宏观经济学及财务知识分析规划综合

Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-1,CHAPTER2,MeasuringtheMacroeconomy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-2,Questions,Whatkeydatadomacroeconomistslookat?Howarekeymacroeconomicdataestimatedandcalculated?Whatisthedifferencebetween“nominal”and“real”values?Howarestockmarketvaluesrelatedtointerestrates?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-3,Questions,Howareinterestratesrelatedtothepricelevelandtheinflationrate?Howisunemploymentrelatedtototalproduction?Whatisright-andwhatiswrong-withthekeymeasureofeconomicactivity,realGDP?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-4,TheImportanceofData,EconomistsusequantitativedatatoexamineandunderstandbehaviorpricesquantitiesvaluesDatacanbeusedintwowaysmakequantitativeforecaststesteconomictheories,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-5,MostImportantMacroeconomicData,realGDPtheunemploymentratetheinflationratetheinterestratethelevelofthestockmarkettheexchangerate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-6,Table2.1-TheSixKeyEconomicVariables,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-7,TheExchangeRate,ThenominalexchangerateistherelativepriceoftwodifferentcurrenciesdeterminedintheforeignexchangemarketExample1.00equals$1.20$1.00equals0.83,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-8,TheExchangeRate,DomesticexportersearnforeigncurrencywhentheyexportproductsneedtotradetheforeigncurrencyfordollarsForeignproducersearndollarswhenU.S.residentsimporttheirproductsneedtotradethedollarsforforeigncurrency,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-9,Figure2.1-TheMarketforForeignExchange,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-10,TheExchangeRate,Therealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedforchangesinthevalueofthecurrencydependsonthenominalexchangerateandthepricelevel,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-11,TheExchangeRate,Example1nominalexchangeratechangesfrom$1.20=1.00to$2.40=1.00priceleveldoublesrealexchangerateisunchangedExample2nominalexchangerateremainsatthesamelevel($1.20=1.00)priceleveldoublesrealexchangeratefallsbyhalf,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-12,TheExchangeRate,Example3nominalexchangerateincreasesfrom$1.20=1.00to$2.30=1.00pricelevelremainsthesamerealexchangeratedoubles,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-13,TheExchangeRate,Tocalculatetherealexchangerate(),youneedthreepiecesofinformationpricelevelinthehomecountry(P)pricelevelabroad(P*)nominalexchangerate(e),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-14,TheExchangeRate,TherearemanydifferentcurrenciesintheworldmanydifferentexchangeratesEconomistsconstructanexchangerateindextorepresent“the”exchangerateeachcountryreceivesaweightequaltoitsshareoftotalU.S.trade,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-15,TheExchangeRate,Theexchangerateindexisbyaveragingeachcountryscurrentexchangeraterelativetoitsexchangerateinthebaseyear(1992),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-16,Figure2.2-TheExchangeRateIndex,1992-1998,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-17,TheStockMarket,ThemostrepresentativeindexoftheU.S.stockmarketistheStandardandPoorsCompositeIndex(S&P500)ThemostcommonlydiscussedindexoftheU.S.stockmarketistheDow-JonesIndustrialAverage,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-18,TheStockMarket,StockmarketaveragesareinnominaltermsmustdividebysomemeasureofthepriceleveltogettherealvalueofthestockmarketTherealvalueofthestockmarketisasensitiveindicatoroftherelativeoptimismorpessimismofinvestorscanforecastfutureinvestmentspending,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-19,TheStockMarket,Investorsfaceachoicebetweenholdingstocksandholdingbondsstocksaresharesofownershipofacorporationentitlesyoutoaportionofthecompanysprofitsbondsaredebtsthatthecorporationowesyoupaysperiodicinterestpaymentsandreturnsprincipaltoyouatmaturity,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-20,TheStockMarket,Ratesofreturnforbonds,therateofreturnistheinterestrate(r)forstocks,therateofreturnistheratioofearningspershare(Es)tothepricepaid(Ps)Stocksareriskyinvestorsmayrequireariskpremium(s),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-21,TheStockMarket,Investorswillholdonlystocksif,Investorswillholdonlybondsif,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-22,TheStockMarket,Investorswillholdbothstocksandbondsif,Thismeansthatthevalueofastockisequalto,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-23,TheStockMarket,HowcanwemeasureEs?newspaperreportswhatthefirmsaccountantshavecalculated(Ea)investorsareinterestedinsomelong-runaverageofexpectedfutureearnings(Es)needanestimateoftherelationshipbetweenEaandEs,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-24,Figure2.3-CalculatingtheValueofaBasketofStocks,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-25,TheStockMarket,providesinformationonthecurrentlevelofprofits(earnings)whetherinvestorsareoptimisticorpessimisticthecurrentcostofcapitalattitudestowardrisk,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-26,TheInterestRate,isthepriceatwhichpurchasingpowercanbeshiftedfromthefutureintothepresentisnotasinglelumpsum,butanongoingstreamofpaymentsmadeovertimeisaflowvariable,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-27,TheInterestRate,ThereisalargenumberofdifferentinterestratesthatvarybyriskdurationtaxtreatmentPublishedinterestratesarenominalinterestrates,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-28,Figure2.4-TheRealversustheNominalInterestRate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-29,ThePriceLevel,ismostfrequentlymeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)whichiscalculatedmonthlybytheBureauofLaborStatisticsisanexpenditure-weightedindex,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-30,Table2.5-CalculatingaPriceIndexforFruit:AnExample,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-31,TheConsumerPriceIndex,Priceindexformula,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-32,TheConsumerPriceIndex,Inthebaseyear,thepriceindexwillequal100,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-33,TheConsumerPriceIndex,Inthesubsequentyear,thepriceindexwillequal138,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-34,KindsofIndexNumbers,Laspeyresindexusesrelativeexpenditurelevelsinafixedbaseyearasweightsexample:ConsumerPriceIndexPaascheindexusescurrent,variableexpenditurelevelsasweightsexample:GDPdeflator,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-35,KindsofIndexNumbers,AllpriceindicesareimperfecttheLaspeyresindexoverstatestheeffectsofpriceincreasesbasedonafixedmarketbasketdoesnottakeintoaccountthatconsumerssubstituterelativelycheapergoodsforrelativelymoreexpensivegoodswhenpricesrise(substitutionbias),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-36,KindsofIndexNumbers,AllpriceindicesareimperfectthePaascheindexunderstatestheeffectsofpriceincreasesdoestakeaccountofsubstitutiondoesnottakeintoaccountthefactthatsubstituteditemsareless-valuedthantheitemstheyreplace,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-37,TheInflationRate,isameasureoftherateofchangeinthepricelevelovertimeisaflowvariablecanbemeasuredusingdifferentpriceindicesConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)GDPdeflator,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-38,Figure2.5-DifferentMeasuresofU.S.Inflation,1960-2000,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-39,TheUnemploymentRate,isthefractionofpeoplewhowantajobarelookingforajobcannotfindajobiscalculatedusingtheCurrentPopulationSurveymonthlysurveybytheBureauofLaborStatistics,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-40,TheUnemploymentRate,Individualsareclassifiedintooneoffourcategoriesthosewhoareemployedthosewhoareoutofthelaborforceanddonotwantajobcurrentlythosewhodowantajobcurrently,buthavegivenuplookingforonethosewhodowantajobandarecurrentlylookingforone,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-41,TheUnemploymentRate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-42,Figure2.6-TheU.S.UnemploymentRatesince1950,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-43,TheUnemploymentRate,isastockvariablemayunderestimatetherealexperienceofunemploymentdiscouragedworkersworkerswhoarepart-timeforeconomicreasonsvarybydemographicgroup,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-44,Figure2.7-U.S.UnemploymentRatesbyDemographicGroup,1960-2000,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-45,OkunsLaw,describestherelationshipbetweenunemploymentandoutputintheU.S.,impliesthata1percentage-pointfallinunemploymentisassociatedwithanextra2.5percentagepointsofgrowthinrealGDP,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-46,Figure2.8-OkunsLaw,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-47,RealGDP,iscalculatedbyaddingupthevalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedintheeconomyisaflowvariableincludesfinalgoodsandservicespurchasedbyconsumersfirmsthegovernment,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-48,NominalversusRealGDP,NominalGDPmeasurescurrentoutputusingcurrent-yearpriceschangesinnominalGDPcanoccurfromchangesineitheroutputorpricesRealGDPmeasurescurrentoutputusingpricesfromabaseyearchangesinrealGDPcanonlyoccurifoutputchanges,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-49,NominalversusRealGDP,Example,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-50,BaseYearNominalGDP=$10.00RealGDP=$10.00CurrentYearNominalGDP=$13.10RealGDP=$11.50,NominalversusRealGDP,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-51,MoreonGDP,IntermediategoodsaregoodssoldtoafirmforuseinfurtherproductionareexcludedfromGDPChangesininventoriesarecountedaspartofinvestmentImputationsaremadeforgoodsandservicesnotsoldthroughmarkets,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-52,ComponentsofRealGDP(Y),Consumption(C)Investment(I)residentialstructuresnon-residentialstructuresproducersdurableequipmentchangesinbusinessinventoriesGovernmentpurchases(G)Netexports(NX),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-53,Table2.8-ComponentsofGDP,ThirdQuarterof2000,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-54,WhatIsandIsNotinGDP,IncludedinGDP(butshouldnotbe)replacementofworn-outorobsoletecapitalgovernmentpurchaseswhichcouldbecountedasintermediategoodsNotincludedinGDP(butshouldbe)householdproductiondepletionofscarcenaturalresources“bads”,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,2-55,Figure2.9-LaborForceParticipationRatesbyGender,1948-1996,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,