旅游经济学3ppt课件

.,Chapter3,TheEconomicsofTourismDemand,.,总需求,Economistsaremostlyinterestedinaggregatedemand,whichcanbedefinedasthequantitiesofproductsthatbuyerscollectivelyarewillingandabletobuyatanypotentialpriceoversomespecifiedperiodoftime.,1.Tourismdemand,.,旅游需求的概念,指具有一定支付能力和余暇时间的人，为了满足对旅游活动的欲望，在一定时间和价格条件下，愿意按照一定价格而购买的旅游产品的数量。,.,2.typesofvariablesinfluencingandconstrainingtourismdemand,.,2.1thefactorsinfluencingindividualdemand,(1)personaldisposableincomelevels(2)leisuretime/timeentitlement(3)individualtendency,.,2.2thefactorsinfluencingmarketdemand,(1)generatingareasfactors客源地因素人口的数量和素质人口构成城市化水平政府的政治控制和消费限制(2)destinationsfactors目的地因素1)旅游供给因素2)目的地国的通货膨胀情况与消费品物价指数的变化3)税收政策4）供应商的竞争(3)linkfactors双方相关因素客源地和目的地之间的相关阻力货币汇率促销力度,.,3.levelsofchoiceintravelandtourismdemand,Inconsideringthedemandforasimplegood,economistsfrequentlyassumethatIndividualconsumershavetomakeonlytwodecisions.(1)whetherornottopurchasethatgenerictypeofgood是否要购买某一类产品;(2)whichparticulargoodtochoosefromtherange(ofsubstitutes)available在各种替代产品之间选择购买某一种产品,.,Themainchoices,whichwillbeexaminedhere,are:,(1)theoveralltypeoftourismrequiredformanycases,thisisanochoicesituation,asforexampleabusinesssalestrip,pilgrimage,sportseventattendanceorinvitationtoafamilywedding.Inothercasestheremaybechoicessuchasabeachortouringvacation,wintercruiseorwinterskiing,takingapost-conventiontourorvisitingwithfriends.(2)destination;(3)travelmode；(4)accommodationandattractionvisiting(5)purchasingmethod,.,4.旅游需求的层次分解及意义4.1旅游需求的层次分解,旅游需求,已实现旅游需求未实现旅游需求,强制替代旅游需求符合意愿旅游需求,现实旅游需求潜在旅游需求,.,4.2旅游需求层次分解的意义,所谓旅游需求的有效化，是要尽可能减少潜在旅游需求在旅游需求转化过程中的比例，并使潜在旅游需求尽快地转化为旅游经济，甚至国民经济的现实推动力量促进旅游需求有效转化的措施：（1）增加可用于旅游的余暇时间（2）增强旅游支付能力（3）着力于国内与出境旅游需求的有效化（4）继续重视国际入境旅游,.,5.therulesoftourismdemand,(1)旅游需求量与旅游产品的价格成反向变化（2）旅游需求量与人们收入成同方向变化（3）旅游需求量与人们的闲暇时间成同方向变化,.,.,6.旅游需求模型6.1旅游者效用最大化模型,Daf(Pa;P1,P2,Pn;I;T)Da旅游需求；Pa旅游价格；P1,P2,Pn其他商品或服务的价格；I可自由支配收入；T闲暇时间；f函数关系,.,旅游者效用最大化的函数可以通过两个模型来表示：（1）旅游者在各个旅游产品的组成部分之间进行一定的技术选择和组合后以求得效用最大化；（2）旅游者作为更一般意义上的消费者将时间和收入在旅游产品和其他产品之间进行资源配置以求得效用最大。,.,模型一：,MaxUiUi(Z)约束条件：(1)消费技术约束Zg(X)(2)收入约束PXY(3)时间约束TXV(4)X0;Z0i单个旅游者或可确认的市场细分；Z旅游产品的一系列特征向量；X总体旅游产品的各个组成部分（如住宿、交通等）的数量；P组成部分的价格；T每个组成部分需要的时间；Y可自由支配收入或可用于旅游的预算；V可用于旅游的闲暇时间的预算。,.,模型二,MaxUf(x1,x2,xn,TT)约束条件：（1）tTTS(2)PTTTMx1,x2,xn旅游产品以外的其他产品或服务；TT旅游产品；PT单位旅游价格；t单位旅游产品所需要的消费时间；M可自由支配收入；S闲暇时间。,.,6.2无差异曲线,无差异曲线是一条表示线上所有各点两种物品不同数量组合给消费者带来的满足程度相同的线。是用来表示消费者偏好相同的两种商品的所有组合。,.,(1)无差异曲线的特点,第一，在同一平面上就可以有无数条无差异曲线，形成无差异曲线群。第二，在同一平面图上，任意两条无差异曲线决不能相交。第三，无差异曲线是一条从左上方向右下方倾斜的曲线，其斜率为负值。第四，一般情况下无差异曲线是凸向原点的。,.,(2)无差异曲线在旅游消费行为中的运用,.,.,.,7.旅游需求的衡量指标(1)旅游者人数指标旅游者人数指旅游目的地国家或地区在一定时期内所接待的旅游者总人数。旅游人次指一定时期内旅游者到某一旅游目的地国或地区旅游的人次总数。即旅游人数与平均旅游次数的乘积。,.,(2)旅游消费指标旅游者消费总额：指一定时期内来访旅游者在旅游目的地国或地区因购买其所需的各种商品和服务而支付的开支总额。旅游者人均消费额：指一定时期内旅游者消费总额与旅游人次之比。旅游消费率：指一定时期内一个国家或地区的出国旅游消费总额与该国或该地区的个人消费总额（居民消费总额或国民收入）的比值。,.,(3)旅游者停留天数指标旅游者停留天数或旅游人天数：是指一定时期内旅游人次与人均停留（过夜）天数之积。旅游者人均停留天数：是指一定时期内旅游人天数与旅游人次数之比。,.,(4)其他旅游指标旅游出游率又称旅游密度，是指一定时期内一个国家或该地区的居民外出旅游的人数或人次与其总人口的比率。旅游重游率又称旅游频度，是指一定时期内一个国家或地区的出国旅游人次与出国旅游人数之比。,.,8.旅游需求弹性和需求弹性系数,旅游需求收入弹性incomeelasticityofdemand,ED1旅游需求收入弹性系数,即课本中的Ey；Q0，Q1为变化前后的旅游需求量；I0，I1为变化前后的可支配收入量,弧弹性,点弹性,.,8.旅游需求弹性和需求弹性系数,旅游需求价格弹性priceelasticityofdemand,设：EDp旅游需求价格弹性系数,即Ep；P0，P1变化前后的旅游产品价格；Q0，Q1变化前后的旅游需求量。点弹性：,弧弹性：,.,旅游需求的交叉价格弹性,为变化前后y旅游产品的价格,为变化前后x旅游产品的需求量,为旅游需求交叉价格弹性系数,.,TheremaybecasesintourismofproductsexhibitingtheVebleneffect.ThisisanabnormalpriceelasticityofdemandwheretheEpvaluemaybepositiveoveracertainrangeofpricesforaproduct.Thatis,demandmayactuallyincreaseatahigherprice.Thiseffectisoftenassociatedwithostentatiousproducts-perceivedtobeofhighvalueinadiscerningmarketwithlittleinthewayofbudgetconstraint.,.,Itisarguedthatwealthyartcollectorswouldnotdemandacheapmasterpiece,becauseitmaynotbeamasterpieceatall,andbecauseonlyanexpensiveworkofartmayprovidetheprestigecachetwhichispartoftheutilityinsuchapurchase.,.,Inthesameway,someconsumersmayneedtodemonstratewealthandprestigethroughademandforluxurytourismproductssuchasthehighestpricedstateroomsonexpensivecruiseships,orthemostexpensiverestaurantinwhichtoentertainclientsonsalestrips.,.,Generally,timeentitlementsareincreasingworldwideaspartofindustrialisationandautomationsreplacementoflabourwithcapital,andwithsocialpushesformoreformalleisuretime.However,aswithincome,thereareglobalvariations.InsomeEuropeancountries(forexample,WestGermanyandItaly)standardvacationleavemayexceed28daysleaveayear,inadditiontotwelveorfourteenpublicholiday,butinJapan10daysleaveisnormal.,.,Wheretime,andnotmoney,istheeffectiveconstraintontourismdemand,anyincreaseinentitlementshasaveryhighpositivetimeelasticityofdemand.Twoparticularcasesarenotable：,.,extratimeallowstripstotemporallymoreremotedestinations,andtouristsarethereforelikelytosubstituteremotedestinationsforcloserones;extratimeoftenencouragelongerstaysindestinations,thusincreasingspendingatthedestination.,.,政府的政治控制,Themarketsformanyproductsareundervariouslevelsofpoliticalcontrolindifferentcountries.Controlsincludethoseondrugs,firearms,alcohol,entertainment,housingandsoon.Controlontourismmaybelessovert,butmanystillbethere.Manycountriesofcourserestrictorprohibittheinternationaltouristmovementoftheirnationals,andelsewheretheremaybeselectivecontrolthroughpassportandvisasystems,sometimesevenfordomestictourism.Thisisinadditiontogovernmentinterventionintheeconomicmarketplacethroughpriceorfareregulationandtravelandtourismtaxes.Thesedirectcontrolsmayconstraintourismfromthegenerator,atthedestination,orthroughthelink.,.,Amongthesefactors,negativecharacteristicsoftourismproductsbadlyinfluencetourismdemand:somecharacteristicsoftourismproductsmaybepositivemotivatorstotheirpurchase,whilsttheabsenceofothersmaydiscouragedemand.,.,Theexistenceofasewagetreatmentworksoradequateparkingfacilitiesatadestinationisunlikelyinitselftocreatedemandmotivation,butifthesehygienefactorsornegativecharacteristicsarelacking,thenconsumersmaysoonwithdrawdemand.,.,Aprimeexampleofnegativecharacteristicsisanairlinessafetyrecord;fewtouristsadmittoselectinganairlinespecificallyonitssafetyrecordcharacteristic,butdemandforanairlineoftenfallsinthewakeofdemonstratedpoorsafety.Characteristicssuchasincidenceofterrorism,politicalstabilityandreliabilityofessentialserviceshaveaprofoundeffectontourismtoday.,.,Thelodgingproductincludesalargebundleoftangibleandservicecharacteristics,whichoften,evenmorethanintransport,canbeadjustedtomeettheneedsofspecificconsumers.Suchelementsasmealarrangements,viewsfromloungingareas,andthenumberofpeoplesharingmaybeflexibleinnegotiationwithsuppliers.Inthiscasetheremainingfixedcharacteristics(suchaslocation)andpricebecomethemajorvariablesaffectingdemand.,.,Sinceacco