萨尔瓦多国际经济学(第十版)

.,InternationalEconomicsTenthEdition,ThePriceAdjustmentMechanismwithFlexibleandFixedExchangeRatesDominickSalvatoreJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,CHAPTERSIXTEEN,16,.,Inthischapter:,IntroductionAdjustmentwithFlexibleExchangeRatesEffectofExchangeRateChangesonDomesticPricesandtheTermsofTradeStabilityofForeignExchangeMarketsElasticitiesintheRealWorldAdjustmentUndertheGoldSystem,.,Introduction,AssumptionsInternationalprivatecapitalflowstakeplaceonlyaspassiveresponsestocovertemporarytradeimbalances.Thenationwantstocorrectadeficitinitscurrentaccountbyexchangeratechanges.,.,AdjustmentwithFlexibleExchangeRates,Priceadjustmentmechanismreliesondepreciationanddevaluationofcurrencytoadjustcurrentaccountandbalanceofpayments.Incomeadjustmentmechanismreliesonincomechangesinthenationandabroadtomaketheadjustments.Elasticityofthedemandandsupplycurveswilldetermineeffectivenessofadjustmentmechanisms.,FIGURE16-1Balance-of-PaymentsAdjustmentswithExchangeRateChanges.,FIGURE16-2DerivationoftheU.S.DemandandSupplyCurvesforForeignExchange.,.,EffectofExchangeRateChangesonDomesticPricesandtheTermsofSale,Thegreaterthedevaluationordepreciationofthedollar,thegreateritsinflationaryimpact,andthelessfeasibleistheincreaseoftheexchangerateforcorrectingbalanceofpaymentsdeficits.,.,EffectofExchangeRateChangesonDomesticPricesandtheTermsofSale,Depreciationofthecurrencyincreasespricesofbothexportsandimportsintermsofdomesticcurrency.Termsoftradecanrise,fallorremainunchanged,dependingontherelativemagnitudeofthepricechanges.,.,StabilityofForeignExchangeMarkets,Unstableforeignexchangemarket-whenadisturbancefromequilibriumpushestheexchangeratefurtherawayfromequilibrium.Supplycurveisnegativelyslopedandmoreelasticthanthedemandcurveofforeignexchange.Flexibleexchangeratesystemincreases(ratherthanreduces)abalanceofpaymentsdisequilibrium.,.,StabilityofForeignExchangeMarkets,Stableforeignexchangemarket-whenadisturbancefromequilibriumgivesrisetoautomaticforcesthatpushexchangeratebacktoequilibrium.Supplycurveispositivelysloped,orifnegativelysloped,islesselasticthanthedemandcurveofforeignexchange.,FIGURE16-3StableandUnstableForeignExchangeMarkets.,.,StabilityofForeignExchangeMarkets,Marshall-Lernercondition-Sumofthepriceelasticitiesofdemandforimportsanddemandforexportsis(inabsoluteterms)indicatesdegreeofforeignexchangemarketstability:Greaterthan1=stableforeignexchangemarketDevaluationrequiredtocorrectBOPdeficit.Lessthan1=unstableforeignexchangemarketRevaluationrequiredtocorrectBOPdeficit.Equalto1=changeinexchangerateleavesbalanceofpaymentsunchanged.,.,ElasticitiesintheRealWorld,EmpiricalevidencesuggeststhattheMarshall-Lernerconditionholdsfortheforeignexchangemarket,indicatingastablemarket.Quantityresponsetopricechangemustbemeasuredoverlongertimeperiodsforaccurateelasticitymeasures.,FIGURE16-4TheIdentificationProblem.,.,ElasticitiesintheRealWorld,JunzandRhomberg(1973)identifiedfivepossiblelagsinquantityresponsestopricechangesininternationaltrade:Recognitionlagbeforepricechangebecomesevident.Decisionlagtotakeadvantageofpricechanges.DeliverylagofnewordersplacedReplacementlagtouseupavailableinventoriesbeforeplacingneworders.Productionlagtochangeoutputmixresultingfrompricechanges.,.,ElasticitiesintheRealWorld,J-CurveEffectAnationstradebalancemayactuallyworsensoonafterdevaluationordepreciationbeforeimprovinglateron.Thisoccursbecauseimportpricestendtorisefasterthanexportprices,withquantitiesinitiallynotchangingmuch.Overtime,exportpricescatchupwithimportpricessoinitialdeteriorationintradebalanceisreversed,generatingaJ-shapedpatterntoexchangeratemovements.,FIGURE16-5TheJ-Curve.,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Thegoldstandardoperatedfromabout1880tooutbreakofWorldWarIin1914.Attempttoreestablishgoldstandardafterthewarfailedin1931duringGreatDepression.Advantagesanddisadvantagesofgoldstandardalsoapplytofixedexchangesystem(BrettonWoods,orgold-exchangestandard)operatingfromWorldWarIIuntilitscollapsein1971.,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Underthegoldstandard,eachnationspecifiedthegoldcontentofitscurrency:1goldcoincontained113.0016grainsofgold$1goldcoincontained23.22grainsofgoldThisimpliesafixedexchangerate,ormintparity,of:R=$/=113.0016/23.22=$4.87/,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,ThecostofshippinggoldfromNewYorktoLondonwasapproximately3cents.So,theactualexchangeratewouldalwaysliebetween$4.84/(goldimportpoint)and$4.90/(goldexportpoint).,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Thetendencyofthedollartodepreciate(riseabovegoldexportpoint)wascounteredbygoldshipmentsfromtheUnitedStates.Goldoutflows=sizeofU.S.balanceofpaymentsdeficit.Thetendencyofthedollartoappreciate(fallbelowgoldimportpoint)wascounteredbygoldshipmentstotheUnitedStates.Goldinflows=sizeofU.S.balanceofpaymentssurplus.,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Theprice-specie-flowmechanismistheautomaticadjustmentmechanismunderthegoldstandard.Ifatradeimbalanceexists,goldwillflowfromthecountrywithatradedeficittothecountrywithatradesurplus.Thefallingoldsuppliesinthetradedeficitcountryreducesitsmoneysupplyandpushesitspricelevellower.Theincreaseingoldsuppliesinthetradesurpluscountryincreasesitsmoneysupplyandraisesitspricelevel.,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Thepricelevelmovementisbasedonthequantitytheoryofmoney:MV=PQwhereM=moneysupplyV=velocityofcirculationofmoneyP=generalpriceindexQ=physicaloutput,.,AdjustmentUndertheGoldStandard,Asthepricelevelfallsinthecountrywithatradedeficit,exportsofitsgoodsandserviceswillbeencouraged.Asthepricelevelincreasesinthecountrywithatradesurplus,exportsofitsgoodsandserviceswillbediscoura