国际金融BalanceofPayment

1、INTERNATIONALFINANCIALMANAGEMENTEUN / RESNICKFourth EditionChapter Objective:This chapter introduces the structure, interpretation and adjustment of balance of payments3,4Chapter Three, FourThe Balance of Payments CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers

2、$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9In 2004, the U.S. imported

3、 more than it exported, thus running a current account deficit of $665.9 billion. CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Ot

4、her Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9During the same year, the U.S. attracted net investment of $611.2 billionclearly the rest of the world found the U.S. to be a good place to invest. CreditsDeb

5、itsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Ov

6、erall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, these numbers would balance each other out. CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Inves

7、tment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9In the real world, there is a statistical discrepancy. CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2

8、Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Ac

9、count$2.851.9Including that, the balance of payments identity should hold:BCA + BKA = BRA($665.9) + $611.2 + $51.9 = ($2.8) CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($2

10、48.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9QPExchange rate $SD CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.

11、4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9QPAs U.S. citizens import, they supp

12、ly dollars to the FOREX market.Exchange rate $SD CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Bal

13、ance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9QPAs U.S. citizens export, others demand dollars at the FOREX market.Exchange rate $SD CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balan

14、ce on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9QPSDAs the U.S. government sells dollars, th

15、e supply of dollars increases.S1Exchange rate $ CreditsDebitsCurrent Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1)3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account($665.9)Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5)5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8)6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Bala

16、nce on Capital Account$611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance$2.8 Official Reserve Account$2.851.9Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issuesSource: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issuesSource: IMF International Financial Statistics Yea

17、rbook, various issuesSource: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issuesSource: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issuesReasons of Imbalance/ DisequilibriumnCyclical DisequilibriumnIncome DisequilibriumnStructural DisequilibriumnMonetary DisequilibriumnAcci

18、dental DisequilibriumCapital Outflow (-)Capital Inflow (+)U.S.Euro Area$IOUsU.S.Euro AreaIOUsMd Figure 18-2: Internal Balance (II), External Balance (XX), and the “Four Zones of Economic Discomfort”Fiscal ease(G or T )Exchangerate, EXXII Figure 18-3: Policies to Bring About Internal and External Balance13Devaluation that results in internal and external balance24Fiscal expansion that results in internal and external balanceredeem them. Figure 18-4: U.S. Macroeconomic Data, 1964-1972Figure 18-4: ContinuedFigure 18-4: ContinuedFigure 18-4: Continued Table 18-1: Inflation Rates in European Cou