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1 中国国际经济咨询公司 ViewChinaDynamically ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd NewChina 2 Changes ChancesinChina ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 Anycountryintheworldmayhavechangeseverydayintheireconomyandenvironment butChinadevelopedfasterinrecent20years Furthermore thesechangesarenotonlyquantitative butalsoessential whichareChinesecharacteristics Economysystem cultureattitude values consumptionview lawsystemandareadifferentiationareallchangingdramatically includingpoliticsystem Thesehugechangesnotonlybringmassbusinessopportunitiesandmarketspace butalsochangethebusinessopportunityandthemarket andinfluencethedevelopmentofworldeconomy Thesechangingbusinessopportunitiesandmarketcausemasschanceswithrisk KnowingthereasonanddrivingforceoftheeconomydevelopmentwithChinesecharacteristicsisanimportantfoundationofrecognizingandunderstandingthemassivemarketandproductbase andwillhelptocatchthemarketchanceintime reducetheriskofinvestmentandcooperation andforecastthefutureaccurately 3 Asabigcountrywith1 3billionpopulationwhodevelopedfastestinrecentseveralyears itsmarketandinvestmentenvironmenthavecausedmostattentionfromallovertheworld BusinessmenwhoareinterestedinChinesemarketalwayswanttoknow IsthereanyopportunityformeinChinesemarket Howtofindtheopportunity Whatisit Howtogetit IsthereanyriskinChinesemarket Whatriskisthere Howtoavoidit ThedevelopmentandgrowingupofChineseCraftbotherischanceorthreatforme DoIneedfindcooperatortodeveloptogether Orprepareforcompetitioninadvance HowshouldIjudgethefutureofChinesemarketandthefutureofChinesecraftbother PeoplegetinformationaboutChinafromdifferentmediaandbusinessmen buttheconclusionmaybedifferent evenreverse Thereasonmaybethatchangesinchinaaretoofast differentplacesinChinahavehugedifferences peoplewhovisitChinaindifferentperiodorgotodifferentregionorengageindifferentbusinessesalwaysgetdifferentimageandconclusion DifferentpeoplewillhavetotallydifferentcommentonChinaeconomyandmarket ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 4 ThedifferenceofregionChinaisacountrywithwideterritory whoseeconomyofeast west south northandmiddleregionareveryunbalanced andthewealthgapbetweencityandcountryisveryhuge ThedifferenceoftimeChineseeconomydevelopedfast butthisdevelopmentisnotonlyquantitative butisthechangeofeconomysystem socialattitude whichhaveimportantinfluencesoneconomydevelopmentandmarketdemand AttentiontotwoimportantcharacteristicsofChina North East South West 1979 2006 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 5 Thedifferencefordistrictandbetweencitiesandcountries economicdevelopmentandcharacteristicintheeast west south northandmiddleofChinahashugedifferencesthewealthgapbetweencityandcountryisveryhuge Hugedifferencescausediversificationandmulti polarizationofChinesemarketdemand whichprovideswiderspaceformarket Thedifferencerestrainsthesoaroflaborcostindevelopeddistrictandcities Thedifferenceandeconomicdevelopmentcausethechangeofmarketspaceandbusinessopportunity ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 6 thedevelopmentplanforwesternregionrejuvenatingoldindustrialbasesinnortheastChinatheconstructionofnewsocialistcountryside TheeffortsofChinesegovernmenttoeliminatethedifferencebetweenregionsandcities countries ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 7 TheChinesegovernmentconfirmedtheeconomicreformandopeninguppolicyin1979 However becauseoftheviewsdifferenceandpoliticaltheoreticaldifferences thereformandopeningencounteredalotofresistance From1979to1993 theopportunitybelongedtothenon state ownedandcollectiveenterprisesinruralareasandtowns TheChinesegovernmenthasbasicallydeterminedtoabandontheplannedeconomytowardsthemarketeconomyin1992 Thiswasthemostimportantdecision makingthatmadeChineseeconomyobtaintherealsignificantdevelopment Beginningfrom1994 Chinahasgraduallyestablishedtherelativelawsamarketeconomybadlyneeded suchas CompanyLaw LaborLaw andreformedandunified inthelightoftheaccountingsystemoftheWest theoriginalvarietyofaccountingsystem ThenChinareformedandcreatednewtaxsystem andpromotedtherapiddevelopmentoftheeconomysubstantially However thisisagradualprocessofchangeandunderstanding In1996 forpromotingthemarketeconomyandthereformofstate ownedenterprises Chinabegantopromoteacomprehensivesocialsecuritysystemintheenterprises including retirement healthinsuranceandsocialhousing whichresolvedthemaincontradictionsbetweenthedevelopmentandsocialstability Inaccordancewiththeneedsofthemarketeconomy Chinabegantoreformthegovernmentmanagementsystemandthegovernmentagenciesandtotransfergovernmentfunctionsin1996 In2001 Chinareformedthegovernment slawandregulationstomeettherequirementsandcommitmentofChina saccessiontoWTO SeveralimportantturningpointsofChinesereformandopeningup Thedifferenceoftime ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 8 79 94 86 98 06 04 02 92 96 00 90 TheLawofChinese ForeignContractualJoint 88 88 84 constitution 82 99 2004 criminallaw 79 97 WhollyForeign ownedEnterpriseLaw 2000 ThelawofChinese ForeignEquityJointVentures 1990 2001 LawofChinese ForeignContractualJoint 2000 CompanyLaw 99 06 ForeignTradeLaw 2004 AccountingLaw 85 93 00 Beamendedtwelvetimes CopyrightLaw 90 TrademarkLaw 93 01 PatentLaw 01 TheLawofCommercialBanks 04 SecuritiesLaw 2006 newlegalsystem Continuetoimproveandamendedthelegalsystem EstablishmentofImportantLegalSysteminChina ItsInfluencesonChina sEconomy ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 9 GrossDomesticProduct 1979 2005 GDP billionYuan ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 10 TotalHouseholdSavings 1990 2005 HouseholdSavings billionYuan Totalhouseholdsavingsincreasedby20timesinthepast15years ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 11 ConsumerPriceIndex 1990 2005 Previousyear sCPI 100 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 12 TherapidgrowthofRMBsavingsbalanceisthebasisofenhancingthepurchasingpowerofthemarketThestabilityofpriceIndexwillguaranteethisfoundation TheappreciationpotentialoftheRMBwillstrengthenthefoundation Changesinconsumerattitudes Potentialpurchasingpower ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 13 China sTotalInternationalTradeVolume 1990 2005 Totalinternationaltrade billionUSD TotalimportsTotalexports 1 422 560 660 762 CAGRof2000 2005is25 6 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 14 ChinainternationaltradehasbeengrowingrapidlysinceitsentryintoWTO Theaverageannualgrowthrateofinternationaltradevolumeexceeds25 ChinainternationaltradesurplushasincreasedandexceededUSD100billionin2005 TheinternationaltradesurplusforJanuarytoAugustthisyearwasUSD95billion closetothesumoflastyear ssurplus ItshowsthestrongdemandandincreasingcompetitivenessofChinesegoods butalsoimposesagrowingimpactonRMB China seconomicdevelopmentincreasinglydependsoninternationaltrade Currentlyabout78 ofitseconomyisdependentoninternationaltrade whichposesasignificantrisktoeconomicdevelopment AlotofattentionhasbeengiventotheoversurplusissuebytheChinesegovernment Inordertosolvethisproblem thekeyistoadjusttheeconomicstructure changethedriversoftradegrowthandtoincreasetheimportofadvancedtechnologiesandimportantequipment Ithasbeenclearthatthegovernmentisstudyingpreferentialpoliciesforimportantequipmentimportinkeyareas includingfavorablecredit financialsubsidyandetc inordertoencourageChinesecompaniestoimportadvancedtechnologies equipmentandkeyparts Chinesecompaniesarealsoencouragedtoinvestoverseas Chinainternationaltradedevelopmentandfutureimpact ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 15 KeycharacteristicsofChinainternationaltrade Theexportofforeigninvestedcompaniescomposesaround60 oftotalexport comparedwithlessthan1 in1985 Processingtrademakesup47 oftotalimportandexportvolume Foreigninvestedcompaniesarealsothemostimportantplayers GeneraltradeImportandexportvolumemakesupabout43 oftotalimportandexportvolume Amongallexportedgoods hightechproducts machineriesandelectronicsexportgrowsthefastest TheexportofmachineriesandelectronicswasUSD244billion implyingagrowthrateof30 5 comparedtothesameperiodinthepreviousyear Itcomposes56 9 oftotalimportandexportvolumeforthatperiod ThehightechproductsexportwasUSD123billion implyingagrowthrateof32 Theimportofindustrialgoodsisalsoincreasing Thefirsthalfof2006importwasUSD276billion implyingagrowthrateof18 2 comparedtothesameperiodinthepreviousyear Amongall theimportofmachineriesandelectronicproductsgrew26 5 theimportofcarswas104 000 implyingagrowthrateof61 3 However theimportofsteelwas9 4milliontons implyingadecreaseof28 8 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 16 TheEUcontinuestobethebiggesttradepartnerforChina Inthefirsthalfof2006 thebilateraltradebetweenChinaandtheEUwasUSD121billion implyingagrowthrateof20 9 TheUSisthesecondbiggesttradepartner Inthefirsthalfof2006 thebilateraltradebetweenChinaandtheUSwasUSD120billion implyingagrowthrate24 4 Japanisthethirdbiggesttradepartner Inthefirsthalfof2006 thebilateraltradebetweenChinaandJapanwasUSD96billion implyingagrowthrateof11 2 ASEANistheforthbiggesttradepartnerforChina Guangdong JiangsuandShanghaiprovincesimportandexportcomposesabout60 oftotalvolume KeycharacteristicsofChinainternationaltrade ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 17 BillionUSD July 956 166 286 610 819 Foreignexchangereserves ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 18 InthisFebruary China sforeignreserveshasreachedUSD853 6billion outstrippingthoseofJapantobecometheworld slargest ByendofJuly China sforeignreservesreachedUSD954 5billion ayear on yearincreaseof33 TheWorldBank sresearchreportpredictsthatChina sforeignreserveswillreachUSD2 9trillionbyyear2012 TherapidgrowthofChina sforeignreserveshasarousedconcernsfromtheChineseGovernmentanditsfinancialsupervisingorganizationswhichwilladoptsomeactionstopreventpossibleriskscausedbyexcessivelyhighforeignreservesTheexcessofforeignreserveswillpromotetheappreciationofRMB TheexchangerateofRMBagainstUSDhasincreasedatabout4 sincetheChineseGovernmentadjusteditsexchangerateson21July2005 TheexcessivegrowthofforeignreserveswillundoubtedlystimulatetheChineseGovernmenttoencourageitsenterprisestoincreaseoverseasinvestmentandtheimportofproductsandtechnologies andencouragethedevelopmentofdomesticmarketanddemand RapidGrowthofForeignReservesWillImpelChinatoIncreaseitsOverseasInvestment ProductImport ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 19 BillionUSD TheamountofforeigndirectinvestmentactuallyusedinChina ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 20 Inrecentyears thenumberandvolumeofforeigninvestorsinChinahavebeendecreasing However itisstillatahighlevelandisrelativelystable Chinesegovernmenthasbeenadjustingthepreferentialpoliciesforattractingforeigninvestors Ithasbeenfocusingmoreonthestructureoftheinvestmentratherthansheervolume InvestmentGuidanceManual andtaxadjustmentareusedtodirectforeigninvestment Moreemphasishasbeenputonhightechindustries environmentalprotectionandenergysaving Astheregulationisrelaxedforforeigninvestment foreigninvestedcompaniesaremovingfromjoint ventures partnershipstowhollyownedsubsidiaries Ontheotherhand italsoshowsthatmanyforeigninvestorsareunderstandingChina sinvestmentatmosphereandmarketmoreandmore ChangesinforeigninvestorsinChina ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 21 Billionyuan Staterevenues ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 22 Therapidgrowthingovernmentrevenuewillgreatlyenhancethecapabilityofthegovernmenttopublicfacilitiesandsocialservices education environmentalprotectioninputGovernmentprocurementreform toreplacetheoriginalopaquemannerwithopentender andimprovetransparencyandfairnessintheprocurementTherapidgrowthoffiscalrevenuewillacceleratethereformofpublicinstitutions strengthenandimprovethesocialsecuritysystemandthestablesocialorder Theeconomicimpactoftherapidgrowthofpublicfinanceincome ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 23 BillionYuan TotalFixedassetinvestment CAGRof2002 2005is27 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 24 ToofastgrowthofChina sfixedassetinvestmentisoneoftheimportantfactorsforGDPhighgrowth whichwillincreaseChina seconomicoperationrisk CurrentlyChinaistakingvariousmeasurestomitigatetheexcessiveinvestmentinfixedassets toreducetheriskofthebubbleeconomyand tostrengthenandimprovethecontrolrequirementsonenvironment energy waterandotherresourcesfortheprotectionofbalancedeconomicdevelopment Thegovernmenthasstartedtopayattentiontoandstepuptheinputandsupportintheenvironmentalprotection energy water resourceutilization improvepublichealthfacilitiesandservices Ithasdefinedthetargetinthe11thFive YearPlan Therefore therewillbemoredevelopmentopportunitiesintheseareasinthefuture ChineseGovernmentStartedActivelyToMakeAdjustmentsOnMethodsofItsEconomicGrowth ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 25 ToSeekForBusinessOpportunitiesFromTheSpecialtiesofChineseEconomicalDevelopment ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 26 ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 TheChinesegovernmentwillformulateafive yeareconomicdevelopmentgoalsanddetailplaneveryfiveyears whichcoversallareasofChina andingreatdetail Thegoalseektoincreasemoreinnumber andhaveanimportantimpactoneconomicdevelopment ThetenthFive YearPlanforthereformplanchangethemodetoformulatetheplanin2000 Theplanisaimedatkeyeconomicindicatorsandtheindustrythatthegovernmentwillfocuson theplanthatwillBeginin2006willnolongerbe plan but 11thFive year plan andabandonthepursuitofeconomicgrowthindicators andeatbalanceddevelopmentandenvironmentalprotectionandenergyconservation Anditwillhighlightthefollowingprinciples maintainingsteadyandfairlyrapideconomicdevelopment speedingupthetransformationofthemodeofeconomicgrowth enhancingthecapabilityofindependentinnovation promotingcoordinateddevelopmentofurbanandruralareas strengtheningthebuildingofaharmonioussociety continuouslydeepeningthereformandopeningup TheMaintargetsare optimizingtheeconomicstructure improvingefficiencyandloweringconsumption improvingtheefficiencyofresourceuse energyconsumptionofperunitGDPreduced20 thantheendofthe TenthFiveYearPlan curbingthetendencyofdeteriorationoftheecologicalenvironmentbasically controllingthefarmlandtoreduceexcessivesituationeffectively strengtheningindependentintellectualpropertyrightsandbrands Improvingthemarketeconomicsystem raisingthelevelofopeningup realizingthebasicbalanceofinternationalpayments consolidatingthenine yearcompulsoryeducationuniversal sustainingurbanjobs buildingarelativelysoundsocialsecuritysystem andthepopulationlivinginpovertycontinuedtodecline thelevelofincomeofurbanandruralresidentsincreasingandimprovingthequalityoflifegenerally theoverallpricelevelbasicallybeingstable thehousing transport education culture healthandenvironmentalaspectsoftheconditionshavingbeengreatlyimproved democracyandlegalsystemconstructionandspiritualcivilizationconstructionmakingnewheadway improvingpublicorderandsafetysituationfurther makingnewprogressinbuildingaharmonioussociety TheeconomicimpactofChina sfive yearplan 27 Concentratedsupplychainandnewopportunities ManyindustriesandproductsinChinahaveveryconcentratedlargeregionalmarket productioncentersandsupplychainandnetwork Examplesinclude YiwusmallproductsmarketandsurroundingmanufacturersinZhejiangProvincehasbecomeaworldfamoussupplycenterforsmallproducts QingFangChengTradingCenter inShaoxing ZhejiangProvince aswellasalargenumberofsurroundingfabriccompanieshasbecomemoreandmoreinfluentialfortheworldfabricindustrySmallelectronicsandplasticproductsinYuyao ZhejiangProvinceandtheregionTiesinShengzhou ZhejiangProvinceVegetablesmarketandprocessingfactoriesinShouguang ShandongProvinceElectronicsandelectronicpartsproductioncenterinDongguan GuangdongProvinceShoesproductioninQuanzhou FujianProvinceSoftwaredevelopmentcentersinBeijingHighlyconcentratedmarketandsupplychainmakesitconvenienttoquicklygetmarketandbusinessinformation Ithelpsthecoordinationbetweensuppliersandcustomersandisusuallystrongencouragedbylocalgovernments ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 28 Withtherapidexpansionofcitiesapopulationof150millionmobilehasappeared Economicdevelopmentandregionalimbalancepromoteda150millionpopulationintheflowinChina whichformedthelargestpopulationmovementandmigration Andthemobilityofthepopulationwasmainlyfromruraltourban fromsmalltownstolargecities fromthewestandnorthtotheeastandthesouth Thepopulationflowscausedtherapidexpansionofcities From1978to2004 urbanizationincreasedto41 8 from17 9 Theaverageannualgrowthrateofurbanizationismorethanthreetimesofthatrateinthe30yearsbeforereformandopeningup Theurbanpopulationincreasedfrom170millionto540million Thenumberofmunicipalitiesinthecountryincreasedto661from193 Aswellastheincreaseinthenumberofcities urbanareasexpanded From1978to2003 themajorcitieswhichhavemorethanonemillionpeopleincreasedfrom13to49 andfrom27to78forthecitiesof500 000to1millionpeople from59to213forthemedium sizedcitieswith200 000to500 000population andfrom115to320forthesmallcitieswithapopulationof200 000below Theimpactoftheprocessofurbanizationoninvestmentandthemarket ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 29 Themigrationtocitiesoflargenumbersofworkersnotonlychangedthecity alsochangedtheconceptofthetraditionalrurallifeandruralbusinessmodel Thegraduallyaffluentruralregionischangingandreleasethemarketdemandofa900millionruralpopulation Currentlythechangesinmarketdemandarenotonlythequantity butbegantoqualitychange whichhavecreatedahugenewmarket TheChinesegovernmentbegantopaymoreattentiontoandincreasetheconstructionof newcountryside graduallyimproveruraleducation healthandsocialsecuritysysteminruralareasandthechangesinthemarketdemandinruralareasandsmalltownshavemadesomeenterprisesgetbenefit includingtransnationalenterprises Whatchangeshasthelargemobilepopulationbrought ChinaInternationalEconomicConsultantsCo Ltd 中国国际经济咨询公司 30 Transport Car bus theMTR highways electricbicycleEnvironment wastewatertreatment waterpurification noise airpollutionandsolidwasteSecurity publicsaf
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