影响税收的几个因素分析计量经济学论文

金融计量学论文影响税收的几个因素分析班级金融工程1003学号0206100304姓名李瑶成绩1数据选取（20分）2模型建立与数据分析（40分）3EVIEWS应用（10分）4结论陈述（10分）5整体行文（20分）6总分摘要税收是我国财政收入的基本因素，影响着我国的经济发展。本文通过查阅相关网站信息数据对影响我国税收的因素进行论述。通过EVIEWS计量学软件对国内生产总值、财政支出、商品零售价格指数等税收收入影响因素进行一定的证明与研究分析，得出相关结论，并对我国的税收提一些建议。关键词税收EVIEWS国内生产总值ABSTRACTTHETAXISTHEBASICFACTORSOFCHINASFISCALREVENUEIMPACTONCHINASECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTHISARTICLEDISCUSSESTHEFACTORSAFFECTINGCHINASTAXREVENUEBYACCESSTOTHERELEVANTSITEINFORMATIONANDDATASOMEFORMALRESEARCHANDANALYSIS,THEINFLUENCINGFACTORSOFTHETHEEVIEWSMETROLOGYSOFTWARE,THETAXREVENUESOFTHEGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTGDP,FISCALSPENDING,THERETAILPRICEINDEXANDDRAWRELEVANTCONCLUSIONS,ANDOURTAXSOMEADVICEKEYWORDSTAXEVIEWSGDP序言税收是国家为实现其职能，凭借政治权力，按照法律规定，通过税收工具强制地、无偿地征收参与国民收入和社会产品的分配和再分配取得财政收入的一种形式。税收主要用于国防和军队建设、国家公务员工资发放、道路交通和城市基础设施建设、科学研究、医疗卫生防疫、文化教育、救灾赈济、环境保护等领域。而税收一方面受经济发展的制约，但同时又对经济宏观发展起到重要作用。因此，我们需要对影响税收的重要因素加以分析。一变量的选取从整体来看，经济的增长是税收增长的主要源泉。因此，选择国内生产总值作为解释变量X1。税收是财政收入的一个主体，社会经济的发展会对公共财产产生需求。则财政支出可以代表，作为解释变量X2。我国的税制结构以流转税为主，以现行价格计算的GDP等指标和经营者的收入水平都与物价水平有关。所以选取商品零售指数作为物价水平的代表作为变量解释X3。二数据的选取以下是选取的样本数据，单位均为亿元年份国内生产总值国家财政支出商品零售物价指数税收收入198045456241228830106000057170001981489156111384101024000629890019825323351122998010190007000200198359626521409520101500077559001984720805217010201028000947350019859016037200425010880002040790198610275182204910106000020907301987120586222621801073000214036019881504282249121011850002390470198916992322823780117800027274001990186678230835901021000282186019912178150338662010290002990170199226923483742200105400032969101993353339246423001132000425530019944819786579262012170005126880199560793736823720114800060380401996711765979375501061000690982019977897303923356010080008234040199884402281079818974000092628001999896770513187679700000106825820009921455158865098500001258151200110965521890258992000015301382002120332722053159870000176364520031358228246499599905902001731200415987832848689102806225718002005183867933930281007774308660020062108710404227310102823763600（以上数据来源于中国统计年鉴及中宏数据库）三试验分析1、设定的线性回归模型为Y0X23DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/02/12TIME2351SAMPLE19802006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS27VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC63573062589143245537100221X100111910014037079726104335X209670820076821125887500000X357118412400345237959200260RSQUARED0994954MEANDEPENDENTVAR8681087ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0994296SDDEPENDENTVAR9909343SEOFREGRESSION7484057AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1620972SUMSQUAREDRESID12882553SCHWARZCRITERION1640170LOGLIKELIHOOD2148312FSTATISTIC1511718DURBINWATSONSTAT0691548PROBFSTATISTIC0000000由上表可以得出回归方程Y63573060011191X10967082X25711841X32589143001403700768212400345T24553710797261125887500260F151171899495402R99429502R四模型检验1、经济意义检验在假定其他变量不变的情况下，每当国内生产总值增加一亿时，税收便减少0011191；每当国家财政支出增加一亿时，税收增加0967082；每当商品零售物价指数增加一亿时，税收增加5711841。其中我认为国民生产总值与物价零售指数有一定出入，下文会有所校正。2、统计检验拟合优度由表中得出的两个数据（以下两个），可知模型对样本拟合的较好99495402R99429502RT检验中三个解释变量的T值分别是T02455371,T10797261,T21258875,T32379592在5显著性水平下自由度为NK1273123的T的临界值T0025232069其中截距的T值小于临界值说明截距与零没有显著性差异，三个偏斜率有一个没有通过显著性检验，T2与T3通过了显著性检验3、多重共线性的检验YX1X2X3Y1000000097974609967890383615X10979746100000009848330407265X20996789098483310000000416781X30383615040726504167811000000由上图可知X1与X2之间的相关系数高达0984833，两者高度正相关。将国内生产总值X1对国家财政支出X2进行回归分析DEPENDENTVARIABLEX1METHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME1923SAMPLE19802006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS27VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBX253643510189013283809000000C70633492797184252516400183RSQUARED0969897MEANDEPENDENTVAR6099578ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0968693SDDEPENDENTVAR6027790SEOFREGRESSION1066550AKAIKEINFOCRITERION2145860SUMSQUAREDRESID284E09SCHWARZCRITERION2155459LOGLIKELIHOOD2876911FSTATISTIC8054757DURBINWATSONSTAT0144634PROBFSTATISTIC0000000X1I706334953643512DW0144634F805475796989702R因此，X1与X2之间存在显著地线性关系VIF1/（1R2）332192810因此该模型具有多重共线性多重共线性修正结果分析运用OLS方法逐一求Y对各个结束变量的回归Y与X1Y11431760161065X1R20959902VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC11431765594057204355400517X101610650006584244636900000RSQUARED0959902MEANDEPENDENTVAR8681087ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0958298SDDEPENDENTVAR9909343SEOFREGRESSION2023592AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1813432SUMSQUAREDRESID102E08SCHWARZCRITERION1823031LOGLIKELIHOOD2428134FSTATISTIC5984724DURBINWATSONSTAT0170737PROBFSTATISTIC0000000Y与X2Y29273170892575X2R20993589INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS27VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBX208925750014340622443100000C29273172122144137941501800RSQUARED0993589MEANDEPENDENTVAR8681087ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0993332SDDEPENDENTVAR9909343SEOFREGRESSION8091614AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1630106SUMSQUAREDRESID16368556SCHWARZCRITERION1639705LOGLIKELIHOOD2180643FSTATISTIC3874355DURBINWATSONSTAT0501126PROBFSTATISTIC0000000Y与X3Y68011855649916X3R20147161DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME1951SAMPLE19802006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS27VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC68011852862230237618400255X356499162720256207697900482RSQUARED0147161MEANDEPENDENTVAR8681087ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0113047SDDEPENDENTVAR9909343SEOFREGRESSION9332439AKAIKEINFOCRITERION2119157SUMSQUAREDRESID218E09SCHWARZCRITERION2128756LOGLIKELIHOOD2840862FSTATISTIC4313843DURBINWATSONSTAT0179687PROBFSTATISTIC0048232由上面的三个基本回归方程可知，X2是最重要的解释变量，所以选择第二个基本回归方程作为出事的回归模型逐步回归将其余变量逐一代入式Y29273170892575X2得出如下几个模型YX2X3Y63946560906950X25673074X3R20994815DW0652300F230221299438302RDEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME2011SAMPLE19802006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS27VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC63946562568992248916900201X209069500014480626362700000X356730742381565238207800255RSQUARED0994815MEANDEPENDENTVAR8681087ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0994383SDDEPENDENTVAR9909343SEOFREGRESSION7427027AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1616291SUMSQUAREDRESID13238574SCHWARZCRITERION1630689LOGLIKELIHOOD2151993FSTATISTIC2302212DURBINWATSONSTAT0652300PROBFSTATISTIC0000000YX1X2X3Y63573060011191X10967082X25711841X3DW0652300F151171899495402R99429502R通过以上分析，得出X1税收影响并不显著，故将其剔除。在删除X1后模型的统计检验有较大改善，经过以上分析，Y对X2、X3的回归模型较优。最终回归结果如下Y63946560906950X25673074X3R20994815DW0652300F230221299438302R4、异方差性Y63946560906950X25673074X3由GQ检验，对样本按X2由大到小排序，去除中间的4个样本，剩余22个样本，再分成两个样本容量为11的子样本，对两个子样本分别用OLS法做回归子样本1DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME2058SAMPLE19801990INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS11VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC20728711265786163761501401X209368950031075301492400000X319197851266051151635701679RSQUARED0991411MEANDEPENDENTVAR1771326ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0989263SDDEPENDENTVAR9994315SEOFREGRESSION1035583AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1695032SUMSQUAREDRESID8579459SCHWARZCRITERION1705883LOGLIKELIHOOD9022675FSTATISTIC4616999DURBINWATSONSTAT0713244PROBFSTATISTIC0000000Y20728710936895X21919785X3R200991411RSS18579459子样本2DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME2114SAMPLE19962006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS11VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC25319821207246209732100692X212134650110850109469500000X316597901225248135465702125RSQUARED0960384MEANDEPENDENTVAR1621469ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0950480SDDEPENDENTVAR8958196SEOFREGRESSION1993467AKAIKEINFOCRITERION1365497SUMSQUAREDRESID3179127SCHWARZCRITERION1376349LOGLIKELIHOOD7210233FSTATISTIC9697020DURBINWATSONSTAT1934652PROBFSTATISTIC0000002Y25319821213465X21659790X3R20960384RSS23179127计算F统计量FRSS1/1121RSS2/1121269868在5的显著性水平下，自由度为（8，8）的F的分布临界值为F0005（8,8）344，于是拒绝了同方差的假设，表明元模型存在异方差。异方差性修正结果分析采用加权最小二乘法进行估计以1/|EI|为权重进行加权最小二乘法，则有DEPENDENTVARIABLEYMETHODLEASTSQUARESDATE06/03/12TIME2137SAMPLEADJUSTED19962006INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS11AFTERADJUSTINGENDPOINTSWEIGHTINGSERIES1/ABSE1VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORT