金融学第二版课件 第3章 管理财务健康和绩效

1、Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 1 第3章 管理财务健康和绩效 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 2 3.1 财务报表的功能 3.2 财务报表的回顾 3.3 市场价值与账面价值 3.4 收入的会计度量与经济 度量 3.5 股东收益率（Return on Shareholders）与账面净资 产收益率（ Return on Book Equity） 3.6 运用财务比率进行分析 3.7 财务规划过

2、程 3.8 构建财务规划模型 3.9 增长和外部融资需要 3.10 营运资本管理 3.11 流动性与现金管理 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3 3.1 财务报表的功能 财务报表: 向所有者和债权人提供关于一家企业当前状况和过去绩效的 信息 为所有者和债权人提供方便的途径，以设定绩效目标和给企 业经理施加约束 为财务规划提供方便的模板 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4 Copyright 2

3、009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 5 资产负债表（The Balance Sheet） 总结一个时点上的一个时点上的企业资产、负债和所有者权益 货币量以历史值和历史汇率度量 根据通用会计准则准备（GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles） GAAP 有时由财务会计标准委员会（Financial Accounting Standards Board）修订 上市公司（Exchange-listed companies）必须遵守证 券和交易所委员会（Securities

4、and Exchange Commission，SEC）的规则。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 6 主要分类: 资产 流动资产(能在一年之内变现的资产) 固定资产(不能在一年之内变现的资产) 折旧 负债和股东权益 负债 流动负债 长期负债 股东权益 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 7 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as P

5、rentice Hall 8 损益表（The Income Statement） 总结一个公司一个时期内的盈利能力 主要分类: 销售收入 主营业务成本 毛利润 日常管理和销售费用 营运收入 利息费用（Debt service） 应税收入（Taxable income） 公司税（公司收入所得税） 净收入 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9 Important Reminders: 留存收益并不一定加在资产负债表的现金余额上，而 是加在股东权益上，因为留存收益是“观念上”属于 股东的钱增加了，并不

6、一定发生实际的现金流。 账面显示的是历史值，而不是市场值 股东权益可能远高或远低于企业的市场价值 企业土地的市值可能减半或加倍，但这不在资产负债表中报告 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 10 GPC Income Statement for Year Ending 2xx1 Sales revenues200.0 Cost of goods sold(110.0) *Gross margin90.0 Gen sell, & admin exp(30.0) *Operating income60

7、.0 Interest expense(21.0) *Taxable income39.0 Income tax(15.6) *Net income23.4 Allocation to divs(10.0) *Chg retained earn13.4 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 11 现金流量表 显示一个时期内一个时期内流进和流出企业的现金 注意力集中在企业的现金状况 企业可能盈利丰厚却短缺现金【例如，销售很 多但钱收不回来，此时损益表记为“销售收入 ”，只是“观念上”的收入】 不像资产

8、负债表和损益表，现金流量表独立于 会计方法 The IRS（美国国税局） uses accounting income to compute tax, so accounting rules have a second order effect on cash flows through taxes Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 12 GPC Cash Flow Statement, for the Year ending Dec 31, 2xx0 Net income23.4 + Depr

9、eciation30.0 - Increase in acc rec(10.0) - Increase in invent(30.0) + Increase in acc rec12.0 *Total cash from operations25.4 - Invest in new ppe(90.0) *Cash flow invest activities(90.0) -Div paid(10.0) + Inc short-term debt94.6 *Cash flow from financing84.6 *Chng cash & mkt securities20.0 2*0应为2*1

10、rec应为pay Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 13 GPC Balance Sheet at Dec 31, 2xx1 2xx02xx1Change Assets Cash & mktble secs100.0 120.0 20.0 Receivables50.0 60.0 10.0 Inventories150.0 180.0 30.0 *Current assets300.0 360.0 60.0 Pp&e400.0 490.0 90.0 Acc depreciation(100.0)

11、 (130.0) (30.0) *Net pp&e300.0 360.0 60.0 *Total Assets600.0 720.0 120.0 Liabilities & Equity Accounts payable60.0 72.0 12.0 Short-term debt90.0 184.6 94.6 *Current liabilities150.0 256.6 106.6 Long-term debt150.0 150.0 - *Total liabilities300.0 406.6 106.6 Paid-in capital200.0 200.0 - Retained earn

12、ings100.0 113.4 13.4 *Shareholders equ300.0 313.4 13.4 Liab + Shareholder600.0 720.0 120.0 GPC Income Statement for Year Ending 2xx1 Sales revenues200.0 Cost of goods sold(110.0) *Gross margin90.0 Gen sell, & admin exp(30.0) *Operating income60.0 Interest expense(21.0) *Taxable income39.0 Income tax

13、(15.6) *Net income23.4 Allocation to divs(10.0) *Chg retained earn13.4 GPC Cash Flow Statement, for the Year ending Dec 31, 2xx0 Net income23.4 + Depreciation30.0 - Increase in acc rec(10.0) - Increase in invent(30.0) + Increase in acc pay12.0 *Total cash from operations25.4 - Invest in new ppe(90.0

14、) *Cash flow invest activities(90.0) -Div paid(10.0) + Inc short-term debt94.6 *Cash flow from financing84.6 *Chng cash & mkt securities20.0 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 14 财务报表的注释 解释所用会计方法 资产和负债的细节 股权结构的细节 运营变化的证明文件 表外项目【不显示在资产负债表中的金融 合约】 Copyright 2009 Pearson

15、 Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 15 Reviewing Published Accounts Usual order feel quality of the paper, review pictures read Chairs report review accounts read notes produce estimates Correct order produce estimates read notes compare your numbers & reports read Chairs report check pictu

16、res, etc. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 16 Reasons for this Ordering Form your own unbiased expectations independently of the latest financial report Notes to accounts give the numbers more precise meaning Compare your numbers and the firms to tell you where to f

17、ocus when reading the chairs report. Look for omissions and conflicts Compare the PR-Departments public image with your (now) informed investors view Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 17 3.3 市场价值与账面价值 并非所有资产和债务都记录在资产负债表中，并且 另一些资产存在价值低估或高估的情况 无形资产如专利可能会记录在资产负债表中，但是品牌忠

18、 诚度、技术诀窍、训练有素的忠诚雇员的价值并没有反映 在账面上。商誉价值可能反映在账面上（一家公司的收购 价减去其账面价），但是很快就失去了与其市场价的联系 ，原因是会计折旧和市场波动。 一些或有债务（contingent liabilities）如【担保】诉讼按 常规是不反映在财务报表或只在财报注释中揭示。 会计师们开始对养老金资产价值进行盯市。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 18 3.4 收入的会计度量和经济度量 经济学家对净收入的度量 股东得到的净现金流加现有权益市值的变化 会计师对净

19、收入的度量 收入减支出减税 如果会计师对所有资产、债务的价值盯市， 以上两种度量相等。但现实并非如此。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 19 例： GPCs accounting net income was plus $23,400,000 in 2001 Assume the total market value of the stock fell from $200,000,000 to $187,200,000 from year 2xx0 to 2xx1. We saw earlie

20、r that the cash dividend to shareholders was $10,000,000. The economic income in year 2xx1 was minus $2,800,000 收入的会计度量和经济度量可能相当不同 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 20 3.5股东收益率与账面净资产收益率 Recall our definition in Chapter 2 of the holding period return, and compare this

21、 with the economic measure of income %4 . 1 200$ 8 . 2$ Re Million Million StartPrice comeEconomicIn StartPrice ndsCashDivideStartPriceEndPrice turn This is the Total Shareholder Return（股东收益 率） Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 21 Traditionally, corporate performance

22、 has been measured by Return on Equity, ROE（净资产收益率） %8 .7 300$ 4 .23$ Million Million rsEquityShareHolde NetIncome rsEquityShareHolde IncomeAccounting ROE Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 22 净资产收益率与股东收益率之间没有必然 的一致性。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing

23、as Prentice Hall 23 3.6 Analysis using Financial Ratios 虽然会计原则和金融原则不同，但公开的 会计资料还是能提供企业财务状况的线索 。 Five aspects of a firms performance: 盈利能力 资产周转率 财务杠杆 流动性 市值 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 24 Profitability %6 . 7 2/4 .313300 4 .23 sEquityrStockHolde NetIncome (RoE)E

24、quity on Return %1 . 9 2/720600 60 alAssetsAverageTot EBIT (RoA) Assetson Return %30 200 60 Sales EBIT (RoS) Saleson Return Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 25 Asset Turnover Times 3 . 0 2/720600 200 Assets Total Average Sales Turnover Asset Times 7 . 0 2/180150 110

25、 Inventory Average Sold Goods ofCost Turnover Inventory Times 6 . 3 2/6050 200 sReceivable Average Sales Turnover sReceivable Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 26 Financial Leverage Times 9 . 2 21 60 ExpenseInterest EBIT EarntInterest Times %57 720 6 .406 Assets Tota

26、l Debt Total Debt （利息保障倍数） Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 27 Liquidity Times 7 . 0 6 .256 180 sLiabilitieCurrent sReceivableCash Earnt Interest Times Times 4 . 1 6 .256 360 sLiabilitieCurrent AssetsCurrent Current （速动比率） Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publ

27、ishing as Prentice Hall 28 Market Value 6 . 0 4 .313 20.187 Shareper ValueBook Shareper Price Book Market to 0 . 8 4 .23 2 .187 Shareper Earnings SharePer Price Earnings toPrice （市盈率） Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 29 比率比较 不同的立场 Shareholder Employee, Management, o

28、r Union Creditor Predator（猎食者）, Customer, Supplier, Competitor, Trade Association Benchmarks Other companies ratios The firms historical ratios Data extracted from financial markets Sources Dun & Bradstreet, Robert Morris, Commerce Departments Quarterly Financial Report, Trade Associations Copyright

29、 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 30 Relationships Amongst Ratios It is sometimes valuable to decompose ratios into sums, differences, products and quotients of other ratios. Many such schemes start with: TurnoverAsset * saleson Return * Assets Sales Sales EBIT Assets EBIT Ro

30、A Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 31 Ratio Analysis Limitations 比率分析能帮你找到有利可图的关注点，但也可能 会误导你 寻找进一步的证据 好的长期目标可能使比率很难看。“比率化管理” 可能与长期利益不一致。 同行业的企业是有差异的，不同比率可能都是好的 ，比率分析不能教条化。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 32 Comment: 谨记：财务报表根据会计标准和传

31、统编制 ，并不完全满足金融分析的需要 仔细、理解之后去用还是能获得很多有用 信息。 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 33 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 34 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 35 NodebtHalfdebt EBIT120,000120,000 Interest050,00

32、0 Taxable Income120,00070,000 Tax 48,00028,000 Net Income72,00042,000 Equity1,000,000500,000 ROE7.20%8.40% Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 36 NodebtHalfdebt EBIT120,000120,000 Interest075,000 Taxable Income120,00045,000 Tax 48,00018,000 Net Income72,00027,000 Equit

33、y1,000,000500,000 ROE7.20%5.40% Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 37 EconomicROAROEROE ConditionsNodebtHalfdebt Bad Year1%0.6%-4.8% Normal Year12%7.2%8.4% Good Year30%18.0%30.0% Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 38 Copyright 2009 Pear

34、son Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 39 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 40 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 41 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 42 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

35、Publishing as Prentice Hall 43 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 44 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 45 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 46 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prenti

36、ce Hall 47 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 48 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 49 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 50 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 51 GPC Finan

37、cial Statements, Years xxx1 - xxx3 (Nearest $ Million) (Percent of Years Sales) Year xxx0 xxx1xxx2xxx3xxx1xxx2xxx3 Income Statement Sales200240288100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cost of goods sold11013215855.0%55.0%55.0% Gross margin9010813045.0%45.0%45.0% Selling, general & admin. expenses30364315.0%15.0%15.0

38、% EBIT60728630.0%30.0%30.0% Interest expenses30456415.0%18.8%22.2% Taxes121196.0%4.5%3.1% Net income1816139.0%6.7%4.7% Dividends5542.7%2.0%1.4% Change in shareholders equity131196.3%4.7%3.3% Balance Sheet Assets: Cash & equivalents101214176.0%6.0%6.0% Receivables4048586924.0%24.0%24.0% Inventories50

39、60728630.0%30.0%30.0% Property, Plant & equipment500600720864300.0% 300.0% 300.0% Total Assets6007208641037360.0% 360.0% 360.0% Liabilities: Payables3036435218.0%18.0%18.0% Short-term debt120221347502110.7% 144.6% 174.2% Long-term debt15015015015075.0%62.5%52.1% Total Liabilities300407540704203.7% 2

40、25.1% 244.3% Shareholders equity300313324333156.3% 134.9% 115.7% Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 52 (Nearest $ Million) Year xxx0 xxx1xxx2xxx3 Income Statement Sales200240288 Cost of goods sold110132158 Gross margin90108130 Selling, general & admin. expenses303643

41、EBIT607286 Interest expenses304564 Taxes12119 Net income181613 Dividends554 Change in shareholders equity13119 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 53 Balance Sheet Assets: Cash & equivalents10121417 Receivables40485869 Inventories50607286 Property, Plant & equipment500

42、600720864 Total Assets6007208641037 Liabilities: Payables30364352 Short-term debt120221347502 Long-term debt150150150150 Total Liabilities300407540704 Shareholders equity300313324333 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 54 (Percent of Years Sales) Yearxxx1xxx2xxx3 Incom

43、e Statement Sales100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cost of goods sold55.0%55.0%55.0% Gross margin45.0%45.0%45.0% Selling, general & admin exp.15.0%15.0%15.0% EBIT30.0%30.0%30.0% Interest expenses15.0%18.8%22.2% Taxes6.0%4.5%3.1% Net income9.0%6.7%4.7% Dividends2.7%2.0%1.4% Change in equity6.3%4.7%3.3% Copyright

44、2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 55 Balance Sheet Assets: Cash & equivalents6.0%6.0%6.0% Receivables24.0%24.0%24.0% Inventories30.0%30.0%30.0% Property, Plant & equipment 300.0% 300.0% 300.0% Total Assets360.0% 360.0% 360.0% Liabilities: Payables18.0%18.0%18.0% Short-term deb

45、t110.7% 144.6% 174.2% Long-term debt75.0%62.5%52.1% Total Liabilities203.7% 225.1% 244.3% Shareholders equity156.3% 134.9% 115.7% Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 56 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 57 Copyright 2009 Pearson Educati

46、on, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 58 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 59 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 60 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 61 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing

47、as Prentice Hall 62 GPC Financial Statements, Years xxx1 - xxx3 (Nearest $ Million) (Percent of Years Sales) Yearxxx0 xxx1xxx2xxx3xxx1xxx2xxx3F(sales)? xxx4 Income Statement Sales200240288100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N/A346 Cost of goods sold11013215855.0%55.0%55.0% Yes190 Gross margin9010813045.0%45.0%45.0

48、% N/A(Yes)156 Selling, general & admin. expenses30364315.0%15.0%15.0% Yes52 EBIT60728630.0%30.0%30.0% N/A104 Interest expenses30456415.0%18.8%22.2% No87 Taxes121196.0%4.5%3.1% N/A7 Net income1816139.0%6.7%4.7% N/A10 Dividends5542.7%2.0%1.4% N/A3 Change in shareholders equity131196.3%4.7%3.3%7 Balanc

49、e Sheet Assets: Cash & equivalents101214176.0%6.0%6.0% Yes21 Receivables4048586924.0%24.0%24.0% Yes83 Inventories5060728630.0%30.0%30.0% Yes104 Property, Plant & equipment500600720864300.0% 300.0% 300.0% Yes1037 Total Assets6007208641037360.0% 360.0% 360.0% N/A(Yes)1244 Liabilities: Payables30364352

50、18.0%18.0%18.0% Yes62 Short-term debt120221347502110.7% 144.6% 174.2% No Long-term debt15015015015075.0%62.5%52.1% No Total Liabilities300407540704203.7% 225.1% 244.3%N/A904 Shareholders equity300313324333156.3% 134.9% 115.7%N/A340 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 6

51、3 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 64 GPC Financial Statements, Years xxx1 - xxx3 (Nearest $ Million) Yearxxx0 xxx1xxx2xxx3xxx4 Income Statement Sales200240288346 Cost of goods sold110132158190 Gross margin90108130156 Selling, general & admin. expenses30364352 EBIT607286104 Interest expences30456487 Taxes121197 Net income18161310 Dividends5543 Change in shareholders equity131197 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hal