行业报告-中国风电行业发展形势和展望【课件ppt】

中国风电发展形势和展望China Wind Power Development Status and Outlook,秦海岩 Qin Haiyan中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会Chinese Wind Energy Association2010.02.03,2009年中国风电发展回顾2009 China Wind Power Industry Review,新增装机预计超过1000万千瓦Est. New Installed Capacity Surpass 10GW,累计装机预计超过2200万千瓦 Est. ACCMU. Installed Capacity Surpass 22GW,各省风电开发创佳绩 Provinces made great achievements,2009年，内蒙古自治区风电装机并网容量突破500万千瓦Inner Mongolia integrated capacity reached 5GW in 2009,累计风电装机容量超过200万千瓦的省份：provinces whose accumulated capacity exceed 2GW：内蒙、河北、辽宁Inner Mongolia; Hebei; Liaoning累计风电装机容量超过100万千瓦的省份：provinces whose accumulated capacity exceed 1GW吉林、甘肃、黑龙江、山东、江苏 Jilin; Gansu; Heilongjiang; Shandong; Jiangsu,各省风电开发上规模 wind power development of provinces are on large scales,风电开发商获佳绩 Developers made great achievements,2009年，龙源电力累计风电装机容量达450万千瓦；同年，龙源电力赴香港成功上市Longyuan Electric Group Corporations installed capacity reached 4.5GW in 2009, and was listed on the stock market of Hong Kong,风电开发商获佳绩Developers made great achievements,2009年，大唐集团公司累计风电装机突破300万千瓦Datang Corporations accumulated capacity reached 3GW in 2009.,风电开发商获佳绩Developers made great achievements,2009年，in 2009, (Accumulated Capacity) 龙源累计风电装机超过450万千瓦 Longyuan Electric Group Corporation : beyond 4.5GW 大唐累计风电装机超过300万千瓦 Datang Corporation: beyond 3GW华能累计风电装机超过100万千瓦 HuaNeng Group: beyond 1GW:国华、华电、中广核、京能集团均达到或超过100万千瓦Guohua Electric Power; Huadian;CGN : beyond or reach 1GW,并网容量大幅提高On-grid capacity increased greatly,新增风电并网容量897万千瓦newly increased on-grid wind power : 8.97GW累计并网容量达到1613万千瓦，同年比增长92.26%Accumulated on-grid capacity reach 16.13GW up 92.26% over the same period of last year风电发电量269亿千万时，同年比增长105.85%, up 105.85% over the same period of last year generating capacity reach 26.9 billion kWh,新增装机容量排名前10机组制造商New Installed Market Share of Top 10 Manufacturer,供应链整体得提高Supply chain improved,中航惠腾、中复连众、中材科技三家企业兆瓦级叶片产量之和超过4200套；HT Blades, Zhongfu Blades and Sinomatch Blades, this three manufactures total MW class blades output reached 4200 units.中航惠腾、中复连众、中材科技均已具备3MW叶片生产能力HT Blades, Zhongfu Blades and Sinomatch Blades have the ability to produce 3MW class blades,供应链整体得提高Supply chain are improved integrally,偏航、变桨轴承供应能力充足 Sufficient supply ability of pitch and yaw bearing瓦轴、洛轴、天马等企业开始小批量生产主轴轴承、齿轮箱轴承 ZWZ Bearing, LYC Bearing,Tianma Bearing begine to produce main bearing and gearbox bearing in small amount. 齿轮箱产品走向国际市场 Gearbox are entering into international market金风、华锐、东汽等机组制造商开始具备制造控制系统能力Goldwind, Sinovel and DEC are constructing their Manufacturing capability control system.,设备研制再创佳绩 R&D of Equipment made a great achievement,2009.3.20，华锐首台3MW海上风电机组完成吊装.On 20th March 2009, the first Sinovels 3MW offshore wind turbine was installed,设备研制再创佳绩R&D of Equipment made a great achievement,设备研制再创佳绩R&D of Equipment made a great achievement,2009.10.25，沈阳工大首台3MW风电机组下线 On 10th October 2009,SUTs first 3MW wind turbine was assembled,产品出口稳步发展 Export on Stable growth,产品出口稳步发展Export on Stable growth,2009.2.26，新誉1.5MW机组出口泰国发运仪式 Ceremony of CPC New Unites 1.5MW Turbine export to Thailand2.26, 2009,产品出口稳步发展Export on Stable growth,2009.8.5，新誉1.5MW机组出口美国发运仪式Ceremony of CPC New Unites 1.5MW Turbine export to USA 8.5, 2009,产品出口稳步发展Export on Stable growth,2009年中复连众叶片出口英国、日本起运 2009, Zhongfu Blades Export to UK and Japan,产品出口稳步发展Export on Stable growth,2009年中材叶片出口东南亚国家 2009, Sinomatch Blades export to Southeast Asian countries,产品出口稳步发展Export on Stable growth,南高齿2009年出口美国GE1.5MW齿轮箱约400台, 出口日本2MW齿轮箱约50台 NGC export 1.5MW 400 gearboxes to GE in 2009, and export app. 50 sets to Japan,电网瓶颈依然存在Grid Bottleneck Still Exist,大规模、远距离输送的问题需要解决；Large scale long distance transmission problems need to be solved,未来发展形势展望Outlook,中国承诺40-50%减排目标40-50% Emission Goal Commitment,“1990至2005年，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放强度下降46%。在此基础上，我们又提出，到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%45%”- 温家宝,资源电价推动风电进一步发展Resource Classified Tariff Introduced,2009年8月1日风资源分区上网标杆电价New Tariff was introduced on 2009.08.01,20年经营期固定电价 20 years 高于特许权招标和项目核准电价 Higher than concession bidding and approved price投资者自行判断投资收益Investor self-estimate profit,资源电价推动风电进一步发展Resource Classified Tariff Introduced,可再生能源法修改 Renewable Energy Law Amended,2009年12月26日对可再生能源法修改的主要内容。编制可再生能源开发利用规划，应当遵循因地制宜、统筹兼顾、合理布局、有序发展的原则，对风能、太阳能、水能、生物质能、地热能、海洋能等可再生能源的开发利用作出统筹安排。 国家实行可再生能源发电全额保障性收购制度。政府按照全国可再生能源开发利用规划，确定在规划期内应当达到的可再生能源发电量占全部发电量的比重，制定电网企业优先调度和全额收购可再生能源发电的具体办法,可再生能源法修改Renewable Energy Law Amended,电网企业与按照规划建设，依法取得行政许可的发电企业签订并网协议，全额收购符合并网技术标准的可再生能源并网发电项目的上网电量。发电企业有义务配合电网企业保障电网安全。接网费用以及其他相关费用，电网企业不能通过销售电价回收的，可以申请可再生能源发展基金补助。修改的条文，规定电网企业全额保障性收购可再生能源发电上网电量，同时规定了电网企业为此增加的成本可以从发展基金得到补助。制定实施细则才可操作，起到激励作用。,70%设备本土化率取消70% Equipment Local-Made Requirement canceled,2009年11月25日，国家发改委关于取消风电工程项目采购设备国产化率要求的通知（发改能源【2009】2991号）发布。取消了建设风电场对购买风电设备必须满足70%以上国产化率的要求。70% Local-made requirement canceled by NDRC in 2009更多的国际竞争与合作More International competition and cooperation can be seen,税收政策 Tax Credit,2009年，财政部 国家发展改革委 工业和信息化部 、海关总署、 国家税务总局、 国家能源局联合发布了关于调整重大技术装备进口税收政策的通知 （财关税200955号）,国家支持发展大功率风力发电机（组）及其配套部件风力发电机（组）整机 WTGS:单机额定功率为1.2MW级、2MW级及以上，年销售量50台以上；Rated 1.2MW, 2MW and above, Sales more than 50 per year配套部件：叶片、齿轮箱、发电机、控制系统、变流器Components: Blade, Gearbox, Generator, Control System, Converter单机额定功率1.2MW的整机配套 Rated 1.2 MW叶片年销售量150片，发电机年销售量50台Blade Sales more than 150 per year, Generator Sales more than 50 per year,千万千瓦风电基地规划Locations of 10GW size wind power base,千万千瓦风电基地规划10GW size wind power base planning,六个省区的七个千万千瓦级风电基地规划到2020年Up to 2020,10GW size wind power base planning in 6 provinces总装机容量达到12630万千瓦126.3GW wind power capacity风电上网电量约2810亿千瓦时281 billion kWh wind power on-grid energy,千万千瓦风电基地规划,在中国北部区域，风能资源非常丰富，土地辽阔，但是电力负荷小，电网薄弱，Rich in wind resources and wide in land, while low in electrical load, weak in grid in North China.不能按照欧洲“分散上网，就地销纳”的模式发展，只能是“大规模-高集中-高电压-远距离输送”的模式，对电网企业是很大的挑战Its a big challenge for grid company to develop according to “large scale、high concentration、high voltage、long distance” model while not with EU model,海上风电的范围Scope of offshore wind power潮间带和潮下带滩涂风电场：多年平均大潮高潮线以下至理论最低潮位以下5m水深内的海域。Tideland wind farm：means the wind farms located between the elevation of spring tide level and 5m below lowest tide surface. Those areas are not assarted and need special engineering treatment. 2. 近海风电场：理论最低潮位以下5m 50m水深内的海域，含无人岛屿及海礁。Offshore wind farm：means the wind farms have the foundation directly located on the seabed and need ship for wind turbine installation. The seabed will be around 5m to 50m below lowest tide surface. The non-resident island wind farms are included. 3. 深海风电场：理论最低潮位以下50m水深的海域，含无人岛屿及海礁。Deep sea wind farm： means the wind farms have the foundation floated on the water and need ship for wind turbine installation. The seabed will be at least 50m below lowest tide surface. The non-resident island wind farms are included.,海上风电场规划Preparation of offshore wind farm planning,电网的积极配合Support From Grid,社会责任报告承诺年加大科技攻关，推动清洁能源上网发电；State Grid committed in its CSR report about its promoting of clean energy grid connection年将加大科技经费投入，达亿元，建成国家风电技术与检测研究中心、太阳能发电研发实验中心，并推进国家风光储能输送工程建设，以突破制约可再生能源发展的技术瓶颈；State Grid will invest 14.9 bn to establish state wind power tech R&D and testing center, solar generation R&D center and promote state solar-wind hybrid storage and transmission to make breakthrough on renewable energy development 特高压建设拉开序幕，输电能力不断提高；UVH transmission line put into construction which guaranteeing trans capacity improving in future智能电网建设规划 Smart Grid plan,特高压建设拉开序幕，输电能力将不断提高UVH Start to construction, Transmission Capacity Improving,已经投运的特高压工程 UVH Project into operation2009年1月26日，晋东南-南阳-荆门1000kV特高压交流试验示范工程正式投运2009.01.26, Southeast Shanxi-Nanyang-Jinmen 1000kW UVH AC demonstration project 已经或即将开工的特高压工程：Constructed or Underconstruct UVH project向家坝-上海800kV直流特高压输电示范工程 Xiangjiba-Shanghain 800kV DC UVH transmission project淮南-上海（淮南皖南浙北上海(沪西)）1000kV交流特高压输变电工程Huainan-Shanghai(Huainan-Wannan-North Zhejiang-Shanghai 1000kV AC UVH transmssion锡盟-上海1000kV交流特高压输变电工程Xilinhaote-Shanghai 1000kV AV UVH transmission陕北-长沙（陕北晋东南南阳荆门长沙）1000kV交流特高压输变电工程North Shaanxi-Changsha(North Shaanxi-Southeast Shanxi-Jinmen-Changsha) 1000kV UVH transmission project,已经或即将开工的特高压工程Constructed or underconstructed UVH transmission projects,智能电网规划Smart Grid Plan,2009年至2010年规划试点阶段 From 2009 to 2010 Plan2015年至2020年引领提升阶段 From 2015 to 2020 Leading and Improving Phase全面建成统一的“坚强智能电网”，技术和装备全面达到国际先进水平。To establish consolidated Strong Smart Grid, improve technology and equipment to a international advanced level,强制性市场份额的数量目标Mandatory Penetration Amount Goals,2007年中国政府公布的可再生能源发展规划首次明确了强制性市场份额的数量目标。 In 2007, RES Mandatory Penetration Amount Goals was first announ