优秀毕业论文 我国粮食产量预测的时间序列模型研究

学位论文我国粮食产量预测的时间序列模型研究论文作者姓名XXXX申请学位专业信息与计算科学申请学位类别理学学士指导教师姓名（职称）（副教授）论文提交日期2011年06月5日我国粮食产量预测的时间序列模型研究摘要粮食是关系国民生计的重要战略物资，为做好粮食预测，本文介绍了时间序列的几种建模方法。通过分析19782009年我国粮食生产总量数据特点，建立了单积自回归移动平均模型ARIMAP，D，Q。最终，利用EVIEWS60软件计算完成了我国粮食产量的预测。结果表明，在未来几年我国粮食产量在不受自然灾害影响的前提下，依然会进行缓慢增长。经分析，重大自然灾害对我国粮食产量影响严重，确保粮食产量要做好重大自然灾害预防。G3关键字粮食产量G727时间序列G727G3ARIMAG3G727预测G3RESEARCHFORFORECASTINGOFCHINASGRAINYIELDBASEDONTIMESERIESMODELABSTRACTGRAINISANIMPORTANTLIVELIHOODSTRATEGYFORTHENATIONALRELATIONSHIPBETWEENMATERIALFORECASTFORTHEGRAIN,THISTHESISINTRODUCESSEVERALMODELINGMETHODSOFTIMESERIALSMETHODANDESTABLISHESAUTOREGRESSIVEMOVINGAVERAGEMODELARIMAP,D,QBYANALYZINGCHARACTERISTICSOFCHINASGRAINYIELDFROM1978TO2009FINALLY,FORECASTINGOFCHINASGRAINYIELDISFINISHEDBYMEANSOFEVIEWS60ANDTHERESULTSHOWSTHATCHINASGRAINYIELDWILLSTILLGROWSLOWLYINTHENEXTFEWYEARSIFNOTBEINGAFFECTEDBYNATURALDISASTERSKEYWORDSGRAINYIELDTIMESERIALSARIMAFORECASTING目录G3G16782文总G20041数G72616G20041G31A1A05A3A2A3A5A4A6A75A3A2A8A10A9A11A12A13A14A155A3A2A16A18A5A4A12A13A17A19A206A3A2A21A18A5A4A17A12A13A22A2362A25A24A26A27A28A29A30A31A32A33A34A35A366A37A38A39A40A41A42A43ARA44A45A466A37A38A37A47A48A49A50A43MAA44A45A467A37A38A51A40A41A42A47A48A49A50A43ARMAA44A45A467A37A38A52A53A32A40A41A42A54A48A49A50A43ARIMAA44A45A468A37A38A52A38A39ARIMAA45A46A55A568A37A38A52A38A37ARIMAA45A46A30A31A57A58A59A60A2883A61A62A32A33A63A45A46A64A658A51A38A39A61A62A32A338A51A38A37A61A62A49A66A6710A51A38A51A45A46A57A68A6912A51A38A52A45A46A70A6713A51A38A71A45A46A72A7314A51A38A74A45A46A75A76A77A72A7315A51A38A78A45A46A30A3115A79A8016A81A82A83A8416A85A8616A87A8818A89A9019G3G3G3G3G3A915A92A9316A921引言11课题背景G256国G1209民为本G15民G1209食为G3837。G257粮食是关系国计民生的重要战略物资，粮食G4445G1852G994G12050会的G2656G16868G451G6931G8847的G12295G4462G451经G8994的G6357G13505G2469G4649G5699G5699G11468关。我国是G2469G4649G1025的G1904G1006大国，G13801G3332G1177G2356G1002G1104010G705，G13792G1166G2487G2376G2356G1002G11040的22G705，G2325几G1171G1166的粮食G19394G20076G3999终是G3848G12573大G1119。G2164G1849G58G55G50G1209G2530，我国的粮食G4445G1852G19394G20076受G2052了国G1881G3818的G5203G8879关G8892。我国粮食产量受G3822种G3252G13044影响，G8821G7389G16280G5471G2499G5502。G312国内外研究现状我国G4410G13785对粮食产量的预测模型总G1319G990来G16840大G14280G2499G1209分为G989大G12879G29时间序列模型G451回归模型G2656G1166G5049G12082经G13605G13488模型。G6363数平G9381模型G451G9796G14406预测模型G2462G3534G1122G20544G4584G2499G3839G19154的预测模型G12573G18129G4658G1122时间序列模型。回归模型G1025G1363用G8616G17751G3822的G4613是G13459G5627回归模型G2656G2464对数模型。G1166G5049G12082经G13605G13488模型是G17829几年G6177G5332G3999G1363用的G3534G1122生物G4410G2419G10714的预测系G13491。G17837G1135方法的G1260G13582点分析G3926下G29G3G20330G1820G15G6363数平G9381模型的G2419G10714G2656计算方法G8616G17751G12628单G15对G2394G2502数据的数量G8821G7389G3838大的要G8726。G17843G9801G14449200G23G7378运用单G6363数平G9381方法G20330G1820对我国19911999年的粮食产量进行拟合G15计算出平均G11468对误差为010G23G15效果还是G8616G17751G10714想的。但是模型G1025对平G9381系数的确G4462直接关系G2052模型的精度G19394G20076G15所G1209不同的平G9381系数G4613G2499能造成结果的差异。林绍森G125732007对G989种预测模型的分析的结果证明了G6363数平G9381法的预测误差最大。此G3818G15由G1122模型本身在计算方法G990的局限G5627G15该方法只适用G1122G17829G451短期预测。G3G9796G14406预测模型也是G8616G17751常用的粮食产量预测模型。G17843G9801G144492002对G9796G14406预测方法G2656回归模型进行G8616G17751分析G15得出G9796G14406预测的平均G11468对误差最小的结G16782。林绍森G125732007对单G6363数平G9381G451自回归移动平均G2656G9796G14406预测G989种模型进行了G8616G17751G15他G6363出G9796G14406预测模型G8616自回归预测模型G2656单G6363数平G9381预测模型更适合长期的预测。G3G13459G5627或非G13459G5627回归模型的一个G1260点是G2499对变量之间进行G3252果分析G15描述其G1881在的联系。很G3822G4410G13785利用G17837一方法建立了粮食产量模型G15找G2052了影响粮食产量的主要G3252G13044。G3926李子奈G32000的G13459G5627回归函数G451石森昌G125732003的G2464对数生产函数G451李云松G125732002G3G451肖海峰G12573200G23G3G451程杰G125732007的柯布道格拉斯生产函数G12573G12573。虽然他们选取的变量G18129不尽G11468同G15但是G18129证明了回归模型对粮食产量的拟合效果很好。但是回归方法受G2052解释变量的约束G15一般也只用在G17829G451短期预测G1025。G12082经G13605G13488模型是一种建立在生物G4410G12082经元G3534础G990的一个不需要建立解释变量G994被解释变量之间具G1319关系的数G4410模型。它G2499G1209通过隐含层的G4410习G2656训练实A946A95A9616A95现输G1849元G13044G994输出元G13044之间的非G13459G5627映射。该模型的模拟效果G2499G1209在王启平2002G451禹建丽G12573G3200G23的文章G1025看G2052。但是目前我国尚无G8616G17751完善G2656成熟的G10714G16782G6363导G13605G13488模型G15在G12082经G13605G13488的程序设计G1025对隐含层单元数G2462目标参数的设置G18129只能凭经验或G13785是经过反复的训练G2656测试G6177能确G4462。G3总之G15每个模型G18129G7389其G1260点G2656不足之处。对G1122数据G8616G17751少的短期预测G19394G20076G15应用G12628单的G6363数进行平G9381。对G1122结构复G7446G451影响G3252G13044G1259G3822的G1025长期G19394G20076一般用G9796G14406预测模型。回归模型一般用来做G3252G13044分析G15G13792G1000预测期G17751短1。G313本课题研究的意义G7693据G1904G1006G18108G2469布的数据G15G31998年我国粮食产量G7378经G17810G2052G2394G2502最G20652G8712平G15此G2530几年G17842G13505G3822年G2588现下G9381G5589G2195G15G6357G13505G12295产增产G3534本G8821G7389G17241过3年。自200G23年G5332G3999，G1025国G17842G13505G3247年粮食增产G15G32007年粮食产量G12373G11784了G24G1171G2556。但是粮食生产是由G16844G3822G3252G13044G13520合影响的不确G4462系G13491G15未来我国粮食产量G4570G3926G1321变动G15能G2554G17810G2052国G4490粮食G4445G1852的目标G4613成为一个很G7389G5859G1053的G16817G20076。G7389效G3332分析G2656预测我国粮食生产能G2159G15对G6931G12586G16855G6984方G2533G1047G14279保G19568粮食G4445G1852具G7389非常重要的G1227G1552。G314本课题的研究方法对G1122大G3822数时间数列是非平G12295的，G3926果直接G4570非平G12295时间序列G5415做平G12295时间序列来进行回归分析，G2029G2499能造成G256G1278回归G257，G2375变量间本来不G4396在G11468依关系，但回归结果G2376得出G4396在G11468依关系的G19181误结G16782。本文G20330G1820G7693据时间序列的G6967点G3282G451自G11468关函数G2656G1571自G11468关函数G3282G16794G2047其平G12295G5627。然G2530对非平G12295的时间序列数据进行平G12295G2282处G10714，G4570其G16282为一个G19555G7438序列，分析此序列的特G5461G5194G7693据所G16794G2047出来的特G5461建立G11468应的时间序列模型。G2040G7041该模型G8543差序列是G2554为G11345G3134G3780序列。通过G7828验G2530，利用此模型对粮食产量进行预测。G32几种时间序列预测分析法简介21自回归（AR）模型G3926果时间序列TY是它的前期G1552G2656G19555G7438G20045的G13459G5627函数，G2375G2499表G12046为G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3TPTPTTTEYYYYK2211G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7081G709G3G2029G12228该时间序列TY是自回归序列，G7081G709G5347为自回归模型，G16772为ARG708PG709。实参数P,11LG12228为自回归系数，是模型的G5465G1284参数。G19555G7438G20045TE是G11468G1126G10432立的G11345G3134G3780序列，G1000G7393G1186均G1552为0G451方差为2E的G8503G5589分布。G19555G7438G20045TEG994G9394G2530变量PTTTYYY,21不G11468关。不是一般G5627，在G7081G709G1025G1563G4462序列TY均G1552为0。G145210UEYT，G2029G1208UYYTT，G2499G4570TYG1901成1G5347的G5430G5347。G16772KB为G78G8505G9394G2530算子，G2375KTTYBY，G2029模型G7081G709G2499表G12046为G3A977A98A9916A98TTTTTEYBYBBYY33221KG3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7082G709G3G1208PPBBBBK2211G3G3G3模型G2499G12628G1901为G726G3TTEYBG3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7083G709G3ARG708PG709过程平G12295的G7477件是G9394G2530G3822G20045G5347B的G7693均在单G1313G3290G3818，G23750B的G7693大G11221。G322移动平均（MA）模型G3926果时间序列G708是它的G5415前G2656前期的G19555G7438误差G20045的G13459G5627函数，G2375G2499表G12046为G3QTQTTTTEEEEYK2211G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G708G23G709G3G2029G12228该时间序列TY是移动平均序列，G7082G709G5347为QG19466移动平均模型，G16772为MAQ模型。实参数Q,11K为移动平均系数，是模型的G5465G1284系数。G5353G1849G9394G2530算子，G5194G1208QQBBBBK2211G3G2029模型G708G23G709G2499G12628G1901为G3TTEBYG3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G708G24G709G3移动平均过程无G7477件平G12295。但G5088G7407AR过程G994MA过程能G11468G1126表出，G2375过程G2499G17882。G3252此要G8726G9394G2530G3822G20045G5347B的G7693G18129在单G1313G3290G3818，经G6524导G2499得G3TTJJJTEYBYBB02211DKDDG3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7086G709G3其G1025，001,1BPI，其他G7447重JPIG2499G17894G6524得G2052。G12228G7086G709为MAG708QG709模型的G17882G17728G5430G5347，它G12573G1227G994无G12363G19466的AR过程。G323自回归移动平均（ARMA）模型G3926果时间序列TY是它的G5415期G2656前期的G19555G7438误差G20045G1209G2462前期G1552的G13459G5627函数，G2375G2499表G12046为G726G3QTQTTTTPTTTEEEEYYYYKK221121G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7087G709G3G2029G12228该时间序列G708是自回归平均序列，G7087G709G5347为G708P，QG709G19466的自回归移动平均模型，G16772为ARMAG708P，QG709。P,11L为自回归系数，Q,11K为移动平均系数，G18129是模型的G5465G1284参数。G3G5353G1849G9394G2530算子G37，模型G7087G709G2499G12628G16772为G3TTEBYBG3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G3G7088G709G3ARMAP，Q过程的平G12295G7477件是G9394G2530G3822G20045G5347B的G7693均在单G1313G3290G3818。G2499G17882G7477件是B的G7693G18129在单G1313G3290G3818。G3G145210B，G2029G12228G9397足方程TPTPTTTEYYYYK2211的平G12295G19555G7438序列TY为PG19466自回归模型，G16772为ARP模型。G3G145210B，G2029G12228G9397足方程QTQTTTTEEEEYK2211的平G12295G19555G7438序A1008A101A10216A101列TY为QG19466移动平均模型，G16772为MAQ模型。G3G7186然，ARP模型G2656MAQ模型G18129是ARMAPG15Q模型的特G1375。G324差分自回归滑动平均（ARIMA）模型2241ARIMA模型原理差分自回归G9381动平均模型ARIMAG708P，D，QG709G1025，AR是“自回归“，P为自回归G20045数G727MA为“G9381动平均“，Q为G9381动平均G20045数，D为G1363之成为平G12295序列所做的差分G8437数G708G19466数G709。ARIMAG708P，D，QG709模型是ARMAG708P，QG709模型的G6205G4649。ARIMAG708P，D，QG709模型G2499G1209表G12046为G726TQIITDIPIIXLL11111G7089G709其G1025LG3是G9394G2530算子G708G47G68G74G3G82PEG85G68G87G82G85G7090,DZD。G3242ARIMA模型预测的基本程序G708一G709G7693据时间序列的G6967点G3282G451自G11468关函数G2656G1571自G11468关函数G3282G1209ADF单G1313G7693G7828验其方差G451G17247G2195G2462其G4407G14422G5627变G2282G16280G5471，对序列的平G12295G5627进行G16794G2047。一般来G16774，经G8994运行的时间序列G18129不是平G12295序列。G3G3G708G1120G709对非平G12295序列进行平G12295G2282处G10714。G3926果数据序列是非平G12295的，G5194G4396在一G4462的增长或下G19489G17247G2195，G2029需要对数据进行差分处G10714，G3926果数据G4396在异方差，G2029需对数据进行G6228G7427处G10714，直G2052处G10714G2530的数据的自G11468关函数G1552G2656G1571G11468关函数G1552无G7186G14891G3332异G1122G19658。G3G3G708G989G709G7693据时间序列模型的G16794G2047G16280G2029，建立G11468应的模型。G14521平G12295序列的G1571G11468关函数是G6142G4626的，G13792自G11468关函数是G6314G4626的，G2499G7041G4462序列适合AR模型G727G14521平G12295序列的G1571G11468关函数是G6314G4626的，G13792自G11468关函数是G6142G4626的，G2029G2499G7041G4462序列适合MA模型G727G14521平G12295序列的G1571G11468关函数G2656自G11468关函数均是G6314G4626的，G2029序列适合ARMA模型。G3G3G708G3247G709进行参数G1284计，G7828验是G2554具G7389G13491计G5859G1053。G3G3G708G1128G709进行G1563设G7828验，G16798G7041G8543差序列是G2554为G11345G3134G3780。A103A104A105A106A107A108A109A110A111A112A113A114A115A116A117预测分析A1181数据分析及模型建立11数据分析19782009年我国粮食产量G708单G1313G726G987G2556G709G3926下表1G726A119A120A121A122A120A123A124A125A126A127A128A128A123A129A130A131A132A133A134A135A136A137A138A139A134A135A136A137A138A139A1409A141A14216A141A143A144A145A146A147A148A149A145A150A151A152A143A144A144A148A148A148A152A143A149A151A143A143A144A145A144A147A147A153A143A143A151A152A143A144A144A152A148A150A150A150A143A151A146A143A144A146A149A147A153A149A152A152A151A152A143A144A144A150A152A149A148A152A147A151A152A143A144A146A143A147A153A152A149A153A143A144A144A145A148A144A148A143A145A151A143A143A144A146A153A147A152A148A152A149A143A144A144A146A152A143A153A153A144A151A152A143A144A146A147A147A146A145A153A145A151A152A143A144A144A144A152A149A146A147A146A151A150A143A144A146A148A148A149A145A147A149A151A152A153A149A149A149A148A150A153A143A145A151A152A143A144A146A152A147A145A144A143A149A151A146A153A149A149A143A148A152A153A150A147A151A145A143A144A146A150A147A144A143A152A143A151A153A153A149A149A153A148A152A145A149A152A151A146A143A144A146A145A148A149A148A145A147A151A147A153A149A149A147A148A147A149A150A144A151A152A143A144A146A146A147A144A148A149A146A153A149A149A148A148A150A144A148A150A151A144A143A144A146A144A148A149A145A152A148A151A144A153A149A149A152A148A146A148A149A153A151A153A143A144A144A149A148A148A150A153A148A151A147A153A149A149A150A148A144A146A149A148A151A153A143A144A144A143A148A147A152A153A144A151A147A153A149A149A145A152A149A143A150A149A151A147A143A144A144A153A148A148A153A150A152A151A146A153A149A149A146A152A153A146A145A149A151A144A143A144A144A147A148A152A150A148A146A151A146A153A149A149A144A152A147A149A146A153G8892G726数据来G9316G1122G1025国G13491计局G13605HTTP/WWWSTATSGOVCN。建立时间序列模型之前需要G7828验序列的平G12295G5627，只G7389平G12295序列G6177能建立时间序列模型。利用EG57IEG58G54数据分析软件对时间序列进行ADFG7828验3，G1209G2040G7041其平G12295G5627，G5415G7828验G1552G708AUG74MENG87EDG3DICG78EYFULLEG85G3G87ESG87G3SG87G68G87ISG87ICG709的绝对G1552大G1122临G11040G1552的绝对G1552时，序列为平G12295序列G727G2554G2029，为非平G12295数据。利用EG57IEG58G5460软件作出我国G2394年粮食产量的曲G13459G3282，见G32821G726G3A15410A155A15616A155A157A158A159A160A161A162A163A164A165A166A157G1186曲G13459G3282G1025明G7186G2499G1209看G2052粮食产量总G1319G2588G990升G17247G2195，在19982003年出现了明G7186下G19489，直观表现为非平G12295序列。利用EVIEWS60对其进行单G1313G7693G7828验，G7828验结果为G32822G726G3A1572A161A162A163A164A167A168A169A170A171A172A173A174A175由G3282G1025G7828验结果G2499G1209看出FG50G50D时间序列单G1313G7693为0972G2483大G112210G8712平下临G11040G1552，故该序列G4396在单G1313G7693，为非平G12295时间序列。G312数据平稳化用EVIEWSG4570粮食产量时间序列做一G19466差分G5194对其进行单G1313G7693G7828验，结果分G2047A17611A177A17816A177见G32823G2656G3282G23G726G3A179A180A181A182A183A184A185A186A187A188A189A190A179A179A191A183A184A185A186A187A188A189A190A192A193A194A195A196A197A198A179通过看G3282，粮食产量一G19466差分G2530得G2052的序列在某一常数附G17829波动，G2499初G8505G16794G2047序列已平G12295。G5194G1000ADF的G7828验G1552为G2387966G24，分G2047小G1122不同G7828验G8712平的G989个临G11040G1552，G3252此它通过了ADFG7828验，为一平G12295序列。在G17837里应该G8892G5859的是要防止过度差分。一般来G16840平G12295序列差分得G2052的仍然是平G12295序列，但G5415差分G8437数过G3822时G4396在两个G13582点，G7081G709序列的样本容量减小G727G7082G709方差变大G727所G1209建模过程G1025要防止差分过度。对G1122一个序列，差分G2530G14521数据的极差变大，G16840明差分过度。此处，我A19912A200A20116A200们认为一G19466差分已G2499G1209消除序列的非平G12295G5627。G3252此在ARIMAPG15DG15Q模型G1025D1。G313模型的定阶ARIMA模型的G4462G19466方法主要G7389G3926下G989种G726自G11468关G2656G1571G11468关函数G4462G19466法G727FPG54准G2029G727AICG2656G54C准G20294。G3所谓自G11468关G726构成时间序列的每个序列G1552之间的G12628单G11468关关系G12228为自G11468关。自G11468关程度由自G11468关系数KR度量，表G12046时间序列G11468隔G78期的观测G1552之间的G11468关程度。G3211NIIKNIIKYYYYR其G1025，N是样本量G727K为G9394G2530期G727Y代表样本数据的算G7427平均G1552。所谓G1571自G11468关G726对G1122时间序列TY，在给的121,KTTTYYYK的G7477件下，TYG994KTY之间G7477件G11468关关系。其G11468关程度用G1571自G11468关系数KK度量，G738911KK，K,3,21111111,11KRRRKRKJJKKJJKJKKKK其G1025KR是G9394G2530K期的自G11468关系数，1,1,1,JKKKJKJK1,2,1KJK。G20330G1820我们通过考察平G12295时间序列的自G11468关G2656G1571G11468关的函数G5627质来进行G4462G19466，利用EVIEWS60作出粮食产量一G19466差分序列DFG50G50D的自G11468关G1571G11468关G3282，结果见G3282G24G726G3A20213A203A20416A203A205A206A207A208A209A210A211A212A213A214A215A216A217A218A219A216A217A205G1186G3282G1025G2499G1209看出平G12295序列DFG50G50D的自G11468关系数AC在KG24G2530很快G17247G11220，G2375自G11468关系数在G23G19466结G4626，G3252此QG23G1571G11468关系数PAC在G78G23很快G17247G11220，G2375G1571G11468关系数在G23G19466G6142G4626。G1122是，G1820建立ARMAG23G151G15G23模型，G5194利用EG57IEG58G54软件计算模型参数，具G1319参数G1552见G32826G726G3G3A220A221A222A223A224A225A222A226A227A228A229A228A227A230A231A232A233A234A235A236A237A238A22014模型优化观察参数计算结果，G2469现MA3G15MAG23G20045的系数G8821G7389G7186G14891G5627。为G12628G2282模型，我们再利用AICG2656G54C准G2029，G2375AICG2656ACG1552最小G2419G2029，进行G20045数筛选。最终得G2052AR2G451AR3G2656MA2的系数具G7389G7186G14891G5627。EVIEWS60计算结果G3926G32827G726G3A23914A240A24116A240A2427ARIMA3,1,2A243A244A245A246A247A248A249A250A242我们由此得G2052模型的最终表G17810G5347G72623297041037075710165TTTTTDFOODDFOODDFOOD利用EVIEWS60软件绘制出所得模型的拟合G1552G2656实际G1552G1209G2462G8543差G1552的G8616G17751，其结果见G32828G726G3A2518A252A253A254A255A38A0A254A1A2A3A25115模型检验为确保模型的G2499靠G5627，需要对模型G8543差进行G7828验，看其是G2554为G11345G3134G3780序列。利用EWVIEWS60软件对ARIMA3G1512模型进行QG13491计量G7828验，G7828验结果见G32829G726G3A415A5A616A5A79ARIMA3,1,2A47A8QA48A9A10A11A7模型的G8543差自G11468关G1571G11468关G3282，G8821G7389任G1321模G5347，G8543差序列平G12295，该G8543差序列由一G1135无关的G11468G1126G10432立的G19555G7438变量组成。G16840明此模型拟合成功，G2499G1209进行预测。G316模型有效性检验预测模型G7389效G5627G7828验，G2375是利用未G1363用过的观测G1552评G1227模型的预测能G2159。用G18108分G2394G2502数据对模型进行回归G5194预测，G4570预测结果G994实际G1552G8616G17751，G2499G1209G12628单G13792G7389效G3332G7828验模型的预测效果。G17837里，我们对ARIMA3G151G152模型利用19782009年的数据进行回归，然G2530给出了的预测结果G1209G2462完G6984的G2394G2502数据，由G1209G990模型预测出的20072009年的粮食产量FG50G50DG2656实际粮食产量G1209G2462G11468对误差见下表3G726G3A49A50A12A13A13A14A18A12A13A13A51A55A15A9A16A17A19A20A16A21A22A23A24A8A25A26A27A28A28A29A27A27A28A30A27A28A28A31A32A33A34A35A36A37A39A37A40A35A41A35A37A37A42A43A40A44A35A41A43A41A44A40A41A45A46A52A35A53A36A54A53A40A41A35A37A43A42A53A40A44A35A41A53A43A37A56A57A58A59A37A40A37A60A36A40A36A60A36A40A39A60由表G2499G1209看G2052G11468对误差最G20652为22，均小G1122G24。预测结果G8616G17751准确，能够G3534本拟合实际G1552。G317模型预测利用此模型对20102012年我国粮食产量进行预测，结果G3926表G23G726G3A61A62A63A64A65A64A66A63A64A65A63A67A68A69A70A71A72A73A74A75A76A77A78A79A80A81A82201020112012A83A84A8554047254986915596758A86A87A88178170175A8916A90A9116A90由预测结果G2499G1209看起我国粮食产量在未来几年仍然会G2588增长G17247G2195，但增长率G4570处G1122波动状G5589，G2375我国粮食产量增长G2499能出现放缓。结论时间序列模型一般只能用G1122短期预测，对G1122G1025长期预测G2499能会出现误差累计情况，G3252此本模型只G2499对未来G17829几年的我国粮食产量进行预测。其G8437，观察拟合曲G13459会G2469现在19982000年的拟合效果G17751差，查阅资料G2469现1998年G26562000年自然灾害G8616G17751严重，分G2047遭受了特大洪G8712G2656罕见的G1852国G5627干旱G708建国G1209来干旱最为严重的年份之一G709。本模型无法排除G12373G2469严重自然灾害影响G3252G13044，所G1209本模型的预测结果只G7389在无重大自然灾害的前提下G6177具G7389G1227。在此前提下，本文成功预测了我国粮食产量在未来依然会增长，增长率会在17G24波动，G2499会出现放缓。要保G6357我国粮食产量出现G6357G13505增长，除保G6357科G6228进G8505，更要G2164强自然灾害的预防。G3参考文献A92A93A94A95A96A97A98A99A100A101A98A102A103A104A98A105A106A107A108A109A110A110A111A112A109A110A109A110A113A114A115A116A117A118A119A120A121A92A122A94A108A123A124A125A126A127A128A129A109A110A110A111A113A129A130A131A132A93A133A109A112A93A134A110A135A92A109A94A136A137A138A98A139A140A119A125A126A120A121A141A142A143A144A145A146A92A147A94A108A148A149A150A151A152A153A154A109A110A110A155A113A153A135A92A133A94A156A157A113A98A139A125A126A140A119A151A158A159A112A160A161A162A163A164A165A166A167A168A146A92A147A94A108A169A170A125A126A171A172A152A153A154A109A110A110A155A113A153A135A92A134A94A173A174A98A139A125A126A140A119A151A146A92A147A94A108A175A151A152A153A154A109A110A110A176A113A153A135附录19782009年我国粮食产量数据A177A178A179A180A181A182A177A178A179A180A181A182A183A184A185A186A187A188A189A185A190A191A192A183A184A184A188A188A188A192A183A189A191A183A183A184A185A184A187A187A193A183A183A191A192A183A184A184A192A188A190A190A190A183A191A186A19417A195A19616A195A183A184A186A189A187A193A189A192A192A191A192A183A184A184A190A192A189A188A192A187A191A192A183A184A186A183A187A193A192A189A193A183A184A184A185A188A184A188A183A185A191A183A183A184A186A193A187A192A188A192A189A183A184A184A186A192A183A193A193A184A191A192A183A184A186A187A187A186A185A193A185A191A192A183A184A184A184A192A189A186A187A186A191A190A183A184A186A188A188A189A185A187A189A191A192A193A189A189A189A188A190A193A183A185A191A192A183A184A186A192A187A185A184A183A189A191A186A193A189A189A183A188A192A193A190A187A191A185A183A184A186A190A187A184A183A192A183A191A193A193A189A189A193A188A192A185A189A192A191A186A183A184A186A185A188A189A188A185A187A191A187A193A189A189A187A188A187A189A190A184A191A192A183A184A186A186A187A184A188A189A186A193A189A189A188A188A190A184A188A190A191A184A183A184A186A184A18