气候变化：十年形势变迁.doc

气候变化：十年形势变迁简介2000年，华盛顿世界观察（ Worldwatch)智囊团的科学家与联合国联手合作，确定未来几年地球的最大威胁。生态系统崩溃高居榜首。如今气候变化问题依然处于世界议事日程首位，到底为什么？北京以东100公里的玉田，骑自行车的人穿过一家工厂散发出的浓厚污染空气。2008年，北京赶上美国，成为世界最大温室气体排放国如今中国正率领世界推出技术解决办法。图片来源：AFP/Getty天哪，变化多大啊！2000年，来自华盛顿世界观察（ Worldwatch)智囊团的科学家与联合国联手合作，确定未来几年地球的最大威胁。高居榜首的是生态系统的崩溃，如滥砍滥伐和珊瑚死亡；第二是健康与疾病，如非典和爱滋病；第三是全球性贫困。在长达八页的论文中，这些世界顶级分析家留给气候变化的篇幅只有四个段落略高于疟疾、贸易、空气污染、人口、淡水或粮食。他们报告说，碳排放量“正在降低”，全球气温“稳定”。多奇怪啊。十年以后，气候变化依然处于国际议事日程最前列。世界陷入出奇复杂的减排谈判困境之中，环保组织和政府异口同声地高呼，我们只有几年的时间来避免大灾难。融化冰流上的北极熊已经成为这十年的标志图像；企业标榜自己是环保的；我们换了灯泡；风力发电开始起动。正如艾尔戈尔这位美国民主党2000年新总统候选人所说，“如今，我们都成了环保人士。”这一切都发生在十年之内？到底发生了什么？气候变化以及与气候有关的暴风雨灾难紧随着科学发展而迅速增长。2000年1月，莫桑比克的大洪水造成数百万人流离失所，为未来的形势作了标记。几个月之内，印度遭受最严重的干旱袭击，柬埔寨和泰国洪水造成四百五十万人无家可归。至2003年，创记录的台风飓风、热浪、干旱、火灾、旋风和洪灾夺去千百万人的生命。2003年的欧洲热浪创下了英国的气温记录，造成三万人死亡，使气候变化接近了家园。但是，确定地球处于困境大思路的也许是2004年印度洋的海啸。那次海啸中的死亡人数超过三十万。它与全球变暖无关，却突出了大自然力量的概念。八个月之后，卡特里娜飓风席卷路易斯安那州部分地区，同时引发美国对气候变化的怀疑。与此同时，更多的研究把极端气候事件与人为的碳排放联系起来。个别持异议的人声称，气候变暖是自然现象，与太阳黑子有关，对英国的葡萄种植有好处。然而，2007年，英国气象局宣布，在过去十三年中，有十一年创了最暖记录，而2000年联合国气候科学家的共识称，气候变化不只“是明确的”，而且大部分是人为造成的。2000年，企业刷绿行动达到新高。英国石油为自己的商标更名为“超越石油”，全球核工业称自己是“环保不可或缺的”。随后，该行动波及到华尔街及纽约市；至2007年，纽约的莱曼兄弟建立了企业内部的全球气候变化理事会。在露天煤矿、油井设备和多功能跑车厂增加了巨额资金的同类公司开始建议客户“从事环保”。2006年，英国财政部前世界银行经济师尼古拉斯斯特恩报告说，在气候变化中的世界照常经营意味着经济的崩溃。政治家、企业家、银行家以及媒体看到新兴的碳市场和新技术上的美元符号，都跳上环保快车。其实，还有几项重要事件为环保的十年下了定义。一个是中国2008年正式赶上美国成为世界最大的温室气体排放国。中国的冲刺发展比得上西方的消费繁荣以及利用来自世界各地的林木、矿物和燃料。但是，在十年的中期，中国科学家和政治家看到了地下水位暴跌，煤炭污染令人窒息，并意识到这种情况不能再继续下去了。如今，中国正领导世界推出技术解决办法。在这十年，世界人口从刚过六十一亿增加到约六十九亿。这种增长相当于约十二个新英国，或三个新美国，或一个新非洲；或几乎正好是生活在1750年的人口总数。大多数人出生在贫穷国家，远离西方的视线，不过，很显然，人口和气候将确定未来的世纪。随着2009年结束，气候形势似乎更加严峻，超出了人们的想像如果再不改变现状，那么在五十年内，气温肯定会上升4度。但是，正如2000年暴风雨前的平静，因为经济衰退暂时减少了工业生产和消费，现在气温稳定，碳排放量降低。那么，滥砍滥伐、珊瑚礁消逝、淡水损耗、全球性疾病增加、污染和联合国担心的那种贫困又怎么样呢？The environment in the decade of climate changeCyclists pass through thick pollution from afactory in Yutian, 100km east of Beijing.In 2008, Chinaovertook the US as theworlds biggest greenhouse gas emitter but is now world leader in rolling out technological solutions. Photograph: AFP/GettyMy, how things have changed! In 2000, scientists from the Worldwatch thinktank in Washington teamed up with the UN to spot the greatest threats tothe planet over the coming years. Top of the list was ecosystem collapse, such as deforestation and the demise of corals; second were health and diseases, such as Sars and Aids; and third was global poverty. The worlds top environmental analysts gave climate change only four paragraphs in an eight-page essay little more than malaria, trade, air pollution, population, fresh water or food supplies. Carbon emissions, they reported, were continuing to decline and global temperatures were steady.How quaint. Ten years later, climate change is equal top of the international agenda. The world is locked into insanely complex talks to reduce emissions, and green groups and government shout as one that we have only a few years to avoid apocalypse. The polar bear on the melting ice flow has become an iconic picture of the decade, business has painted itself green, weve changed our lightbulbs and wind power has taken off. As Al Gore in 2000 the new presidential nominee of the Democratic party said, We are all environmentalists now.All this in a decade? What on earth happened?Climate change took off on the back of science and a storm of weather-related disasters. The huge floods in Mozambique that displaced millions of people in January 2000 laid down amarker of what was to come. Within months, India was struck by one of its worst droughts, and4.5 million people were made homeless byfloods in Cambodia and Thailand. By 2003, record numbers of cyclones, hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, fires, whirlwinds and floods killed tens of thousands of people.It took record temperatures in Britain and 30,000 people to die in the 2003 European heatwave to bring climate change closer to home, but what perhaps clinched the big idea that Earthwas in trouble was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed more than 300,000 people. It had nothing to do with global warming but it reinforced the idea of the power of nature. Eight months later, Hurricane Katrina swept away partsof Louisiana along with much of the USs scepticism for climate change.Meanwhile, more studies linked weather extremes to man-made emissions. Isolated contrarians claimed warming was natural, linked to sunspots and would be good for growing grapes in Britain. But in 2007 the Met office announced that 11 of the last 13 years had been the warmest on record, while a consensus of 2,000 UN climate scientists said climate change was not just unequivocal but most of it was man-made.Corporate greenwash reached new heights in 2000, with BP rebranding itself Beyond Petroleum and the global nuclear industry calling itself environmentally indispensable. The action then moved to Wall Street and the City; by 2007, Lehman Brothers in New York had set up an internal global council on climate change, and thesame companies that had grown fat financing opencast coal mines, oil rigs and SUV plants began advising clients to Get Into Green.In 2006, Nicholas Stern, a former World Bank economist at the UK Treasury, reported that business as usual in a climate-changing world meant economic meltdown. Politicians, industry, bankers and the media jumped aboard the green express, seeing dollar signs in emerging carbon markets and new technologies.In fact, several other important events defined the environmental decade. One was China, which in 2008 officially overtook the US as the worlds biggest greenhouse gas emitter. Its dash for development matched the wests consumption boom, and sucked in forests, minerals and fuel from all over the world. But by mid-decade its scientists and politicians had seen the plunging water tables, choked on the coal pollution and realised that it could not continue. China now leads the world in rolling out technological solutions.Over the decade, the worlds population grew from just over 6.1 billion to about 6.9 billion. Thatincrease is equivalent to nearly 12 new Britains, or three new Americas, or a new Africa; or almost exactly the number of people alive in 1750. The majority were born in the