欧洲光伏行业协会全球太阳能光伏市场预测研究报告

1、2014global market outlookfor photovoltaics until 2014table of contents1 introduction 42 historical pv market development 63 pv market outlook 7 a. the pv market in 2009 7 b. market forecasts until 2014 8 c. regional distribution 9 d. detailed global market outlook until 2014 10 e. europe 11 belgium

2、11 bulgaria 12 czech republic 12 france 13 germany 14 greece 15 italy 15 portugal 16 spain 16 uk 17 f. 2010-2014 forecasts and the “set for 2020” targets 19g. world leading markets20 japan 20 usa 20h. emerging markets21 china 21 india 21 other emerging markets 224 global production capacity outlook

3、23 a. regional distribution of production capacity in 2009 23 b. cagrs across the pv value chain 24 c. technology development 255 conclusion: when supply meets demand 26disclaimerplease note that all historical figures provided in this brochure are valid at the time of publication and will be revise

4、d when new and proven figures will be available. all forecast figures are based on epia knowledge at the time of publication.introduction1the epia global market outlook for photovoltaics (pv) from 2010 to 2014 is a keypublication for the pv sector. based on an internal analysis of market data from i

5、ndustry members, national associations, government agencies and electric utilities, the figures presented in this edition were discussed during epias annual workshop on market potential and production capacity held in rome in march 2010.for years, epia has put a great deal of effort into observing a

6、nd analysing pv markets. thanks to its intimate contact with key players of the industry, national pv associations and its deep knowledge of pv policies and support schemes, epia market figures are a credible and authoritative source of short-term market forecasts as well as long-term scenarios. wit

7、h the massive growth of the market, data reliability is becoming a crucial issue: industry players, electric utilities and policy makers must count on reliable data to orientate their decisions, launch investments or plan legislation updates. epia is advocating for the availability of quick, transpa

8、rent and reliable market information and therefore encourages the adoption of effective monitoring systems.europe maintains leadership, with germany as the worlds largest marketwith a cumulative pv power installed of almost 10 gw, including around 3.8 gw installed in 2009, germany remains the worlds

9、 largest pv market although the recently announced feed-in tariff (fit) cuts are expected to significantly affect the development of the national industry in the long run. in the mid-term, italy appears as one of the most promising markets with an additional 730 mw already in 2009. besides high sun

10、irradiation, the new conto energia, which is expected to be announced in spring 2010, would continue to support the strong momentum of the italian market. czech republic shows an important growth in 2009 with 411 mw installed but, due to unsustainable support schemes, the market is expected to shrin

11、k significantly in 2011. thanks to a strong political willingness, belgium made its entry into the top 10 markets with 292mw installed in 2009. due to a revision of the financial support scheme early 2010, the market is, however, expected to slow down slightly in 2010. france follows with185 mw inst

12、alled in 2009, with an additional 100 mw installed but not yet connected to the grid. in spite of huge potential, this clearly demonstrates the importance for france to solve grid connection issues in order to allow the market to develop. in spain, the set-up of a market cap in 2008, combined with t

13、he effects of the financial crisis, constrained the market to a very low 69 mw installed in 2009. finally, greece, portugal and to some extent the u.k. are showing interesting potential for growth in2010 and beyond.japan and usa as leading markets outside europeoutside europe, japan positions itself

14、 as the third largest market with 484 mw and shows an important growth potential thanks to favourable political support. the usa market finally took off significantly with around 475 mw installed in 2009 and appears as a potential leading market for the coming years. china and india are also expecte

15、d to boom in the next five years with huge market potentials and impressive projects in the pipeline. canada and australia showed significant market development in 2009 and are open the way to the development of new markets. brazil, mexico, morocco, taiwan, thailand, south africa and many others are

16、 also seen as promising countries.a bright future for pvthe 2010 world pv market could reach between 8.2 and 12.7 gw of new installations under the moderate scenario and the policy-driven scenario respectively. in a policy- driven scenario, the world annual pv market could reach up to 30 gw in 2014

17、based, of course, on favourable conditions established by policy makers, regulators and the energy sector at large.the announced world-wide pv production capacity would also be sufficient to cover the expected evolution of the market in the coming five years. however the capacity increases will have

18、 to be scrutinised in the coming years to ensure that the effects of the financial crisis on investments will not reduce investments in new capacities.the pv market forecasts presented in this publication demonstrate a bright future for the pv market and industry in the coming 5 years.historical pv

19、market development 2from the first space applications to the gw planned systems, more than 40 yearshave passed. the last decade has seen pv technology emerging as a potentially major technology for power generation in the world. the robust and continuous growth experienced in the last ten years is e

20、xpected to continue in the coming years. by the end of 2008, the world cumulative pv power installed was approaching 16 gw and today, almost 23 gw are installed globally which produce about 25 twh of electricity on a daily basis.europe is leading the way with almost 16 gw of installed capacity in 20

21、09, representing about 70% of the world cumulative pv power installed at the end of 2009 while japan (2.6 gw) and the us (1.6 gw) are following behind. china makes its entr y into the top 10 of the world pv markets and is expected to become a major player in the coming years.figure 1 - historical de

22、velopment of world cumulative pv power installed in main geographies25 ,0 0 020,0 0 015 ,0 0 0mw10,0 0 0chinausarest of the worldjapaneu5 ,0 0 002000200120022003200420052006200720082009china1930 45 55 64 68 80100145 305usa139 168 212275 365 479624 831 1,173 1,650row763 825 913 1,0001,0441,051 1,235

23、1,4221,8702,347japan 318 452 637 860 1,132 1,4221,7081,9192,1492,633eu189286 422633 1,319 2303 3,282 5,088 10,340 15,958the annual market has developed from less than 1 gw in 2003 to more than 7.2 gw in 2009 in spite of the difficult financial and economic circumstances. after a 160% cagr (compound

24、annual growth rate) growth from 2007 to 2008, the pv market in2009 continued to grow another 15% in 2009. while germany reclaimed its leadership, many other markets have started to show significant development. south korea and, in particular spain, saw to the contrar y their installation figures dro

25、pping.figure 2 - evolution of the world annual pv market 2000-20098 ,0 0 07,0 0 06 ,0 0 05 ,0 0 0mw4 ,0 0 03 ,0 0 02 ,0 0 01,0 0 00india por tugal g reece rest of eu spain chinasouth koreafrancerest of the worldbelgiumczech republicusa japan italy20 0 0 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 0 6 20 07 20

26、0 8 20 0 9 g ermanypv market outlook 3a. the pv market in 2009despite the economic crisis, the pv market has continued to grow by almost 15% in2009 compared to 2008 and the total power installed in the world raised by 45% up to 22.9 gw.this progression in 2009 is mainly due to the development of the

27、 german market which almost doubled in one year from 2 gw in 2008 to around 3.8 gw installed in2009, representing more than 52% of the world pv market.besides the development in germany, other countries continued their progression in2009. the italian market installed 730 mw, making it clearly the se

28、cond largest market world-wide.the market also developed significantly outside europe with 484 mw installed in japan and 477 mw (including 40 mw of off-grid applications) in the usa.czech republic and belgium made impressive progress in 2009, with 411 mw and292 mw installed, respectively. given the

29、size of those countries and the fast pv deployment, it is likely that this development cannot be sustained at such a pace in the coming years.major developments were seen in france with 285 mw installed, 185 mw of which were already connected. canada and australia are emerging while south korea fail

30、ed to repeat the numbers of 2008.in the south of europe, portugal and greece, two promising markets with huge potential, have delayed their kick-off, waiting for a more favourable context.the world leader in 2008, spain, went down from 2,600 mw to only 69 mw in 2009, experiencing the combined effect

31、s of the financial crisis and the heavy regulatory market cap which was set up in 2008.china appears as a new player in 2009 with about 160 mw installed, and india with around 30 mw. in these countries, the long-term development of the market has,nevertheless, still to be confirmed.figure 3 - world

32、and european pv markets in 2009 in mw47 73 029241148 45 ,6187.2 gwg ermany 3 , 8 0 05.6 gwthe european union represented 5.6 gw or 78% of the world pv market in 2009. and in europe itself, the german market clearly dominates with 68 % of the eu market. the emergence of italy as a major market for pv

33、, combined with the ramp-up of france and the impressive growth of the czech republic and belgium, compensated the slowdown of the spanish market.one major change in 2009 is the emergence of new markets outside europe, with canada and australia starting to develop while japan and the usa show both a

34、 significant potential in becoming new gw markets in the coming years.b. market forecasts until 2014as evidenced in the epia set for 2020 study (www.setfor2020.eu), pv could provide up to 12% of the eu electricity demand by 2020 provided specific boundary conditions are met, and be competitive with

35、other electricity sources in as much as 76% of the eu electricity market by 2020, in the absence of any form of external price support or subsidy.in the current pre-competitive phase, pv market deployment is, to a large extent, dependent on the political framework of any given country. support mecha

36、nisms are defined in national laws. the introduction, modification or fading out of such support schemes have profound consequences on pv markets and industries.in march 2010, epia completed an extensive data collection exercise from among a highly representative sample of the pv industry, electric

37、utilities, national associations and energy agencies.based on the cross-checking of data and the consolidation of complementary market projection methods, epia has derived 2 scenarios for the future development of the pv industry.the moderate scenario: this scenario is based on the assumption of a b

38、usiness- as-usual market behaviour which does not assume any major enforcement of existing support mechanisms but takes into account a reasonable follow-up of the fit aligned on the systems prices.the policy-driven scenario: in this scenario, epia expects the follow-up and/ or introduction of suppor

39、t mechanisms, namely feed-in tariffs, accompanied by a strong political will to consider pv as a major power source for the coming years. this must be accompanied with a removal of non-necessary administrative barriers and a streamlining of grid connection procedures.under these two scenarios, the s

40、tudy analyses, on a country basis, the historical development of the pv market, existing support policies, their attractiveness and expected developments, administrative procedures in place, national renewable energy objectives and the potential for pv.figure 4 - moderate and policy-driven scenarios

41、35,00030,00025,000epia moderate epia policy-driven historical datamw20,00015,00010,0005,0000in the moderate scenario, the european market could grow up to 6 gw in 2010 and stagnate in the coming 2 years (depending on the czech market evolution), followed by a rebound in 2013. in the policy-driven sc

42、enario however, it could install as much as 8.7 gw in 2010 and up to 13.5 gw in 2014.for 2010, epia expects the world pv market to grow to around 8.2.gw under the moderate scenario. under the policy-driven scenario, it could reach around 12.7 gw. epia foresees the world market to reach 13.7 gw by 20

43、14 under the moderate scenario which would mean a cagr of 14% over the period 2009-2014. for the policy-driven scenario, the annual market is expected to reach 30 gw with a cagr of33% over the period 2010-2014.c. regional distributionfigure 5 - regional pv distribution in the world (policy-driven sc

44、enario)30,0 0 025 ,0 0 020,0 0 0mw15 ,0 0 0chinausarest of the worldjapaneu10,0 0 05 ,0 0 00d. detailed global market outlook until 2014figure 5 - regional pv distribution in the world (policy-driven scenario)country type2007200820092010e2011e2012e2013e2014ebelgiumepia moderate1850292140160200220240

45、epia policy-driven200220240260280bulgariaepia moderate02715406080100epia policy-driven20100150200250czechrepublicfranceepia moderate epia policy-driven epia moderate35141111461859001001301501751,000425450475500500540580620660epia policy-driven7008601,1001,2001,300germanyepia moderate1,1072,0023,8003

46、,0003,0003,0004,0004,000epia policy-driven4,5004,0004,0005,0005,500greeceepia moderate21136100125145165190epia policy-driven115250400450585italyepia moderate703387309009501,0001,1001,200epia policy-driven1,2001,2501,5001,7502,000portugalepia moderate1450327075808590epia policy-driven100150180220250spainepia moderate5602,60569