治理结构与公司价值-美国与东亚若干经验比较[1].ppt

CorporateGovernanceandtheValueofFirms-SomeExperiencesofU.SandAsia,ProfessorK.C.JohnWei,PhDTel:(852)-2358-7676;Fax:(852)-2358-1749E-mail:johnweiust.hkDepartmentofFinance,HKUSTandVisitingDepartmentofFinance,PekingUniversityPreparedforCCER,PekingUniversityNovember8,2003,ProfileofProf.K.C.JohnWei,Prof.K.C.JohnWeireceivedhisPhDinFinanceattheUniversityofIllinois,Champaign-Urbana,in1984.HeservedtheUniversityofMississippiasanAssistantProfessorfromJanuary1984toJune1988.AfterservingtheUniversityofMiamiasanAssistantProfessorforoneyear,hemovedtoIndianaUniversity,whereheservedasanAssociatedProfessorfromJuly1989toJune1992.SinceJuly1992,Prof.JohnWeihasbeenservingtheHKUSTBusinessSchoolinitiallyasanAssociateProfessorandlaterwaspromotedtofullProfessor.HeservedasActingHeadoftheDepartmentofFinancefromJanuary2001August2002andFebruaryJune2003.Prof.WeihasalsobeenappointedtheDirectoroftheCentreforAsianFinancialMarketssince1995.HewasvisitingUniversityofTexasatAustinfromSeptembertoDecember2002andiscurrentlyvisitingGuanghauSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity.Withresearchfocusesonempiricalresearchincapitalmarkets,derivativesandassetpricingofAsianandU.S.markets,Prof.Weihasproducedanumberofhighqualitypapersontheseareas.Manyofthesepaperswerepublishedintopjournalsinfinanceandhavemadeconsiderablecontributionstothefinanceliterature.Heisanauthoroffourbooks(inChinese)onHongKongstockandwarrantsmarketsandTaiwanesestockmarket.Inaddition,Prof.WeiisaregularcolumnwriterfortheHongKongEconomicJournal,alocalnewspaperspecialisedinfinancialnews.Ontheconsultancyactivities,Prof.WeihashelpedHangSengBanktodevelopapersonalfinancialplanningmodelcalled“SmartInvest,”andHSBCtodevelopafinancialplanningmodel,called“Rule-BasedInvestmentSolutions.”HealsoconductedaconsultancyprojectinitiatedbyHKSARforAPECandafewprojectsforHongKongStockExchange.Prof.WeihavebeeninvolvedexecutiveteachingforHKUST,PekingUniversity,HongKongStockExchange,Chineseprovincialgovernmentofficials,generalcorporateexecutives,XieanJassen,Daimler/Chrysler,ChinaMobile,Aspire,andBenQ.,Valuecreationandbusinessstrategies,ValuationCreation,Qijia,CEO,Xiushen,Zhiguo,Pingtianxia,Managementteam,Assetsinplace,Growthopportunity,Capital,People,ManagementskillsVisionIntegrity,CorporategovernanceIncentives,RestructuringCompetitiveadvantages,Mintherightindustry)Lowcostoperator:HonHaiPrecision,TaiwanSemiconductor,Dell,BYD(makemoneyfromgoodmanagement)Lowfinancingcost:GEBarriertoentry:(1)capital,(2)technology(patents),(3)distributionchannels,(4)governmentprotectionExample:Profitmargin=20%;WACC=15%;Capitalturnover=2timesForevery$100sales,profit=$20,requiredcapitalinvestment=$50,costofcapital=$50*15%=$7.50,abnormalprofit=$20$7.5=$12.5.Atwhatlevelofprofitmargin,willthefirmbecomeamaturecompany?,Abnormalprofit:Motorola,EricssonandNokia,Earningsquality,Areyourcompanyfutureincomeseasytoforecast?Aretheysensitivetobusinessorindustrycycle?(MicrosoftvsIntel;GMvsCocaCola)Economy-widerisk:Businesscycle(GMvsMerck)Operatingrisk:Levelofcapitalintensity(TSMCvsYuYuan)Financingrisk:Leverage(NWDvsSHKProperties)Accountinginformationrisk:Disclosureandcorporategovernance(CASvsIAS;TSMCvsUMC)InventoryAccountsreceivablesGrossmarginSbutthecostcanbehigh)DivesturesLayoffsDevelopingavalue-orientedapproachtoleadingandmanagingtheircompaniesafterrestructuringEstablishingprioritiesbasedonvaluecreationGearingplanning,performancemeasurement,andincentivecompensationsystemstowardshareholdervalueCommunicatingwithinvestorsintermsofvaluecreation,WhenareCompaniesinNeedofRestructuring?,Scoreof6-24with24beingtheworst(basedonMonitor)Totalreturntoshareholders(TRS)Salesgrowthrelativetoindustry(growth)Operatingmarginrelativetoindustry(operatingefficiency)Capitalreturnrelativetoindustry(ROIC)Numberofbusinessunits(focus?)Distancefrommedianindustrycapitalstructure(WACC,optimalcapitalstructure),RestructuringProcess,DiagnosticScan(Decisiontorestructure)Restructuring(Implementationplan)Value-basedManagement(VBMimplemented)IncentiveDesign(Newincentivesystem),RestructuringFramework,Currentmarketvalue,Totalpotentialvalue,DCFvalueusinganalystforecasts,Valuewithinternalandexternalimprovements,DCFvalueusingmanagementexpectation,Valuewithinternalimprovements,MarketInefficiencyTakeoverspeculationInternalimprovementsCorporategovernance,Optimalopportunity,Publicheldbusiness,Growthopportunities+FinancialEngineeringCapitalstructureDividendpolicyRiskmanagement,Disposal/newownersM&AJointventureSpin-offsIPOsLetterstockDivesture,OperatingimprovementsRevenuegrowthCostreductionCapitalefficiency,PerceptionGapOvervaluedUndervalued,ValuecreatedThroughRestructuring,RestructuringFramework:Example,Thiscompanyhad10businessunitsanditsstockpricewasdeclining,MarketValue$1,000,MaximumValuePotential$1,800,DCFvalueusinganalystforecasts$1,050,Valuewithinternalandexternalimprovements$1,650,DCFvalueusingmanagementexpectation$950,Valuewithinternalimprovement$1,200,MarketInefficiency$50,Valuecreated$800,Growthopportunities+FinancialEngineering$150Notenoughdebt,Internalimprovements$450Sold3losers,Internalimprovements$250ExitunprofitableproductlinesReduceinventory,PerceptionGap-$100Overvalued,ValuecreatedThroughRestructuring,ImproveOperations:InternalImprovements,ChallengeeverypartofthebusinesssystemProcurementRawmaterialsManufacturing/Work-in-progressFinishedgoods(aretheycompetitive?)InventoryDistributionchannelandsalesAccountsreceivable,Rethinkyourportfolioofbusinesses:ExternalImprovements,FocusontwodimensionstolookforvalueimprovementValuecreationpotentialCompetitiveadvantageDecision:Highvaluecreation+bestincompetitiveadvantage:shouldgrowHighvaluecreation+weakincompetitiveadvantage:shouldimproveLowvaluecreationbusinesses:shoulddispose,OwnershipAlternatives:ExternalImprovements,Spin-offsAvoidcrosssubsidization(IBM/PC)Eliminatemanagementconstraints(ATT&Lucent)TaxfreeAnnouncementeffectispositive(mayexceedvalueofentitytobespunoff)InitialPublicOfferingsAllowdirectinvestmentinasubsidiaryTaxfreeifIPOkeepscash(whichmaybeusedtorepaycorporatedebt)Allowconsolidation(taxandaccounting)iflessthan20%ofequityissoldDirectSalesTaxable(mayprovidetaxshield),FinancialEngineering,MinimizingWeightedAverageCostofCapitalDoesNotMaximizeValueofFirm(Bankruptcycost),Costofequity,WACC,After-taxcostofdebt,MinimumWACC,MaximizeValue,Debt/Equity,Percent,SourcesofRestructuringValue,IntheU.S.,theaveragebreakdownofsourcesofvaluecreationfromrestructuringindicatesthatapproximately60%comesfromstrategicandoperatingimprovements,PuttheValueCreationPlanintoAction,PutValueintoPlanningFocusplanningandbusinessperformancereviewsaroundvaluecreationDevelopValue-OrientedTargetsandPerformanceMeasuresFocusonameasurethatincorporatebothgrowthandreturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC)EP(Economicprofit)=Investedcapital(ROICOpportunitycostofcapital)TieCompensationtoValueAssessValueofStrategicInvestmentsDevelopInvestorCommunicationsStrategyReshapetheCFOsRole,SummaryforRestructuring,Managingvalueconsistsofthreebroadsteps:Takingstockofthevalue-creationsituationwithinthecompanyandidentifyingrestructuringopportunitiesActingonthoseopportunities(operationalefficiencyimprovements,divestures,acquisitions,reorganization)Instillingavalue-creationphilosophyAmanaging-valuefocusdoesnotcreatevaluethroughfinancialmanipulations.ItcreatesvaluethroughdevelopingsoundstrategicandoperatingplansMostcompanieswouldbenefitfromathroughreviewofrestructuringopportunitiesManagersneedtoensurethattheyidentifyandactonvalue-creationopportunitiesregularly,ApproachestoValuation,DiscountCashFlow(DCF)valuationComparativemeasuresorrelativevaluationRealOptionsAnalysis(ROA)valuation,DiscountedCashFlow(DCF)Valuation,EstimatingFreeCashFlow,MeasuringValue,F1,Firm,Cashflows,InvestedCapitalFixedAssetsOperatingWorkingCapital,Year1,Year2,Year3,Year4,Year5,DiscountedCashFlowModel,Valueofoperations=Discountedvalueofexpectedfuturefreecashflow(FCF)CashflowsTimingRisk,FreeCashFlow-Definition,Freecashflowsare:after-taxcashflowfromoperationsremainingafterallre-investmentneedshavebeenmet.availablefordistributiontoallprovidersofcapital(bothshareholdersandbondholders).,DCFValuation,0,1,2,T,TerminalValueT=FCFT+1/(WACC-g)FCF1FCF2FCFT-1FCFT,T-1,FCF=FreecashflowWACC=WeightedAverageCostofCapitalTV=TerminalValue(attimeT)=FCFT+1/(WACCg),wheregisthelong-termgrowthrateinsalesT=Lengthoftheforecasthorizon(typically,7to10years),Sensitivityanalysis,Examinesensitivityofvaluationstodifferentassumptionsabout:Salesgrowth(affectsFCF)Profitmarginsoroperatingefficiencyoroperatingcost(affectsFCF)Assetturnoverratios(I.e.,capitalexpenditureorworkingcapitalinvestment)(affectFCF)Weightedaveragecostofcapital,FundamentalDriversofaCompanysValue,ValueDrivers,BasicsofValueCreation,Afirmcreatesvalueonlyifitearnsareturnonitsinvestedcapitalthatishigherthanthecostoffinancingtheinvestment.Thatis,ROICWACCThreevaluedrivers:GrowthAbnormalreturn(ROICWACC)WACC(risk),ValueCreation,Assets,InvestedCapital$100million,After-taxoperatingprofit(NOPLAT)$18million,ReturnonInvestedCapital18%,Debt$50million,Equity$50million,CostofDebt(after-tax)6%,CostofEquity16%,InvestedCapital$100million,WeightedAverageCostofCapital11%,TheReturnSpread,ReturnSpread=ReturnonInvestedCapital(ROIC)WeightedAverageCostofCapital(WACC)WhenROICWACC,thefirmcreatesvalue.WhenROIC=WACC,thefirmneithercreatesvalue,nordestroysvalue.WhenROICWACCGrowth:gRisk:WACC,ROICTree,ROIC,EBIT/InvestedCapital,CashTaxRate,EBIT/Sales,Sales/InvestedCapital,OperatingWorkingCapital/Sales,NetPPE/Sales,OtherAssets/Sales,COGS/Sales,Depreciation/Sales,SGAExpenses/Sales,ROIC=ProfitmarginxAssetTurnover,Value,Growth,ROIC,WACC,MergersandAcquisitions,IdentifyingValueCreationPossibilities,Whatmakestwofirmsworthmoretogetherthanapart?Synergy(relatedness,economiesofscaleandscope):Gillettesacquisitionof-DuracellEconomiesofverticalintegration(mergerofcompaniesatdifferentstagesofproduction):TimesacquisitionofWarnerBrothersComplementaryresources(Thetargetmayhaveauniqueproductbutlacktheengineeringandsalesorganizationtoproduceandmarketitonalargescale.)Quickerandcheapertomergewithafirmthatalreadyhasalotoftalentthantodevelopengineeringandsalestalentfromscratch.,EvidenceonValueCreationinM&ATransactions,Thecombinedvalueofcompaniesengagedinmergersandtenderoffersincreasesbyabout7percentaroundtakeoverannouncements.Howisthevalueshared?Targetsgetthebulkofit.Acquirersgetroughlyzero.,ReasonsForFailures,Overoptimisticappraisalofmarketpotential:skepticalaboutReboundfromacyclicalslumpTurnaroundRapidgrowthcontinuesOverestimationofsynergiesOverlookingproblems:duediligenceOverbidding:escalationcommitmentPoorpost-acquisitionintegration,ValueCreationorEnhancement,Summary,ValueEnhancement:Summary,Increasecashflowsfromexistinginvestments(NOPLAT)Poorinvests:keep,divest,orliquidateImproveoperatingefficiency:operatingmarginReducethetaxburdenReducenetcapitalexpendituresonexistinginvestmentsReducenoncashworkingcapitalIncreaseexpectedgrowth(gandROIC)Tradeoffonreinvestment:reducefreecashflowbutincreaseexpectedgrowthNotallgrowthsaregood:onlyROICWACCisgood,ValueEnhancement:Summary,Prolongtheperiodofhighgrowth(N)BrandnameadvantagePatents,licenses,andotherlegalprotectionsSwitchingcostCostadvantageReducethecostoffinancing(WACC)ChangeoperatingriskReduceoperatingleverageChangethefinancialmixChangefinancingtype,ValueCreation:Conclusion,AssetsinplaceRestructuring(increaseoperatingefficiency)Growthopportunity(g)NewinvestmentswithROICWACC(valuecreation)R&DandnewopportunityMergerandacquisitionProlongcompetitiveadvantageReducingWACCImprovecorporategovernanceReachoptimalcapitalstructureRiskmanagementtoreduceriskValue,Value,andValue,ValueCreationChart,Assetsinplace,ValueCreation,Growthoptions,Costofcapital,Restructuringtoimproveoperatingeffi