Bowling with a Crystal Ball一个水晶球保龄球

1、bowling with a crystal ball,Yoram Solomon Association for Strategic Planning 2008 National Conference,what is the problem today?,Short-term focus of companies Innovation is risky Innovation is hard The role of people is understated The probability of success is low Limited strategists accountability

2、,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From

3、market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,three phases of innovation,Predicting technology (and other) trends,Identifying opportunities p

4、roducts, technologies,Navigating them through the industry maze,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist

5、 accountability,future trends,Local Forces Competitors Customers Suppliers / Partners Corporate Global forces Politics Economy Society Nature Technology,disruptive technologies,technology disrupts a new market,technology disrupts multiple markets,visionary technological trend prediction,April 19, 19

6、65, in Volume 38 of “Electronics” magazine Title: “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits” Author: Director of the R&D Labs, Fairchild semiconductors Sub-title: “with unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000

7、 components on a single silicon chip” The author was Dr. Gordon E. Moore. Only 7 years earlier, Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments invented the Integrated Circuit (won Noble prize in Physics in 2000 for that invention) Today, a 90nm, 5x5mm IC holds over 3 million logical gates,moores law,semiconductor

8、process trends,Source: ITRS,hard disk drive density trends,storage cost trends,processing power trends,DSP processing trends,DSP power consumption trends,communication speed trends,digital camera resolution trends,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Mo

9、ores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,why isnt Moores law leveling off?,Time,Technology parameter,Barrier 2,Barrier 1,Actual products,Products if barrier not crossed,Trend

10、line,The trend line is a psychological line. Researchers are addressing challenges and barriers to stay on a consistent trend line,industry cooperation,Time,Technology parameter,4 years,8-15 years,“Pre-competition” Cooperation,Competition Phase,Qualified Process,Address barriers that affect everyone

11、,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,implications of technology trends,It takes 7 ye

12、ars to deliver a product to market What will technology deliver in 2014? Digital camera resolution: 8.5MP (30MP) Semiconductor process: 65nm (32nm) Hard Disk Drive price: 40/GB (0.5/GB, $100=20,000GB) Flash memory price: $5/GB (42/GB, $10=24GB) DSP processing power: 10,000 MMACS (124,000 MMACS) Cost

13、 of processing HDTV: $81 ($5.2) Power of processing HDTV: 0.7W (31mW),How thick is a piece of printer paper if folded 50 times?,If car engines evolved as fast as semiconductorsa 1600cc car would have 23,000 BHP in 2005,Predicting technology trends accurately is a critical asset,If as fast as hard di

14、sk drive density3 million BHP,prediction using two points,1995 540MB,2004 160GB,prediction error,technology sweet spot,memory capacity vs. price,technology performance parameters,number of components per IC,the time horizon: shoot in front of the duck,Value,Time,You are here,2006,2002,1998,1994,1990

15、,2010,2014,Target market timing,Shoot in front of the duck,20-year trend line,10-year trend line,2-3 years,The target,Introduction,4 years Develop,implications of technology trends,Problem: the technology history is not too long Problem: the trends are very aggressive and curves are steep Question:

16、will those trends continue? Question: when will “Moores law” level off? Question: why do I need 2.9 Terabytes of disk space? Question: do we have a request from a customer? Those are the wrong questions because Technology companies keep focusing on improving Technology changes and disruptions allow

17、them to keep the curves 10 years ago you wouldnt believe where we are today You cant imagine all future applications but they will happen The right question: what could I do if,When,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Pr

18、edicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,capitalizing on a technological trend,Capacity of Hard disk drives is growing 107% a year Late 1990s: “what could I do if a hard disk drive held 10GB, was 1.5” in dia

19、meter, and could run off a battery?” The iPod was launched on October 2001 By December 16, 2004, Apple Sold 10 million iPods 8.2m iPods sold in 2004 alone 8.5m iPods sold in 2Q06 alone creating a $7b/year market,consumption trends,Copyright 2007, Yoram Solomon,Ways to grow capacity Number of surface

20、s (not growing) Number of tracks Number of bits per track (BPT) RPM (not affecting capacity) 540MB 1996, 160GB 2004 growing 296x in 8 years, 17.2x in 4 years Therefore capacity in 2008: 160GB x 17.2 = 2,750GB Transfer rate is 100MB/s 3.5”, 75MB/s 2.5”, 10MB/s 1” Assuming # of tracks and BPT grow at

21、same ratio to provide increased density Capacity increase (17.2x) is made of # of tracks increase x Bit/Track increase, to Bits/Track increase over 4 years is 4.15x Spindle speed grew from 3,600RPM 1996 to 9,600RPM 2004 (2.7x in 8 years, 1.63x in 4 years), and will therefore be 1.63x faster in 2008

22、The transfer rate of a 3.5” HDD will be 100MB/s x 4.15 x 1.63 = 676MB/s (5.4Gbps) The transfer rate of a 1” HDD will be 10MB/s x 4.15 x 1.63 = 540Mbps in 2008, and 3.7Gbps in 2012.,example: disk transfer rate trend,where is the opportunity?,What is your business? High speed wired connectivity What a

23、re your core competencies? Analog and digital interfaces at high-speed What technology trends are around you? Disk drive capacity and speed growth How will people use those trends? More (and richer) content in mobile/portable devices Need to move this content around, most likely to/from a PC platfor

24、m How do those trends affect your markets? USB 2.0 is not fast enough Where is the opportunity? Develop a USB 3.0 technology at rates of 5 10 Gbps,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technolo

25、gy meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability,major and minor disruptions,main and derivative disruption,main and derivative disruption,agenda,Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level

26、 off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and strategist accountability,probability and the role of the strategist,So you found a disruptive implementation There is a very small probability of success Company internal Industry politics

27、,the role of the strategic planner,Traditionallyvisionary, points out the possibilities Todays reality: short time horizon, strong pushback, low probability of industry success You can bring a horse to water, but you cant make it drink or can you? Call for action: extend the role of the strategic planner: overcome internal barriers, use external politics Make it happen!,summary,The future is not as unpredictable as we might think Technology trends often do not level offbut rather stay o