NORTHAMERICANCOAL：NOTPULLINGTRIGGERONREMAININGBUYS...WITHCOALPRICESATTROUGH1008

1、top picks buy buy buy h o ld buy deutsche bank markets research north america united states industrials metals maintaining below consensus view ev /eb itd a (x)7 .36 .55 .5 we see some earnings risk in 4q but our 12 ebitda ests are trimmed just 4%. meanwhile, 13 ebitda ests are reduced 21%, and as a

2、 result, our 12-13 eps estimates are 3% and 7% below the street. c o n so l en ergy (c n x .n ),u sd 3 0 .0 5 2012e eps (u sd ) 1 .2 9 2013e 1 .7 5 buy 2014e 3 .0 1 3q reporting season to again draw attention to debts/covenants, mine closures, restructuring charges, capex, recap needs and asset sale

3、s p/e (x) ev /eb itd a (x) 2 3 .3 7 .9 1 7 .1 7 .4 1 0 .0 6 .0 net debt to 12 ebitda averages 3.8x in the sector, with a range of 1x for arlp to 6x for aci. however, debt maturity profiles are favorable, liquidity w alter en ergy (w lt.n ),u sd 3 2 .4 6 positions are largely adequate and most covena

4、nts are fine in the near-term. one exception may be wlt which appears challenged to meet its covenant tests without w/c gains, capex cuts or cost reductions using our 12-13 forecasts. on curtailments, aci, jrcc pt multiples pushed higher given cyclical leverage coal equities are trading at 7x 12 (2)

5、 btu on leverage to asia recovery and potential cost/currency benefits; and (3) wlt given premium hcc assets and costs. risks include global demand, operating costs, supply, fx rates and coal prices. _ deutsche bank securities inc. all prices are those current at the end of the previous trading sess

6、ion unless otherwise indicated. prices are sourced from local exchanges via reuters, bloomberg and other vendors. data is sourced from deutsche bank and subject companies. deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus, investors should be aware that

7、 the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures and analyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012. 2 october 2012 metals

8、commodity price forecasts . 6 thermal coal outlook . 7 coking coal outlook. 15 coal seasonality. 18 coal costs . 19 risks . 20 coal company comparisons . 21 arlp: investment thesis.25 anr: investment thesis .29 aci: investment thesis.33 cnx: investment thesis .37 jrcc: investment thesis.41 btu: inve

9、stment thesis.45 wlt: investment thesis .49 appendices.52 na coal sector comparative valuation charts. 52 page 2deutsche bank securities inc. 2 october 2012 metals benchmark used: steam coal = newcastle fob; met coal = australian spot hcc fob; capp = central appalachia 12,500 btu, 1.2 so2 coal; napp

10、 = northern ppalachia 13,000 btu, =3.0 =2.3 =1.3 =2.5 na =2.0 =3.5 na na na na =2.0 na na =3.0 na na =4.8 =0.63 =6.0 =3.8 na na 505 na na na na 21.0 4.3 2.1 5.4 na 4.1 4.6 na na na na -0.6 na na 1.2 na na 2.4 0.9 3.6 3.9 na na 655 na na na na source: deutsche bank and company information deutsche ba

11、nk securities inc.page 5 2 october 2012 metals commodity price forecasts figure 7: coal supply-demand model 20082009201020112012e2013e us coal (m tons) us production % change us demand % change export imports net exports inventories days of inventory 1,172 2% 1,122 -1% 82 34 47 199 65 1,076 -8% 997

12、-11% 59 23 37 245 90 1,086 1% 1,051 5% 82 19 62 234 81 1,096 1% 999 -5% 107 13 94 225 82 1,016 -7% 887 -11% 127 10 117 236 97 1,051 3% 970 9% 115 11 104 213 80 source: mccloskeys, ame mineral economics, bp, ceic, imoa, usgs, cru, u.s. energy information administration and deutsche bank figure 8: db

13、commodities price estimates summary 28-sep-12spot20082009201020112012e2013elt steam coal ($/tonne) calendar year japanese fiscal year 84 84 108 125 85 71 91 98 122 130 119 115 102 97 82 82 met coal ($/tonne) calendar year140249172195289210183150 oil met coal = premium hard coking coal; capp = centra

14、l appalachia 12,500 btu, 1.2 so2 coal; napp = northern appalachia 13,000 btu, 3.0 so2 coal; ib = illinois basin 11,800 btu, 5.0 so2 coal; prb = powder river basin 8,800 btu, 0.8 so2 coal; wbit = uinta basin 11,700 btu, 0.8 so2 source: platts, bloomberg finance lp, cru and deutsche bank estimates pag

15、e 6deutsche bank securities inc. 2 october 2012 metals our nav is calculated under a dcf methodology (9.4% wacc with 10.7% ke and 6.4% post-tax kd, and a 1.0% terminal growth rate based on our knowledge of the asset base and expectations of long-term growth). risks key upside/downside risks include

16、a acceleration/pullback in global economic growth, acceleration/slowdown in energy consumption, further coal inventory decrease/increase at utility companies, direction of energy prices, changes in energy and/or carbon policy changes and consequent ramifications in switching fuels. these dynamics te

17、nd to set the stage for global coal supply and demand fundamentals, and ultimately on the dynamics unfolding in the us. also, mining companies can face geologic and operational obstacles. other risks are associated with the direction of input costs, fiscal regime and mining legislation, and the succ

18、essful execution of mining operations. further risks stem from contract pricing in place vis-vis the direction of spot prices. deutsche bank securities inc.page 41 0 0 4 0 10 2 october 2012 metals as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely

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