增速5年来最低水平A股能否延续上涨行情

1、Even as Chinas economy has faltered, growing at its lowest pace in more than five years in the third quarter, the stock market has surged. Investors, it seems, are betting that the weak economy will force the central bank to pump cheap money into the financial system. 尽管中国经济步履蹒跚今年第三季度的增速是5年多以来的最低水平但

2、其股市仍大幅上涨。投资者似乎在押注经济疲弱将迫使中国央行向金融体系注入廉价资金。 Other forces are at work. The launch of the Hong Kong-Shanghai stock connect, which will give foreign investors access to the Shanghai market, has stoked bullishness, amid expectations that foreign inflows will lift demand for shares once the pilot programme

3、gets under way. 其他因素也起了作用。“沪港通”项目（该试点项目将允许外国投资者进入上海股市）的出台刺激了做多情绪，人们预计，一旦该项目实施，外国资金的流入将会提振内地股票的需求。 Chinese equities have outperformed every leading market for the past three months. The CSI 300, an index of large companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, is up 13 per cent in that time, way ahead of

4、Indias 0.5 per cent gain, the distant second best in Asia. The index hit a near 20-month high this month before retreating slightly. 中国股市过去3个月的表现比任何一个主要市场都强。由上海和深圳股市的大型上市公司组成的沪深300指数(CSI 300)在这3个月里上涨了13%，遥遥领先于亚洲涨幅第二的印度股市，后者上涨了0.5%。沪深300指数本月在创出将近20个月来的新高后小幅回落。 A disconnect between stocks and the wide

5、r economy is nothing new for China, but the relationship has usually been reversed. After hitting an all-time high in late 2007, the CSI 300 lost ground for four of six years between 2008 and 2013, even as the economy boomed. Even after recent gains, the index remains nearly 60 per cent below its 20

6、07 peak. 股市与宏观经济脱节对中国来说不是什么新鲜事，两者之间的关系往往是反相关的。在2007年末创出纪录高点以后，沪深300指数在从2008年到2013年的6年里有4年都是下跌，尽管其间中国经济蓬勃发展。即便在经历了最近的上涨之后，该指数仍比其2007年的峰值低近60%。 Several factors explain the strong performance of mainland equities, known as “A-shares”, in recent months. Some see similarities to the performance of US and

7、 European markets since the financial crisis, where loose monetary policy boosted equity and bond markets as the real economy stagnated. 被称为“A股”的中国内地股票近几个月来表现强劲，背后可能有多个原因。一些人认为，它与美国和欧洲市场自金融危机以来的表现相似在欧洲和美国，随着实体经济停滞不前，政府出台的宽松货币政策推升了股市和债市。 “In the US in 2010-12 the economy was in bad shape but the stoc

8、k market rose. Its the exact opposite of the A-share market of years past,” said Wu Weizhi, chairman of Rabbit Fund, a Shenzhen-based hedge fund. 中欧瑞博投资管理股份有限公司(Rabbit Fund)董事长吴伟志表示：“在2010年至2012年的美国，经济低迷，但股市上涨。过去几年的A股市场正好相反。”中欧瑞博是总部位于深圳的一家对冲基金。 “A lot of Chinese A-share investors are fairly optimist

9、ic about the stock market because they see this kind of change coming. The trend of falling interest rates is already quite clear. Its just a matter of how low theyll go.” “许多中国A股投资者都对股市相当乐观，因为他们认为这种变化即将来临。利率日益走低的趋势已非常明显。现在仅仅是利率将会有多低的问题。” Other investors point to the influence of a weak property mar

10、ket. The dismal performance of equities in recent years helped fuel a real estate bubble. But property prices have fallen for four consecutive months and attitudes towards real estate as an asset class have begun to shift. 其他投资者提到了楼市低迷造成的影响。近几年股市的低迷表现帮助催生了房地产泡沫。但房价已连续4个月下跌，房地产作为一个资产类别，投资者对其的态度已开始发生变

11、化。 “From the perspective of asset allocation, the demand for funds from the real economy is gradually declining, so money will circulate in secondary markets,” said Gui Jiang, founder of Simpleway Asset Management. “But real estate has already hit a cyclical high point, so the stock market looks lik

12、ely to become the main destination for funds.” 信璞投资管理有限公司(Simpleway Asset Management)创始人归江表示：“从资产配置的角度看，实体经济的资金需求在逐步下降，因此资金会在二级市场内循环。但房地产已经达到周期性高点，因此股市看上去很可能会成为资金的主要目的地。” Others cite the impending launch of the stock connect programme, which will allow Hong Kong and foreign investors to buy a net Rm

13、b13bn ($2.1bn) in 568 selected Shanghai-listed stocks a day, up to a total of Rmb300bn. The start date, originally planned for this month, is now uncertain. 还有人提到了即将开通的“沪港通”项目的影响。在该项目下，香港和外国投资者可投资568只选定的沪市股票，日投资额度为130亿人民币（合21亿美元），总额度为3000亿元人民币。“沪港通”项目原计划于本月开通，现在开通时间待定。 Some offshore investors have b

14、een looking to pre-empt the stock connect by using existing channels to add exposure to China and exploit price gaps among dual-listed companies. That has helped push the average premium for Hong Kong-listed over mainland-listed shares down from 11 per cent in July to 2 per cent yesterday. 一些海外投资者一直

15、在试图抢在“沪港通”项目开通前有所行动，他们利用现有渠道来增加对中国内地的投资敞口，并抓住沪港两地上市公司的A股与H股价差牟利。这在一定程度上导致H股相对于A股的平均溢价从7月份的11%收窄至昨日的2%。 Indeed, demand for foreign ETFs tracking the mainland market has been so strong that some providers have been forced to limit or halt new subscriptions as they exhaust their quotas under the QFII p

16、rogramme. 实际上，投资者对追踪中国内地股市的海外ETF（交易所交易基金）的需求极为强劲，以至于一些ETF提供商在用光它们的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)配额后被迫限制或暂停新的申购。 Much depends on whether market expectations for further monetary easing turn out to be correct. The Peoples Bank of China last week injected Rmb200bn in liquidity into the banking system via loans to mid

17、size banks, but it has so far eschewed aggressive easing in favour of targeted measures. 股市能否继续上涨，在很大程度上取决于市场所预期的货币政策进一步放松是否会成为现实。中国央行上周通过向中型银行发放贷款，向银行业体系注入2000亿元人民币流动性，但它迄今仍避免采取激进的宽松措施，而是更倾向于采取有针对性的举措。The CSI 300 fell 0.5 per cent on Tuesday, despite data showing gross domestic product growing slightly faster than expected. This suggests that any news that impl