光伏发电与聚光型太阳能 53p

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power,Dr. Martin Stickel,ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and ConferenceIsanbul, 14th May 2010,Agenda,Fichtner GmbH & Co. KGPhotovoltaics and Concentrated Solar PowerFinancial Results depending on Plant LocationSummary,The Fichtner Group,Established in 1922 still a family-owned concernGermanys biggest independent engineering and consultancy enterpriseMore than 1700 employees worldwide 450 in our Home OfficeProject experience in 150 countriesOver 1200 ongoing projects around 650 in our Home OfficeActive on behalf of: enterprises in the central services and utilities sector energy-intensive industries international development and commercial banks government and communal institutions and authoritiesTotal turnover of 179 million in 2008 67% international turnover,3,FICHTNER Independent Engineering and Consulting,Germanys biggest independent engineering and consultancy company,Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then,Staff strength:Home office (Stuttgart)ca. 450Totalca. 1,700,Turn-over 2008: Home office: 122 million EUR Total: 179 million EUR,On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR.,FICHTNER is represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.,FICHTNER Turkey,FICHTNER has been working for more than 40 years on various projects in TurkeyEstablished in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is100% owned by FICHTNER GermanyCompleted numerous projects mainly in the private sectorBrought together experienced international experts & local engineers/consultants and worked on the most important projects of TurkeyVision of FICHTNER Turkey:Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the regionProvide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the growing energy marketMake use of Turkeys young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make them compatible with international expertsUse them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide,Renewable Energy Technologies,HydropowerWind PowerSolarthermal PowerPhotovoltaicGeothermal PowerSolid BiomassSewage and Landfill GasBiogasBiomass to Liquid (BtL) Fuel Cells,Project phaseOur serviceObjectiveConcept studyDevelopment and review ofDefinition of approach realization concepts Feasibility studyInvestigation of technical andFinancing agreement/depiction of financial viabilityfinancial performanceConceptual and Drawing up permit Construction and operation layout engineering application documentspermitsDetail engineeringDrawing up tender documents Project- and client-specific tender documentsTendering and Bid evaluation and Plant procurement to meet quality, contract award contract negotiationstime and cost requirementsConstruction and installationSite supervisionFunctional plantCommissioning / test operation Supervision of commissioning Production-ready plantand testsOperationCheck of routine operation Regular commercial utilization,Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services,Agenda,Fichtner GmbH & Co. KGPhotovoltaics and Concentrated Solar PowerFinancial Results depending on Plant LocationSummary,Solar Irradiation in Turkey,Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the largest solar energy markets.,Worldwide Installed PV Supply,PV Grid Parity“ in Germany,Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft,Solar Technologies,Photovoltaics,Source: Juwi AG,Photovoltaic Power - Module Types,Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research)Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency.Thin film: Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient. Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium Diselluride (CIS),Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs. efficiency etc.,Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking,Concentrated Solar Power (CSP),General Technology PrincipleConcentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required) Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heatConversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy Conventional power generation technologyCharacteristicsHigh energy densityConventional components used (hybridisation possible) Economy of scale leads to large scale plantsPossibility of thermal energy storageTypes of Solar Thermal Power PlantsParabolic TroughFresnel TroughSolar Tower (Central Receiver)Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling)Solar Chimney,Parabolic Trough,Source: Fichtner,Thermal storage transfers excess solar heat into evening hours.,Extension of full load operation to night time hoursReduction of part load operation (cloud transients)Dispatchable power generationState-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten salt storage (E.g. AndaSol 1-3: 1050 MWh 7.5 h),CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine,Trends & Expectations,Capital Costs PV plants:2.5-4 /Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking systemDecreasing module costs (future 1/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC pricesCapital Costs CSP plants:4-6 /Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW) Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing electricity generation costs expectedPeak load or “base load”PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiationCSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability of plant availabilityProject CapacitiesPV: 1kW 50MWCSP:Parabolic trough 10MW 300MWFresnel 30MW (first commercial plant),Agenda,Fichtner GmbH & Co. KGPhotovoltaics and Concentrated Solar PowerFinancial Results depending on Plant LocationSummary,Feasibility of Solar Projects,Fichtner Cost Database,Plant Concept & Simulation of Electricity Generation,Plant CAPEX Plant OPEX,Revenues for Electricity Sales,Feed-in Tariff,Modelling of Project Economics,Net present valueInternal rate of returnLevelized electricity costs,PV Performance Projection - Example,PV Performance Projection - Example,Site Assessment,Source: Google Maps,Site Assessment,Example: Johannesburg, South Africa,Sensitivity of O&M Costs,Sensitivity of Land Costs,Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature,Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation,Agenda,Fichtner GmbH & Co. KGPhotovoltaics and Concentrated Solar PowerFinancial Results depending on Plant LocationSummary,Global Annual Solar Cell Production,Source: Photon,PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity,Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009,Summary,No general better“ technology but project specific technology selectionSize, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid conditionFeed-in tariffsRelevance of dispatchability / storageDesign optimization required for each project Thorough project development and due diligence processReliable design“Bankable” EPC and O&M Contracts performance and plant acceptance criteria and proceduresliquidated damages and incentive schemesReliable Yield ForecastsEnormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide,Contact,Whom to contact?,FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGBykdere Cad. 87/534387 MecidiyekyIstanbulTurkeyPhone 212- 2171767 Fax 212-2178124Mobile-Mail Rabia.R.tr,FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGSarweystrae 370191 StuttgartGermanyDr. Martin StickelManager PV / Solar TechnologiesPhone+49 (0)711 8995-684Fax+49 (0)711 8995-495Mobile+49 (0) 172 6358294E-Mailmartin.stickelfichtner.dewww.fichtner.de,Typical Project Constellation,Investor,Solar ProjectSpecial Purpose Vehicle (SPV),Lender,Insurance company,Utility,EPC contractor(s),Service Company,Equity,EPC Contract,O&M Contract,Policies,Loans,Power purchase agreement,Developer,Management,ProjectRights,OperationContract,Objectives:Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availabilityProper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirementsLow cost, high return on investment,Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence,Project structure and obligations of project partiesSolar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptionsTechnical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil worksEnergy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST)Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions)Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operationAdequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance test, availability, technical characteristics)Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA conceptPermits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.)Project insurancesTime schedule / Project management / risk managementFinancial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to banks / financial advisors modelAnalysis of project sensitivities / risk assessment,Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence,Engineering and contract award,Construction,Operation,Conceptual study and decision-making phase,Facilitate investment / financing decisions,Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence,Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications)Compliance with project scheduleReview of EPC contractors / owners progress reportSite and workshop inspectionsPreparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports,Phase II: Construction Monitoring,Certification of completionReview of commissioning and of trial operationAttendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requestsPV plant installation and mounting inspections,Phase III: Testing and completion certificate,Carry out annual site visitsPreparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports includingoperating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield)maintenance and extraordinary events,Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities,Engineering and contract award,Construction,Operation,Conceptual study and decision-making phase,Facilitate investment / financing decisions,PV World Market 2008,Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft,Integrated Expertise,Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing,Broad-based range of services from one source,Power Supply,Energy Technology,Environmental Technology,Water and Infrastructure,IT, Economics and Finances,Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC),Solar Thermal Power Plants Fresnel,Principle / CharacteristicsLine-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorberLower optical efficiency compared to parabolic troughMore simple design offers potentially lower investment costDirect steam generation in absorber (25 100 bar / 270 550C)Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated)Efficient use of land due to compact designStatusRelatively new technologySeveral pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation(5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in CaliforniaFirst large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in Californiausing Ausras Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology.New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large investment by Swiss utility,Solar Thermal Power Plants Solar Tower,Principle / CharacteristicsTracked field of mirrors (heliostats“), point focussing (factor 500)Concentration on small area on top of the tower (receiver“)High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700C)High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam)generation of steam by heat exchangerconventional water-steam-cycleStatusPotential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plantsSolar Tower technologies at different development stagesFirst two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20)Several large plants (100 MWe) under development in US Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed,PV related services,technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investorstechno-economic feasibility and conceptual studiesyield projectionsspecifications for large-scale PV installationscheck of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M - under their technical and commercial aspectssupervision of construction and progress monitoringparticipation in acceptance testsverification of electricity yields during operationother PV related technical advisory,Methodology,Methodology Financial Calculation,Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in /kWh,ItInvestment expenditures in the year t in MtOperations and maintenance expenditures in the year t in EtElectricity generation in the year t in kWhiDiscount rate nLife time of the system in years,Site Assessment,Nassau, Bahamas,Sensitivity of Wind Speed,Extract of Reference Projects Solar Thermal,Abu Dhabi:Design and Engineering 100 MWe CST Plant,India, Mathania 140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe),JordanProject Development for 50 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant,Greece, Theseus AE Project Company 50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant,BMU / KfW, ZIP Program Ten research projects for Market Introduction of Solar Technology,AustraliaSite Sele