HRM教案第3章VIP

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2、 承办单位：美华管理人才学校职业经理mba整套实战教程千本好书免费下载 学校网址: date teachingcontentchapter 3: hr panning objectives1. define the concept of hr planning2. understand the purpose of hr planning3. identify stages in human resource planningkey issuesmethods of hr planningcases & discussedquestions1. case: general motors

3、 corporation fails to downsizing. question: how to solve the problem?2. transitional matrixhomework1. what is human resource planning?2. what kinds of action decisions are available to an organization when there is a surplus of labor or a labor shortage?3. what factors would affect your choice of an

4、 hr planning system?4 .what factors would influence your choice of forecasting methods?5. compare and contrast different types of methods of human resource forecasting and demand.reference1. gary dessler, a framework for human resource management, 3nd edition, china machine press, 2007 2. liao shany

5、u，human resource management，tsinghua university press, 2006lead incase：general motors corporationgm has undergone several hiring freezes over the last few years, and by 2005, the average age of its workforce will be 48. in fact, a full 50 percent of gm works will be able to retire within the next th

6、ree years. however, based upon labor demand forecasts, gm also has estimated that it needs to reduce its workforce by close to 20 percent, and hence rather than lay works off right now, it can afford to wait and let natural attrition and retirement processes perform the needed downsizing. while this

7、 is a fortuitous development in terms of solving the labor surplus problem, it does create another issue, because gm is responsible for the pension and health care costs of all these new retirees. relative to its japanese rivals, gms pension and health care costs run $1,200 more per vehicle. having

8、forecast this problem with pension and health care costs, the manufacturer has roughly three years to come up with a solution to this problem.detailsremarkobjectives of chapter² the concept of hr planning.² the purpose of hr planning.² the relationship between hr planning and strategy

9、.² stages in human resource planninguseful websites² :/ /home/index.shtmol² :/ employment-studies.co.uk/summary² :/dictionary.bnet /definition/human+resource+planning.htm² :/ entrepreneur /tradejournals/pub/4147.html² :/work911 /planningmaster/faq/indexhrplannin

10、g.htmlead incase: general motors corporation² gm has undergone several hiring freezes over the last few years, and by 2005, the average age of its workforce will be 48. in fact, a full 50 percent of gm works will be able to retire within the next three years. however, based upon labor demand fo

11、recasts, gm also has estimated that it needs to reduce its workforce by close to 20 percent, and hence rather than lay works off right now, it can afford to wait and let natural attrition and retirement processes perform the needed downsizing. ² while this is a fortuitous development in terms o

12、f solving the labosurplus problem, it does create another issue, because gm is responsible for the pension and health care costs of all these new retirees. relative to its japanese rivals, gms pension and health care costs run $1,200 more per vehicle. having forecast this problem with pension and he

13、alth care costs, the manufacturer has roughly three years to come up with a solution to this problem.outline of chapterapplicants complete application formselection tools like tests screen out most applicants supervisors and others interview final candidates to make final choiceemployment planning a

14、nd forecastingrecruiting builds pool of candidatescontents1introduction to human resource planning1.1 definition of hrphuman resource planning is both a process and a set of plans. it is how organizations assess the future supply of and demand for human resources. (john m. ivancevich, human resource

15、 management, ed 8, china machine press,p131)1.2 connotation of hrp² rigorous hr planning links people management to the organization's mission, vision, goals and objectives, as well as its strategic plan and budgetary resources. a key goal of hr planning is to get the right number of people

16、 with the right skills, experience and competencies in the right jobs at the right time at the right cost.² the process by which management ensures that it has the right personnel, who are capable of completing those tasks that help the organization reach its objectives.² human resource pl

17、anning is an effort to anticipate future business and environmental demands on an organization and to meet the hr requirements dictated by these conditions.² human resource planning enables the organization to connect and direct talent management activities to ensure the organization has the ri

18、ght people in the right places at the right time to achieve its goals and objectives. 1.3the purpose of hr planning.the purpose of hrp is to anticipate and respond to needs emerging within and outside the organization, to determine priorities, and to allocate resources where they can do the mos

19、t good. although hrp means different things to different people, general agreement exists on its ultimate objective-namely, the wisest, most effective use of scarce or abundant talent in the interest of individual and the organization. 2. human resource demand and supply forecaststages in human reso

20、urce planningforecasts of labor demandforecasts of labor surplus or shortagegoal setting and strategic planningprogram implementation and evaluationforecasts of labor supply2.1 forecasting demand methodthe attempts to determine the supply of and demand for various types of human resources to predict

21、 areas within the organization where there will be future labor shortages or surpluses.statistical methods are excellent for capturing historic trends in a companys need. judgment method: when important events occur in labor market, rely on subjective judgment of experts.under right conditions, stat

22、istical method gives more precise than subjective judgment method.so, companies use a balanced approach that includes both statistical methods and judgment method. 2.1.1 modeling and multiple-predictive techniquesmodeling and multiple-predictive techniques related to many factors to employment such

23、as sales, gross national product (gnp), and discretionary income. or they mathematically model the organization and use simulations with methods such as markov models and analytical formulations such as regression analysis. 2.1.2regression analysis is a mathematical procedure that predicts the depen

24、dent variable on the basis of knowledge of factors known as independent variables.2.1.3markov analysis involves developing a matrix to show the probability of an employees moving from one position to another or leaving the organization.movement of employees during 2005-2006travelagency 2006level gai

25、n loss 2005levelofemployee of employeesi 200 60 40 220ii 500 40 50 490iii 300 35 45 290probabilities of transitiontravel 2006 loss retained prbability agency retentioni 200 40 160 160/200=0.8ii 500 50 450 450/500=0.9iii 300 45 255 255/300=0.85how to forecast personnel demand first, forecast revenues

26、, then estimate size of staff required to achieve this volume, while accounting for: projected turnover, quality and skills of your employees; decisions to upgrade the quality of products or services or enter into new markets; technological and other changes resulting in increased productivity; and

27、the available financial resources.2.1.4trend analysis means studying a firms employment levels over a period of years to predict future needs. 2.1.5ratio analysismeans making forecasts based on the ratio between (1) some causal factor, like sales volume, and (2) number of employees required, like nu

28、mber of salespeople. example3-1a salesperson generates $50,000 in sales. if the sales revenue to salespeople ratio remains the same, you require 6 new salespeople to produce a hope-for extra $300,00scatter plotshows graphically how two variables (such as a measure of business activity and a f

29、irms staffing levels) are related.2.1.7computerized forecastdetermination of future staff needs by projecting sales, volume of production, and personnel required to maintain this volume of output, using software packages.2.1.8judgmental method managerial judgment will play a big role in employment p

30、lanning and forecasting, regardless of the forecasting method used.-external in naturestatistical planning model have to be complemented by subjective judgments of people who have expertise in the area.² the expert estimate (delphi technique)the expert estimate is for an “expert” or group of ex

31、perts to provide the organization with demand estimates based on experience, guesses, intuition, and subjective assessments of available economic and labor force indicators.² nominal group technique (ngt) individual generation of estimates is followed by group brainstorming sessions in the hope

32、 of generating one group decision that is preferred over any of the individual decisions.2.1.9unit-demand forecastingthe unit (which can be an entire department, a project team, or some other group of employees) forecast is a bottom-up approach to forecasting demand. headquarters sums these unit for

33、ecasts, and the results, and the results becomes the employment forecast. note: the unit manager analyzes the person-by-person, job-by-job needs in the present as well as the future. by analyzing present and future requirements of the job and the skills of the incumbents, this method focuses on qual

34、ity of workers.2.2forecasting the supply method2.2.1qualifications inventoriesmanual or computerized records listing employees education, career and development interests, languages, special skills, and so on, to be used in selecting inside candidates for promotion2.2.2personnel replacement chartsco

35、mpany records showing present performance and promotability of inside candidates for the most important positions2.2.3computerized information systemsusing computer system and software to identify the supply of current employee or future. these contents might be search as following:² work exper

36、ience codes² product knowledge² industry experience² formal education² training courses² foreign language skills² relocation limitations² career interests² performance appraisals² skills2.2.4transitional matrix forecastshows the proportion (or number) of

37、employees in different job categories at different times. 2004 2001 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)(1)sale smanager .95 .05(2)sales representatives 05 .60 .35(3)sales apprentice. . 20 .50 .30(4)assitant plant manager .90 .05 .05(5)production manager .10 .75 . .15(6)production assembler .10 .80 .10(7

38、)clerical . 70 .30(8)not in organization . 00 . 20 . 50 .00 .10 .20 .303. procedure of human resource planningtechnology forecastseconomic forecastsmarket forecastsorganizational planninginvestment planningannual operating plansexisting employmentinventoryafter application of expected loss and attri

39、tion ratesannual employmentrequirementnumbersskillsoccupation categoriesvariancesendif shortageif surplusdecisionslayoff/ attritionearly retirementsdemotions/terminationscreation of workdecisionsovertime,retirement, etcendendstrategic planningdemandsupply3.1.1 how to take a diagnostic approach to hr

40、mprescribe implementevaluatediagnose3.2diagnostic model for hrm3.2.1 environmental scaninternal environmental influences external environmental influences acquiring human resourcerewarding humanresourcesdeveloping humanresourcesmaintain andprotectinghuman resources desirable end resultshuman resourc

41、e processesfocus of each process is on people and resultssocially responsible and ethical practicecompetitive, high quality productscompetitive, highquality services3.2.2 influences external environmental influences government requirements, regulations, and laws the union economic condition/domestic

42、 and international competitiveness composition of the labor force location of the organization influences internal environmental influences strategy goals organizational culture nature of the task work group leaders style and experience3.3 human resource management processesacquiring human resource

43、equal employment opportunity hr planning job analysis and design recruitment and selection: domestic and internationalrewarding human resources performance evaluation compensation job analysis and design benefits and servicesdeveloping human resources training and development career planning discipl

44、inemaintaining and protectinghuman resources labor relations and collective bargaining safety, health, and wellness evaluationhuman resources activities by level-strategichuman resources activities by level-managerialdevelopment establish general management development program provide for organizati

45、onal development encourage self-development appraisal validate systems that relatecurrent conditionsand futureneeds establishassessmentcenters fordevelopment rewards (pay and benefits) set up five-yearcompensation progressionplans forindividuals set up cafeteria-type benefitsmenu set up retirementpa

46、ckage employee selection, placement make longitudinalvalidation of selection criteria develop recruitmentmarketing plan develop approach to build laborresource pool3.4 development of plans for action action decisions in surplus of employees action decisions in shortage of employees3.4.1 action decis

47、ions in surplus of employees downsizing pay reductions demotions transfers work sharing hiring freeze natural attrition early retirement retraining layoff/ attrition early retirements demotions/terminations creation of work3.4.2 action decisions in shortage of employees work overtime training and pr

48、omotions of present employees retirement of less-skilled employees laid off part-time workers subcontractors independent professionals contingent workers temporary employees outsourcing retrained transfers turnover reductions new external hires technological innovation3.4.3 alternatives to coping wi

49、th labor shortagespossible solution to a labor shortagepossible negative consequences raise base wages to attract more applicants offer more financial incentives in an effort to motive employees to boost their productivity reduce turnover rates to lessen the need for new hires hire people without th

50、e skills needed and train them may attract more applicants may not be any more qualified. recruiting costs per hire go up as number of applicants to be screened goes up . if productivity increase dont keep up with increased labor costs, margin will shrink unless consumers are willing to pay higher p

51、rice. may drive up labor price if wages tend to increase wit time at the company. too little turnover may stifle creativity. skills obsolescence may become a problem. productivity of new hires is low. increased supervision of new workers is required, which raises costs. can be costly, takes time, an

52、d workers once trained, may leave to work for competitors. buy up other companies to acquire their workforcethe challenge of integrating the acquired company may cause productivity declines in the short term. buy new technologies that reduce the number of people needed .major changes in technology r

53、equire major organizational changes. which take time. new technologies may require even higher levels of skill to operate. utilize foreign labor markets make business decisions that will reduce the need for more skills workersthe organization learning curve is steep for domestic firms with no prior international experience. competition for labor in the global market may be just as stiff ass in th