中国养老金改革(ppt 20页)(英文版).ppt

“PensionReforminChina”,BYSTUARTH.LECKIE,O.B.E.,J.P.,F.F.A.,F.I.A.CHAIRMAN,GREATERCHINAHEWITTASSOCIATESTEL:(852)21479278FAX:(852)21472822E-mail:stuart.leckie21January2002,TheActuarialProfession-AgeingPopulation,Contents,MapofChinaPRCPopulationOldSystem(IronRiceBowl)WorldBankPensionPrinciplesfortheFutureNewSystem(SafetyNet)FinancingPensionAssetsDevelopCapitalMarketsImplementationIssuesSupplementaryPensionPlansOpportunitiesforFundManagersNationalSocialSecurityFundLiaoningExperimentComparisonofHongKongandPRCPossibleDevelopmentsinChinaMajorFactorsforanIdealRetirementSystem,MapofChina,PRCPopulation,Total:RuralPopulation:+UrbanPopulationConsider:OneChildPolicyGreatlyimprovedlifeexpectancyDependencyRatiodeterioratingrapidly,Exceeds1.2billion900million+400millionAges:0-14100million15-64275million65+25million,OldSystem(IronRiceBowl),WorkersemployedforlifebyStateOwnedEnterprises(SOE)LowWagesbutTotalSecurityPensionat60(Males)or55(Females)=80%offinalsalaryPensionspaidbySOEsNoPre-fundingorReserves(i.e.pay-as-you-go),butwhatifSOEsunabletopaypensions?Chinaisveryconcernedaboutsocialunrestresultingfromunpaidpensionsandtheunemployed,WorldBank,Inearly1990s,WorldBankstudieshowbesttosolvetheageingissuesinChinaWorldBanksuggestedathreepillarapproachGovernmentrunbasicpensionPrivatelyrunindividualaccountsVoluntaryemployer/individualsavings1993and1996announcementsonsocialsecurityreformUnifysocialsecuritypensionCreateindividualaccountswithinbasicsocialsecurityEnhancewithsupplementarypensionplans,PensionPrinciplesforFuture,ReducepensionexpectationsCostburdentobesharedbyemployerandemployeeMovetowardspre-fundingReasons?PopulationprojectionsSOErestructuringDevelopdomesticcapitalmarkets,NewSystem(SafetyNet),NewUnifiedPensionSystemReform(July1997)ExpandcoveragetoallurbanemployeesGraduallyraiseretirementage(to65yearsformenhowevernotenoughforfutureobligationsPillarIIIpensionassetsmanagedbyinsurancecompanies;fullyfundedschemesThegovernmentisconsideringseveralinitiativestomeetthepensionsshortfallSpecialtaxesLotteryIssueofrecognitionbondsSaleofStateOwnedassetsLaunchofChineseTrackerFund,DevelopCapitalMarkets,SOEstoberestructured:1,0002,000Merge,close,downsizeorcorporatizeListonstockMarketthroughAshares?Howmuchcapitalisrequiredinthenext5years?10years?Howtoapplypensionassetstocapitalmarketsandmaximizereturns(deposits+bonds+equities+mutualfunds+realestate+infrastructure)WorldBankestimatespensionassetsofUS$1.8trillionby2030,ImplementationIssues,ComplianceAdministrationPreservationPortabilityAffordabilityEducationTaxation,SupplementaryPensionPlans,Employersponsoredretirementschemes:GrouppensionsthroughdomesticlifecompaniesSPPstobeofferedbyprovinceslicensedbyMinistryofLabourandSocialSecurity“Enterpriseannuity”proposalsbyMLSSTaxpositiononpensionsnotclearButtaxconcessionslikelytoencourageSPPsBy2005internationalinsurerscanwritegroupbusiness,OpportunitiesforFundManagers,PillarI;NoPillarII;ShorttermNo;MediumTermOutsourcingbySocialSecurityBureaus;Long-term401(k)plans?PillarIII;ViaInsuranceCompanies;Latersegregatedfunds?NationalSocialSecurityFund;Possible,NationalSocialSecurityFund,IntheeventthatsomeprovinceshaveinsufficientfundsforPillarsI&II,theStateCouncilhasestablishedan“emergencyfund”Income:10%ofIPOsNationalCouncilforSocialSecurityFundtoactasTrusteesInvestmentManagement:willappointexternalmanagersOutgo:tobedecided,LiaoningExperiment,LiaoningindustrialprovinceinnortheastVeryseriousfundingproblemsDocument42(July2001)Basicpension30%oflocalaverageearningsIndividualaccountEmployeescontributionsonly(8%)MustbeproperlyfundedMajorproblemofbackfundingtobesolved,ComparisonofHongKongandChina,2aspectstoeveryretirementsystemDesignFundingHowdoHKandPRCmeasureup?,HongKong,PRC,Design,Funding,X,X,PossibleDevelopmentsinChina,Open-endedFundsChineseTrackerFundJVInvestmentCompaniesMergingofAandBSharesMergingofStockMarketsFreeMarketforForeignInsuranceLiberalisationofPensionandInsuranceFundsInvestmentDevelopmentofUnit-linkedInsuranceand401(k)PensionsPrivatisationofSecondPillarPensions(IndividualAccounts)ConvertibilityofRenminbiInternationalInvestmentbyInstitutions,MajorFactorsforIdealRetirementSystem,1.Integratedlong-termapproachtoensureadequateretirementincome2.Recognizeschangingemploymentstructure,familypatternsandpersonalinterest3.Maximisescoverageandparticipation4.Leadstosavingsculturebyindividuals5.Increasesnationalsavingsandecono