。这些国家相互之间迥异的政策建议,表明一旦讨论从过程转向实质问题,G20解决经济失衡的进程将遇到困难。盖特纳在向IMF的决策机构国际货币与金融委员会(International Monetary and Financial Committee)发表讲话时,抨击“若干新兴市场”实行有管理的汇率机制。他的话只能是指中国,但反映了美国把人民币作为多边问题、而非双边问题来对付的意图。盖特纳表示:“当前的汇率体系是国际社会在失衡方面进行有效合作的一个障碍。”他指责中国汇率政策导致资本流动推高了那些允许外国资金进入的新兴经济体的汇率水平。在上周IMF批评美国的财政政策之后,盖特纳反唇相讥,指责IMF未能利用现有权力对中国施加更大压力。盖特纳表示:“在IMF协议条款的现行框架内,IMF拥有必要的工具但是,正如IMF独立评估办公室所说的,这些工具没有得到充分应用。”虽然大多数G20官员赞同法国央行行长克里斯蒂安诺亚(Christian Noyer)的说法G20会议上不存在“战争”,但那是因为G20迄今着眼于过程,而非实质问题。中国汇金拟发行800亿元人民币债券The subsidiary of Chinas sovereign wealth fund that controls the countrys largest state-owned banks is planning to sell bonds in the interbank market for the first time in what could be the countrys biggest bond issue to date, according to people familiar with the matter.Central Huijin Investment, which holds the governments controlling stakes in lenders such as Bank of China and China Construction Bank, will use money from the planned bond sales to recapitalise state-owned financial institutions that have not yet been restructured.Huijins planned bond sale could be as big as Rmb80bn ($11.7bn) and the money raised will be used to inject capital into Export-Import Bank of China and China Export and Credit Insurance Corp (also known as Sinosure), according to Bloomberg.Huijin was established in 2003 to manage the recapitalisation of Chinas largest banks using a portion of the countrys foreign exchange reserves. Huijin was later merged into China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund set up late in 2007.Other institutions that have been recapitalised by Huijin and in which it holds a significant stake include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank.Analysts said that any Huijin bond sale would not need its own credit rating because Huijin is essentially an arm of the state and would receive Chinas sovereign rating.Huijin may eventually ask the Ministry of Finance to issue the bonds on its behalf, Bloomberg reported.据知情人士透露,控股中国最大一些国有银行的中国主权财富基金的子公司,拟首次在银行间市场发债,这可能是该国有史以来最大的一次债券发行。中央汇金投资公司(Central Huijin Investment)代表政府持有中国银行(BoC)、中国建设银行(CCB)等银行的控股股权。它将利用从计划的债券发行中融得的资金,对尚未重组的国有金融机构进行资本结构调整。此举还能让政府在人们日益担忧中国正形成资产泡沫之际,消除金融体系中的部分流动性。据彭博(Bloomberg)报道,汇金计划的债券发行可能多达800亿元人民币(合117亿美元),发债所募得的资金将用来注资中国进出口银行(Export-Import Bank of China)和中国出口信用保险公司(China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation,也称Sinosure)。汇金的一位发言人称不了解债券发行计划。但分析师表示,该计划将会为政府提供一个理想的方式,来调整一些金融机构的资本结构,同时还能消除金融体系中的流动性。国泰君安证券(Guotai Junan Securities)高级分析师林朝晖表示:“很有可能汇金正在考虑通过发债,在国内募集人民币资金,这样,它就可以对仍缺乏资金的国有金融机构进行投资。”汇金成立于2003年,旨在用中国的部分外汇储备,来调整中国最大几家银行的资本结构。后来,汇金并入了成立于2007年末季的主权财富基金中国投资公司(China Investment Corp)。在数年的政府指令放贷导致多数金融机构到上世纪90年代末在技术上资不抵债后,中国政府花了数千亿美元对这些机构进行纾困。其它已接受汇金注资、且汇金持有相当大股权的机构包括中国工商银行(ICBC)、中国农业银行(ABC)和国家开发银行(China Development Bank)。如果汇金的发债计划得以进行,这可能是中国机构有史以来最大的一次债券发行。其它一些国有企业及银行近月表示打算进行更大的债券发行,但迄今尚未推进相关计划。分析师表示,汇金的任何债券发行,都不会需要其自身的信用评级,因为汇金本质上是政府的一个部门,将得到中国的主权评级。彭博报道称,汇金可能最终会要求财政部(Ministry of Finance)代其发债。Alumni pay a debt of gratitudeLast october, the Wisconsin School of Business was given an unusual naming gift. As well as supporting the school and its programmes, the donation of $85m was to guarantee that the name of the school would be unchanged for at least 20 years. The gift, donated by a small group of alumni calling themselves the “Wisconsin Naming Partnership”, is one of a series of large donations that, in the past couple of years, have been finding their way to US business schools.Others include gifts to west coast schools, such as this Januarys $30m donation to California State Universitys business college the fourth largest seen in the universitys history and last Octobers $25m gift to the University of California, Berkeleys Haas School of Business the largest individual donation to the school.At Johns Hopkins University, a $50m gift in December 2006 has paved the way for the opening of the Carey Business School.Part of the reason behind the increased number of such gifts is the accumulation of wealth that has taken place in the US, combined with a growing interest in philanthropy, with prominent business individuals such as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett leading the way.Yet, athough wealthy donors can choose from a vast range of causes, management education remains a priority. Part of the reason is that most wealthy donors acquired their money through commerce and consequently often want to be able to help give others the same kind of education.Moreover, the new wave of wealthy donors is far more hands- on and impact-conscious than previous generations. Business school alumni tend to believe in the power of commerce not only to generate wealth for individuals such as themselves, but also to foster economic growth and improve lifestyles worldwide. As a result, helping fund business education is seen as having a broad impact.Once a gift is offered, schools have to make a careful assessment of the conditions attached to the donation. Prof Bosworth stresses the need to be clear with donors as to the schools objectives, and what the institution is and is not prepared to do with the funds.去年10月,威斯康星州商学院(Wisconsin School of Business)收到了一份不同寻常的命名礼物。此笔8500万美元捐赠既是为了给这家商学院及其课程提供支持,同时也是为了确保该商学院的名称至少在未来的20年内不会改变。自称“威斯康星州命名合伙人”(Wisconsin Naming Partnership)的一小群校友捐赠的这份礼物,是一系列大型捐赠活动之一。过去几年,这些捐赠方一直在寻找进入美国商学院的途径。 其它捐赠包括对美国西海岸一些商学院的捐赠,比如今年1月份捐赠加利福尼亚州州立大学商学院(California State Universitys business college) 3000万美元(额度在该校历史上排名第四);去年10月赠予加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院(University of California, Berkeleys Haas School of Business)的2500万美元(该学院接受的额度最大的个人捐赠)。去年5月,芝加哥大学商学研究所(University of Chicago Graduate School of Business)也收到了该校历史上最大的现金捐赠之一,是以一份命名礼物的形式。这份礼物来自于康尼格拉公司(Con-Agra Foods)前总裁兼首席执行官查尔斯哈珀(Charles Harper)。该研究所一栋面积达41.5万平方英尺的新建筑以他的名字来命名。2006年12月,在约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University),一笔5000万美元的捐赠为凯瑞商学院(Carey Business School)的开幕铺平了道路。此类捐赠数量的
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