NALYST：EVERYTHINGFLOWS：THEFLOWOFFUNDSSTAGNATIONANDDIVERGENCE1105

1、november 1, 2012 issue no: 12/28 european economics analyst economics research everything flows: the flow of funds, stagnation and divergence facing stagnation at the area-wide level the euro areas flow of funds suggests stagnation at the area-wide level and divergence between parts of the euro area

2、. both features seem likely to persist for as long as ecb policy finds transmission to the peripheral economies problematic and structural reforms, especially in the periphery, take time to pay off. huw pill +44(20)7774-8736 goldman sachs international kevin daly +44(20)7774-5908 goldman sachs inter

3、national area-wide picture captures disinflationary forces private-sector deleveraging (i.e., running a financial surplus) and public- sector austerity (i.e., reducing the public-sector deficit) require, through the logic of financial balances measured in the flow of funds, a rising current account

4、surplus. it is also likely to result in the public-sector balance being weakened by stagnation, while the current account improves through stagnation. overall, balance sheet adjustment has implied stagnation, which itself complicates the process of completing the desired adjustment. while a germany

5、versus spain comparison captures divergence the fact that deleveraging and austerity apply to different degrees between core and periphery contributes to divergence. a comparison of germany and spain captures this. in germany, a falling private-sector surplus has supported activity. this has also li

6、mited the area-wide fall in activity. in spain, a substantial swing in the private sectors financial balance has ended what was substantial debt accumulation. but it has not yet delivered much outright deleveraging. the private sectors financial surplus in spain is still smaller than that in germany

7、. bank balance sheets reflect and reinforce wider deleveraging the mirror image of private-sector deleveraging and economic stagnation is shrinkage in bank balance sheets. yet banks have also spurred on private-sector deleveraging through their own attempted deleveraging and tightening of credit con

8、ditions. as the flow of funds also shows, the (non- dirk schumacher +49(69)7532-1210 goldman, sachs we expect them to remain below 3% in 2013 inflation forecasts 7.0 % 6 5 % yoy euro area headline cpi gs forecast 6.0 4 uk headline cpi 3 5.0 2 4.0 germany france italy 1 0 3.0 0304050607 spain 08 0910

9、1112 -1 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 source: goldman sachs global ecs research. goldman sachs global economics, commodities and strategy research source: eurostat, ons, goldman sachs global ecs research. % 11 november 1, 2012 main forecasts economic forecasts european economics an

10、alyst gdp (annual % change) consumer prices (annual % change) current account (% of gdp) budget balance (% of gdp) 20112012(f)2013(f)20112012(f)2013(f)2011 (f) 2012(f)2013(f)2011(f) 2012(f) 2013(f) euro area germany france italy spain uk switzerland sweden denmark norway* poland czech republic hunga

11、ry 1.5 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.9 0.8 2.5 4.3 1.7 1.7 -0.5 1.0 0.2 -2.2 -1.3 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.0 3.7 2.8 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 -0.7 -1.7 1.9 1.1 1.9 1.1 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.1 4.5 0.2 2.6 2.7 1.3 4.3 1.9 3.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 3.5 2.3 2.7 0.4 1.3 2.6 1.0 3.8 3.3 5.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 0.7 1.

12、3 1.7 1.3 2.8 1.7 4.0 0.0 5.7 -2.2 -3.2 -3.5 -1.9 16.0 7.0 5.6 14.5 -4.3 -2.7 1.4 0.5 4.3 -2.0 -1.5 -2.4 -4.1 14.7 6.7 5.6 16.7 -4.5 -2.2 1.7 -0.1 3.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -3.6 14.5 5.7 4.1 16.2 -4.1 -2.6 0.9 -4.1 -1.0 -5.2 -3.9 -8.9 -7.8 -0.3 0.3 -1.9 - -5.1 -3.1 1.5 -4.0 -1.0 -4.8 -3.2 -7.6 -6.1 -0.2 0.

13、3 -3.9 - -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -3.2 -0.7 -4.0 -2.2 -6.2 -6.6 -0.1 0.5 -3.1 - -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 *mainland gdp growth source: goldman sachs global ecs research. interest rate forecasts 3 month horizon6 month horizon12 month horizon currentforwardforecastforwardforecastforwardforecast euro area uk sweden switzer

14、land us canada australia japan 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 3m 10y 0.2 1.5 0.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.7 1.2 1.8 3.2 3.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.8 1.2 1.9 3.1 3.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.0 0.8 0.3 2.0 1.3 2.0 3.2 3.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 2.0 1.3 1

15、.6 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 3.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.9 0.9 2.3 1.7 2.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 2.1 1.3 2.3 3.0 4.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.7 0.1 0.6 0.4 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 2.1 0.9 2.5 2.1 2.5 0.0 0.9 0.3 2.3 1.5 2.5 2.8 4.3 0.4 1.2 close october 29, 2012, mid-rates for major markets. we are curre

16、ntly using december 2012, march 2013 and september 2013 contracts for 3-month forward rates. source: goldman sachs global ecs research. goldman sachs global economics, commodities and strategy research % 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 3 12 november 1, 2012 european calendar focus for the week ahead european ec

17、onomics analyst lack of market pressure since july has stalled the spanish request monetary policy announcements will come from the boe and ecb on thursday. we expect some further easing in the form of qe from the bank of england (see the uk economics analyst, published tomorrow, for an update on ou

18、r views). we do not expect any change from the ecb, as the wait continues for spains request for official sector support. we expect that some degree of market pressure will be necessary to push the spanish government to make such a request. 8.00 7.00 6.00 draghi: and believe me, it will be enough. l

19、ondon, 26/07/12 services pmis are released on monday and tuesday across europe. we expect the euro area final estimate to print in line with the flash (46.2), signifying a small 1.00 0.00 jan-12 spanish yield spread over german bunds (2yr) mar-12 may-12 jul-12sep-12 increase from 46.1 in october. ec

20、onomic releases and other events source: reuters, goldman sachs global ecs research. countrytime (uk) economic statistic/indicatorperiodforecast* mom/qoqyoy previous mom/qoqyoy emea-map relevance fri 2nd november uk italy france germany norway euro area 09:30 09:45 09:50 09:55 10:00 10:00 purchasing

21、 managers index - construction pmi - manufacturing pmi - manufacturing pmi - manufacturing unemployment rate pmi - manufacturing oct oct oct oct oct oct 49.5 45.7 43.5 45.7 +2.4% 45.3 5 4 4 5 mon 5th november sweden spain uk uk 08:30 09:15 09:30 09:30 pmi - services pmi - services purchasing manager

22、s index - services hbos house prices oct oct oct oct 47.3 40.2 52.2 0.4%mom 1.2% 3m/yr 4 tues 6th november uk09:30industrial productionsep0.0%mom1%0.5%mom1.2% uk italy france germany euro area euro area germany 09:30 09:45 09:50 09:55 10:00 10:00 11:00 manufacturing output pmi - services pmi - servi

23、ces pmi - services pmi - composite pmi - services factory orders sep oct oct oct oct oct sep +0.1%mom 46.2 1.1% 1.1%mom 44.5 46.2 49.3 45.8 46.2 1.3%mom 1.2% 4.8% 5 4 5 wed 7th november spain switzerland switzerland norway germany euro area 09:00 09:00 09:15 10:00 11:00 11:00 industrial output forei

24、gn exchange reserves harmonised cpi manufacturing output industrial production retail sales sep oct oct sep sep sep chf429.5bn +0.7%mom +0.9%mom 0.5%mom +0.1%mom 3.2% 0.3% +5.6% 1.4% 1.3% 5 4 5 thurs 8th november switzerland uk uk uk euro area 07:45 09:30 09:30 12:00 13:45 unemployment rate trade in

25、 goods trade balance monetary policy committee meeting ends ecb meeting oct sep sep nov nov 0.50%, 425bn 0.75% 2.9%(sa) 9.8bn 4.2bn 0.50%, 375bn 0.75% 4 1 fri 9th november germany france sweden norway italy 08:00 08:45 09:30 10:00 10:00 harmonised cpi industrial production industrial production cons

26、umer prices (cpi-ate) industrial production oct sep sep oct sep +0.1%mom +1.5%mom +0.4%mom +1.1%mom +1.7%mom +2.1% 0.9% +3.2% +1.1% 5.2% 5 3 5 source: bloomberg, gs global ecs research. economic data releases in calendar are subject to change at short notice. complete calendar available via the port

27、al https:/ * in the case of the pmis, the forecast is simply the flash estimate where available (flash pmis are published by markit for the euro area, germany and france 1-2 weeks before the end of the reference month). goldman sachs global economics, commodities and strategy research 13 november 1,

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