布兰查德宏观经济学第四版ppt第02章

2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,2 of 27,Aggregate Output,National income and product accounts are an accounting system used to measure of aggregate economic activity.The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP,which can be measured or thought from the production side (aggregate production) ,or the income side( aggregate income ),andthe results of both ways are always equal in theory .,2-1, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,3 of 27,SNA (System of National Account),联合国SNA体系的五大统计表。, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,4 of 27,GDP: Production and Income,There are three ways of defining GDP:GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period.A final good is a good that is destined for final consumption.An intermediate good is a good used in the production of another good., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,5 of 27,GDP: Production and Income,There are three ways of defining GDP:,GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period.Value added equals the value of a firms production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,6 of 27,GDP: Production and Income,There are three ways of defining GDP:,GDP is the sum of the incomes in the economy during a given period., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,7 of 27,Steel company (firm1) car company (firm 2)Revenues from sales $100 Revenues from sales $210 Expenses $80 Expenses $170 wages $80 wages $70 Steel purchases $100 profit $20 profit $40, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,8 of 27,Table A1-1 U.S GDP:The income side ,2001(billions of dollars),From gross domestic product to Personal disposable income :1. Gross domestic product(GDP) 102082.Plus: receipt of factor income from the rest of the world 3353.Minus: payments of factor income to the rest of the world 3414.Equals: gross national product (GNP) 102025.minus: consumption of fixed capital -13516.Equals: Net national product (NNP) 8851 7. Minus : indirect taxes -794 8.Minus : others,including stastical discrepancy 1609.EqualS: National income (NI) 8217 10.Minus: corporate profits -76711.plus:personal dividend income 41612.Minus: net interst -55413.Plus :personal interest income 99314. plus: government and business transfers 114915.Minus: contributions for social insurance -73116.Equals: personal income 872317.Minus: personal tax and nontax payment -130618.Equals: Personal disposable income 7417, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,9 of 27,Table A1-3 U.S GDP:The product side ,2001(billions of dollars),1.Gross domestic product(GDP) 102082. Personal consumption expenditures 70643.Durable goods 8584.Nondurable goods 20555.Services 41516. Gross private domestic fixed investment 16927.Nonresidential 12468.Structures 3309.Equipment and software 91610.Residential 44611.Government purchases 183912. Federal 61613. National defense 39914.Nondefense 21715.State and local 122316. Net exports -33017.Export 105018.Imports - -138019.Changes in business inventories -58, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,10 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price.Nominal GDP increases over time because:The production of most goods increases over time.The prices of most goods also increase over time.Real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant (rather than current) prices., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,11 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,To construct real GDP, multiply the number of cars in each year by a common price. Suppose we use the price of the car in 2000 as the common price. This approach gives us, in effect, real GDP in 2000 dollars., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,12 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,Nominal GDP is also called dollar GDP or GDP in current dollars.Real GDP is also called GDP in terms of goods, GDP in constant dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, or GDP in 2000 dollars.GDP will refer to real GDP, and Yt will denote real GDP in year t.Nominal GDP will be denoted by a dollar sign in front of it: $Yt.,Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers,Hedonic pricing puts an implicit price on each of a goods characteristics., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,13 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,From 1960 to 2003, nominal GDP increased by a factor of 21. Real GDP increased by a factor of 4.,Nominal and Real GDP U.S. GDP Since 1960,Figure 1 - 2, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,14 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,Real GDP per capita is the ratio of real GDP to the population of the country.GDP growth equals:,Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansions.Periods of negative GDP growth are called recessions., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,15 of 27,Nominal and Real GDP,Figure 2-2,Growth Rate of U.S. GDP Since 1960,Since 1960, the U.S. economy has gone through a series of expansions interrupted by short recessions., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,16 of 27,The Other MajorMacroeconomic Variables,GDP is obviously the most important macroeconomic variable. But two other variables tell us about other important aspects of how an economic is performing:UnemploymentInflation,2-2, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,17 of 27,The Unemployment Rate,labor force = employment + unemployment L = N + UUnemployment rate:, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,18 of 27,失业率的实质,衡量劳动力市场供需缺口的指标中国有关失业的定义及其缺陷城镇登记失业率 城镇调查失业率 学者的努力：推测农村剩余劳动力、真实城镇失业率计划经济时期的失业？, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,19 of 27,城镇登记失业率,指有非农业户口，在一定的劳动年龄内（16岁以上及男50岁以下、女45岁以下），有劳动能力，无业而要求就业，并在当地就业服务机构进行求职登记的人员。 出处:中国统计年鉴缺陷:没有包含以下人员 农民工 50岁以上男、45岁以上女 未登记的失业人员 下岗人员。, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,20 of 27,城镇调查失业率,指城镇常住人口中一定年龄以上，有劳动能力，在调查期间无工作，当前有就业可能并以某种方式寻找工作的人员。在城镇劳动力调查中对城镇16岁及以上，具有劳动能力并同时符合以下各项条件的人员列为失业人员：(1)在调查周内未从事为取得劳动报酬或经营利润的劳动，也没有处于就业定义中的暂时未工作状态；(2)在某一特定期间内采取了某种方式寻找工作；(3)当前如有工作机会可以在一个特定期间内应聘就业或从事自营职业。 出处:中国劳动统计年鉴。缺陷:没有包含下岗人员。, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,21 of 27,中国有关失业的统计,中国统计年鉴、劳动统计年鉴：城镇登记失业率 劳动统计年鉴：城镇调查失业率 2000年人口普查 学者的推测：农村剩余劳动力、真实城镇失业率, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,22 of 27,The Unemployment Rate,Since 1960, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3 and 10%, going down during expansions, and going up during recessions.,U.S. Unemployment Rate Since 1960.,Figure 2-3, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,23 of 27,中国城镇的失业状况（万人、）,出处: (1)登记失业者及登记失业率的数据见中国统计年鉴或中国劳动统计年鉴。 (2)调查失业率的数据见中国劳动统计年鉴(1998、1999)或胡安钢 (1997) 。 (3)真实失业者及真实失业率的数据见胡安钢 (1997) 。 (4)真实失业者及真实失业率的数据为笔者依据上述资料做的推测 。, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,24 of 27,The Unemployment Rate,The Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to compute the unemployment rate.Only those looking for work are counted as unemployed. Those not working and not looking for work are not in the labor force.People without jobs who give up looking for work are known as discouraged workers.Participation rate, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,25 of 27,Why Do Economists Care About Unemployment?,Economists care about unemployment for two reasons:Because of its direct effects on the welfare of the unemployed.Because it signals that the economy may not be using some of its resources efficiently.,Did Spain Really Have a 24% Unemployment Rate in 1994?,The underground economy is not measured in official statistics., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,26 of 27,The Inflation Rate,Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of pricesthe price level.The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level increases. (Conversely, deflation is a sustained decline in the price level. It corresponds to a negative inflation rate). Deflation is rare, but it does happen. Japan has experienced deflation since the late 1990s., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,27 of 27,The GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is what is called an index numberset equal to 100 in the base year.The rate of change in the GDP deflator equals the rate of inflation:,Nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP:,The GDP deflator in year t, Pt, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,28 of 27,The Consumer Price Index,The GDP deflator measures the average price of output, while the consumer price index, or CPI, measures the average price of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of living.The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods and services over time, which attempts to represent the consumption basket of a typical urban consumer., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,29 of 27,The Consumer Price Index,CPI的设计中国CPI的八大类商品和服务：食品权重是336、烟酒及饮品是144、衣着是9、家庭设备用品及其维修服务是62、交通和通讯是93、娱乐教育文化用品及服务是45、居住是136、其他9.4 。美国CPI是指包括200多种各式各样的商品和服务价格的平均变化值。这些商品与服务又分为8个主要类别及不同的权重。如住宅（421）、食品和饮料（154）、交通运输（169）、医疗（61）、服装（40）、娱乐（58）、教育和交流（59）、其他商品和服务（38）。, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,30 of 27, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,31 of 27,中国7月份通胀率创10年新高, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,32 of 27, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,33 of 27,The Consumer Price Index,The set of goods produced in the economy is not the same as the set of goods purchased by consumers for two reasons:Some of the goods are sold to firms, the government, or to foreigners.Some of the goods are not produced domestically but are imported from abroad., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,34 of 27,The Consumer Price Index,Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator since 1960,Figure 2-4,The inflation rates, computed using either the CPI or the GDP deflator, are largely similar., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,35 of 27,The Consumer Price Index,Figure 2-4 yields two conclusions:The CPI and the GDP deflator move together most of the time. In most years, the two inflation rates differ by less than 1%.There are clear exceptions, however. In both 1974 and in the late 1970s, the increase in the CPI was significantly larger than the increase in the GDP deflator., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,36 of 27, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,37 of 27,Why Do Economists Care About Inflation?,Economists care about inflation for two reasons:During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distribution.Inflation leads to other distortions., 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard,38 of 27,The Short Run, the Medium Run, the Long Run,Output is determined by:demand in the short run, say, a few years,the level of technology, the capital stock, and the labor force in the medium run, say, a decade or so,factors such as education, research, saving, and the quality of government in the long run, say, a half century or more.,2-3, 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroec