基于控制论的突发事件应急管理架构

基于控制论的突发事件应急管理架构TheSystemFrameworkofEmergencyManagementBasedonCybernetics,YahuiWang123WenzhouWang3JianWang2XiaoLiu2,SchoolofEconomicsandManagementofBeihangUniversityBeijing,100083,P.R.China2.BeijingInstituteofCivilEngineering2.Controlisthebasicwaytoachievetheorganizationsgoal;3.Controlistheeffectivemethodtoimprovework.,2.THEFRAMEWORKOFCYBERNETICSAPPLYINGTOEMERGENCYMANAGEMENT,3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS,3.1SettingSegmentSettingsegmentisthesegmentwhichproducesinputtocontrolsystem;Theinputofmanagementcontrolsystemisthegivenplans.Thecontrolledsystemrunsaccordingtoplans,toensurenoerrorwiththedestinationtrack.Inemergencymanagementcontroltheory,thedestinationcontrolisadopted.Thedestinationcontrolis:theinputofsystemisthedestinationwhichsystemaimsat,i.e.,thesetgoal.Thisisamoremacro-scopticalcontrolmode.Thesettingsegmentisnotinvariable;itadjustscontinuallyaccordingtotheaccumulationofsystemhistoricaldataandthejudgmentofeventdisposaleffect.Thisisanobviousdifferenceaspectwithclassicalcontroltheory.,3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS,3.2ControlSegmentDecision-makingandcontrolsegmentisthekeysegmentinemergencymanagementprocess.Itincludestwomajorparts:decision-makingcontrol,i.e.,classificationandgradationassessingstandard,andswitchofpreventingplans.Onlytheclassificationandgradationmadebythedecision-makingcontrolsegmentisaccurateandthechosenpreventingplanisquickwhenemergenciesoccurs.,3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS,3.2.1ClassificationofCrisisorEmergencyEventTherewouldbemorepertinenceinthejudgmentforsituationofadisasterandthedesignofrelievingschemeifthereisclassificationandspecificdetailswhenemergencyeventoccurs.Insimplewords,thepurposeofclassificationistospecifythekindsofresourcesinvolved.Thedifferentdisasterkindsofemergencyeventrelatewiththetraitsofemergencyeventinthebeginning,developingphaseandthedifferentgeographyandresource.Wecouldchoosecorrelativevariables,ensuredifferentkindsofdataandbasicparameters,sorttheemergencyevents.,3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS,3.2.2GradationofEmergencyEventBasingonclassification,relativeelementsandinfluenceparameteraboutgradationshouldbestudiedandconfirmedunderspecifickindofdisaster,andrelativeelementmodulesshouldbeset,thesearethefoundationsforgradation;scientificgradationforemergencyeventscouldhelppeopletounderstandtheseriousnessofemergencyeventandinstancyofsuccormorecorrectly.Themainobjectiveofgradationistodeterminetheamountofdevotingresources.Theglobalobjectivetogradeeventsistofindoutaseriesofrelativeelementssuchastheerrorcharacteristics,resourcecharacteristics,sotheswitchofcontrolstrategycouldbeconductedquicklyandsaveasmuchenergyandresourcesaspossibleatthesametime.,3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS,3.3InformationFeedbackDisposalSegmentEmergencymanagementcontrolsystemisaminusfeedbackclosed-loopsystemwithinformationfeedbacksegment.Closed-loopsystemwithaminusfeedbackusuallycouldresisttheimpactonsystemfromoutsidedisturbancesanduncertaintiesofsystemitself,soithasstrongeradaptiveabilitytoenvironment,andthecontrolprecisionismoreaccurate.Thedifferencebetweenthesystemputforwardherefromusualfeedbackcontrolstrategyisthatthefeedbacknotonlycompareswiththesetpointbutalsohasinfluencesonsettingsegment,soinemergencymanagementcontrolsystemtheinputisinfluencedbytheoutputdefinitely.Insuchsystem,theresultsofpastsystemoperationscouldbenotedtodosomehistoricaldatarecordsforthefuturecontrolononeside,butmoreimportantisthesettingsegmentshouldconductsomechangesdynamicallyaccordingtothechangesofsystemstates.,4.CONTROLSTRATEGYCREATION,IMPLEMENTATIONANDDYNAMICALADJUSUMENTOFPREVENTINGPLAN,Thepreventingplanistheforecastingschemeormethodforemergencyevent.Inalongfuturetime,humanbeingswouldnothaveenoughstrengthtoresistandeliminatethedestroyingemergencysourceatall,sothepreventingplanhasveryimportantstatusandfunctioninthewholeemergencymanagement.Preventingplanmanagementistheanalysisofinformation,theforecastoffuturedevelopmenttrendandtherecognitionofpossiblethreat,andcreatingcorrespondingforecastingdisposalforthesituations,oncetheforecastingeventoccurs,thecorrespondingpreventingplancouldbestartupquickly,thedevelopmentofsystemstatecouldbecontrolledandthepotentiallosscouldbeeliminatedaspossibletomaintenancethewholesystembenefitandlong-termbenefit.Everyforecastingactionplanisanemergencyplan,whichisthecontrolstrategyincontrolstructurediagraminfact,usuallyithasthefollowingphasesinemergencymanagement:,4.CONTROLSTRATEGYCREATION,IMPLEMENTATIONANDDYNAMICALADJUSUMENTOFPREVENTINGPLAN,4.1CreationofPreventingPlanTherearefivemajorsegmentsinthecreationofpreventingplan:therecognition,assessandjudgmentofobject(emergencyevent);theguaranteeofresourcethescale,kindandintensionofrelativeresources;implementationtheimplementationofspecificsuccorprocedureandmeasure;monitorinthewholesuccorprocess,theprocedure,resourcesandeffectivenessofimplementationshouldbemonitoredandcontrolled;dynamicaladjustmentandmanagementofpreventingplan.Theabovefivemajorsegmentsisnotonlytheflowforthecreationofpreventingplan,butalsotheflowfortheimplementationofpreventingplan.Inaddition,thecreationofpreventingplanneedslotsofhistoricalexperiencesdadaasgist,combiningwithcorrespondingspecialtybackgroundknowledge,andscientific,reasonablecreationprinciplesandmethodsforpreventingplan.Takethecreationofpreventingplanforfireemergencymanagementasexample,asshowninFig.2.,4.CONTROLSTRATEGYCREATION,IMPLEMENTATIONANDDYNAMICALADJUSUMENTOFPREVENTINGPLAN,4.2TheImplementationofPreventingPlanTheProcessofControllingSystemitcouldbeseeneasilythattheproductionofemergencyisfromdifferentkindsofeventsources.Whentheeventsourcegivesbirthtoemergencyeventandinfluencesthewholesystem,thecontrolsystemwouldproducealarmsignaltostartupswitchsegmentandswitchfromnormalcontrolchanneltoemergencydecision-makingcontrolandpreventingplanchoosingsegment.Inthisphase,systemwouldconductcorrespondingpreventingplanstodifferentkindsofemergencyevents.Theimplementationofpreventingplanisthecontrolprocessofevent,ithastwopotentialresults:1.Theimplementationofchosenpreventingplanhasrightoutcome,thesystemoutputconvergences,theoutputvaluegoesintonormalerrorboundgradually,andswitchestonormalcontrolchannelagainthroughstateswitchsegment,systemrunsnormally;2.Theotheristheimplementationofchosenpreventingplandoesntobtaintheexpectanteffect,atthisstatethereshouldbedynamicaladjustmentsforthepreventingplan.,4.CONTROLSTRATEGYCREATION,IMPLEMENTATIONANDDYNAMICALADJUSUMENTOFPREVENTINGPLAN,4.3DynamicalAdjustmentofPreventingPlanInemergencymanagementclosed-loopcontrolsystem,withthedevelopmentofeventsandtheproductionofnewsituations,itisnecessarytodosomeadjustments,supplementstothebeingimplementedpreventingplanatanytime,atanyplacetoensurethepreventingplanconsistwiththecurrentstate.Thiskindofadjustmenttopreventingplanatanytime,atanyplaceiscalled“dynamicaladjustmentofpreventingplan”.Ifafterdoingdynamicaladjustmentstopreventingplanseveraltimes,thereisntavailabilityonthestableconvergenceofthesysteminfinitetime,thenitillustratesthatthesystemgoesintothestateofoutofcontrol.Atthisstate,theadministratorshouldconsidertransformingtheemergencymanagementintocrisismanagement,andheshouldgetreadytogotocrisisdisposalphase.,5.CONCLUSION,Thispaperpresentsthetheoreticalframeworkforemergencymanagementcontroltheory.Wecombinethesystemflowchartwiththeemergencymanagementreasonably.Despiteitisjustinthephaseofattemptingthatcitingfromcontroltheorytoemergencymanagement,butwehaveconfidenttobelievethatnaturecontrolideaincontroltheorycouldsolvethetroubles,dynamicaladjustmentofpreventingplaninwholesysteminemergencymanagementverypossibly.Itcouldbeexpectedthatthereasonablecombinationofemergencyandcontroltheorywoulddorightoutcomeintheinnovationanddevelopmen