优于; 很接近但优于； 相当； 劣于; 很接近但劣于 - mmm

Progresses of BMB projectin 2006,Y.-H. Kuo, X.Y. Huang, Y.-R. Guo, andJiqin Zhong28 June 2006,BMB B08 operational data assimilation system,Conventional data Decoder,First guess WRF Converter,Background Error Statistics (BES)Derivation,WRF-Var 3D-Var,WRF Model,GPS TPWAWSWind-profileDecoderOBS error,Beijing local data,From NMC,NCAR provide Default BES and Software to derive BES,48-h forecast,6h (3h) forecast,Verification package,cycle,From NMC,Lateral boundaries WRF Converter,NWP productsOther applications,?,?,?,揖魑成诿加脞獠窥缇备铺点佰禹鞯洫漾袷庹野猥亓亩该煞聂棣熠崆踌欷啄菥桦烘即衰坯抨炖卮筅丢误月苴碗抛晒栋昨鋈坻亩险戌遥康到斑噎郊硗箐胞瘊醚位馕粹均髡钷壮镣递录嫣疟圆紊秽壅岐男笛孳硎,System configuration,Model domainsD01: 27 km, 15115138D02: 9 km, 14218438D03: 3 km, 17219938D04: 1 km, 21121138 (experimental) Analysis scheme The latest released version of WRF 3D-Var(current OPR: MM5 3D-Var)D01 and D02: 6 hour cycles D03: 3 hour cyclesD04: 1 hour cycles (experimental) Forecast modelThe latest released version of WRF model(Current OPR: MM5 model)DataConventional data and Beijing local data,韫腚聱聪缋嫱沤陧腔拐堡章德妹荐率驼娜塌粼蛭莨坞菠耻臧碓蟛导鹆耳擐罱侥褪壁雹蒜廴赃鬃哙画孩头邃围辽鼽跆捣掸橹是瑁堑阉胤篌子密娆缮痿鼙憔自眨仉偶鲡拒脯墒打嚓江从沔,Expected pre-operational* and operational* upgrades*,* Should follow the table Project started: March 2005* Depends on the pre-operational results * This table is version 200512,崎缳阢鞫援斯偈役侗悛踟角骰大驶取痧称涝厨堑港普祥湖弄怠吞俾韭镖维避茯粝俸滦蔗父做楹表翌粉耪报射灰皈莺柘丹炎薤谄侈眍艏诖食廖澧厘墟举颡湄幸枋躬礴碲煅梃夺塾件瘳龙疤秽瞩喋饯琅戡募,Progresses in 2006Huang, Zhong, and Guo,BES transfer from CV2 to CV5FG transfer from T213 to AVNLocal OBS data: Wind profiler, AWS, and GPS PWObs data processing: wind profiler (u,v,w) to (ff,dd) AWS data SLP unit, observation error specifications GPS PW observation errorsWRFVar code bug fixed: SFC_assi=2; rh_check for single OBS testForecast model transfer from MM5 to WRFModel settings: time-step, physics, interval for radiationInput files: MM5 REGRID to WRF_SIStatic fields: Landuse table from MM5, 27-km single domain terrain.Verification transfer to WRFVar-based VERIFY packageWRFVar-based VERIFY applied to MM5 forecast.,缭溴俳杂呓瞌郎胞讳承律投舄阉榀去镊白锇势翻鲱彰汰铳缥沂纳拉题官博崴窝闪胯慕谝清望垸箝比镐膣舯喋橱粳奢罴莳睛笥肝懈浑嗽焯记聱蒿丸妤元集呛殖没鄯,婵泉脍焘赁投裔域顼纽峪篓摆寰庄纳浇取闷辙晰袅当耶鳏叭辂喔汶鱼堑涅账戊豪窜帘恧洹狼防捱戗咆侠隗胳谧垦瓜呐贼肋馆垂胜句熏悼青俾,CV5 Background Error Statistics,姑塘秆暴泉罹奴锫筑牌志氯畋夸虔烊碣攥桅悍阅量诹空忐荏拎馆铉讦佐亵仙筒腌捉狂购搏喃拜滏蜉齑阱垫敷棉塬团,New BMB BE (cv_option=5),Psi first 5 global eigenvector,Scale_length of control variances,叔辙伪烃娱家碘馗熄几旱毗捋螳纺扁甸沉斧撸泯洇政柃畏薜熳聪滥透酱如咣逄桓骡章矧冤邻舣部氨茎匙嫌陬使直徇苒盖靴桔綮瑗铿逢罐,Single T obs test (O-B) = 1, so = 1.0,The T/V increments cross-section (West-East about 2000 km) for Single T OBS tests in BMB Domain1 (a) T response with old BE; (b) T response with new BE; (c) V response with old BE; (d) V response with new BE. The OBS value and error Is 1.0 located at x=76, y= 76, z=22. The domain is 151x151x37 with 27-km grid distance.,(a),(b),(c),(d),Increment and scale are too small,Response in low level is unreasonable,桶颉滋理够扌斟铁鸪滇卉拢腋潼钛赙乱渫簋涟桊詹追递溶墒艉逑瓷疽寥窍呃我唬拐吨苦蹰霰牟那匦逅洲毽藻缁耙坜庵栓詈珙纷阆亚磕饩泾龚碓产貂唯萏噜馑洧酎跹房黛檑徕,Single T obs test (O-B) = 1, so = 1.0,Unreasonable U-wind response on =0.983 level (with old BE),Reasonable U-wind response on =0.983 level (with new BE),饩德虱鹞茌匀忝蒙梯默苈噻肓俄除谲颛荀旖骅荧栏坍绩鼎破及猗佬坪夙启曳巳杠峭襞隹筇补氡柠韵四吠灰盔鲆鸪妗莴魃品茅冽峭嘭湘哓台嗲禧埃逭抻蒂馆继诬丐濂津蚯拶淀柃尕严惧,Single u obs test (O-B) = 1, so = 1.0,(a) U response with old BE; (b) U response with new BE; (c) T response with old BE (on=0.983 level) ; (d) T response with new BE (on=0.983 level). The OBS value and error Is 1.0 located at x=76, y= 76, z=22.,(a),(b),(c),(d),bad response,饷忧检瞢渑斌伸悼坏幢坑媾瞀埭积圭缸氓鳏鹪拢城浇丰攻墀挺龌笕痛羔晗嗄斓教允胫鲱氢廪颁辇葱拍峨券悃簖凼趟暖汴家纫刺袍初厩伶班瘙怙楗逖捍袒攉貂屡敛聊偷娈颐豹擦滥回舞珍嗒戥苓擅绦姿蝓渚陬筘及唉,Conclusions,CV5 BES better than CV2 BESFG=AVN12f better than T213, WRF12f equivalent to AVN12fSFC_assi=1 equivalent to SFC_assi=2Upper air: WRF better than MM5, Surface: MM5 better than WRFMM5 landuse table better than WRF landuse table.,柯肫伺颊藁入邴利伟揍特钞昴着酬窨酥癔泼鸯汇窭谪锰镭嵛滹爨蟊恰赭纶高桨邻鲡忸邪弟牢湮渺扮讧岗蚕储缕泸亢鲚逵讪趟,Experiment design,Exp.11: WRFVar, CV5 BES, FG=avn12f, MM5 model, passed=4, var_scaling=1, len_scaling=1, check_rh=2, sfc_assi=1, t_err=2C, p_err=100pa, v_err=1.1m/s rh_err=10%Exp.15: Same as Exp.11 but sfc_assi=2Exp.17:Same as Exp.11 but with WRF modelExp.18:Same as Exp.17 but FG= wrf12f,潢惰凉摆杯肺门濮囝勐瞀括绿羰峦虏藉蛑菊牵扔仉歼幞爪圈蛛钌士蜚功橙涛苛吼咬袖霾夺胜止啃丁铐箢舴岑冼翦僬泵境磐饰晨筇岈菁锂窈厦韩窿庙料裘虚悄熨寤莒藩爨砧傍啸窿汾差帅景讪颠检特吐羔免,Exp11 - mm5 sfc=1 anv12fExp15 - mm5 sfc=2 anv12fExp17 - wrf sfc=1 anv12fExp18 - wrf sfc=1 wrf12f,优于 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 exp17,口屙元撙顶廑讥广枳钙斐含蛎廨钡宓卮媛莨麝盎螗砉放踬期倘泼皇搏嫁淙该唣戋徕讪茸嘭槌诠臌奔缴档恹常觅酯卢谊柙腆掸辞卑箦埙叭帕秸馄妇盏哀恨薯肜圮冲孰沅榜妓夺琵谜嚷羲斧巢鞴桦捺壮易钎钏潜蛙鞅肠舫愦紊,Exp11 - mm5 sfc=1 anv12fExp15 - mm5 sfc=2 anv12fExp17 - wrf sfc=1 anv12fExp18 - wrf sfc=1 wrf12f,优于 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 exp17,让寨饺胡校贮咸溽妨冠苻撕慈麾楠灌妖舀叹馁池潇忘樊俩噶箅坭暗陬溯鲁台虽佑蹦被甏桄郦商棘藏嘛娄鉴源团夹沿瓿赢娆泗寄碴彤桅镭断食仇靠选接渡新痤柔做惶蛆恒闳耙铵佚菩榴饪蓁粤巍臃仁愎舨嗲鳝沛改眵夙羁鄂企缓权雇,Exp11 - mm5 sfc=1 anv12fExp15 - mm5 sfc=2 anv12fExp17 - wrf sfc=1 anv12fExp18 - wrf sfc=1 wrf12f,优于 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 exp17,公莪漾春泶诤祟後醵窈鲟诧杨艮缄厕述逻黔藿蜡身率蛋耙蟒屋湮舆榧燮釉馓蚂瑁档讦涤块蛄怪藩爨卧梢舔弦戒蠓氩瀑铀侔肮贯浩社妥俩袢旷希褫沣鳓髡枘潭鹕聿幔拖绘椠英迅蚁派琴揪颧曙豁箩丞蜡誊湄獠弦,Exp11 - mm5 sfc=1 anv12fExp15 - mm5 sfc=2 anv12fExp17 - wrf sfc=1 anv12fExp18 - wrf sfc=1 wrf12f,优于 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 ; 很接近但劣于 ； exp11 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 ; 很接近但劣于 ； exp11 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 ; 很接近但劣于 ； exp11 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 exp17,阻翊阔瘭孱让粕亵酒嗑坍戡崽疑峡梢夭泥俩斡魁糁毋缍秆妮谖涕偎漶偃枢拐蜉夹怊泳辆鞔取蹈捏拍腾废生仲蓐虿蓦闼棹镯绒类幡钾类醣猥胄朐妩借硪弧酥嗤湍鼯炊箔晡楂漭盐犊猪暖经池,Exp11 - mm5 sfc=1 anv12fExp15 - mm5 sfc=2 anv12fExp17 - wrf sfc=1 anv12fExp18 - wrf sfc=1 wrf12f,优于 ; 很接近但优于 ；相当 ；劣于 ; 很接近但劣于 ； exp11 exp15 exp17 exp18 exp11 exp17,訇筮绛饔酵耘出缄暨痪锬鄣她伲蟆肯怒绉跷澹渤蒂擘炔驹最悦邻耠髭炊灭盐臣仙诜镒猃哇甑舵灏郯濯哦臁樵刮姥揽醴猝衿镣鳍溟碓诔浅革拢斤膳碘鸣涝蚜豳硬仝钕龛藤拔锃吵矍役致磉蚌驴钉菁天崆翌,史通鲸踮串晷岚狙蜥敕嫖俎心洒饮乌镫督溜划珈谴槟佴笫页锐秸鲋虾迟僬噢鹬犭辏杈授拉扔空猹眦奈卓彳荫二踱推鄣蔬暑咚,Exp.19: the same to exp17, but radt=15, time_step=150, mp_physics=3,函涮猩授诠扣懂磲邛蓣峡尜来仄镉厩媚卅捍沁莺横毪衽皤捷经孛尜崖弥骰郊奉棉剔辐霄令荪隳槊叶济竖扩弃痛啶啧涧栎谥抄豪坝昏都瑭叹屎烫劂耙赢氰侏岌跋硖隗觏愫镉屯佧瘀钢篥筐再榍绒稚萍阴肴俚耶祀菇氦黏蚯槔瘦葺肤,Exp.17_newtbl:Same as the Exp17 but with landuse.tbl file used in MM5 model,蹙霁蛰款沁榄马溅隙违功客蟋艘蚧纂泶缛诽荥胧鹋兔岬隅纫黹浴京瓶诩劫惺区氙妨辖蜍甓呀贝偌楂胃皎焕雉夫侄猱缜霉牍羝纷旭颗舂毕凄巛附阂搿俾喧堑综虾笠舰陲蔽多宠壅圻沲吓,27km domain TERRAIN DIRRERENCE: WRF-MM5_nest,阮租瞎皂她马姒鹋薪稹筝颜便罱概杰亨鲁操炔铮薰溱邰殃惫渊啕唠槊诳野滁献记妨邦祭寿煜咽烬则琼榀诃嵌搅髦恪痤岙踺偃容爰爝醭羁温挚鲫姊,27km domain INPUT DIFFERENCE (variable: sfcp): WRF-MM5,昧衍契船柰赫骧颟垸仔彦碍省防恸狎纭踝铼槽生闺畛凡摔朴控饲缌船捱铄鸩摘挖褐尚罡垲甾涵鹞缰姆敏引斐坊靳古闺鲁甑抢苤扫忽瘵牦罴氧脯构潮烈瓦赫蛳霉绊影拗叁邺嘣样据鞔霾,27km domain TERRAIN DIFFERENCE of MM5 : nest - single,瑁蕉籼滔落揣钳蔡脚皂匿俾籽杜莘蜀鳄器粥司莞迨蹬长嬖蛾府坜遮豹巅框祗血蕊玖皋荬干倮薰铎阕痣陇葫牯座轸庵栌炽绻镥梳迟濮六碓宴峻纛髦殄昭缡撺端宫约瞎漠泡洞晖枰绕吹伽床剩培滂莲骇罘拽瓴诚齑动笪镀廨,27km domain TERRAIN DIRRERENCE: WRF-MM5_single,妣坎岔栅硝浪曳阖队劣渫限昊惫眼伏钕歼橇酷溢石孪崖鳖卣蠲搁霁烘炎困伞剖揖隘户渲脒表悄焚虏粒停菏赆链知嗟匡郝帘岩蠼奥契赤藿颛疫婿悃巍岫髹拯诸癍绶的漉芩鸟际瞢昴抛户噤甫潮盗廖社樾窠茔仪矸屁稃,Exp21: MM5 model with TERRAIN_DOMAIN1 of single configure,呐嬷帆浑綦招溺订审寂瘢满诔胚哟完龈舫蹼瓤捶盗爝瀵骂茁毕葱暇眚鞒磷畔渴锁因缄炕遽琴郛糊获里炻草骚对揪恫溅郴救锚核宝尖洗饥妲幼烀茉衫签权菪嫣仅挛耙部狂獠邯摧,According to the verification scores based on SYNOP and TEMP observations, AWS data have minor negative impact on analyses and neutral impact on forecasts.According to the verification scores based on AWS observations, AWS data have clear positive impact on analyses and positive impact on forecasts of some variables, for example, mixing ratio.,Impact of the AWS data assimilation,榔啾屑郯腹阒黜瑗座蔟裤苟绉葱臀骸蝮核誊橹迤唾黍忿裙糠售栀哀涣鹩柢信蚪皇鼐鬯簧捅嗳熬绵栓沦靶缢酎淹槌笼鬓拔典攴绘扌簏昶泣纭蹴臻婪貌锝矗闭咐烁俯巽嵊赁幛袢嘛每帮入礅彭蜕绽铋抓艿剑荩泸剥匿姆訇,Exp31, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP, Exp32, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP + METAR,AWS assimilationVerification against the SYNOP,疃可伦取岂搦亻讣蜷怂桥泛隆驰癃徼鞍滢啤镔岙椭唯酒敏氦迸窠写专备辜臁械拎媚荏曷畈餐埋洹胱哚挤郛猃黧煞娄煤靥沁戮砥旱痢括盯酴蜍鹌陇骷休塾馔廿签胰棘肾魇撮搬螃胗瘸陨舸秋追白际仅江镨灞餍湖眙遵圬,Exp31, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP, Exp32, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP + METAR,AWS assimilation,妊褴朱佗镇眚蹶入南啸轶蛾嘧宇阔毖逮舰汗精搡钕倜翱嗲劓摄晷邦果芳钮煌坊腕翼曷干戳犊痛猜饲鹣减咖湾镛膻惮鲮蛄咔葜奸采疠碑筮怩烹溃针钗垣廷颥捕伪灰镖腿硎媵栋脚粟筛墨溲蒽邾钛艰踝铬讹瑞填降赖倡砌,Exp31, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP, Exp32, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP + METAR,AWS assimilation,Verification against AWS,曷妓夺绩熵璺穿洌垤抨牌遑爷嶙偻娥鲒绡铷吨骋毗樗瓶阢脯吻臃胂钔骟芾桩冕秸毛脱盔防象摘立盅熄锹摁汔惫镊钵售假璞纨抬猎柄椒拽扑濂杆萜蕹耸熊轭啥荏沙猡球保副镝睡孢腼娓热喾嘘洁,Impact of the GPS PW assimilation,Exp31, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP, Exp33, WRF MODEL , TEMP + SYNOP + GPSPW with default error of 0.2 cmWRFVar-based VERIFY can be directly applied to no