SRVEY RESEARCH UMBC调查的研究的项目

1、survey researchtopic #1covered in considerable detail in weisberg et al. textbooksurvey research quantitative study of large human populations using these basic research operations: define the population to be studied; select a representative sample; measure (by means of interview questions) charact

2、eristics of the respondents in the sample; tabulate, crosstabulate, and otherwise analyze the sample data (using spss, etc.) to produce various sample statistics; and make inferences from sample statistics to population parameters of interest.types of surveys fake/spurious/recreational polls and sur

3、veys: straw/call-in/write-in or web based polls propaganda polls (asking “biased” questions) sponsored by advocacy or interest groups political persuasion disguised as polling (“push polls”) commercial selling disguised as pollingtypes of surveys (cont.) legitimate commercial surveys public (results

4、 released to the public) syndicated polls (starting in late 1930s) gallup, roper, harris, etc. media polls (starting in the 1960s) pre-election tracking polls exit polls proprietary (contract research; results not publicly released) market research (starting in 1920s) political consulting/polling fo

5、r candidates, parties, and advocacy and interest groups (starting in the 1950s)types of surveys (cont.) non-commercial surveys government (“statistical”) survey research u.s. census current population survey (cps) rotating panel survey of 60,000 households source of labor force size and unemployment

6、 data voter registration and turnout (but not vote choices and opinions) annual survey of social security and medicare beneficiaries national crime victimization surveytypes of surveys (cont.) non-commercial surveys (cont.) academic/scholarly/scientific surveys voting studies (surveys vs. election d

7、ata) “columbia” (sociological) studies (1940s) local samples extended panel surveys emphasizing groups affiliations index of political disposition (ipp)types of surveys (cont.) voting studies (cont.)“michigan” (political/social psychological) studies national samples limited (pre- and post-election)

8、 panels occasional extended panels (four years) emphasize opinions, attitudes, and orientation over group affiliations party identification (student survey q1 & q2)american national election studies (anes)social science data archives interuniversity consortium for social and political research (

9、icpsr) at university of michigan european consortium for political research at university of essex (uk)ibm punch cardother major (ongoing) surveys general social survey (gss), norc (university of chicago) panel study of income dynamics (psid), university of michigan src citizen participation surveys

10、 (sidney verba and others) long-term political socialization panel study parent-child pairs interviewed in 1965, 1973, 1982, and 1997 british, canadian, german, etc., election studieswhat do (political) surveys (purport to) measure? voting intentions (and likelihood of voting) attitudes/opinions/pre

11、ferences specific issues general orientations party id, ideological placement, political trust/cynicism beliefs/perceptions/predictions/salience information/knowledge reported behavior did you vote? for whom? contribute $? attend meeting? job-seeking activity tv watching crime victimization demograp

12、hicspreview of data collection methods self-administered “paper and pencil” or web-based questionnaires student survey sceq exit polls telephone interviews tracking polls personal interviews anes cps, gss, psid, etc. closed-form vs. open-ended questions multiple-choice test vs. “blue book” test sceq

13、 “scan sheets” vs. “blue sheets”closed-form questions (cont.)multiple-choice format: may be self-administered, telephone, or personal (anes)some people dont pay much attention to political campaigns. how about you? would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested or not muc

14、h interested in the political campaigns so far this year?1. very much interested3. somewhat interested5. not much interested8. dont know9. refused0. naclosed-form questions (cont.)agree / disagree format (anes)“this country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional fa

15、mily ties.”do you agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly with this statement?1. agree strongly2. agree somewhat3. neither agree nor disagree4. disagree somewhat5. disagree strongly8. dont know9. refused0. naclosed-form questions (cont.)rat

16、ing scale format (anes)some people think the government should provide fewer services even in areas such as health and education in order to reduce spending. suppose these people are at one end of a scale, at point 1. other people feel it is important for the government to provide many more services

17、 even if it means an increase in spending. suppose these people are at the other end, at point 7. and, of course, some other people have opinions somewhere in between, at points 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.where would you place yourself on this scale, or havent you thought much about this?01. govt should provid

18、e many fewer services02.03.04.05.06.07. govt should provide many more services80. havent thought much about this88. dont know89. refused00. naclosed-form questions (cont.)rating scale format (cont.)where would you place george w. bush on this issue?do not probe dk1. government should provide many fe

19、wer services.6.7. government should provide many more services8. dont know9. refused0. nanote: randomize order of administration for pres candidatesthermometer scaleplease look at page 2 of the booklet. see weisberg et al., p. 80id like to get your feelings toward some of our political leader

20、s and other people who are in the news these days.ill read the name of a person and id like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer. ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. ratings between 0 degrees and 50 de

21、grees mean that you dont feel favorable toward the person and that you dont care too much for that person. you would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you dont feel particularly warm or cold toward the person.if we come to a person whose name you dont recognize, you dont need to rate that per

22、son. just tell me and well move on to the next one.closed-form questions (cont.)indices (composite measures)trust in government (anes)index of respondents trust in government, built from responses to the following questions: (1) how much of the time do you think you can trust the government in washi

23、ngton to do what is right? (2) do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or dont waste very much of it? (3) would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of

24、all the people? (4) do you think that quite a few of the people running the government are crooked or that not very many of them are? those who rank low on this index were more likely to select the distrusting position for each of these items. 1 low 2 3 4 5 high 9 naexperimenting with closed-form qu

25、estions (2004 anes)if r selected for standard version: in talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered, they were sick, or they just didnt have time. how about you-did you vote in the elections this november?1. yes, voted5

26、. no, didnt vote8. dont know9. refused0. naif r selected for experimental version: in talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered, they were sick, or they just didnt have time. which of the following statements best descr

27、ibes you: 1. i did not vote (in the election this november).2. i thought about voting this time, but didnt.3. i usually vote, but didnt this time.4. i am sure i voted8. dont know9. refused0. naclosed-form questions (cont.) closed-form questions produce pre-coded data. this is a major advantage, in s

28、ame way that multiple-choice tests vs. essay exams can be quickly and reliably scored. researchers can move quickly to tabulation and analysis. student survey (and sceq) answer sheets can be sent directly for scanning, producing an electronic data file. see next slide anes (and other personal) inter

29、view sheets must be transcribed and then entered into electronic format (e.g., excel spreadsheet or spss data editor screen) to create an electronic file.for example, 2009 student survey dataopen-ended questions anes: party likes/dislikes id like to ask you what you think are the good and bad points

30、 about the two national parties. note: randomize order of administration for partiesis there anything in particular that you like about the democratic party?if r says there is something r likes about democratic party:(what is that?)probe: anything else you like about the democratic party? until r sa

31、ys no.is there anything in particular that you dont like about the democratic party? etc.data: number of responsesbalance of positive vs. negative responsescontent of responsesdata must be coded for quantitative analysisis there anything in particular that you like/dislike about the democratic/repub

32、lican party?0101 traditional democratic voter: always been a democrat; just a democrat; never been a republican; just couldnt vote republican0102 traditional republican voter: always been a republican; just a republican; never been a democrat; just couldnt vote democratic0111 positive, personal, aff

33、ective terms applied to party-good/nice people; patriotic; etc.0112 negative, personal, affective terms applied to party-bad/lazy people; lack of patriotism; etc.0121 can trust them; they keep their promises; you know where they stand 0122 cant trust them; they break their promises; you dont know wh

34、ere they stand0131 party is well-organized, sticks together, is united; members are disciplined; votes party line0132 party is poorly-organized/really two parties/divided/factionalized; members not disciplined; doesnt vote party line0133 party is (more) representative/good cross-section of the count

35、ry; encompasses a wider variety of views/people; is more at the center of the countrys views etcfrom setups codebook: handout #1b in course pack or from course websitev30most important national problem “what do you think is the single most important problem facing this country?” (responses have been

36、 categorized into the five groups listed below.)1 economy2 foreign affairs3 social welfare4 crime, public order5 other9 nain the actual anes survey, this is an open-ended question with hundreds of code categories.data from such open-ended questions usually is not available until long after data from

37、 closed form questions is available.problem with comparable closed-form questions 2004 exit pollsimilar closed-form questions can have serious problems.was 2004 election “all about values,” as the media claimed?exit pollquestion etaxes 5%education 4%iraq 15%terrorism 19%economy/jobs 20%moral values

38、22%health care 8%omit 7%2000 exit pollquestion dworld affairs 12%med/rx 7%health care 8%econ/jobs18%taxes14%education14%soc security14%omit13%question designsee weisberg et al., chapter 4question wording can be blatantly biased “pushing” respondent to a preferred responses, as in propaganda polls do

39、 you favor murdering innocent babies in the womb? should government officials have the power to interfere with womens personal decisions?question design even without manifest bias, phrasing can hugely affect the distribution of responses, especially when many respondents are ambivalent about the iss

40、ue. do you believe that the u.s. should withdraw from south vietnam? do you believe that the u.s. should withdraw from south vietnam and allow the vietnamese to settle things among themselves? do you believe that the u.s. should withdraw from south vietnam, even if this means that the viet cong and

41、north vietnamese or “the communists” take over? if the full house votes to impeach bill clinton, then do you think it would be better for the county if bill clinton resigned from office, or not? better to resign: 60% if the full house votes to send impeachment articles to the senate for a trial, the

42、n do you think it would be better for the county if bill clinton resigned from office, or not? better to resign: 43%question design (cont.)unbalanced vs. balanced formatshould illegal immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the u.s. illegally, or shouldnt they? should be deported69%should

43、 not be deported24%unsure 7%if you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the united states for at least two years? they should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status. or, they should be deported back

44、 to their native country.chance to keep jobs etc. 62%deported 33%unsure 5%cbs news/new york times poll. may 18-23, 2007question design (cont.) unbalanced vs. balanced format anes through 1960:“if cities and towns around the country need help to build more schools, the government in washington ought

45、to give them the money they need. do you have an opinion on this or not?” anes from 1964 onwards:“some people think that the government in washington should help towns and cities provide education for grade and high school children; others think that this should be handled by states and local commun

46、ities. have you been interested enough in this to favor one side over the other?” also recall “government services” question.question design (cont.) ambiguity (see weisberg, p. 85) “how many public officials do you think are a little bit dishonest - most, some, a few, or none?” anes, earlier version

47、 many respondents answered “few or none,” but evidently because they though some or most public officials were a whole lot dishonest. “do you think that that quite a few people running the government are crooked, not very many are, or do you think hardly any of them are?” anes, current versionquesti

48、on design (cont.)might the holocaust have never happened?asked in a “wrong” confusing way (november 1992) question: does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the nazi extermination of the jews never happened?possible it never happened22%impossible it never happened65%dk12%asked in

49、 a “right” less confusing way way (march 1994) question: does it seem possible to you that the nazi extermination of the jews never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?possible it never happened 1%certain it happened 91%dk 8%source: surveys by the roper organization, reported in public

50、 perspective question design (cont.) closed-form option order (cf. ballot order) which candidate did you prefer for the 2004 democratic presidential nomination?(1)howard dean(2)john edwards(3)richard gephardt(4)john kerry(5)other candidate; dont know; no preference which candidate did you prefer for

51、 the 2004 democratic presidential nomination?(1)john kerry(2)richard gephardt(3)john edwards (4)howard dean (5)other candidate; dont know; no preferencequestion design (cont.)response biaspolitical efficacy index index of respondents sense of “political efficacy,” built from responses to the followi

52、ng questions: (1)do you agree or disagree with the statement, people like me dont have any say about what the government does? (2)do you agree or disagree with the statement, i dont think public officials care much what people like me think? (3)do you agree or disagree with the statement, sometimes

53、politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me cant really understand whats going on? do all the people who “agree” with all these statements really have a low sense of political efficacy, or are some of them just “agreeable” (i.e., tend to say they agree with any statement read t

54、o them)?questionnaire design these considerations point to the importance of pre-testing, survey experiments, and pilot studies: advantage of using standard questions (e.g., poli student surveys) how long will survey take? question order can affect the distribution of responses to questions (issue p

55、reference and presidential approval in 1984). question context (i.e., the immediately preceding questions) can affect distribution of responses (e.g., q4 in ps #1b). early questions should reassure the respondent as to the legitimate and non-threatening nature of the questionnaire. “controversial” q

56、uestions should come last. what do you think is the most “controversial” standard question? length of questionnaire.survey data collection methods weisberg et.al., chapter 5 self-administered questionnaires (written or web-based) telephone surveys (entirely oral) personal interviewing (face-to-face

57、and almost entirely oral)self-administered questionnaires varied settings controlled (student survey, sceq, exit polls) distributed and returned later mailed, completed (by whom?), and returned by mail characteristics cheap low response/completion rate (if returned later) probably closed form questi

58、ons only short questionnaire only literacy problemstelephone surveys increasingly common (especially for pre-election tracking polls; even academic surveys now use this method more than in the past) characteristics fast and cheap computerized sampling (random digit dialing) computer-assisted intervi

59、ewing interviews are monitored by supervisors limited to simple questions and short questionnaires problems: call-back procedures (if no answer) diffusion of telephones cell phonespersonal interviewing the “gold standard” in scientific surveys, used by anes general social survey current population s

60、urvey and most on-going high quality surveys setting preliminary letter usually in respondents home at convenient timepersonal interviewing (cont.) characteristics expensive labor intensive interviews are unmonitored need semi-professional interviewers (almost always women) interviewers must be geograph