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1、1The Hydropower Workers SongHeave! Ho! Heave! Heave, ahHeave!Ho! Heave!Heave, ahCut the mount, split the ridge, 1000 mountains, 10,000 riversOur footprints, the iron dragon rolls, transmitting light;Let burning ambition illuminate Heaven and Earth, cherish the majestic hydropower!Man, winds, and rai

2、ns, how many springtimes of lofty sentimentWritten on the great Earth; tis the springtime of hydropowerThe heavens ablaze with color, la! la!Were a new generation, a new generation of hydropower workers, a new generationOur achievements endure a thousand years, good for the country, good for the peo

3、pleMorning is comingBringing the people an undying star!The four seas are our home, we work night and day, seeking brillianceOur spirits, iron and steel our army, tenaciously advancing;Let the Jade Emperor above be struck with awe, pleased with the tribute of hydropowerMan, hot blood forged into riv

4、ers, bold science and technologyCreating a glorious industry, from the high ridges come plainsThe waters reflecting white clouds, la!A new generation of hydro workers, bringing fortune to the fatherland, to the peopleThe march of modernized construction brings the people an undying starMorning!星战风暴

5、http:/2Substations and SubregionsLarge-scale hydropower and local development in Yunnan and southwest ChinaDarrin Magee, Ph.D.3Presentation OutlinenRegional Development: Yunnan peripheral, Yunnan centralqEconomic, political, and cultural marginalityqCentrality to regional devel

6、opment policiesnDetails of Yunnan hydropower projectsnDecision-making & institutional challengesqProtection vs. DevelopmentqCivil Society vs. ControlqWater Law vs. Bureaucratic InertianSuggestions for further research4Centrality and MarginalityDevelopment Frameworks and Major Energy Infrastructu

7、re Projects5Regional Development: DomesticnWestern Development Strategy (西部大开发)qAttempt to address coastal bias of reform eraqEmphases on transportation, power, & industrynPan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角)q2004 Discussion Forum and Trade Negotiations on Greater Pearl River Delta Cooperation & Dev

8、elopmentqNine provinces from Fujian to Yunnan, plus Macao and Hong Kong (“9+2 Region”)qChina Southern Power Grid (南方电网)6RD 1: Chinas “West”Yunnan7Go West, Young Han?nViewpoints on Western Development range from critical to optimisticq“Internal colonisation” qFurther entrenchment and legitimacy for l

9、ongstanding patterns of resource extractionorqReal concern on behalf of Beijing leadership to seek more balanced development and address 10:1 east/west gaps in per capita GDP 8Western Development StrategynOfficial launch in 2000nCenterpiece of 10th FYP (2001-2005) nIncreased direct fiscal transfers

10、to west, along with favorable loan terms for infrastructure projectsnSome critics argue that further subsidies are not the answer, call for new methods for financing capital-intensive projects (e.g., securities markets)nBasic infrastructure, “ecological construction” nUncertainty about policies, but

11、 certainty that western resources play a key role9Key Projects (announced in 2000)ProjectLocationNingxia-Tibet RailwayNingxia Province to TibetChongqing-Huaihua RailwayChongqing Municipality to Huaihua CityWestern regions road constructionVarious areasWestern regions airport constructionVarious area

12、sChongqing light railChongqing MunicipalitySebei-Xining-Lanzhou gas pipelineQinghai Province, Gansu ProvinceQinghai 300,000-ton potash fertilizer factoryQinghai ProvinceGrain-for-Green projectVarious areasHigher education basic infrastructureVarious areasZipingpu Water ConservancySichuan中国西部开发大事记 (2

13、003)10Electricity & Western DevelopmentnSend Western Electricity East (西电东送)qAmong second set of major Western Development projects prioritized in 2001nSend Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送)qUltra-high-voltage DC transmission lines (800 kV) expected by 2010, aimed at reducing voltage losses resul

14、ting from long-distance transmissionnSend Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送)qContract negotiations since late 1990s for power sales to Thailand and later Vietnam11Chinas Hydro Bases: Bakers Dozen?Northeast11,983N. Yellow6,408Min-Zhe14,871Lancang21,470Dadu17,720U. Yellow16,364.3Jinsha59,080Wu R.10,615

15、U. Yangtze28,897Huxi7,735Yarlung20,100Nanpan/Red12,012Nu30,00012Money for MegawattsnGuangdong investment in infrastructure to support power transfersnEarly 1990sq2.39 B Yuan for Yunnan and Guangxi power stationsq35 M Yuan in design and planning work for Xiaowan Dam on the LancangnGuangdong currently

16、 receives 30-40% of power from external sources13(Mis)perceived synergy?nGuangdong peak power demand occurs during summernYunnans peak hydropower generation output occurs during monsoon season (summer!)yetnNeed for flood control is also highest during times of peak runoff into rivers (summer!)14Thre

17、e west-east corridors (通道) Beijing /Tianjin areaShanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu areaGuangdong / PRDNorthern CorridorFrom: Yalong Tsangpo& YellowTo: Capital areaMiddle CorridorFrom: Jinsha/Upper YangtzeTo: Shanghai areaSouthern CorridorFrom: Lancang/NuTo: Guangdong area15RD 2: Pan-Pearl River Delta

18、 (PPRD)PPRD RegionPearl River Delta 16PPRD & China Southern Power GridnSevere power outages in Guangdong in 2003; PPRD created in 2004, with power transfers as a key componentnCreation of new regions such as PPRD legitimize and naturalize certain policies and investment patterns17PPRD Initiative

19、sTopicKey Initiatives Industry investment and basic infrastructure Science and technology, west-east electricity transmission, interprovincial highway constructionMarket constructionQuality control, commodity prices, intellectual property, enterprise collaboration, market oversight, trademark protec

20、tionAgriculture Agricultural technology, trade, key agro-industry promotion, specialized products, standardization of production bases, quality supervision and controlRegional environmental protectionAir quality monitoring in delta area, environmental monitoring network and reporting over PPRD areaT

21、ourism, labor, science, education, culture, sanitation, and healthTourism cooperation, educational exchange and resource sharing; food and medication security; infectious disease prevention and reportingCreate a convenient platform for information exchange and a PPRD information networkInformation n

22、etwork interlinking and maintenance for government offices; website management groupsSource: PPRD Office (2005)18Yunnan Electricity to GuangdongnPan-Pearl River DeltanCore: Guangdongs Pearl River Delta PPRD RegionPearl River Delta 19Generation in the Southern GridYunnanGuizhouGuangxiGuangdongTotalNo

23、. of Dams145815641323Installed Capacity (MW)88,20014,66314,5152,68020,058Annual Output (Billion kWh)437.365.6464.49.68577.07Output as % of 4-Province Total75.611.411.21.7Population (millions)41.45736.64646.7471.30196.14Per capita output (MWh/person)10.551.791.380.1362.94Source: (Ji & Duan, 2001)

24、20Thematic Map of Power Consumption 2,224.96 to 4,715.52 1,174.92 to 2,224.96 315.93 to 1,174.92 Annual per capita consumption 2004 (kWh/pers)Data source: China Electric Power Yearbook Editorial Committee (Ed.) (2005)21Yunnan: Guangdongs Powershed?n2001-2005, some 24 B kWh sent from Yunnan to Guangd

25、ong, even while rolling blackouts affected Yunnann1993-2004, increase in dedicated generation capacity from 300 to 1800 MWnMuch of Lancang (Mekong) cascade capacity will be for GuangdongnYunnan likely to become sole supplier in near future based on growing demand in Guangxi22Why “Powershed”?nObvious

26、 analogy to watershed; space over which a resource is collected/concentrated nUnderscores the fact that Yunnan hydro is not simply a Yunnan issue, and that familiar scalar analytics like provinces fail to capture the dynamics of interprovincial power transfersnChallenges comfortable rural-urban dich

27、otomynOpens door for simultaneous examination of political economic power relations23Making the connection: grid linkingnSouthern Grid: Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdongn110-kV, 220-kV, 500-kV, and 800-kV (2010) transmission lines coexisting in porous gridnSouthern Grid and China Power Gri

28、d (中国南方电网和中国电网) both formerly housed under the Ministry of Electric Power; split off in 2002nGoal to create national grid by 201524Challenges to grid interlinkingnDiffering voltages necessitate step-down or step-up stations (调度站)nNumerous local, low-voltage grids across Yunnan (and other provinces)q

29、Some in poor areas with little or no infrastructureqSome in rich areas with sufficient infrastructure and little incentive (at present) to interconnectnDebate about national grid architectureq网对网 (grid to grid) vs 点对网 (point to grid)25Regional Development: InternationalnMekong River Commission (湄公河委

30、员会)qHalf-century history; re-established in 1995qEntrenched perception of “MRC vs China” qLittle incentive for China to join, yet some recent progress in technical cooperationnGreater Mekong Subregion (大湄公河次区域)qLaunched by Asian Development Bank in 1992qSeen as less of a political challenge than MRC

31、nASEAN (东盟)26GMS: Naturalizing the SubregionNepalIndiaChinaBhutanBangladeshVietnamMyanmarThailandCambodiaLaosYunnanGMS5 nation-states, one province-state; call for inclusion of second Chinese province (Guizhou), but not Tibet27GMS: Power, transport, tourism, tradenFirst transborder power sales from

32、Yunnan to Vietnam via Hekou/Lao Cai in fall 2004nSecond GMS leaders summit held in Kunming in July 2005qAgreements on electrical grid development and interconnection, trans-border movement of people and goods, disease prevention, etc.nWithin Yunnan, GMS construct frequently deployed as justification

33、 for infrastructure investments (cf. Tibet)28GMS Projectsn Agriculture n Energy n Environment n Human Resources n Investment n Telecom n Tourism n Trade n Transport n Multisector Second GMS Leaders Summit in Kunming, July 200529GMS Transportation Loans to PRC12/2004 Loan 2116: Dali-Lijiang Railway9/

34、2004 Loan 2094: Guangxi Roads Development Project II 10/2003 Loan 2014: Western Yunnan Roads Development Project 10/2001 Loan 1851: Guangxi Roads Development Project 9/1994 Loan 1325: Yunnan Expressway 30GMS Transportation (partial)3/2006 RETA 6310: Development Study on GMS North-South Economic Corr

35、idor12/2005 TA 4742: GMS Northern Transport Network Improvement9/2005 TA 4657: Preparing the Railway Development Project (Yunnan-Yuxi Mengzi Railway)8/2005 RETA 6251: GMS Rehabilitation of the Railway in Cambodia3/2005 RETA 6235: GMS Southern Coastal Corridor12/2004 RETA 6227: Coordinating for GMS:

36、North-South Economic Corridor Bridge Project (formerly Third Mekong Bridge)12/2004 RETA 6228: Facilitating Cross-Border Trade and Investment in the GMS 10/2004 RETA 6193: GMS Infrastructure Connections in Northern Laos (SSTA); RETA 6195: GMS Transport Sector Strategy Study 12/2002 TA 4050: Prep Kunm

37、ing-Haiphong Transport Corridor Project-Viet Nam31GMS Regional Power Trade (RPT)1/2006 RETA 6304: GMS RPT Coordination & Development; Also RETA 6301: Developing the GMS Energy Sector Strategy 3/2004 RETA 4323: TA to the Lao PDR for Preparing the GMS: Nam Theun 2 (NT2) Hydropower Development Proj

38、ect- Phase II12/2003 RETA 6147: Preparing the GMS Power Interconnection Phase I1/2003 TA 4078: GMS: Cambodia Preparing the Power Distribution and GMS Transmission Project11/2002 RETA 6100: TA to Study a GMS RPT Operating Agreement 7/2000 RETA 5920: Regional Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconne

39、ction7/1999 RETA 3222: Se San 3 Hydropower Viet Nam7/1997 RETA 2926: Nam Ngum 500 kV Transmission Lao PDR8/1996 RETA 5697: Se Kong-Se San & Nam Theun Basins Hydro Dev Study9/1995 RETA 5643: Subregional Electric Power Forum32Transboundary power salesnPower sold to Vietnam at higher tariff than to

40、 Guangdong or elsewhere in ChinanTransboundary transmissions to Vietnam currently occur over low-voltage (110-kV) lines, but plans underway to complete 220-kV circuit to Vietnam by late 2006 and 500-kV circuit to Thailand via Laos nLate 1990s negotiations between Thailand and Yunnan for joint invest

41、ment in dams along with power purchase agreements; yet loud criticisms within Thailand of “Chinese” dams33Water to WattsDetails of Lancang (Mekong) and Nu (Salween) hydropower development34River as Power SourcenMajor push underway since mid-1980s to develop large-scale hydropower on Yunnans riversnL

42、ancang-Mekongq4800 km long (1200 in YN)q6 countriesnNu-Salweenq2800 km long (600 in YN)q3 countriesnJinsha-Chang-YangtzenConcern over impactsnGreat uncertaintyManwan Dam35Project DetailsYunnanGuangdong36nChina has half the worlds large1 dams (20K)nTGP: 18,200 MW installed capacityqHoover Dam: 2,067

43、MWqGrand Coulee: 6,809 MWqColumbia River: 24,149 MWnLancang (Mekong) cascade: 16,150 MWnNu (Salween) cascade: 21,320 MWnConcerns about downstream impacts and resettlement of thousands of villagersBackground: Hydropower Potential1. WCD: 15 m high; China: 250 MW37Regional Power Consumption Trends38Urb

44、an Power Consumption Trends39Power Consumption by Region40Middle & Lower Lancang CascadeDam NameInstalled Capacity(MW)Annual Output (Twh)Start DateEnd DateDam Height (m)(Est.) Cost (Billion Yuan)Reservoir Volume (billion m3)Gongguoqiao功果桥a7504.0602006-20072010-20151303.80.51Xiaowan 小湾b4,20018.89

45、January 20022012292 22.3 to 27.715.13Manwan 漫湾c1,5007.805May 198619951323.4d1.06Dachaoshan 大朝山e1,3506.70August 1997October 20038Nuozhadu 糯扎渡b5,85023.684*End of 2005201726035.322.74Jinghong 景洪b1,7507.93120042009-2013107171.23Ganlanba橄榄坝a1500.899?0.6?Mengsong 勐宋a6002.888?652.2?41Lancang (Me

46、kong) River 澜沧江42Xiaowan Dam Siten292 m talln25 B Yuan ( $3B US)43Middle & Lower Nu CascadeDam NameInstalledCapacity (MW)Annual Output(Twh)Start Date(Est)End Date (Est)Dam Height(m)(Est.) Cost (Billion Yuan)Songta 松塔4,20017.872006-20072020-203030719.7Bingzhongluo 丙中洛1,6008.34?2020-203054.55.2Maj

47、i 马吉4,20018.972006-20072015-202030018.5Lumadeng 鹿马登2,00010.09?2020-20301659.1Fugong 福贡4001.98?2020-2030602.3Bijiang 碧江1,5001.18?2015-202071.45.9Yabiluo 亚碧罗1,8009.062006-20072015-20201336.0Lushui 泸水2,40012.74?2015-20201758.8Liuku 六库1800.762006-20072015-202035.50.9Shitouzai 石头寨4402.29?2020-2030592.3Sa

48、ige 赛格1,0005.372006-20072015-2020793.6Yansangshu 岩桑树1,0005.2?2015-2020844.4Guangpo 光坡6003.15?2020-2030582.944Nu (Salween) River 怒江45Institutional ChallengesI: Environmental Impact Assessment Law vs. “Development First” Paradigm46Development vs. ProtectionnMiddle & Lower Nu River Hydropower Plann

49、ing Report submitted to the NDRC in July 2003nEnvironmental Assessment Law promulgated in September 2003. Nu River (Upper Salween) widely seen as a test case for “teeth” of law and enforcement capabilities of State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA)nMarch 2004: Call for suspension of Nu

50、projectsnNovember 2004: Lancang EIA meeting held, but closed to publicnOctober 2006: Minister of Water Resources Wang Shucheng calls Nu projects “predatory development” 47Projects halted due to EIA LawResponsible CompanyProject Three Gorges Project Corp.Jinsha R. Xiluodu Hydro Station (12600 MW)Thre

51、e Gorges Project Corp.TGP Underground Power Gen. (4200 MW)Three Gorges Project Corp.TGP Power Supply station (100MW)*Taicang Harbor Env. Prot. Power Gen. Co.Jiangsu Taicang Harbor 4th stage 2600MW exp.Xuzhou Huaxin Power Gen. Co.Jiangsu Xuzhou 2300 MW exp.Jiangsu Xutang Power Gen. Co.Jiangsu Xutang

52、2300 MW exp.Jiangyin Sulong Power Gen. Co.Jiangyinxia Harbor 2330 MW exp.Jiangsu Huadian Yangzhou Power Gen. Co.Thermal power & heat supply 2300MW Xiamen Huaxia Intl Electric Power Dev Co.Xiamen Songyu Stn. 2nd Stage 2300MW exp.Baotou East China Thermal Power Co.Thermal power & heat supply 2

53、300 MW Qingyuan No. 1 Power Gen. Co.Gansu Qingyuan Stn. 3rd Stage 2300 MW exp.Ningxia Power Generation Group Co.Ningxia Maliantai Stn. 2330 MW Jiangsu Xinhai Power Gen. Co.Jiangsu Xinhai 2300 MW Power & Heat Supply Exp.Datang Intl Stock Co.Zhejiang Datang Wushashan Stn. 4600 MWInner Mongolia Huo

54、lin River Power Gen. Co.Inner Mongolia Huolin 2300 MW 48Projects halted due to EIA Law (contd)Responsible CompanyProject Qufu Shengcheng Thermal Power Co.Qufu Shengcheng 2200MW Sichuan Electric Power Co.Nanchong-Wanxian 500-kV transmission projectSichuan Electric Power Co.Guangan-Nanchong 500-kV tra

55、nsmission projectFujian Province Electric Power Co.Fujian Power Grid Xiamen Hepu R. Transformer Stn. 500-kV power conversion & transmission projectChina Guodian GroupNingxia Shizuishan 2330 MW tech upgradeChina Huadian GroupGuizhou Dafang 4300 MWGuodian Xuanwei Power Generation Co.Yunnan Xuanwei

56、 Stn. 7th Stage 2300 MW exp.Henan Zhongfu Industry Stock Co.Henan Zhongfu 2300 MW exp.Inner Mongolia Xinfeng Thermal Power Co.Xinfeng 2300 MW power and heat supplyInner Mong. Zhungeer Dafanpu Power Stn. Dafanpu Power Stn. 2300 MWNanjing Suyuan Thermal Power Co.Suyuan Thermal Power Co. 2nd stage 2300

57、 MW power & heat supplyChina Natl Petroleum & Natural Gas Co.Lanzhou Petrochem Stock Co. 1.2 Megaton/year delayed coking projectFoshan Huafeng Paper Industries Co.Upgrade to 300 kiloton/year high-grade paper projectInner Mongolia Transportation BureauPortion of Dandong-Lhasa highway projectF

58、uzhou City Development & Reform Comm.Fujian Min R. North Harbor Southside Flood Prev. Project and South R. road construction project49Institutional ChallengesII: Civil society vs. Legal Regulations on Organizations50Civil Society OrganizationsnSince late 1990s, increasing concern among NGOs in d

59、ownstream countries about impacts of Chinese development of upstream watersnStrong anti-dam NGO community in Thailand; no real analog in ChinanComplicated by transboundary power salesnMore recent development of organizations mobilized around environmental and cultural preservation within Chinan“Safe

60、” topics, but idea of non-state organizations generally troubling to Chinas leadership51Fine print: dual oversightnCSOs could formerly register with industrial or commercial bureaucracy as “non-enterprise units”nRegistration with the Ministry of Civil AffairsnAdoption by a professional bureaucracy (forestry, agricultural, transportation, science and technology, etc.)

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