synovateAPP调研建议书

1、prepared forprepared byjob numberdateproposal: photocopy paper market profile (china)appsynovate business consulting oct 9th, 20042 synovate is one of the worlds leading research firms, having over 4,000 employees in 84 offices across 52 countries. synovate business consulting is the business intell

2、igence and strategy consulting division of synovate, providing intelligence-based strategic advice to major corporate clients, with 16 offices across asia.synovate business consulting is driven by an experienced team of over 60 full-time professionals across 16 major asia-pacific markets, supported

3、by a network of highly qualified researchers in each country, all of whom have local industry knowledge and expertise.the philosophy of synovate business consulting is to provide cost-effective services with the highest degree of customisation. services include:market opportunity analysismarket prof

4、iles and sizingcompetitive intelligencecorporate intelligenceproduct intelligencecompetitor trackingmarket feasibility & market entry strategyproduct launchpartner evaluation & selectiondistribution & value chain consultingsynovate business consulting3project backgroundapp, a global leading paper in

5、dustry player is now seeking to better understand greater shanghai (shanghai, jiangsu & zhejiang) photocopy paper market & trend, identify key competitors market shares & competitive advantages/disadvantagesidentify opportunities for future developmentsynovate business consulting specializes in mark

6、et profiles concentrating on market sizing/forecasting, competitive analysis, distribution analysis and strategic recommendations, with a focus on chinas hardware and industrial materials industryin the following proposal synovate business consulting aims to clearly outline the approach, methodology

7、, deliverables, timing and fees of this project:4project scopegeographic coverage shanghaizhejiang, focusing on hangzhou ningbo wenzhoujiangsu, focusing on nanjing wuxicustomers coveragecustomer by channels (tbd): direct sales hypermarket super market other retail stores online/tele suppliers othert

8、imeframe2001-2003forecasting 2004-2007proposed subject areasphotocopy paper high end mid end low end5research methodologyanalysis by synovate business consultingexecutive interviews with:key competitorsdistributorsretailerscustomerstrade organizations and industry expertsprimary research:in-depth bu

9、siness interviewssecondary researchcompetitors websitesindustry publicationsstatistical yearbooksbusiness newsbusiness directoriessynovate bc databasesany published paper products reports10-15% of data80-85% of dataavailable data and information from app5% of data6research methodology (full resource

10、 coverage)primary research (80-85% data)synovatedatabaseofficial statisticscompetitorinterviewscustomer interviewsdistributors/associationinterviews3rd party data providerssecondary research（1015data）achieve sales information of main competitors, which represent most market share, and data on market

11、 sizes by product segment, customer segment, distribution channel &, geographic market are coveredachieve customer behavior information from customer interviews to verify supply side dataachieve quantitative/qualitative information from industry associations/distributors e.g. key competitors sales,

12、customer demand & distribution channel share, etc achieve macro economic data (e.g. customer number/distribution, etc.), main competitors background information, market trend, etc competitorcustomersdistributor/associationsecondary researchcompetitor informationcustomer segmentationdistributionmacro

13、 datamain sourcesecondarysourcenon-sourcelegend:customer behavior7research methodology (primary research)1- senior officials of industry organizations we would suggest conducting approximately n=3-5 interviewsexamples include: china paper association2- competitor interviews we would suggest conducti

14、ng approximately n=30-35 interviews with managers and key staff of major foreign and local competitorsin-depth executives interviews with: analysis and recommendations by synovate business consultants4- commercial customer interviews we would suggest conducting approx n=20 interviews with commercial

15、 customers3- distributor/ retailer interviewwe would suggest conducting approx n=60-65 interviews with distributors/retailers5- commercial customers interviewswe would suggest conducting approx n=1,200 telephone interviews with commercial customers8research methodology telephone interview samplescho

16、olotherby size (employee number)by industryto determine sample size/allocation, followings factors are taken into consideration:-industry, main impact demand on photocopy paper-size, main impact - purchasing pattern-ownership, - which may have different purchasing pattern6 cities will be covered in

17、this research shanghai, hangzhou, ningbo, wenzhou, nanjing & wuxilargemediumsmallgovernmentbanktrading & servicenon sub-segmentationnon sub-segmentation9research methodology telephone interview sample (cont)shanghaihangzhouningbowenzhounanjingwuxisamples will be allocated evenly in each city for com

18、parison purposebank & government are not segmented by size schools are segmented by elementary schools, middle schools & universitiestotal 1,200 interviews10we estimate at least 110 executive-level interviews & 1,200 (customer) telephone interviews across the greater shanghai region (covering shangh

19、ai, jiangsu and zhejiang) are needed to obtain the required competitor, customer and marketplace insights, for a complete and comprehensive analysis.synovate business consulting does not quote its fees or structure the research process based on a sample size. the number of interviews presented in th

20、e previous page only provides an indication of the amount of time and effort required to obtain the necessary information for analysis.the actual number of interviews may increase depending on the level of difficulty of information collection and the accuracy of findings.face-to-face interviews11fac

21、e-to-face interviews with industry experts would be conducted by our synovate staff.a semi-structured discussion format will be used to encourage interviewees to talk around the subject, rather than answering yes/no questions to elicit detailed qualitative information and insight.the purpose of the

22、industry interviews is for our consultants to have discussions with the full spectrum of persons and organisations involved in the photocopy paper and associated industries, who have information that would help us to compile our analysis of the market.in-depth interviews would be conducted with rele

23、vant market players, industry experts, customers, and government officials to yield insights for strategy development. this phase will generate the bulk of information feeding into market size estimates, segmentation, competitor intelligence, and insights on market direction.finding and talking to t

24、he right people is the key, for example: competitor interviews general managers sales, marketing & purchasing managers suppliersindustry interviews distributors hypermarket & other retailers commercial customersthird party interviews industry associationsface-to-face interviews (cont.)12the methodol

25、ogy below will be applied to determine the list of companies to be interviewedselection of interviewees is based on:types of companies - top players in each product segment, as defined by volume and value. interview targets within those companies - more than one person may be interviewed in each com

26、pany, to secure and cross-check information required.1. identify universe of suppliers in each product segment2. preliminary research to shortlist key players3. interview with senior management in key companies4. 1 additional interview with other personnel in the same company5. counter-check claims

27、with third-party interviewsidentification, shortlist and verification of interviewees4.2 identify new interview targets, e.g. other major playersinterviewee selection methodology13interview skillssynovate has systematic internal interview skill trainingsecuring interviews direct setting up interview

28、s mainly for customer/distributor interviews dummy report mainly for competitor/distributor/association interviews third party reference mainly for competitor/distributor/association interviews oversea confirmation use synovate oversea office to help set up interviews multiple interviews targets in

29、one single organization e.g. sales/marketing/planning mngr. elicitation skill indirect questions avoid sensitive questions information exchange touch in-depth topics and get sensitive information without questions “stupid questions/obvious wrong comments” induce interviewees to defend with sensitive

30、 information (always sales figure/market share/growth rates) other psychological no break questioningfatigue tacticsnon project related information sharingother14desk research conducted within china, would be used to gather background information and to develop preliminary knowledge of market size,

31、market structure, segmentation, growth rates, competitors, distribution and value chains, etc.it will also be used to identify face-to-face interviews amongst appropriate organizations in each region.all primary research reports and other information and data purchased by synovate for the purpose of

32、 this project will be made available to app.sources used will include (not exhaustive): local and international business news media specialized press, such as sports industry journals published industry reports statistical reports and other government publications, such as establishment census or su

33、rvey company annual reports and other publicity materials reports from banks and financial analystsdesk research15environmental scan & market analysis environmental scan & market analysis - this stage involves the assessment of greater shanghais photocopy paper industrymarket overviewdetermine marke

34、t & technology overview & trends such as: growth drivers, new product or product substitutionmarket sizeidentify 2003 photocopy paper market size (value $ and volume)by region & cityby price range, also by city/region (details tbd after the preliminary research) high end mid end low endby distributi

35、on analysis (refer to distribution analysis)by customer segment (refer to customer analysis)key brands identification identify key brands (those with more than 15 metric tons sales monthly) in each city (approximately 10 brands in each city) identify basic paper supplier of each brand identify (esti

36、mated) net price & retail sales price of key brands identify key distributors of key brands identify market shares (value & volume) of key brandsenvironmental scan & market analysis16market sizing methodology (sample)add up top players revenue/volume/market sharedcbacbadegfhiidentify top players in

37、each segmentsource: competitor interviews; customer interviews; distributor interviews; industry associations; secondary researchcollect top player datarevenue: xxxsales vol.:market share: xx%growth rate: xx%segment share: xx% however, market share is always very difficult for interviewee to estimat

38、e, especially for fragmented segment.following techniques are applied: cross check/double check (by multi interviews) share external information with interviews to help make exact estimation (during interview) logic check (during interview)xx%virgin pulpgrass pulpmixed pulpothertotal size model(cove

39、r 4 customer segments)dcbaxx%each segment size model(e.g. virgin pulp)each competitors total revenueeach competitors single segment revenuesizemarket sizing by supply side (covering product segment/customer segment/forecast)dcbaxx%forecast modeleach competitors new added volume/value(market share of

40、 top players)(market share of top players)(a+b+c+d)/xx%size(a+b+c+d)/xx%forecast(a+b+c+d)/total revenue of top players(market share of top players)17market sizing methodology (sample)market sizing by demand side (covering product segment/forecast, and second tier city market sizes will be mainly fig

41、ured out from demand side supporting by competitor information)key: meaningful segmentation according to industry structure (different customer types and sizes) based on expert interviews + representative sampling of budget / expenditure. e.g. (average customer spend within each segment x total esti

42、mated universe of customers in each segment) + (estimated size of other segments)estimated total spend (per annum)us$12.8minterviews with key customers per tier/class/typeinterviews emphasis will be on tier iii and ii customers that generate high valueall figures here are hypothetical numbersmarket

43、size modelforecast modelkey: growth of total estimated universe of customers in each segment & change of average customer spend (customer behavior) will draw the market growth18taihwaeuromonitorliptontaiwan teamanufacturersassociationkingcari-meitetrapakkuangchuan20.014.913.513.113.012.011.211.00510

44、1520product manager, source e: over $x; about $y.”average credibility from top-of-mind response.marketing manager, source f: $xaverage credibility from top-of-mind response.marketing manager, source f: $xaverage credibility from top-of-mind response.manager, marketing department, source a: $xunsure

45、estimate with low credibility.industry publication, source b: market size value: $x; above average credibility as methodologies are based on trade association interviews, trade press, company research, trade interviews and estimates.final estimate: us$12.8 m*us$mchairman, source d: $x, based on data

46、 on import/export/local production and manufacturer sales. high credibility as industry expert.senior manager, source c: total market size: $x -y, based on in-house research. high credibility as estimates are verified with source cs own sales figures.business development manager, source g: $xaverage

47、 credibility, since the company is believed to have under-reported (for tax evasion) sales.source a source bsource c source dsource e source f source g source h* hypothetical numbersnote: breadth of column indicates relative credibility between respondents estimatesmarket sizing methodology (sample)

48、market sizing by executive opinion (inputs from various sources are compared and a consensus reached to determine the final figures. )19market sizing methodology & approach (cont.)market sizing by supply modelmarket sizing by demand modelgap analysis & adjustment (covering product segment/forecast)u

49、s$150 mus$170 mgap: us$20 m some customers consider low end customers as high end products even if after instruction some regional players are missed for they are only selling products in relative developing areas gap analysis (sample)adjustment (sample)us$ 161 mnote: forecast gap will also be proce

50、ssed in the same waymarket sizing by executive opinionus$165 m20report structure market sizinggrass pulpmixed pulpvirgin pulpmarket sizing by product segment0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2,297555373348211378240proportion of sales value (000 us$)sample outputa4a3b4b58k16kother21report structure ma

51、rket sizinghigh endmid endlow endmarket sizing by price0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%a42,297555373348211378240proportion of sales value (000 us$)sample outputa3b4b58k16kother22report structure market sizingmarket size forecast by productmarket size forecast by distributionunit: million usdunit: m

52、illion usdsample output23report structure market sharebrand cbrand bbrand asample outputmarket share in a424market potential2,5073,2086,3628,65110,86215,18238,66433,44234,9195167912,065010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002002200312004jiang suzhe jiangshanghai0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2002200

53、320040%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%5%17%11%7%77%26%22%60%69%4%2%1%the largest photocopy paper market is shanghai but the other markets grow faster in chinareport structure market sizingsample output25report structure market sizingmarket potential vs. market concentrationgrowth potentialcompetitio

54、n level (low)(high)(high)segment attractivenessnote: bubble size represents total volume sales of the segment in 2003market potential represents forecasted aag growth rates for the 2003-2007 periodchengdu is attractive segments with high growth potential and low competition level. sample output26dis

55、tribution analysisdistribution analysisanalysis of distribution channel description of main supply chain routes by each city & region type of intermediaries involved (agents, retailers, distributors etc.) evolution of the supply chain - new entrants: manufacturers, distributors, etc - trends towards

56、 a concentration (vertical or horizontal integration) or fragmentation of the supply chain margin analysis which are the most important channels? why?27photocopy paper manufacturersend usersdealerdistributormargin: 15-20%average price: $41,600margin: 5%average price: 44,680distribution share: 70%mar

57、gin: 5%price: $46,000d i s t r i b u t i o nshare: 20%margin: 7-15%price: $48,050distribution share: 10%margin: 5-10%price: $45,660distribution channel (value-chain) analysis distribution channel analysis - example of deliverablesample output28distribution channel (value-chain) analysis suppliers1st

58、 level distributor1%bcdea3%1%6%2nd level distributor10%4%fagent6%7%2%2%4%4%3%6%1%2%4%suppliers1st level distributor2%bcdea10%2%23%2nd level distributor35%20%fagent25%25%1%1%24%20%10%23%2%1%24%government infrastructure project customerssample outputdistributormanufacturersupplierdirect salesprice str

59、ucture of photocopy paper (southern china)30%10%5%business owner25%first tier citiessecond tier cities29competitive intelligence competitive intelligence identify the key brands in each city (refer to environmental scan & market analysis ) identify sales volume/value of identified key brands in each

60、 city profile top competitors by province (totally no more than 10 to be profiled)location of factoriessales information, by- product- product segment- customer segment- geographic market historic sales performance (2000-2003) key distributors key advantages/disadvantages cost structure of no less t