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.,Unit6,Risk,.,Warmer,BusinessBriefRiskThechanceofharm,injuryorloss=threadThechanceofchangeofdirection,growingandmakingprofits=opportunityTrade-off:betweenriskandreward(利害,有多大利,就有多大的害。)物物交换,.,Warmer,Theworldismuchriskiertoday,Becauseeverythingismuchmoreinterconnected.-risk-managementexpertRonDembo(gaveupaprofessorshipatYaleUniversitytolaunchhiscompany.)-Hasthereeverbeenariskiertimetobeinbusiness?Allbusinessisbuiltonrisk.,.,Warmer,RisksinbusinessKidnappingofmangersConfiscationofassets(没收,充公)Devaluationofshares,currencyBeextorted:illegallybeforcedtogivemoney.(勒索)Beinginsolvency:nothavingenoughmoneytopaydebts(无力偿还债务)Facingfraudandcorruption,.,Warmer,Industrialespionage(商业间谍行为)Invest:puttingmoneyintoanewventureVenturecapitalist:whoputmoneyintosuchbusinessesspreadtheirrisksothatthepaybackfromoneortwosuccessfulventureswillhopefullymorethancompensateforthemoneylostinthefailures.,.,Warmer,Reputationalrisk,brandsuicide,productliabilityclaim(产品质量承诺书)Productrecalls(产品召回)Theriskofmanagementcomplacency(自满),.,Warmer,NoRisk,NoRewardyoullmeetpeopleandorganizationsthatarestillpreparedtogamble-intelligently,shrewdly,selectively-eveninaperiodofinsecurityandinstability.Theirstoriesofferlessonsinstrategy,marketing,leadership,Rlistentotheanalysts.Theyrefullofpredictions:Interestrateswillbelower.Internetstockswillcrash.TheDowwillgodown.Theseso-calledexpertshavenoideawhatsgoingtohappen.Neverconfuseaforecastwithascenario.,.,Warmer,Regrets-TooFewtoMention?Lotsofpeoplethinkaboutriskintermsofprobabilities.Butprobabilityisawayofanalyzingeventsthatoccurmanytimes.Mostbusinessdecisionsareone-timeevents.Thinkingaboutprobabilitydoesnthelpmuchwiththosedecisions.Instead,youshouldthinkaboutwhatIcallregret.Regretisntthesameasdisappointment.Regretissensitivetospecificcircumstances,anditaddsapsychologicalfactortoyourchoices.Thegreatchanceifyoutakeit,youmaymakeagreatachievement,ifyoumissit,thatnevercomeagaintoyourlife.,.,Warmer,Formphraseswithrisky.RiskybusinessRiskydealRiskyinvestmentRiskylendingRiskyprojectRiskystrategyRiskyundertaking,.,Understandthequotation,Thepolicyofbeingtoocautiousisthegreatestriskofall.-JarwaharlaNehru(1899-1964),IndiasfirstPrimeMinister,.,Startingup,TaskC-D1doingnothing2creditorguaranteerisk3politicalrisk4riskofcatastropheordisruption(=theriskofnotbeingabletocontinuebusinessasusualbecauseofsomeunforeseenevent),.,Vocabulary:describingrisk,.,Vocabulary:describingrisk,TaskB1e2f3g4d5c6b7a,.,Vocabulary:describingrisk,TaskCHigh:Great,huge,serious,significant,substantial,terrible,tremendousLow:Faint,low,negligible,remote,slight,.,Listening:Managingrisk,TaskA1doingnothing2creditorguaranteerisk3politicalrisk4riskofcatastropheordisruption,.,Listening:Managingrisk,1a)trueB)trueC)false21)thecompanywillendupwithobsoleteproductinanobsoletemarket2)thecustomermaynotpay3)governmentactionsmaychangethesituation.4)acompanymayencounterfraudorcriminaldamage.,.,Listening:Managingrisk,TaskB1companiesshouldhavegoodquality,up-to-dateandreliableinformationavailable.2theyshouldhaveagoodmanagementteaminplacetoidentifyanddealwithrisks.3thereshouldbegoodlinesofcommunicationbetweenthepeopleinthecompanywhowillplayanimportantroleindealingwithanyrisk.,.,Reading:Risksfromglobalization,TaskB1e2g3d4f5a6c7bTaskD1globalization2thedevelopmentofcommunicationtechnologies,.,Reading:Risksfromglobalization,TaskEa)personalsecurityrisk:terrorism,kidnapping,pettycrimeb)reputationalrisk:directactionbypressuregroups,consumeractivism,humanrightsdemandsc)politicalrisk:internationalsanctions,currencydevaluationd)financialrisk:organisedcrime,fraud,corruption,extortion,pettycrime,.,Reading:Risksfromglobalization,TaskFForexample,theSsmightmentionoilcompaniesandenvironmentalprotest,pharmaceuticalscompaniesandprotectorsagainstrecessionthatparticularlyaffectscertaintypesofcompany.,.,Internetresource:,TheFastCompanywebsitefeaturesthreearticles,thefirstlooksattheroleofRiskManagersinmoderncompanies,anotherarticlefeaturesadviceonhowtomanagerisk,andthefinalarticlearguesthatthereisnorewardwithoutrisk.,.,Casestudy:Ariskbusiness,.,Casestudy:Ariskbusiness,Assets,otherthanstock,havedeclinedinvalue,by20percent,perhapstheyhavesoldsomeequipmentorproperty,ortheoverallvalueofitsequipmenthasfallenbecauseitisnotbeingreplaced.Stockhasmorethandoubledinvalue,perhapsindicatinganincreaseinstockthattheyhavenotsucceededinselling.Saleshavedeclinedby25percent,andprofitsevenmoresharply,confirmingthedifficultsituationdescribedabove.,.,Title,Title,Title,Descriptionofthecontents,Descriptionofthecontents,Descriptionofthecontents,.,配色方案
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