Risk Management Planning英文版).ppt

PMPPreparationTraining RiskManagement Chapter11 RiskManagement RiskManagementPlanningRiskIdentificationQualitativeRiskAnalysisQuantificationRiskAnalysisRiskResponsePlanningRiskMonitoring Control Processesrequiredtoeffectivelyidentify analyze andrespondtoprojectrisks RiskManagement 11 2RiskIdentification Planning 11 5RiskResponsePlanning 11 4RiskMonitoring Control Controlling 11 3RiskQualitativeAnalysis 11 1RiskManagementPlanning 11 4RiskQuantitativeAnalysis Introduction Risk EventsorconsequencesthathavetheprobabilityofoccurringduringaprojectandthataremeasuredbytheirimpactsontheprojectComponentsRiskeventRiskeventprobabilityRiskoutcomeorconsequence Amountatstake Riskeventstatus Probabilityxamountatstake ProjectRiskManagement Processesforidentifying analyzing andrespondingtoprojectrisk Itincludesmaximizingtheprobabilityandtheresultsofpositiveevents opportunities andminimizingtheprobabilityandconsequencesofadverseevents risks ProjectRiskLifeCycle RiskvariesthroughoutthelifecycleRiskishighintheconceptanddevelopmentphases decreasingasworkisaccomplishedAmountatstakeislowintheearlyphasesandincreasesasworkisaccomplishedTheareaofoverlapisknownasthehigh riskimpactarea RiskManagementPlanning Decidinghowtoapproachandplantheriskmanagementactivitiesforaproject RiskManagementPlanning OutputsRiskManagementPlan InputsProjectCharterRiskManagementPoliciesDefinedRoles ResponsibilitiesStakeholderRiskToleranceRiskManagementPlanTemplateWBS Tools TechniquesPlanningMeetings Inputs ProjectCharterOrganization sriskmanagementpolicies predefinedapproachestoriskanalysisandresponseDefinedroles responsibilities andauthoritylevelsfordecision makingStakeholderrisktolerances expressedinpolicystatementsoractionTemplateforriskmanagementplanWBS RiskManagementPlanning Tools Techniques PlanningmeetingstodeveloptheriskmanagementplanAttendeesincludeprojectmanager projectteamleaders keystakeholders anyoneresponsibleforplanningandexecutingactivities RiskManagementPlanning Outputs RiskManagementPlanMethodology definesapproaches tools anddatasourcesthatmightbeusedtoperformriskmanagementontheprojectRoles Responsibilities definesthelead support andriskmanagementteammembershipforeachtypeofactionintheplanBudget Timing Describeshowoftentheriskmanagementprocesswillbeperformedthroughouttheprojectlifecycle Scoringandinterpretation methodsusedforperformingqualitativeandquantitativeriskanalysisThresholds thetargetagainstwhichtheprojectteammeasurestheeffectivenessofthetheriskresponseplanexecutionReportingformats defineshowtheresultsoftheriskmanagementprocesseswillbedocumented analyzed andcommunicatedtotheprojectteamandstakeholdersTracking Documentsallfacetsofriskactivitiesandhowtheriskprocesswillbeaudited RiskManagementPlanning RiskIdentification Internalrisks ThingsthattheprojectteamcancontrolorinfluenceExternalrisks ThingsbeyondthecontrolorinfluenceoftheprojectteamRiskidentificationisconcernedwithopportunities positiveoutcomes aswellaswiththreats negativeoutcomes Determiningwhichrisksarelikelytoaffecttheprojectanddocumentingthecharacteristicsofeach RiskIdentification TypesBusiness profitorloss andinsurable loss KnownknownTotalcertaintyKnownunknownDegreeofuncertaintyUnknownunknownTotaluncertaintyCategoriesExternal unpredictableRegulatory etc External predictableMarketrisksInternal non technicalManagementTechnicalDesignLegalContractual RiskIdentification OutputsRisksTriggersInputstootherprocess InputsRiskManagementPlanProjectPlanningOutputsRiskCategoriesHistoricalinformation Tools TechniquesDocumentationReviewsInformationGatheringTechniquesChecklistsAssumptionsAnalysisDiagrammingTechniques Inputs RiskManagementPlanProjectPlanningOutputsProjectcharterWBSProductdescriptionSchedule costestimatesResourceplanProcurementPlanAssumptionsandconstraintlists RiskIdentification Inputs RiskCategories SeeNotePages Technical quality orperformancerisksProjectManagementrisksOrganizationrisksExternalrisksHistoricalInformationProjectfilesPublishedinformation RiskIdentification Inputs cont Historicalinformation AvailablefromtheFollowingsourcesProjectfiles RecordsofpreviousprojectsCommercialdatabases HistoricalinformationavailablecommerciallyProjectteamknowledge RiskIdentification Tools Techniques DocumentationReviewsInformation gatheringtechniquesBrainstormingDelphitechniqueInterviewingStrengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats SWOT analysisChecklists Organizedbysourceofrisk RiskIdentification Tools Techniques AssumptionsAnalysis techniquethatexaminesthevalidityofassumptionstoidentifyriskstoprojectbecauseofinvalidassumptionsDiagrammingtechniques CauseandeffectdiagramsusedtoidentifycausesofrisksSystemorprocessflowchartsthatshowhowvariouselementsofasysteminterrelateandthecausesofrisksInfluencediagramsthegraphicallyrepresentaproblemshowingcausalinfluences timeorderingeventsandotherrelationshipsamongvariablesandoutputs RiskIdentification SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Internal External BuildOn EliminateorReduce Mitigate Exploit RiskIdentification Outputs PotentialRiskEvent IdentifydiscreteoccurrencesthatmightaffecttheprojectTriggers RisksymptomsorwarningsignsthatindicateariskevenhasoccurredorisabouttooccurInputstootherprocesses mayidentifyaneedforfurtheractivityinanotherareaRisksareofteninputtootherprocessesasconstraintsorassumptions RiskIdentification QualitativeRiskAnalysis Theprocessofassessingtheimpactsandlikelihoodofidentifiedrisks Qualitativeriskanalysisrequiresthattheprobabilityandconsequencesoftherisksbeevaluatedusingestablishedqualitative analysismethodandtools QualitativeRiskAnalysis OutputsOverallriskrankingListofprioritizedtasksListofrisksforadditionalManagement AnalysisTrendsinresults InputsRiskManagementPlanIdentifiedrisksProjectstatusProjecttypeDataPrecisionScalesofprobability impactAssumptions Tools TechniquesRiskprobability impactRiskratingmatrixProjectassumptionstestingDataprecisionranking Inputs RiskmanagementplanIdentifiedRisks evaluationofrisksidentifiedduringtheriskidentificationprocessandtheirpotentialimpactsontheprojectProjectStatus identificationofrisksastheprojectprogressesthroughitslifecycleProjectType determinestheamountofriskCommonorrecurrenttypehavelessriskState of the art firsttimetechnology orhighlycomplexprojectshavemorerisk QualitativeRiskAnalysis Inputs cont DataPrecision measurestheextentofdataavailable aswellasthereliabilityofthedataandsourceofthedataScalesofProbabilityandImpact assessthetwokeydimensionsofrisk probabilityofoccurringandimpactonproject Assumptions QualitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques RiskProbabilityandImpactRiskprobability isthelikelihoodthatariskwilloccurRiskconsequences istheeffectonprojectobjectivesiftheriskeventoccursProbability ImpactRiskRatingMatrix RiskProbabilityScalefallsbetween0 0 noprobability and1 0certainty Ordinalscale ranked orderscale suchasverylow low moderate high andveryhighCardinalscale assignvaluestotheseimpacts Thesevaluesareusuallylinear 1 3 t 7 9 ornonlinear 05 1 2 4 8 Seenotepages QualitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques ProjectAssumptionTesting Assumptionsaretestedagainsttwocriteria assumptionstabilityandtheconsequencesontheprojectiftheassumptionisfalseDataPrecisionRanking isatechniquetoevaluatethedegreetowhichthedataisusefulExtentofunderstandingoftheriskDataavailableabouttheriskQualityofthedataReliabilityandintegrityofthedata QualitativeRiskAnalysis Outputs OverallRiskRanking indicatestheoverallriskpositionofaprojectrelativetootherprojectsbycomparingriskscoresListofPrioritizedRisks Groupedby Rank high moderate low ThoserequiringimmediateresponseandthosethatcanbehandledatalaterdateThosethataffectcost schedule functionality andquality Significantrisksshouldhaveadescriptionofthebasisfortheassessedprobabilityandimpact QualitativeRiskAnalysis Outputs cont ListofRisksforAdditionalAnalysisandManagement moderateandhighrisksarecandidatesformoreanalysis includingquantitativeandriskanalysis andriskmanagementactionTrendsinQualitativeRiskAnalysisResults Astheanalysisisrepeated atrendofresultsmaybecomeapparent andcanmakeriskresponsemoreorlessurgentandimportant QualitativeRiskAnalysis QuantitativeRiskAnalysis DetermineprobabilityofachievingaspecificprojectobjectiveQuantifytheriskexposurefortheproject anddeterminethesizeofcostandschedulecontingencyreservesthatmaybeneededIdentifyrisksrequiringthemostattentionbyquantifyingtheirrelativecontributiontoprojectriskIdentifyachievableandrealisticcost schedule orscopetargets Measuringnumericallytheprobabilityandconsequencesofrisksandestimatingtheirimplicationforprojectobjectives QuantitativeRiskAnalysis OutputsPrioritizedListofQuantifiedRisksProbabilityAnalysisoftheprojectProbabilityofachievingthecostandtimeobjectivesTrendsinQuantitativeRiskAnalysisResults InputsRiskManagementPlanListofprioritizedrisksListofrisksforadditionalManagement AnalysisHistoricalInformationExpertJudgmentOtherPlanningOutputs Tools TechniquesInterviewingSensitivityAnalysisDecisionTreeAnalysisSimulation Inputs RiskManagementPlanIdentifiedRisksListofPrioritizedRisksListofRisksforAdditionalAnalysisandManagementHistoricalInformation onprior similarcompletedprojects studiesofsimilarprojectsbyriskspecialists andriskdatabasesavailableExpertJudgment inputsfromtheprojectteam othersubjectmatterexpertswithintheorganization andoutsidesourcesOtherPlanningOutputs schedulelogicanddurationestimates WBSlistofallcostelements andmodelsofprojecttechnicalobjectives QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques Interviewing projectstakeholdersandsubject matterexpertstoquantifytheprobabilityandconsequencesofrisksonprojectobjectivesTheinformationneededdependsuponthetypeofprobabilitydistributionsthatwillbeused QuantitativeRiskAnalysis ProbabilityLikelihoodofoccurrence Numberofoccurrencesofaneventdividedbythetotalnumberofallpossibleoccurrences StatisticsMean AverageofthevaluesofeventsMode ValuewhichoccursmostoftenMedian ValueinmiddleoftherangeoforderedvaluesVarianceAverageofthesquareddeviationsfromthemeanStandarddeviation SquareRootoftheVarianceRange Valuesbetweenupper lowerlimits Tools Techniques cont QuantitativeRiskAnalysis 2standarddeviations 1 68 26 4standarddeviations 2 95 46 6standarddeviations 3 99 73 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 NormalDistributionCurve QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Threevalueswithprobabilities usedtocalculateexpectedvalues Optimistic Mostlikely Pessimistic Tools Techniques cont e g Optimistic0 2x 100K 20KMostLikely0 6x 130K 78KPessimistic0 2x 180K 36KExpectedValue 134K QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques cont WhatistheprobabilitythatProjectBwillbeselectedandwillbesuccessful Example Answer 0 35 QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques cont Probabilitydistribution Methodofmoments CalculatesprojectrangeestimatesExpectedmonetaryvalue ProbabilitytimescostThreevalues low a mostlikely m andhigh b withprobabilitiesforeach usedtocalculateexpectedvalue QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques cont BetaDistribution TriangularDistribution Mean a m b 3Variance b a 2 m a m b 18 UsingPERTapproximationsMean a 4m b 6Variance b a 6 2 QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques SensitivityAnalysis determineswhichriskshavethemostpotentialimpactontheprojectDecisionTreeAnalysis useofadiagramthatdescribesadecisionunderconsiderationandtheimplicationsofchoosingoneoranotheroftheavailablealternativesIncorporatesprobabilitiesofrisksandthecostsorrewardsofeachlogicalpathofeventsandfuturedecisionsSolvingthedecisiontreeindicateswhichdecisionyieldsthegreatestexpectedvaluewhenalltheuncertainimplications costs rewards andsubsequentdecisionsarequantified QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques cont Decidenottopursue 0 ProductionSuccessfulProbability 0 7 HighDemandProbability 0 3 550 000 DecisionTrees ProductionUnsuccessfulProbability 0 3Terminate 200 000 Decidetopursue LowDemandProbability 0 7 100 000 ExpectValueofPursuingProjectA0 7x0 3x 550 000 115 5000 7x0 7x 100 000 49 0000 3x 200 000 60 000 6 500 TheexpectedvalueofProjectAis 6 500 Theexpectedvalueofnotprecedingis 0 Precedingisthelucrativeoption QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Simulation UsesamodelorcopyofasystemtoanalyzethebehaviororperformanceofthesystemMonteCarlo Perform projectmanytimestoprovideastatisticaldistributionofcalculatedresultsUsesresultstoquantifytheriskofvariousschedulealternatives differentprojectstrategies differentpathsthroughthenetwork andindividualactivitiesCanbeusedtoassesstherangeofpossiblecostoptions Tools Techniques cont QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Tools Techniques cont ResultsfromaMonteCarloSimulationofaProjectSchedule ThisS curveshowsthecumulativeprobabilityofprojectcompletionbyaparticulardate Forexample theintersectionofthedashedonesshowsthatthereisa50percentprobabilitythattheprojectwillbefinishedwithin145daysofitsstart Projectcompletiondatestowardthelefthavehigherriskwhilethosetowardtherighthavelowerrisk QuantitativeRiskAnalysis Outputs PrioritizedListofQuantifiedRisks risksthatposegreatestthreatorpresentthegreatestopportunitytotheprojecttogetherwithameasureoftheirimpactProbabilisticAnalysisoftheProject forecastspotentialprojectscheduleandcostresults listingthepossiblecompletiondatesorprojectdurationandcostswiththeirassociatedconfidencelevelsProbabilityofAchievingCostandTimeObjectives underthecurrentprojectplanandwiththecurrentknowledgeoftherisksfacingtheprojectTrendsinQuantitativeRiskAnalysisResults asanalysisisrepeated atrendofresultsmaybecomeapparent QuantitativeRiskAnalysis RiskResponsePlanning Processofdevelopingoptionsanddeterminingactionstoenhanceopportunitiesandreducethreatstotheproject sobjectives Riskresponseplanningmustbeappropriatetotheseverityoftherisk costeffectiveinmeetingthechallenge timelytobesuccessful realisticwithintheprojectcontext agreeduponbyallpartiesinvolved andownedbyaresponsiveperson RiskResponsePlanning InputsOpportunitiesThreatsandrisks Tools TechniquesAvoidanceTransferenceMitigationAcceptance OutputsRiskmanagementplanInputstootherprocessesContingencyplansReserves Mitigation Contractualagreements Tools Techniques Mitigation Correctiveaction Avoidance Prevention Acceptance Acceptconsequences RiskResponsePlanning Transference ShiftResponsibility Tools Techniques cont Avoidance ChangeprojectplantoeliminatetheriskorconditionortoprotecttheprojectobjectivesfromitsimpactTransference ShifttheconsequencesofarisktoathirdpartytogetherwiththeownershipoftheresponseMitigation Reducetheprobabilityand orconsequencesofanadverseriskeventtoanacceptablethresholdAcceptance Donotchangeprojectplan butdevelopacontingencyplanshouldtheriskeventoccur Tools Techniques ExpectedmonetaryvalueEstimateoftheprobabilitythattheriskeventwilloccurEstimateofthegainorlossthatwillbeincurrediftheriskeventdoesoccurRiskeventsreflectbothtangiblesandintangiblesStatisticalsums Calculationoftherangeoftotalprojectcosts basedonthecostestimatesforindividualworkitems Usedtoquantifytherelativeriskofalternativeprojectbudgetsorproposals QuantificationRiskAnalysis Inputs Opportunities Ignoreorpursue Threatsandrisks Ignore acceptorpursue RiskResponseDevelopment Tools Techniques Procurementorcontracting AcquiringgoodsorservicesfromoutsidetheimmediateprojectorganizationContingencyplanning DefiningactionstepstobetakenifanidentifiedriskoccursAlternativestrategies RiskscanbepreventedoravoidedbychangingtheplannedapproachInsurance orBonding RiskResponseDevelopment Outputs Riskmanagementplan Partoftheprojectplan itisusedtodocumenttheproceduresthatwillbeusedtomanageriskthroughouttheprojectShouldcontain ResultsoftheriskidentificationandriskquantificationprocessesWhoisresponsibleformanagingvariousareasofriskHowtheinitialidentificationandquantificationoutputswillbemaintainedHowcontingencyplanswillbeimplementedHowreserveswillbeallocated RiskResponseDevelopment Outputs cont ContingencyPlans Pre definedactionstepstobetakenifanidentifiedriskeventshouldoccurReserves Mitigation ProvisionintheprojectplantomitigatecostandscheduleriskContractualagreements Maybeenteredintoforinsurance services andotheritems asappropriate inordertoavoidormitigatethreats RiskResponseDevelopment ClassesofContractualDocuments Spectrumofrisk RiskResponseDevelopment InsurableRisk Directpropertydamage Insuranceofprincipalassets e g equipment materials property autoIndirectconsequentialloss Indirectlosssufferedbythirdparty resultingfromactionsbythecontractorLegalliability Designerrors publicbodilyinjury project performancefailurePersonnel BodilyinjuryWrap upinsurance Alltheaboveintegratedintooneagreement usuallyprovidedbytheowner RiskResponseControl RiskResponseControl Providinganapproachformonitoringandcontrollingtherisk eventoccurrence inaccordancewiththeriskmanagementplan RiskResponseControl InputsRiskmanagementplanActualriskeventsAdditionalriskidentification ToolsWork aroundsAdditionalrisk responsedevelopment OutputsCorrectiveactionUpdatestoRMP Inputs RiskResponseControl Riskmanagementplan RMP Actualriskevents ThoseeventswhichoccurandarerecognizedbythePMteamAdditionalriskidentification Tools Techniques Work arounds UnplannedresponsestonegativeriskeventsAdditionalrisk responsedevelopment Iftheriskeventwasnotanticipated theplannedresponsemaynotbeadequate anditmaybenecessarytorepeattheresponsedevelopmentprocess andperhapstheriskquantificationprocess aswell RiskResponseControl Outputs Correctiveaction PerformingtheplannedriskresponseUpdatestotheRMP Asanticipatedriskeventsoccur orfailtooccur andasactualrisk eventeffectsareevaluated estimatesofprobabilitiesandvalues aswellasotheraspectsoftheriskmanagementplan shouldbeupdated RiskResponseControl RiskMonitoring Control Theprocessofkeepingtrackoftheidentifiedrisks monitoringresidualrisksandidentifyingnewrisks ensuringtheexecutionofriskplansandevaluatingtheireffectivenessinreducingrisk RiskMonitoring Control InputsRiskmanagementplanRiskresponseplanProjectcommunicationAdditionalriskidentification analysisScopechanges ToolsProjectriskresponseauditsPeriodicprojectriskreviewsEarnedvalueanalysisTechnicalperformancemeasurementAdditionalriskresponseplanning OutputsWork aroundplansCorrectivea