Real Etate Appreciation Trends in Florida在佛罗里达州的房地产升值趋势

1、real estate appreciation trends in florida: june 2006 updatestanley d. smithsuntrust chair of banking and professor of financeuniversity of central floridamortgage bankers association of florida 53rd annual convention june 23, 2006what is really happening in real estate markets?is it sunny, cloudy,

2、or is the sky falling?it depends on the source of information and how it is provided!3sources of recent information mba (mortgage originations; refinance and purchase applications index) u.s. census/hud - new residential sales (median & average sales prices; months supply of new houses; months f

3、or sale since completion); new residential construction permits nahb (nahb/wf hmi, building permits) yahoo!finance (builders stock prices) nar (median sales prices for existing single-family homes) ofheo (price changes for homes financed by conforming mortgages by fnma and fhlmc)41-4 family mortgage

4、 originations (mba)date2003-q12003-q22003-q32003-q42004-q12004-q22004-q32004-q42005-q12005-q22005-q32005-q4total originations ($bil)79411871199632627825646675618789826675purchase originations230344384322251379362317291434438349refinance originations564843815310376445284358328355388326refinance share

5、 (% of $) 71716849605444535345474856u. s. new homes sold (april 2006)median price = 238,500; average = 298,300yearly changemedian sales price 0.93%average sales price 3.18%quarterly changemedian sales price-2.61%average sales price-0.90%source: u.s. census and hud789nahb/wf housing market index june

6、 hmi (released 6/19/06), 3 components hmi is builder sentiment of sales conditions and may vary more than market activity good 50, poor 50, and fair = 50 national overall = 42; south overall = 49 (northeast 40, midwest 25, west 61) 1. current sales = 47 2. sales next 6 months = 50 3. traffic of pros

7、pective buyers = 2910new housing permits new residential construction (u.s. census & hud, 6/20/06) single-family about 80% of permits (000s) may 2005 natl.= 193.1; south = 89.3 march 2006 natl.= 191.3; south = 98.7 april 2006 natl.= 164.9; south = 81.6 may 2006 natl.= 182.7; south = 88.111single

8、-family permits (000s) using new omb* definitions for metropolitan statistical areas (msas) (nahb)ytdytdapr-06pct chgu.s.505.5-3%florida65.69 -3%vero beach fl 1.47 75%lakeland fl 4.20 39%ocala fl 2.71 35%punta gorda fl 1.15 33%tallahassee fl 1.06 25%fort walton beach-crestview-destin fl 0.42 11%napl

9、es-marco island fl 1.34 0%12palm bay-melbourne-titusville fl 1.81 -2%orlando fl 9.16 -3%tampa-st. petersburg-clearwater8.11 -7%jacksonville fl 5.29 -7%cape coral-fort myers fl 6.80 -11%port st. lucie-fort pierce fl 2.66 -15%sarasota-bradenton-venice fl 3.02 -15%panama city-lynn haven fl 0.37 -23%mia

10、mi-fort lauderdale-miami beach fl 6.41 -26%gainesville fl 0.43 -26%deltona-daytona beach-ormond beach fl 1.23 -31%pensacola-ferry pass-brent fl 0.79 13homebuilder stock prices (6 mo.)14homebuilder stock prices (2 yr.)15 orlando34.0% gainesville31.9% ocala30.8% deltona-daytona beach- ormond beach 25.

11、4% tampa-st. pete-clearwater20.0% jacksonville19.0% cape coral-ft. myers18.3%nar q1 2006 median sales price of existing single-family homes for metropolitan areas- annual change (1) high to low16 pensacola-ferry pass-brent13.7% palm bay-melbourne-titusville13.0% tallahassee12.8% sarasota-bradenton-v

12、enice12.0% miami-ft. lauderdale11.2% u.s. 10.3%nar q1 2006 median sales price of existing single-family homes for metropolitan areas- annual change (2)17nar q1 2006 median sales price of existing single-family homes for metropolitan areas- quarterly change (1) high to low jacksonville 7.4% gainesvil

13、le 6.3% sarasotabradenton-venice 4.2% deltonadaytona beachormond beach1.8% tallahassee 0.2% orlando -0.5%18nar q1 2006 median sales price of existing single-family homes for metropolitan areas- quarterly change (2) palm bay-melbourne-titusville-0.7% ocala -0.8% pensacola-ferry pass-brent-2.8% u.s. -

14、3.3% miami-ft. lauderdale-3.6% tampa-st.pete-clearwater-7.0% cape coral-ft. myers-8.8%19problems with nar data no control for property characteristics location square feet schools amenities some areas not covered (ft. walton, panama city, lakeland, punta gorda, vero beach, port st. lucie, naples, wp

15、b; & miami and ft. lauderdale combined)20ofheo data ofheo is regulator for fannie mae, freddie mac, and fed. home loan banks uses refinancing and purchases of same single-family properties with conforming mortgages ($417k in 2006) by fnma and fmlmc (some back to 1975) to estimate and re-estimate

16、 changes in prices each quarter most academic researchers consider the ofheo data to be the better source because the property is controlled. more florida areas covered: 21 vs. 1221florida ofheo data northwest north central southwest southeast22northwest florida last 4 quarters (2005q2-2006q1)florid

17、a7.56.75.94.3fort walton beach-crestview-destin8.07.74.72.6panama city-lynn haven5.37.64.51.4pensacola-ferry pass-brent8.07.73.01.523north florida last 4 quarters (2005q2-2006q1)florida7.56.75.94.3gainesville5.24.85.91.3jacksonville6.34.84.34.4ocala7.56.37.85.8tallahassee4.25.23.62.824central florid

18、a last 4 quarters (2005q2-2006q1)florida7.56.75.94.3deltona-daytona beach-ormond beach8.07.47.32.3lakeland7.310.57.66.2orlando-kissimmee9.08.46.64.8palm bay-melbourne-titusville7.76.25.83.225southwest florida last 4 quarters (2005q2-2006q1)florida7.56.75.94.3cape coral-fort myers10.68.47.66.1naples-

19、marco island12.67.48.94.6punta gorda8.46.26.03.3sarasota-bradenton-venice8.36.57.23.8tampa-st. petersburg-clearwater6.46.46.64.526southeast florida last 4 quarters (2005q2-2006q1)florida7.56.75.94.3fort lauderdale-pompano beach-deerfield beach 8.37.16.94.3miami-miami beach-kendall7.66.36.94.8port st

20、. lucie-fort pierce7.56.65.72.5sebastian-vero beach8.98.35.81.4west palm beach-boca raton-boynton beach8.16.75.44.827conclusions ofheo data which controls for the property characteristics presents a much more positive view than the nar data next is how each of your areas is ranked by the last quarte

21、rs, q1 2006, gain28area1-yr gain1-qtr gainlakeland35.66.2cape coral-fort myers36.96.1ocala30.45.8orlando-kissimmee32.04.8miami-miami beach-kendall28.04.8west palm beach-boca raton-boynton beach27.34.8naples-marco island37.74.629area1-yr gain1-qtr gaintampa-st. petersburg-clearwater26.24.5jacksonville21.44.4florida26.64.3fort lauderdale-pompano beach-deerfield beach 29.34.3sarasota-bradenton-venice28.23.8punta gorda26.13.3palm bay-me