英文世界信息技术发展走势展望

1、Looking to the world trend of it developmentFirst, the world of electronic information industry development in the new features:It has become the main driving force behind economic growthInformation technology (it) is currently the fastest growing, most influential high technology, its development a

2、nd application of information technology to the national economy, national defense and social life, have a profound impact change.To the U.S. economy as an example .In the United States, to play a leading role in economic growth. Over the past five years, real growth in it field in the U.S. economy,

3、 accounting for one-fourth of the shares. Information industry in the share of the entire economy in a significant growth in the economy is also growing in importance. 1985, the U.S. information industry in the economy as a proportion of 4.9%, with the PC at the office and the family starts to sprea

4、d, in 1990 this ratio rose to 7.5%,1998 years to 8.2%. At the same time, prior to 1994, it industries and their contribution to economic growth in the economy proportional share, and since 1994, its contribution to its economy is almost twice the share.Further intensifying market competition, acquis

5、itions, alliances, cooperation against new targets In the trend of global economic integration, countries with emerging industry enterprises acquisitions and alliances, with the aim of occupying the market; Integration and the integration of technology in the market trend, a computer network, teleco

6、mmunications networks and cable television networks integrate the three networks trends, resulting in different industries between enterprises acquisitions, alliances and cooperation, to open up new business areas; and particularly noteworthy is that todays acquisitions, and alliances to increase ma

7、rket share is no longer the sole purpose of joint development of new technologies, new systems and the development of standards has become the acquisitions, alliances and the important objectives of common characteristics. To vie for the high-tech advantages of electronic information, government inv

8、olvement and intervention for enhancing In electronic information technology is developing rapidly today, Governments have regarded it as the promotion of national economic development and national security of the core technology in its development of policies and financial support in the internatio

9、nal economic and diplomatic struggle for the protection and organizations directly involved in the formulation and implementation of electronic monitoring of high-tech strategic development plan marked by the development of e-government it intentions and technical advantages for the 21st century, ma

10、intain and enhance the economic competitiveness and national defense strength, strong intentions.Second, in the early 21st century world of electronic information industry development prospects .The 21st century, mankind will enter a new era - the era of the knowledge economy. Global information tec

11、hnology and the era of economic globalization will be the main development trend. March 26, 1997, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reached 40 representative sides Information Technology Agreement, the commitment in January 1, 2000 to computers, computer software, communications equipment, semicond

12、uctors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and scientific instruments tariffs, and to allow some developing countries in 2005 will be above information products tariffs to zero. October 1997, the WTO in Geneva, the second phase of the Information Technology Agreement seminar will be ready televis

13、ions, video recorders, radios, manufacturing equipment, slab monitors, capacitance manufacturing equipment, audio equipment and other consumer electronic products are included in the Information Technology Agreement zero tariff product list, But in preparation January 1, 2002 until these products lo

14、wer their tariffs to zero. Information Technology Agreement signed with the production of information products will enable the globalization of markets, increased global competition between manufacturers of information products, information products Cost performance rising.In the global information

15、and the promotion of economic globalization, the 21st century information industry will promote the development of the global economy become one of the pillar industries.Microelectronics technology and product market will continue rapid developmentWorld PC and network-related products, digital mobil

16、e communications equipment, digital audio video products and the rapid increase in demand for motor vehicles, electronic equipment, makes global semiconductor market prospects are very good. According to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Corporation (WSTS) forecast 1998 2002 Global semiconduc

17、tor sales will reach an average annual growth rate in global semiconductor sales will reach 15.5%,2002 223.49 billion U.S. dollars. The microprocessor sales of 14.1 billion U.S. dollars from 1999 to 2002 of 24.5 billion U.S. dollars; Digital signal processors (DSP) sales of 4.4 billion U.S. dollars

18、from 1999 to 2002 of 9.8 billion U.S. dollars; From the application perspective, the computer semiconductor market will account for about 50% of the entire semiconductor market share, and consumer semiconductor market share is second only to the computer, but communications semiconductor market is g

19、rowing quickly in 2002, communications semiconductor market will exceed consumer semiconductor marketHigh-performance computers will be of networking, low-cost technology development Future, computer technology, network technology and related technology development will be areas of the world focus o

20、n the development of one of its markets will continue to expand. Technically, the computer has the following major trends.1. High-performance technology. Future parallel computer operating speed will become ever faster. It is expected that in 2004, large-scale parallel computer will be 100 trillion

21、times in succession. 2010 around ten times the parallel computer will be developed. In addition, superconductors, quantum, optical, biological computer technology in the 21st century will have a breakthrough progress.2. Networking and popular. Computer networking to computer infiltrate all aspects o

22、f human life, will change peoples lifestyles and working methods. Computer master degrees through the use of increasingly high, Mainly frequently speed in an increasingly fast and functional growing chip (now using Pentium III and K7) and the corresponding more advanced software, images, graphics, l

23、anguage processing capabilities and access to more powerful (currently, and some computer companies such as Legend has launched Internet PCs). Computer technology and communications, audio video technology integration, plug-in computer and home appliances and industrial equipment of all kinds will b

24、ecome ubiquitous in computer components.3. Humanization. Computers will be increasingly Understanding, people will be very natural way (oral, written word, gesture, facial expression) and the computer world. Computers will gradually transition from the current data processing knowledge.4. with the t

25、ype of low-cost, thin. With the rapid development of computer networks and online resources can be shared increasingly rich and rapidly available. Thus, the only basic networking equipment and operating system software on the Internet could meet needs. No allocation of hugeand complex computer softw

26、are. Thin type of computer will become the future development trend. However, the thin-client Sales in the past two years have been around in a relativelylow level.Communications facilities will be a structural changeCommunications, computers and microelectronics are the three pillars of the informa

27、tion society in the promotion of information technology, communications equipment market will continue to expand. According to the Yearbook of World Electronic Data 1999/2000projections, the world of communications products sales value of 211.7 billion U.S. dollars from 1998 to 2000 of 219.1 billion

28、 U.S. dollars.Current telecommunications infrastructure is undergoing structural changes the main changes are as follows.First, the multimedia communications changes Experiencing is a telecommunications network from circuit to packet switching network to exchange network revolution, voice communicat

29、ions business from telecommunications to multimedia communications expansion. In the early 21st century operational broadband integrated services digital network (B-ISDN) will be based on a fibre to the IP-based ATM, it can transmit voice, data, video (including high-definition television signals) s

30、ignals to provide IP telephony, video program, interactive games, remote videoconferencing, e-commerce, teamwork and telemedicine applications. At the same time, will be used at the beginning of the 21st century in the third generation mobile communication system through the use of more bandwidth, m

31、ore efficient transmission and intelligent network technology will also provide broadband multimedia services (voice transmission, in addition to providing Internet access, high-bandwidth data communications capability, global roaming and other services). At present, some telecommunications companie

32、s have launched mobile phones with Internet capabilities.Second, the network bandwidth will be increased. It is expected that in 2000, with the introduction of intensive channel distribution and other optical processing technology will enable a fiber-optic bandwidth over 1Tbps or several TBPS by 200

33、3 may reach 20Tbps. According to the forecast, compared with the current level in 2002 Wan (WAN) traffic will increase 300%600%.Third , cable, telephone and wireless mobile telephone structural changes. In the past wireless mobile telephone cable telephone only complement, but in recent years to 50% o