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.,1,FinancialRatioAnalysis财务比率分析,.,2,LearningObjectives,Whatarefinancialratios?Whatcategories(种类)canfinancialratiosbegroupedinto?Howtocalculateeachfinancialratio?Whatsthemeaningofeachfinancialratio?Whataretheprosandconsofeachfinancialratio?,优缺点,.,3,Wisdom,Ifyoucannotmeasureit,youcannotimproveit.LordKelvin(1824-1907)无法衡量就无法改善。,.,4,CoreFinancialRatio,LiquidityRatios:LiquidityRatiosmeasurethecompanysabilitytomeetitsshort-termobligations.CurrentratioQuickratioCashratio,流动比率,速动比率,现金比率,.,5,DebtManagementRatios:DebtManagementRatiosmeasureacompanysabilitytomeetlong-termobligations.DebtratioDebttoequityratioEquitymultiplierLong-termdebtratioInterestcoverageratioCashflowcoverageratio,资产负债比率,产权比率,权益乘数,长期负债比率,利息保障倍数,现金流量保障比率,.,6,AssetManagementRatios:AssetManagementRatiosmeasureacompanysabilitytoManagetheassetsatitsdisposal.AccountsreceivableturnoverratioInventoryturnoverratioAccountspayableturnoverratioCashconversioncycleFixedassetturnoverratioTotalassetturnoverratio,现金流转周期,存货周转率,应付账款周转率,固定资产周转率,总资产周转率,应收账款周转率,.,7,Profitabilityratios:ProfitabilityratiosmeasurethecompanysabilitytogenerateprofitablesalesfromitsAssets.GrossprofitmarginOperatingprofitmarginNetprofitmarginReturnonassetsReturnontotalequityReturnoncommonequity,资产报酬率,营业利润率,毛利率,普通权益报酬率,全部权益报酬率,净利润率,.,8,Marketvalueratios:Marketvalueratiosusemarketdatasuchasstockpricetoprovideusefulinformationaboutthefirmsrelativevalue.Price/earningsratios(P/E)Market-to-bookvalueratioDividendyieldDividendpayout,市值与账面价值的比,市盈率,股利支付率,股利收益率,.,9,MiniCase,施乐公司(XeroxCorporation)创建于1906年,总部位于美国康涅狄格州斯坦福市,是一家历史悠久的以经营办公设备为主的跨国企业,也是世界上最大的现代化办公设备制造商及复印机的发明者。施乐公司于2001年和2002年两次重新编报以前年度的财务报告,大幅下调收入和利润。,.,10,主要会计操纵手段,1、提前确认租赁收入,2、任意提高出租设备余值,3、提前确认出租资产组合收益合约的收入,4、操纵各项准备金,5、未披露应收账款贴现业务,Rentalincomeisrecognizedinadvance,Improvetheresidualvalueofrentalequipment,Rentalincomeofthecontractincomeportfolioisrecognizedinadvance,Manipulationofthereserve,Undisclosedthediscountedaccountsreceivable,.,11,1、市场预期2、经理人报酬SEC指出,1997年至2000年间,施乐高级管理人士领取了500多万美元的业绩补贴,并通过出售所持股票获取了3000多万美元的利润。,利润操纵的动机分析,.,12,目的:上市、配股和避免成为ST公司或退市等。手段:以利润和费用的确认为主。ST黎明的1999年度会计报告资产虚增8996万元;负债虚增1956万元;所有者权益虚增7413万元;主营业务收入虚增15277万元;利润总额虚增8679万元。,我国上市公司财务报告现状的分析,.,13,ST冰熊2000年年报显示,由于费用挂账、会计处理不当等会计差错,该公司2000年期初未分配利润调减5545万元,表明该公司以前年度信息披露存在重大不实行为。郑百文上市前采取虚提返利、少计费用、费用跨期入账等手段,虚增利润1908万元,并据此制作了虚假上市申报材料;上市后三年中采取虚提返利、费用挂账、无依据冲减成本及费用、费用跨期入账等手段,累计虚增利润14390万元。,.,14,提高上市公司的会计信息质量一方面涉及到公司内部治理问题,另一方面涉及外部多方的监督和管理。在美国,这些外部力量包括独立审计师、证券分析人员、信用评级机构、各证券交易所和证券交易委员会(SEC)。由于我国资本市场建立时间较短,公司内部治理法规和外部监督力量都比较薄弱。所以,在提高我国会计信息质量的道路上,新会计制度的制定是一方面,同时还要加强公司内部治理和外部力量的监督和管理。,结论,.,15,WordsStudy,1.Financialratio财务比率financialratioanalysis财务比率分析2.restrictivecovenants限制性条款这项借款有很多限制性条款Therearemanyrestrictivecovenantsintheloan,3.boardindenture债券契约这项债券契约是合法的Thebondindentureisalegitimate,.,16,4.financialanalyst财务分析师5.last-in,first-out(LIFO)后进先出first-in,first-out(FIFO)先进先出6.windowdressing账面粉饰Windowdressingisanunfairwayofattractingcustomers.粉饰帐目不是吸引客户的公正方式。,.,17,Textstudy,4.1FinancialRatioAnalysis4.2LiquidityRatios4.3DebtManagementRatios4.4AssetManagementRatios4.5ProfitabilityRatios4.6MarketValueRatios4.7UsesandLimitationsofFinancialRatioAnalysis,.,18,FinancialRatioAnalysis,1.whatsfinancialratio?Afinancialratioisamathematicalrelationshipamongseveralnumbersoftenstatedintheformofpercentage,times,ordays.财务比率是几个数字之间的数学关系,它的单位是百分比、倍数(次数)和天数。Financialratiosareameansofevaluatingafirmsperformanceandhealththatuseastandardofcomparisonsofitemsonthefirmsfinancialstatementsratherthanadirectreadingoffinancialfigures.与财务数字不同,财务指标通过对财务报表中会计报表项目之间的标准化比较来评价企业的经营业绩和财务状况。Lenders,ratingagencies,otherinvestors,regulators,managers,Moodys穆迪公司创始人是约翰穆迪,他在1909年首创对铁路债券进行信用评级。它的股票在纽约证券交易所上市交易(代码MCO)。在全球占有40%的份额。,STANDARD&POORS标准普尔由亨利瓦纳姆普尔(MrHenryVarnumPoor)于1860年创立。标准普尔为投资者提供信用评级、独立分析研究、投资咨询等服务,其中包括反映全球股市表现的标准普尔全球1200指数和为美国投资组合指数的基准的标准普尔500指数等一系列指数。,FitchRatings惠誉国际1913年由约翰惠誉(JohnK.Fitch)创办。,.,20,2.AnalyzingFinancialRatios:Financialratiosarenotstandardized.Analyzingasinglefinancialratioforagivenyearmaynotbeveryuseful.Inisolation(孤立地),afinancialratioisauselesspieceofinformation.单独的一个财务指标能告诉我们的信息很少。Someofafirmsfinancialaccountingpracticesorchoiceswillaffectitsfinancialstatementsand,finally,itsfinancialratios.Financialratiosdonotprovideanalystswithalloftheanswersaboutafirmscondition.,FinancialRatioAnalysis,.,21,InterpretativeExamples,Supposeagrossprofitmarginforacompanyis25%,accordingtothegiveninformation,canyoutellitishigh,orlowforthecompany?假设一个公司的毛利率为25,你能判断该公司毛利率的高低吗?,.,22,InterpretativeExamples,Ifgiventhatthiscompanyscompetitorshaveprofitmarginsof10%,whatcanyoudrawfromthecomparison?如果我们知道该公司的竞争对手毛利率平均为10,那通过比较我们能获得什么结论?,Ifgiventhatthehistoricaltrendofthiscompanysgrossprofitmarginisupwards,whatconclusioncanyoumake?如果该公司的毛利率在过去的几年里保持增长趋势,我们又能得出什么结论呢?,.,23,Itsimperativetonotetheimportanceofthepropercontextforratioanalysis在财务报表分析中,恰当的比较背景非常重要。,Thatis,usinghistoricaldataindependentiffundamentalchangesinacompanyssituationorprospectswouldpredictverylittleaboutitsfuturetrends.如果公司现在或将来会发生根本性的变化,那么该公司的历史信息就不能很好的预测公司未来的发展趋势。,InterpretativeExamples,.,24,LiquidityRatios,Liquidityratiosareconnectedwithshort-termassetsandliabilities,whichmeasureafirmsabilitytomeetshort-termobligations.变现能力指标是有关短期资产和短期负债的指标,它衡量企业的短期偿债能力。E.g.Currentratio、Quickratio、Cashratio,.,25,LiquidityRatios-CurrentRatio,Thethreedisadvantage:Afirmsaccountingmethods,particularlyinventoryvaluation,mayaffectitscurrentratio.Inaninflationaryenvironment,firmsthatuselast-in,first-out(LIFO)inventoryvaluationwilllikelyhavelowercurrentratiosthanfirmsthatusefirst-in,first-out(FIFO).,.,26,Equalabsolutechangesinthenumeratoranddenominatormayleadtoapparentimprovementsordeteriorationinratiosthatdonotreflectrealchangesinperformance.分子和分母发生完全相等的变化,可能使流动比率发生明显的改善或恶化,但是这种变化却不能反映业绩真正的变化。,LiquidityRatios-CurrentRatio,.,27,Currentratiosmayhideimportantliquiditydifferencesamongfirms.E.g.A:currentassets4000(cash1000,inventory3000)currentliabilities:2000B:currentassets4000(cash4000)currentliabilities:2000,LiquidityRatios-CurrentRatio,.,28,LiquidityRatios-QuickRatio,Sometimesreferredtoastheacidtestratio.Thequickratioissimilartothecurrentratioexceptinventoryisexcludedfromthecurrentassetsinthenumerator.,.,29,Generally,anacid-testratioof1:1isgoodformanufacturesandindicatethefirmdoesnothavetosellinventoriestopaythedebtsthatcomedue.,LiquidityRatios-QuickRatio,.,30,LiquidityRatios-CashRatio,Thecashratioismoreconservativeliquiditymeasurethanthecurrentorquickratio.Thecashratioonlyincludescashandmarketablesecuritiesinthenumerator.,.,31,Analyzingacashratio,however,couldbehelpfulforassessingafirmsliquiditywhenthefirmneedstopaymostorallofitscurrentliabilitieswithcashinthenearterm.Aswiththeotherliquidityratio,ahighercashratioindicatesastrongerliquiditycondition.,LiquidityRatios-CashRatio,.,32,DebtManagementRatiosshowtheextenttowhichthefirmisfinancedbylong-termdebts,whichprovideanindicationofthelong-termsolvencyofthefirm.财务杠杆表明企业的负债程度,是衡量企业长期偿债能力的指标。E.g.Debtratio、Debtoequityratio、Equitymultiplier、Long-termDebtRatio、InterestCoverageRatio、CashFlowCoverageRatio,DebtManagementRatios,.,33,DebtManagementRatios-DebtRatio,Creditorspreferalowormoderatedebtratiobecauseitprovidesmoreprotectionifthefirmexperiencesfinancialproblems.Stockholders,ontheotherhand,maywantmoreleveragebecauseitmagnifiesexpectedearnings.,.,34,DebtManagementRatios-DebToEquityRatio,.,35,DebtManagementRatios-EquityMultiplier,Equitymultiplier=Debtoequityratio/Debtratio,.,36,DebtManagementRatios-LongTermDebtRatio,Whencomputingthedebtratioandthelong-termdebtratio,somemanagersandanalystsusetotalcapitalinthedenominatorinplaceoftotalassets.,.,37,DebtManagementRatios-InterestCoverageRatio,Alsocalledtimesinterestearned.Theratiomeasurestheextenttowhichoperatingincomecandeclinebeforethefirmisunabletomeetitsannualinterestcosts.,.,38,DebtManagementRatios-CashFlowCoverageRatio,DepreciationisaddedbacktoEBITtoestimatecashflowbecausedepreciationisanon-cashexpensesubtractedfromrevenuestocalculateEBITontheincomestatement.,.,39,AssetManagementRatiosmeasurehowEffectivelythefirmisusingitsassets.资产运营指标衡量企业运用资产的效率。E.g.AccountsReceivableTurnoverRatio、InventoryTurnoverRatio、AccountsPayableTurnoverRatio、AssetTurnoverRatios,AssetManagementRatios,.,40,AssetManagementRatios-AccountsReceivableTurnoverRatio,Whenthefinancialstatementsdonotseparatecashandcreditsales,totalnetsalesareoftenusedinthenumerator.Technically,thenumeratorshouldonlyincludecreditsalesbecausetheaccountsreceivableinthedenominatorariseonlyfromcreditsales.,.,41,AssetManagementRatios-InventoryTurnoverRatio,Ahighratio,relativetosomebenchmark,suggestsefficientmanagementofthefirmsinventory.Alow,decliningratiomaysuggestthefirmhascontinuedtobuildupinventoryinthefaceofweakeningdemandormaybecarryingandreportingoutdatedorobsoleteinventorythatcouldonlybesoldatreducedprices.,.,42,AssetManagementRatios-AccountsPayableTurnoverRatio,Thecashconversioncycleisthelengthoftimeacompanyscashistiedupinthebusiness.,.,44,AssetManagementRatiosAssetTurnoverRatios,Afirmwitholdplantandequipmentwillhavehigherassetturnoverratioastheequipmentisdepreciatedandreportedonthebalancesheetatalowbookvalue.,.,45,ProfitabilityRatios,Profitabilityratiosrelateprofitstoinvestmentorsalestomeasureafirmsperformance.盈利能力指标通过将企业的盈利与销售额或投资额相比较,来衡量企业的经营业绩。E.g.GrossProfitMargin、OperatingProfit、MarginNetProfit、MarginReturnonAssets、TotalReturnonAssets、ReturnonTotalEquity、ReturnonCommonEquity、DuPontAnalysisofROE,.,46,ProfitabilityRatios-GrossProfitMargin,Sincethecostofsalesistheonlyitemsubtractedfromnetsalestocomputegrossprofit,thegrossprofitmarginindicatestherelationshipbetweensalesandmanufacturingorproductioncosts.,.,47,ProfitabilityRatios-OperatingProfitMargin,Theoperatingprofitmargin,whichindicatestheoperatingprofitgeneratedperdollarofnetsales,measuresthefirmsoperatingprofitabilitybeforefinancingcosts.,.,48,ProfitabilityRatios-NetProfitMargin,.,49,ProfitabilityRatios-ReturnonAssets,ROAratiosarealsoaffectedbytheageofafirmsplantandequipment.,.,50,ProfitabilityRatios-TotalReturnonAssets,Sincetotalassetsarefinancedbybothdebtandequityandprovidereturnstobothgroupsofinvestors,someanalystscomputetotalreturnonassetsbyaddingafirmsinterestexpensetothenumerator.Withoutthisadjustment,firmswithhighrelativeamountsofdebtfinancingwillhavelowerreturnsonassets.,.,51,ProfitabilityRatios-ReturnonTotalEquity,ROEindicateshowwellmanagementhasusedshareholderresourcestogeneratenetincome.,.,52,ProfitabilityRatios-ReturnonCommonEquity,Justfocusesonthereturntocommonshareholders.Theequityamountinthedenominatorrepresentstheequitycapitalthathasbeeninvestedinthefirm,includingreinvestmentofretainedearnings,butdoesnotrepresentthecurrentmarketvalueofthefirmse
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