外盘资料PPT学习教案

1、会计学1 外盘资料外盘资料 第1页/共29页 Poor Corn on Corn yield this past summer in Illinois/Iowa make a convincing argument against continuous corn planting. Compared to a annual corn/bean rotation a continuous corn on corn planting schedule gives up nearly 50% of expected revenue. 第2页/共29页 YOY Bean acreage increas

2、e of 250k acres YOY Corn acreage increase of 700k acres 第3页/共29页 第4页/共29页 Acreage will remain unchanged versus last season, at 18.7 million hectares. About 80% will be first soybeans and 20% will be double-cropped (after wheat or barley) About 53 % is already planted, in line with last season. Estim

3、ated yield is 2,6 ton/ha, 7% below the trend and 3% below the last 5 year average yield. Crop is projected at 48 mmt, 13% lower than last season. 第5页/共29页 第6页/共29页 第7页/共29页 第8页/共29页 第9页/共29页 第10页/共29页 第11页/共29页 第12页/共29页 第13页/共29页 Crush Share by State 第14页/共29页 第15页/共29页 Continued strength in the re

4、al, expansion of MT crush and rapid increases of interior freight (rail/truck) to Santos/Tubarao will lead to a reduction in availability of MT beans. Will create more competition for exports from the south (PGUA QSc1; Trade Price(Last) 29/10/2010; 20,851 Line; QSc1; Trade Price(Last) 29/10/2010; 12

5、26 Price BRL Bsh .123 16 16,5 17 17,5 18 18,5 19 19,5 20 20,5 21 21,5 22 22,5 23 23,5 24 24,5 25 25,5 Price USc Bsh 1/8 800 840 880 920 960 1000 1040 1080 1120 1160 1200 1240 1280 1320 1360 1400 1440 1480 1520 1560 agosetoutnovdezjanfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdezjanfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovd

6、ez Q3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010 USDREAIS 第17页/共29页 第18页/共29页 YTD US Sales 19.5mmtYTD US Shipments 9.36mmt 第19页/共29页 第20页/共29页 demand down 1.8mmt yoy; the reduction coming in the form of reduced meal imports. Middle East/North Africa Increased bean crush in S

7、audi Arabia, Syria & NAF as well as higher overall meal demand sees MEQ growth up 200kmt yoy (in the form of bean imports). SE Asia - China New crush capacity in Vietnam as well as steady growth in demand sees MEQ growth up 900kmt. 第21页/共29页 第22页/共29页 第23页/共29页 第24页/共29页 第25页/共29页 第26页/共29页 第27页/共29

8、页 Bleak macro outlook but no double dip OECD austerity amidst unemployment AND slowing CHINA We discard demand crisis scenario that “breaks” the market below marginal cost Lack of strong mineral demand momentum beyond seasonal pre-winter restocking needs Backhaul business remains extremely scarce an

9、d has opened up recurrent full china ballast execution This is recurrently priced in nearby carry and redundant risk of over-covering through short period fixtures MARKET IS STRUCTURALLY OVERTONNAGED FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHS PMAX MARKET IS RANGEBOUND (18K 24K) AND MORE INSULATED FROM CAPES WILD MOV

10、ES MARKET CYCLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHORT 2-3 DAYS PUSHES EXECUTION VOLATILITY IS GREATER THAN IN 03-08 . ON AVERAGE 2.4% DAILY MOVES ON SPOT SPOT MARKET REMAINS RANGEBOUND (15K-20K) THROUGHOUT 2011: USG-NPRC $47-55 RANGE OR SANTOS-NPRC $41-48 OR UP+BB-NPRC $47-54 NEARBY CURVES RECURRENTLY DEVELOPS INTO CARRY WHILE BACK END INVERSE NARROWS BUT STILL ALWAYS ABOVE SPOT MARGINAL REPLACEMENT (13K/14K FOR NEWBUILD) WHICH WILL POSTPONE MARKET RECOVER FURTHER AS WE DONT SEE MAJOR SCRAPPING