宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析（英文版）

Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-1,CHAPTER8,Money,Prices,andInflation,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-2,Questions,Whatdoeconomistsmeanby“money”?Whyismoneyuseful?Whatdoeconomistsmeanwhentheysaythatmoneyisaunitofaccount?Whatdeterminesthepricelevelandtheinflationrate?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-3,Questions,Whywouldagovernmentevergenerate“hyperinflation”?Whatdeterminesthelevelofmoneydemand?Whatdeterminesthelevelofthemoneysupply?Whyisinflationseenassomethingtobeavoided?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-4,Inflation,Inthe1970s,theUnitedStatesexperiencedanepisodeofrelativelymildinflationpricesrosebetweenfiveandtenpercentperyearcausedsignificanteconomicandpoliticaltraumaavoidingarepeatoftheinflationofthe1970sremainsamajorgoalofeconomicpolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-5,Figure8.1-Post-WorldWarIIInflationintheUnitedStates,1951-2000,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-6,TheFlexible-PriceModel,TheClassicaldichotomyimpliesthatrealvariables(realGDP,realinvestmentspending,ortherealexchangerate)canbeanalyzedandcalculatedwithoutconsideringnominalvariables(pricelevel)moneyis“neutral”Thisisaspecialfeatureofthefull-employmentflexible-pricemodel,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-7,Money,iswealththatisheldinareadily-spendableformismadeupofcoinandcurrencycheckingaccountbalancesotherassetsthatcanbeturnedintocashordemanddepositsnearlyinstantaneously,withoutriskorcost,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-8,TheUsefulnessofMoney,Withoutmoney,markettransactionswouldhavetobeperformedthroughbarterInabartereconomy,marketexchangewouldrequirethecoincidenceofwantsyouwouldhavetohavesomegoodorservicethatsomeonewantsandheorshewouldhavetohavesomegoodorservicethatyouwant,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-9,Figure8.2-CoincidenceofWants,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-10,TheUsefulnessofMoney,MoneyalsoservesasaunitofaccountmoneyisusedasayardsticktomeasurevalueorquotepricesAnythingthatalterstherealvalueofmoneyintermsofitspurchasingpowerwillalsoaltertherealtermsofexistingcontractsthatusethemoneyasaunitofaccount,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-11,TheDemandforMoney,Businessesandhouseholdshaveademandformoneytheywanttoholdacertainamountofwealthintheformofreadily-spendablepurchasingpowertocarryouttransactionsahigherlevelofspendingmeansalargermoneydemandThereisacostofholdingmoneycashandcheckingdepositsearnlittleornointerest,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-12,Figure8.3-ReasonsforandOpportunityCostofHoldingMoney,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-13,TheQuantityTheoryofMoney,assumesthattheonlyimportantdeterminantofthedemandformoneyistheflowofspendingcanbesummarizedusingtheCambridgemoney-demandfunction,thequantityequation,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-14,TheQuantityTheoryofMoney,(PY)representsthetotalnominalflowofspendingMisthequantityofmoneyVisameasureofhowfastmoneymovesthroughtheeconomyhowmanytimestheaverageunitofmoneyisusedtobuyafinalgoodorservice,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-15,Figure8.4-TheVelocityofMoney,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-16,DeterminingthePriceLevel,Intheflexible-pricemodelofthemacroeconomyrealGDP(Y)isequaltopotentialGDP(Y*)thevelocityofmoneyisdeterminedbythesophisticationofthebankingsystemthemoneysupplyisdeterminedbythecentralbank,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-17,DeterminingthePriceLevel,Ifthepricelevelishigherthanthequantityequationpredictshouseholdsandbusinesseswillhavelesswealthintheformofmoneythantheywishtheywillcutbackonpurchasessellerswillnotedemandisweakandlowerprices,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-18,DeterminingthePriceLevel,Ifthepricelevelislowerthanthequantityequationpredictshouseholdsandbusinesseswillhavemorewealthintheformofmoneythantheywishtheywillincreasepurchasessellerswillnotedemandisstrongandraiseprices,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-19,DeterminingthePriceLevel,Example(thirdquarterof1998)realGDP=$7,566billionmoneystock=$1,072billionvelocity=7.964,Inthethirdquarterof1998,thepricelevelwasequalto112.84%ofits1992level,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-20,TheMoneyStock,TheFederalReservedeterminesthemoneystockintheU.S.thedeterminationofthemoneystockisthebasictaskofmonetarypolicyTheFederalReservecandirectlyimpactthemonetarybasethesumofcurrencyincirculationanddepositsattheFederalReservestwelvebranches,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-21,TheMoneyStock,Toreducethemonetarybase,theFederalReservesellsshort-termgovernmentsecuritiesToincreasethemonetarybase,theFederalReservebuysshort-termgovernmentsecuritiesThesetransactionsarecalledopenmarketoperations,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-22,Figure8.5-OpenMarketOperations,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-23,TheMoneyStock,TheFederalReservedirectlycontrolsthemonetarybaseTheothermeasuresofthemoneystockaredeterminedbytheinteractionofthemonetarybasewiththebankingsectorregulatoryrequirementstheincentiveoffinancialinstitutionstohaveenoughfundsonhandtosatisfydepositorsdemands,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-24,TheMoneyStock,Besidesthemonetarybase(H),thereareotherdefinitionsofthemoneystocksuchasM1(currency,checkingaccounts,travelerschecks)M2(M1plussavingsaccounts,smalltermdeposits,moneyheldinmoneymarketaccounts)M3(M2pluslargetermdepositsandinstitutionalmoneymarketbalances),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-25,Table8.1-MeasuresoftheMoneyStock,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-26,Inflation,TheinflationrateistheproportionalrateofchangeinthepricelevelSince,theinflationrate()willbe,v=growthrateofvelocitym=growthrateofthemoneystocky=growthrateofrealGDP,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-27,Inflation,ExamplegrowthrateofrealGDP=4%peryeargrowthrateofvelocity=2%peryeargrowthrateofthemoneystock=5%peryear,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-28,Inflation,Thebulkofchangesintherateofinflationareduetochangesinthegrowthrateofthemoneystockthegrowthrateofthemoneystock(m)canchangequicklyandsubstantiallychangesinthegrowthratesofrealGDP(y)andvelocity(v)aregenerallysmaller,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-29,Inflation,Intherealworld,inflationisnotalwaysproportionaltomoneygrowthinthe1980s,bothinflationandvelocityfellsharplybutthemoneystockgrewinthefirsthalfofthe1990s,velocityfellmeantthathighgrowthofthemoneystockdidnotleadtohighinflationinthesecondhalfofthe1990s,velocitygrewmoneysupplygrowthwasnegativetokeepinflationfromrising,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-30,Figure8.6-MoneyGrowthandInflationAreNotAlwaysParallel,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-31,MoneyDemand,Economictheoryimpliesthatmoneydemandshouldbeinverselyrelatedtothenominalinterestratecashandcheckingaccountbalancesearnlittleornointerestthepurchasingpowerofmoneyerodesattherateofinflationtheexpectedrealreturnonmoneyis-e,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-32,MoneyDemand,Theopportunitycostofholdingmoneyisthedifferencebetweentherateofreturnonotherassets(r)andtherateofreturnonmoney(-e)theopportunitycostofholdingmoneyisthenominalinterestratei=r+eAstheopportunitycostofholdingmoney(i)rises,thequantityofmoneybalancesdemandedfalls,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-33,Figure8.7-MoneyDemandandtheInflationRate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-34,MoneyDemand,Thevelocityofmoneycanberepresentedby,VLrepresentsthefinancialtechnology-driventrendinvelocityV0+Vi(r+e)representsthedependenceofthedemandformoneyonthenominalinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-35,MoneyDemand,Thedemandfornominalmoneybalancesis,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-36,Money,Prices,andInflation,Supposethattherateofgrowthofthemoneystockpermanentlyincreasestheinflationratewillriseiftherealinterestrateisstable,theopportunitycostofholdingmoneywillrisethevelocityofmoneywillincreaseifthemoneystockandrealGDPremainfixed,thepricelevelwilljumpsuddenlyanddiscontinuously,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-37,Figure8.8-EffectsofaRiseinMoneyGrowth,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-38,TheCostsofInflation,Thecostsofexpectedinflationaresmallrequiresyoutomakemoretripstothebankfirmsmustspendresourceschangingtheirpriceshouseholdsfinditdifficulttodetermineagooddealfromabadoneourtaxlawsarenotdesignedtodealwellwithinflation,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-39,TheCostsofInflation,Thecostsofunexpectedinflationaremoresignificantredistributeswealthfromcreditorstodebtorscreditorsreceivelesspurchasingpowerthantheyhadanticipateddebtorsfindthepaymentstheymustmakelessburdensomethantheyhadexpected,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-40,Hyperinflation,occurswheninflationrisestomorethan20percentpermonthariseswhengovernmentsattempttoobtainextrarevenuebyprintingmoneyfinancingitsspendingbylevyingataxonholdingsofcashknownasaninflationtax,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-41,Figure8.9-TheInflationTax,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-42,Hyperinflation,EventuallypricesrisesorapidlythatthemonetarysystembreaksdownpeoplewouldratherdealinbartertermsRealGDPbeginstofalltheeconomylosesthebenefitsofthedivisionoflaborIntheend,thecurrencybecomesworthless,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-43,ChapterSummary,By“money”economistsmeansomethingspecial:wealthintheformofreadily-spendablepurchasingpowerWithoutmoneyitishardtoimaginehowoureconomycouldsuccessfullyfunctionthefactthateveryonewillacceptmoneyaspaymentforgoodsandservicesisnecessaryforthemarketeconomytofunction,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,8-44,ChapterSummary,Moneyisnotonlyamediumofexchange,itisalsoaunitofaccount:ayardstickthatweusetomeasurevaluesandtospecifycontracts,Copyright2002byTheMcGr