战略分析工具+分析方法-varianceanalysis.ppt

Author:AltonShader,JamesBaker,VarianceAnalysis,March1998,2,Agenda,Whatisvarianceanalysis?LinearvarianceIceCreamCo.TwocomponentvarianceanalysisJessesBreweryVarianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponentsBostonVideoKeytakeaways,3,WhatisVarianceAnalysis?,Varianceanalysisisusedtounderstandandassessthedriversofchangeinmeasuredvariables.,Varianceanalysishelpsexplainandunderstandwhatdrivesthedifferencebetweentwomeasuresofthesamevariable(e.g.,1998profitvs.1995profit)Varianceanalysisexplainsdifferencesbetweenmeasuresbybreakingthosemeasuresintotheirbasecomponents(e.g.,1998revenueand1998OPEXascomponentsof1998profit)andquantifyingtheimpactofeachcomponentBainfrequentlyusesvarianceanalysistoquantifyandidentifytrueprofitdrivershelpdrivefutureanalysisonthemostleveragedissues,4,TheValueofVarianceAnalysis,Whydoweneedtoperformvarianceanalysis?,Givesbusinessinsightastowhatdrivesrevenue/cost/profit,Leadstoactions,Bainusesvarianceanalysistogainbusinessinsightandtoidentifythemosteffectiveandvaluableactionsteps.,Whydoesprofitchange?Whatdriverhasthemostimpact?Whatexplainsdifferencesinrelativecostposition?,UsedtodetermineproductlineprofitabilityIdentifiesareasoffocusforcostreductionIndicatesimpactofloweringpriceDrivescustomersegmentationstrategies,5,DefinitionsinVarianceAnalysis,Mostsituationsfallintooneofthreecategoriesofvarianceanalysis.,Description:,TwoComponent,Understandingindividualimpactoftwovariableonasinglemeasure,Linear,Simplecomparisonofonecomponentagainstanother,MorethanTwoComponent,Understandingindividualimpactofmorethantwovariablesonasinglemeasure,Example:,1998revenueincreasesdrivenby1998priceincreaseandunitsales,1990totalcostperunitversus1995totalcostperunit,Differencesincustomerrevenuedrivenbynumberoftransactions,productmixandotherfees,6,Agenda,Whatisvarianceanalysis?LinearvarianceIceCreamCo.TwocomponentvarianceanalysisJessesBreweryVarianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponentsBostonVideoKeytakeaways,7,Situation:,OritandTomsIceCreamCduceicecreamwhichtheysellingallon-sizedcontainersatsupermarketsaroundthecountryTheyhavetrackedtheircosttoproduceicecreampergallonovertimeandhaveseenitdeclineoverfiveyearsby25%,Question:,Whathasdrivencostsdownward?WhatmightOritandTomfocusontoachievebettercostsavingsgoingintothefuture?,LinearVarianceExample(IceCreamCo.),8,1995,1990,Variance,Productioncosts:(includessales,labor,admin),$220,500,$210,000,$10,500,Rawmaterialscosts:,$63,000,$60,000,$3,000,Advertisingexpenses:,$31,500,$30,000,$1,500,Totalgallonssold:,70,000,50,000,20,000,LinearVarianceExample,9,Unitproductioncosts:,$3.15,$4.20,($1.05),Unitrawmaterialscosts:,$0.90,$1.20,($0.30),Unitadvertisingcosts:,$0.45,$0.60,($0.15),Totalperunitcosts:,$4.50,$6.00,($1.50),1995,1990,Variance,LinearVarianceExample(VarianceperGallon),10,ThoroughBainanalysisofthedataallocatedthereducedcostsintothreecomponents.,LinearVariancesExample(IceCreamCo.),11,LinearVariancesExample,ManagementofIceCreamCo.appearstohaveenjoyedincreasingeconomiesofscale,particularlyrelatingtoproductioncosts,whichhavedrivencostsdownwardOritandTommightwanttofocusinthefutureongainingevengreaterleverageinmanagingproductioncostsasproductionvolumeincreases,12,Agenda,Whatisvarianceanalysis?LinearvarianceIceCreamCo.TwocomponentvarianceanalysisJessesBreweryVarianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponentsBostonVideoKeytakeaways,13,Situation:,JessesBreweryproduceshigh-qualitybeerswhichitsellsincasesInthepastyear,JessesBreweryhasexperienced15%revenuegrowth.Duringthesametime,salesvolumesandpriceshavebothincreased,Question:,JessesBrewerywouldliketounderstandwhatpercentoftherevenueincreasecomesfromtheincreaseinsalesvolumes,andwhatpercentfromtheincreaseinprice,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(1of6),14,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(2of6),CasePrice:,CasesSold:,$18.20,$20.00,9.7MM,10.2MM,Whatpercentofthe$27MMincreaseinrevenueisduetothepriceincreasing?thevolumesoldincreasing?boththepriceandvolumesoldincreasing?thisiscovariance,wherepartofthevarianceisnoteasilyattributabletoasinglevariable,15,Volume,1998Revenue,$203.5MM,1997Revenue,Price,Variance,(Partof,revenue,change,attributableto,price),$18.20,(1997),$20.00,(1998),10.2MM,(1998),9.7MM,(1997),Price,VolumeVariance,(Partofrevenuechange,attributabletovolume),Covariance,(partofrevenue,changeattributable,tochangeinboth,volumeandprice),Thebestwaytoapproachvarianceanalysisproblemsistousetherectanglediagramstointuitivelyunderstandhowthechangesinthetwovariablesaccountforthechangeintheoverallquantity.,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(3of6),16,Volume,1998Revenue,(P2xV2),1997Revenue,(P1xV1),Price,Variance,(Partof,revenue,change,attributableto,price),P1,(1997),P2,(1998),V2,(1998),V1,(1997),Price,VolumeVariance,(Partofrevenuechange,attributabletovolume),Co-,variance,Step1:,VolumeVariance,=(V2-V1)xP1,Step2:,PriceVariance,=(P2-P1)xV1,Step3:,:Covariance,=(V2-V1)x(P2-P1),Step4:,Allocatecovariance,tovolumeandpricevariance,basedontheproportionofthe,totalforeachvariance,-e.g.,if:,volumevariance=$2M,pricevariance=$1M,covariance=$.5M,then66.7%of$.5is,addedtothevolumeand,33.3%isaddedtotheprice,Afour-stepprocessleadstothesolution.,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(4of6),17,JessesBrewery,1997,Variance,Data,Pricepercase,$18.20,$1.8,Numberofcasessold(inMM),9.7,.5,Revenues(in$MM),$176.5,$27.0,Step1:,PriceVariance,$17.0,Step2:,VolumeVariance,$9.1,Step3:,Covariance,$0.9,Revenuevarianceexcludingcovariance,$26.1,Proportionsforassigningcovariance,Price,Volume,Assignmentofcovariance,toPriceVariance,$0.6,toVolumeVariance,$0.3,AdjustedVariances,PriceVariance,VolumeVariance,(P1),(P2-P1),(V1),(V2-V1),$176.5(P1xV1),(193.5-176.5),(185.6-176.5),(P2-P1)x(V2-V1),(17.0+9.1),(0.9x65%),(0.9x35%),63%,34%,3%,65%,35%,(17.0/27.0),(9.1/27.0),(0.9/27.0),(17.0/26.1),(9.1/26.1),$176.5(P1xV1),1998,$20.00,10.2,$203.5,(P2),(V2),$185.6(V2xP1),$193.5(P2xV1),$17.6,$9.4,(17.0+0.6),(9.1+0.3),Variance%,Hereisanexampleofanannotatedspreadsheettodeterminevariance.,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(5of6),18,Pricevariance:,Volumevariance:,Covariance:,$17.0MM,$9.1MM,$0.9MM,Proportionsare,65%,35%,65%,35%,topricevariance,$0.6MM,tovolumevariance,$0.3MM,+,+,$17.0MM,$17.6MM,Price,$9.1MM,$9.4MM,Volume,Totalvariances:,(65%),(35%),Ifpriceandvolumevariancesarecalculatedcorrectly,thenwe,cantaketheirproportionstoallocatecovariance.,TwoComponentVarianceExample-JessesBrewery(6of6),19,NegativeCovariance,14.7,new,(1998),9.7,(1997),$18.20,(1997),$17.00,new,(1998),Volume,Price,Evenifonevariabledecreases,theformulaappliesthesameway.The,onlydifferenceisthatpricevarianceandcovarianceturnnegative.,Volume,=(14.7-9.7)x$18.20,Price,=($17.00-$18.20)x9.7,=,=,$91.0MM,-$11.6MM,Covariance,=(14.7-9.7)x($17.00-$18.20),=,-$6.0MM,$73.4MM,TotalVariance,Insomesituationsonevariablemayfallastheotherrises.,Theformulaforcovariancedoesnotchange.,20,NegativeCovariance,Tosummarize,themethodologydoesnotchangeincalculatingnegativecovariance.,21,Agenda,Whatisvarianceanalysis?LinearvarianceIceCreamCo.TwocomponentvarianceanalysisJessesBreweryVarianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponentsBostonVideoKeytakeaways,22,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,Situation:,BostonVideoisachainofvideorentalstoresintheNortheastU.S.Inadditiontorentingvideomoviesandgames,thestoressellavarietyofmovie-relateditems(popcorn,candy,filmmagazines).TheyalsogetmoneyforlatefeesBainhasbeenhiredtohelpBostonVideosegmentitscustomerbaseandunderstandwhatdrivesthedifferencesinspendingpatternsbetweensegments,Question:,Whatvariablesimpactrevenuepercustomer?Whatistheoverallvariancebycustomertype?Whatarethebreakdownsofthatvariancebycustomertype?WhatshouldBainfocusonimproving?,23,11,411customers,74Ktransactions,$441K,Customersweresegmentedinto3groups.“A”customersrepresentonly20%ofBostonscustomerbasebutgenerate50%ofstoretransactionsand60%ofrevenue.,A,B,&CCustomersData,Howmightyouframeananalysistounderstandalotimpactsrevenuespercustomer?,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,24,RevenueDriversFramework,Thedifferencesincustomerspendinglevelsbetweensegmentscanbeidentifiedandisolatedintotwobroadcategories.,NumberofTransactions,LateFeesandOther,Quantity,ProductMix,RevenueperTransaction,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,25,NumberofTransactions,RevenueperTransaction,Thefollowingdatawasmadeavailableaboutcustomerhabits.,CustomerSegmentation,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,26,RevenuePerCustomerPerMonth,“A”customersspentonaverage2.6xtheaverage“B”customerandnearly10 xtheaverage“C”customer.,$11.82,$17.02,Customersegment:,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,2.76x$6.89,1.29x$5.38,0.45x$4.45,27,DriversofVariance,Howwouldyoucompletethisslideshowingthesplitbetweenthetwovariancedrivers?,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,28,Thisspreadsheetdetailsthecalculationsnecessarytocomputethevariancesandcovariancefortransactionsandrevenuepercustomer.,SampleSpreadsheet,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,29,SampleSpreadsheet,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,30,Nowsupposetheclientwantstofurtherunderstandwhatdrivesrevenuepertransaction.Howwouldyoucompletethisslideshowingthesplitbetweenthethreerevenuepertransactionvariables?,Customersegment:,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,RevenuePerTransactionSourcesofVariance,VarianceAnalysis(RevenueperTransaction),31,SampleSpreadsheet,Thisspreadsheetfurtherallocatesrevenuepertransactionvarianceintotypesofproductpurchased.,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceExample,32,Varianceanalysisshowedthattheprimarydifferencebetweencustomersegmentswashowoftentheycametothestore.Over70%ofthevariancebetweenAcustomersandtheotherswasexplainedbytransactionfrequency.,DriversofVariance,26%,74%,70%,30%,MoreThanTwoComponentVarianceE