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Unlocking the Climate Puzzle解开气候之谜(1)Life has prospered on this planet for nearly four billion years. In that time, climate had fluctuated drastically, from ice ages lasting tens of thousands of years to epochs of steamy heat. With each change, sundry species have benefited and flourished.Others adapted, faltered, or died. Now, many experts believe, humans are imperiling their own ecological niche with the threat of global warming. The vaporous by-products of civilization, in the form of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (C0), have trapped enough heat in the atmosphere to raise Earths average surface air temperature a half degree Celsius (one degree Fahrenheit) during this century. If the trend continues, it could alter climate patterns worldwide-thawing glaciers, boosting sea level, scorching plains into deserts, and shifting vegetation zones.(1)生命在这个星球上已经发展了近四十亿年。在这段时间里,气候有大幅波动,从冰河时代到蒸汽时代延续了几千年。每一次改变,各种物种受益和繁荣。其他适应,步履蹒跚,或死亡。现在,许多专家认为,人类正在通过全球变暖危及自己的生态位。在本世纪,文明的气态副产物,以二氧化碳(C0)等温室气体的形式,把足够的热量困在大气中,来提高地球表面平均气温半摄氏度(1华氏度)。如果这种趋势继续下去,它可能会改变世界范围内的气候模式融化冰川,提高海平面,把平原烤成沙漠,以及改变植被区。(2) Or it might not. Global climate depends on combinations of factors interacting in subtle and complex ways that we do not yet fully understand. It is possible that the warming observed during this century may have resulted from natural variations, even though the increase has been much more rapid than what the planet has witnessed over the past hundred centuries. Moreover, the supercomputer simulations used to project future conditions may not be accurate.(2)或者不可能。全球气候取决于各种因素的组合,这些因素以微妙和复杂的方式相互作用,我们还没有完全了解。这是可能的,在本世纪中观察到的变暖可能是由于自然的变化,即使增加已远远超过这个星球在过去的几百个世纪已经见证过的。此外,用于展现未来条件的超级计算机模拟可能是不准确的。(3) Nonetheless, in 1995, after years of intense study, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sponsored by the United Nations, concluded tentatively that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. The amount of that influence, the group noted, is unknown because of uncertainties in key factors, including the degree to which clouds and the oceans affect the rate of temperature change. It may take a decade or more of additional research to resolve those uncertainties.(3)然而,由联合国发起的政府间气候变化专门委员会,经过数年集中的研究,在1995年,初步得到了“对照所有证据表明,人类对全球气候有明显的影响”这个结论。该委员会同时提到,由于“关键因素的不确定性”,包括云层和海洋对温度变化率的影响程度,人类对全球气候的影响量是未知的。解决这些不确定因素可能需要十年乃至更长时间的额外研究。(4) Meanwhile, much is known. And although the specific consequences of human activity remain ambiguous, our ability to alter the atmosphere is incontestable.(4)同时,大多是已知的。尽管人类活动的具体后果仍不明确,我们改变大气的能力是不可否认的。(5) What causes climate change? Weather is what happens outside your home this morning. Climate is what you can expect to happen outside during your 30-year mortgage. Over time small changes can make a big difference. Driven by tremendous flows of heat over the surface of the planet, Earths climate system is influenced by innumerable interacting variables.(5)是什么导致了气候变化?天气是这个早上出现在户外的自然现象。气候是在30年内可以预测的发生在户外的自然现象。随着时间的流逝,微小的变化会造成巨大的影响。由于星球表面上的巨大热流,无数相互作用的变量影响着地球的气候系统。Solar Input(6) Having traveled 93 million miles, solar energy hits the upper atmosphere at about the intensity of three 100-watt bulbs per square yardone-third of which is reflected back into space. The rest of the energy warms Earth and fuels its weather engine. 太阳能输入(6)已经走了9300万英里,太阳能达到高层大气时,每平方的强度大约是3个100瓦灯泡其中三分之一被反射回太空。其余的能量使地球变暖,并引起天气改变。The Atmosphere(7) A delicate balance of gases gives Earth an average temperature of 15(59). Greenhouse gases一water vapor, C0, methane, nitrous oxide, and others一absorb heat energy, then re-radiate a portion of it back to the surface.大气(7)气体的一种微妙平衡使地球平均温度为15(59)。温室气体一水汽,C0,甲烷,一氧化二氮,和其他气体一吸收热能,然后再辐射一部分返回地面。The Oceans(8) Covering 70 percent of Earths surface, oceans are the chief source of water vapor in the air. Oceans store heat efficiently and transport it thousands of miles. When warm water collects in one place, evaporation and cloud buildup may increase. Marine organisms consume huge amounts of C0.海洋(8)覆盖地球表面的百分之70,海洋是空气中的水蒸气的主要来源。海洋能有效地储存热能和把它运输数千英里。当温水聚集在一个地方,蒸发和云层积累可能会增加。海洋生物消耗大量的C0。The Water Cycle(9) Higher air temperatures can mean increased water evaporation and the melting of sea and land ice. Although water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas,evaporation also leads to cloud formation, which can have a cooling effect.水循环(9)更高的空气温度可以增加水的蒸发和融化海洋和陆地的冰。虽然水蒸气是最有效的温室气体,蒸发也导致云的形成,它可以有一个冷却效果。Clouds(10) The role of clouds is poorly understood, but they are known to both cool Earth by reflecting solar energy and warm Earth by trapping heat being radiated up from the surface.云层(10)人类对云层的作用了解很少,但是知道它们会通过反射太阳能使地面温度下降,且通过储存地表散发的热量使地面温度上升。Ice and Snow(11) Bright white expanses of ice and snow reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the planet. Melting sea ice draws heat from the ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover has decreased about 10 percent in the past 21 years, but no significant melting of the Antarctic ice sheet has been detected.冰和雪(11)广阔区域的明亮白色的冰和雪把阳光反射回太空,使地球冷却。融化的海冰从海洋中吸取热量。在北半球,雪覆盖在过去的21年中减少了约百分之10,但没有明显的南极冰盖的融化已经被检测到。Land Surface(12) When solar energy penetrates the land surface, it is converted into heat, most of which radiates upward quickly. Still, topography and land use can have major effects on climate. Mountain ranges can block clouds, creating dry shadows downwind. Sloping land allows more water runoff, leaving the land and air drier. A tropical forest will soak up C0,but once cleared for cattle ranching, the same land becomes a source of methane.(12)当太阳能渗入地表时,会转化为热能,其中大部分会很快上升散发到空气中。地形和土地使用仍然对气候有主要的影响。在下风口,山脉会挡住云层,形成缺乏雨水的“阴影地”。 坡地让更多的水分流失,使得土地和空气更加干燥。热带森林会吸收二氧化碳,但是一旦允许牲畜农场经营,这块土地将会产生大量的甲烷。Human Influences(13) Adding to the mix of greenhouse gases naturally present in the atmosphere, human activities magnify warming effects. Fuel combustion is the chief cause ofrising C0 concentrations. Ranching, rice farming, and landfills have raised methane levels. Aerosols, such as smoke and sulfates from industry, reflect sunlight and have temporary, localized cooling effects.人类的影响(13)增加在大气中自然存在的温室气体的混合,人类活动放大变暖的影响。燃料燃烧是C0浓度上升的一个主要原因。牧场,水稻种植,和垃圾填埋场已经提高甲烷的程度。悬浮颗粒,如来自工业的烟尘和硫酸盐,能反射阳光,有暂时的、局部的冷却效果。(14) If C0 emission increases are to blame for global warming, skeptics say, thentemperatures should have risen appreciably during the postwar economic boom, when fossil fuels were burned in escalating quantity. Jerry Mahlman, director of NOAAs Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton, however, has calculated that the surge in coal and oil use quickly increased the amount of sulfates aloft, prompting the cooling. After 1970 the longer term effect of C0 and methane overwhelmed the short-lived aerosols, accounting for the temperature rise since then.(14)质疑者们说,如果CO2的增加应该对全球变暖负责,那么在战后经济繁荣期间化石燃料被越来越多的燃烧时,温度应该很明显的增加。不管怎样,Jerry Mahlman,美国国家海洋和大气局位于普林斯顿关于地球物理流体动力学实验室的主任,曾计算过煤和油的使用量的激增会迅速增加空气中大量的硫酸盐,并促进它们冷却。 从1970年后, CO2和甲烷覆盖了短期效应的气溶胶从而带来的长期效应,导致了温度的上升。(15) An enhanced greenhouse effect may not necessarily be catastrophic. Indeed, it might be good news for some farmers. High concentrations of C0 can have a fertilizing effect on plants, which is why some commercial greenhouses use an artificial indoor atmosphere containing C0 at about three times the level outside.Because plants use photosynthesis to turn C0 into living tissue, more vegetation also might mean more C02 scavenged from the atmosphere, perhaps slowing global warming.(15)增强的温室效应可能不一定是灾难性的。事实上,这对一些农民来说可能是好消息。高浓度C0对植物可以有施肥的效果,这就是为什么有些商业温室使用C0浓度约为室外三倍水平的人工室内空气。由于植物利用光合作用将C0转换为细胞组织,更多的植被也可能意味着更多来自于大气的C0被清除,可能减缓全球变暖。(16) Furthermore, higher temperatures might be most welcome where they are most likely to occur. Since 1900, the greatest warming has been observed between 40degrees and 70 degrees north latitude-including Europe, Russia, and the northern half of the U.S.where much of the worlds industrial greenhouse gas emissions originate. Most of the warming has taken place at night-presumably because increased cloud cover shades the land by day and traps outgoing heat at night. The growing season in the northern U.S. has lengthened by about a week.(16)此外,高温在最可能发生的地方也许会最受欢迎。从1990年开始,在人们北纬4070之间观察最主要的温室变化。包括欧洲、俄罗斯和美国北部半数地区,这些地区是世界上工业温室气体主要的排放地。大多数的温室变化是发生在晚上的,大概是因为在白天增加的阴云遮住了大地并且晚上高温的散发受到了限制。在美国北部植物的增长期被延长了差不多一周左右。(17) Some scientists argue that hasty measures are pointless: Any appreciablealterations in climate, they say, are likely to be gradual enough that we will be able to adapt. And even if all greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, the planet almost certainly would continue to warm for several decades because of the gases long atmospheric lifetime.(17)一些科学家认为,草率的措施是毫无意义的:他们说,任何可预见的气候变化,有可能是渐进的,我们将能够适应。即使所有的温室气体在明天都停止排放,地球几乎肯定会继续温暖几十年,因为气体的长的大气寿命。(18) On the other hand, there is evidence that some kinds of events could changeclimate radically in the span of decades. Perhaps the most feared is an abrupt collapse in the huge Atlantic conveyor belt system that brings warm water north from theequator, keeping Europe several degrees warmer than it would otherwise be.Evaporation of this incoming flow leaves the belt with a higher salt content than the rest of the North Atlantic, which is fed by substantial freshwater runoff fromcontinental watersheds. The belt cools and becomes denser as it approachesGreenland, where it sinks. It then travels far below the surface in a south-moving return flow.(18)从另一方面说,有证据表明一些事件会在数十年的时间内从根本上改变气候。也许人们大多数的担忧是巨大的大西洋“传送带”会发生一种突然的崩溃。这个“传送带”从赤道北部带来了温暖的水,使它比原来的温度高几度。这种流入水的消失会使“传送带”变得比北大西洋其它地区的盐度都高,北大西洋其它的地区存储着大量从陆地流域流入的淡水。 这个“传送带”中的水在接近格陵兰岛时会变得冰冷而且稠密,在那里它下沉了。然后它随着向南流动的回流表层下部远去。(19) But what if human-induced global warming altered the delicate temperature difference between the flows and at the same time caused increased rainfall over the oceans, diluting the salinity of the northward flow? The whole Atlantic conveyor belt could simply shut down, as ocean-sediment evidence suggests it has several times in the past. The effect would be locally disastrous. By one estimate, Ireland would have about the same temperature as present-day Spitsbergen, which is hundreds of miles above the Arctic Circle. Much of northern Europe would be largely uninhabitable.(19)但是人类引起的全球变暖改变了水流之间的微妙的温度差,同时在海洋上引起的降雨量增加,稀释北上水流的盐度又怎样?整个大西洋输送带可以简单地关闭,因为海洋沉积物的证据表明,它在过去发生过好几次。影响会是局部灾难性的。根据一个预测,爱尔兰将会和现在位于北极圈数百英里以上的斯匹次卑尔根有大约相同的温度。欧洲北部的大部分将不适合居住。(20) No one knows for certain whether such things will happen. Beyond that the specific human effect on climate change will remain hauntingly indefinite until our knowledge increases and the models improve.(20)没人确信这些事情是不是真的会发生。除了对气候做出特别的人为影响,这种不确定性将会一直萦绕人们的心头直到我们的知识增加和理论提高。The Greenhouse Effect温室效应(l)The air we breathe keeps us alive in more ways than one. Without our atmosphere, average global temperature would be about minus 18 (minus 0.4) instead of the present 15 (59). All the incoming sunlight, with energy equivalent to about three 100-watt light bulbs per square yard, would strike Earths surface, causing it to emit infrared waves like a giant radiator. That heat would simply travel unimpeded back out into the void.(l)我们呼吸的空气不止从一个方面确保我们活着。没有大气层,全球平均温度大约是零下18(零下0.4),而不是现在的15(59)。所有入射的太阳光,每平方码的能量相当于3个100瓦的灯泡,会撞击地球表面,使它像一个巨大的散热器一样发射出红外波。这种热将简单地传播,无阻碍地返回到虚空中去。(2) Because of the atmosphere, however, only a fraction of that heat makes it directly back into space. The rest is trapped in the lower air layers, which contain a number of gases一water vapor, C0, methane, and othersthat absorb the outgoing infrared radiation. As those gases heat up, some of their warmth radiates back down to the surface. The entire process is called the greenhouse effect, and most of it is caused by the predominant greenhouse gas, water vapor(2)然而,由于大气,只有一小部分的热量,使它直接回到太空。剩下的热量被困在低层大气中,其中含有一些气体水汽,C0,甲烷和其他气体吸收外面的红外辐射。由于这些气体加热,它们的一些温暖辐射回地面。整个过程被称为温室效应,大部分是由主要的温室气体,水蒸气引起的。(3) With increased heating, more water evaporates from oceans, lakes, and soils. Because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, this creates a powerful feedback loop: the hotter it gets, the higher the water vapor content of the air, and thus the greater the greenhouse warming.(3)因为热量增加,更多的水从海洋、湖泊和土壤中蒸发掉。由于一个温暖的大气可以容纳更多的水蒸气,这创造了一个强大的反馈回路:它得到的热量越多,空气中水蒸气含量越高,从而温室变暖越严重。(4) Human beings have little direct control over the volume of water in the atmosphere. But we produce other greenhouse gases that intensify the effect. The IPCC estimates that rising C0 emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels, account for about 60 percent of the warming observed since 1850. Carbon dioxide concentration has been increasing about 0.3 percent higher than it was before the industrial revolution. If current rates continue, it will rise to at least twice pre-industrial levels by about 2060-and by the end of the century could be four times as high. That is particularly worrisome because C0 has a lifetime of more than a hundred years in the atmosphere, compared with eight days for water vapor.(4)人类对大气中的水的体积几乎没有直接的控制权。但我们生产的其他温室气体可以加剧影响。IPCC估计, C0排放上升,大部分来自化石燃料的燃烧,占据了自1850年开始观察的气候变暖的60%。二氧化碳浓度比工业革命之前持续增加了约0.3%。如果目前的速度持续下去,到2060左右至少会上升到工业化前水平的两倍到本世纪末,可能高达四倍。这是特别令人担忧的,因为与水蒸气的八天寿命相比,C0在大气中的寿命超过一百年。(5) Pushing their way through emerging cities like Barakar, India,automobiles carry unwanted cargo一C0 emissions. Since the late 1700s, the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities have increased atmospheric C0 concentrations more than 30 percent. While the amount added to the air by humans, roughly 7 billion metric tons a year, is a tiny fraction of the total held by the atmosphere-750 billion tons-and an even smaller figure compared with that held in the oceansabout 35 trillion tonsit remains a significant amount. The reason: Natural processes are in balance, drawing about as much C0 from the air as they deposit. Human activity, however, only adds C0.(5)通过印度Barakar这样的新兴城市推动它们的方式,利用汽车运载无用的货物C0排放。自18世纪晚期,化石燃料和其他人类活动燃烧使大气C0浓度超过30%。然而人类向空气中每年大约增加70亿吨量的C0,是大气C0总容量的一小部分的750亿吨与海洋中的容量相比是一个更小的数字大约35兆吨它仍然是一个重要的数量。原因是:自然过程是平衡的,空气吸收的C0和它们存储的差不多从。然而人类活动,只是增加C0容量。(6) Much remains to be learned about Earths carbon cycle and the roleof the oceans as a sink for CO2. Despite such uncertainties, the computerprograms used to model Earths climate are improving rapidly. Current models do well in simulating seasonal variations and climate over thousands of years, leading most scientists to take their overall projections seriously.(6)地球的碳循环和海洋汇集CO2作用还有许多有待了解。不管有这些不确定性,用于模拟地球气候的计算机程序正在迅速改善。目前的模型很好地模拟了几千年的季节性变化和气候,导致大多数科学家认真地接受他们的全部预测。(7) Methane, the principal ingredient of natural gas, has caused an estimated 15 percent of the warming in modem times. Generated by bacteria in rice fields, decomposing garbage, cattle ranching, and fossil fuel production, methane persists in the atmosphere for nearly a decade and is now about 2.5 times as prevalent as it was in the 18th century. Other major greenhouse gases include nitrous oxide-produced by both agriculture and industry-and various solvents and refrigerants likechlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are now banned by international treaty because of their damaging effect on Earths protective ozone layer.(7)甲烷是天然气的主要成分,在现代已造成约15%的气候变暖。在稻田细菌,分解垃圾,养牛,和化石燃料生产的过程中产生,甲烷在大气中持续了将近十年,现在是在第十八世纪普遍存在的2.5倍。其他主要的温室气体包括NO在农业和工业中产生各种溶剂和制冷剂如氯氟烃,或者CFCs,现在已经被国际条约禁止,因为它们会破坏保护地球的臭氧层。(8) The relentless accumulation of greenhouse gases has led the IPCC to project that in the next hundred years global average temperatures will rise by 1 to 3.5 degrees C. That may not seem like much. Yet the little ice age, an anomalous cold snap that peaked from 1570 to 1730 and forced European farmers to abandon their fields, was caused by a change of only half a degree C.(8)温室气体的不断积累,令IPCC预测在下一个百年全球平均气温将上升1到3.5。看起来可能不太多。然而,“小冰河时代”,一个异常寒冷的瞬间,使最高温度从1570变为1730,并迫使欧洲农民放弃他们的田地,只是由一个半度的变化引起的。(9) But how credible are current projections? The computer models used to project greenhouse effects far into the future are still being improvedto accommodate a rapidly growing font of knowledge. And it is remarkably difficult to detect a definitive signature of human activity in the worlds widely fluctuating climate record.(9)但目前的预测有多可信?用于预测遥远将来温室效应的计算机模型仍在改进,以适应快速增长的知识。而且世界上广泛波动的气候记录很难检测到一个明确的人类活动的“签名”。Toyotas Story in Europe丰田汽车在欧洲(1) Its Monday afternoon inside Toyota Motor Corp.s Valenciennes plant northern France, where workers turn and bend over the assembly line to meet demanding hourly production target. Red neon numbers mounted high above the river of moving cars blink steadily, comparing the rate of completed autos with the companys goal. Demand for the Yairs subcompacts this pristine plant cranks out is outstripping the 920-per-day output. So Valenciennes has hired 500 more workers and this month is adding a third shift foR round-the-clock productiona first in Toyota manufacturing history. “We produce a car every minute. Thats the maximum. The solution is to try three shifts,” says Didier Leory, seniorvice-president of Toyota MotoR Manufacturing, France.”(1)一个周一的下午,丰田汽车制造公司旗下位于法国北部的瓦朗西安工厂内,工人们为达到每小时的生产目标,熟练且有条不紊的在装配线上忙碌着。在汽车生产流水线上方,红色霓虹灯数字持续地闪烁着,表示与公司目标对比下的汽车生产率稳步增长。对于这个新工厂迅速出产的丰田威姿微型汽车,公司要求日产量超过920辆。因此,瓦朗西安工厂雇佣了500多个工人,并且这个月实行三轮班制度不分昼夜地生产,这在丰田汽车制造史上尚属首次。法国丰田制造公司的高级副总裁Didier Leroy说“我们每一分钟就能生产出一辆汽车,这已经是最大限度了,相应的解决方案就是尝试三轮班制度。”(2)Toyota, a marginal player in Europe, is becoming a fearsome market force as it applies itself to winning a bigger share of the Old Worlds roadways. Sales in Europe rose 20.6% in the first four months of this year, following a 10.4 % leap in 2003, to 835,000 cars. Those gains, fueled partly by the redesigned Yaris, pushed Toyotas market share in Western Europe to 5.3% in April, up from 4.5% a year ago, overtaking Mercedes and Audi and ending close to Italys Fiat. “Every point Toyota gains is hurting th

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