宏观经济成果和COVID19进度报告

1、宏观经济成果和covid19进度报告 m acr oeconomic o utes and c o vid-19: a p r ogr ess r epor t j es u ? s f ern a ? nde z-v illaver de charles i. j ones ? up enn and nber s tanfor d gsb and nber s eptember 13, 202x v ersion 0.5 a bstract this paper bines data on gd p , unemplo yment, and g oogle s co vid-19 com-

2、munity m obility r epor ts with data on deaths fr om c o vid-19 to study the macr oe- conomic outes of the pandemic . w e pr esent results fr om an international per - spectiv e using data at the country level as w ell as results for individual u.s. states and key cities thr oughout the world. the d

3、ata fr om these differ ent lev els of geo- gr aphic aggr egation offer a r emar kably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heter ogeneity in outes . countries like k or ea, j apan, g er many , and n or way and cities such as t oky o and s eoul hav e par ativ ely few deaths and lo w m

4、acr oeconomic losses . a t the other extr eme , n ew y or k city , lombardy , the u nited k ingdom, and m adr id hav e many deaths and lar ge macr oeconomic losses . ther e ar e few er locations that seem to sueed on one dimension but suffer on the other , but these include c alifor nia and s w eden

5、 and potentially offer useful policy lessons . ? w e ar e grateful to andy atkeson and j im s tock for many helpful ments and discussions . 1. i ntr oduction this paper bines data on gd p , unemplo yment, and g oogle s co vid-19 commu- nity m obility r epor ts with data on deaths fr o m c o vid-19 t

6、o study the macr oeconomic outes of the pandemic . w e pr esent r esults fr om an international perspectiv e us- ing data at the country lev el as w ell as r esults for individual u.s. states and ke y cities thr oughout the world. the evidence to date can be summar iz ed in a styliz ed way b y f igu

7、r e 1 . o n the hor iz ontal axis is the number of deaths (per million population) fr om c o vid-19. the v er tical axis sho ws a cumulativ e measur e of the macr oeconomic losses apar t fr om the v alue of the loss in life; for simplicity her e w e call this the “ gdp loss . ” throughout this paper

8、 , w e will sho w data for v ar ious countr ies , u.s. states , and global cities to fill in this gr aph quantitativ el y . w e will also sho w the dynamics of ho w countr ies tr av erse thr ough this space o v er time . f or now , though, w e simply summar ize in a styliz ed way our main findings .

9、 f igur e 1: s ummar y of the t r ade-off e vidence gdp l os s co v i d d e a th s o ne can divi de the gr aph into four quadr ants , based on many v ersus few deaths fr om c o vid-19 and on lar ge v ersus small losses in gd p . o ur first inter esting finding is that ther e ar e munities in all fou

10、r quandr ants . i n the lo w er left cor ner of the di agr am the quadr ant with the best outes c alifor nia lucky? too tight? n ew y or k city lombardy u nited k ingdom m adr id unlucky? bad policy? g er many , n or way j apan, s. k or ea china, t aiwan kentucky , m ontana lucky? good policy? s w e

11、den unlucky? too loose? ar e g ermany , n or way , china, j apan, s outh k or ea, and t aiwan as w ell as u.s. states such as kentucky , m ontana, and i daho . s ome bination of good luck and good policy means that these locations hav e exper ienced par ativ ely few c ovid deaths as a fr action of t

12、heir populations while simultaneously keeping the losses in economic activity r elativ ely lo w . i n the opposite quadr ant the one with the worst outes n ew y or k city , lombardy , the u nited k ingdom, and m adr id ar e emblematic of places that hav e had par ativ ely high death r ates and lar g

13、e macr oeconomic losses . s ome bination of bad luck and policy mistakes is likely r esponsible for the poor per for mance on both dimensions . these locations w er e unlucky to be hit r elativ ely early in the pandemic, per haps b y a str ain of the vir us that was mor e contagious . b eing hit ear

14、ly also meant that munities often did no t take appr opr iate measures in nursing homes and car e facilities to ensur e that the most susceptible w er e adequately pr otected and that the medical pr otocols at hospitals w er e less w ell-dev elop . the other two quadr ants of the char t stand out in

15、 inter esting ways , having good per for mance on one dimension and poor per for mance on the other . c ompar ed to n ew y or k, lombardy , m adr id, and the u.k., s w eden and s tockholm had par able death r ates with much smaller losses in economic activity . b ut of course , that is not the only

16、par ison: r elativ e to n or way and g ermany , s w eden had many mor e deaths and par able losses in economic activity . r elativ e to the worst outes in the nor theast quadr ant, s w eden is a suess . b ut r elativ e to what was possib le as illustr ated b y g ermany and n or way s w eden could ha

17、v e done better . c alifor nia, in the quadr ant opposite of s w eden, also makes for an inter esting - parison. r elativ e to n ew y or k, c alifor nia had similarly lar ge losses in economic activ- ity but far few er deaths . i n r ecent months , both states had unemplo yment r ates on the or der

18、of 15 per cent. b ut n ew y or k had 1700 deaths per million r esidents while c alifor nia had just 300. f r om n ew y or k s perspectiv e , c alifor nia looks enviable . o n the other hand, c alifor nia looks less suessful when p ar ed to g ermany , n or way , j apan, and s outh k or ea. these plac

19、es had similarly lo w deaths but much smaller losses in economic activity . o nce again, r elativ e to what was possible as illustr ated b y the best-per for ming places in the world c alifor nia could hav e done better . o ne of the most impor tant cav eats in this analysis is that the pandemic con

20、tinues . this char t and the graphs below that it is based on may v er y w ell look quite differ ent six months fr om now . o ne of the most impor tant di mensions of luck is r elated to whether a location was hit early b y the pandemic or has not y et? been sev er ely affected. w ill a v aine or ch

21、eap , widespread testing end the pandemic befor e these places ar e impacted? s till, with this cav eat in mind, pr obably the most impor tant lesson of the paper is that ther e ar e a good number of places in the lo w er -left quadr ant of the graph: with the r ight policies , good outes on both th

22、e gdp and c ovid mor tality outes ar e possible . p laces like china, g ermany , j apan, n or way , s outh k or ea and t aiwan ar e heter ogeneous on v ar ious dimensions . the set includes lar ge , dense cities such as s eoul and t oky o . the set includes nations that w er e for ewar ned b y exper

23、iences with sars and mers, but also countr ies like g ermany and n or way that did not hav e this dir ect exper ience . ther e ar e places that w er e hit early , like china and s outh k or ea, and places that w er e hit later , like g ermany and n or wa y . o ur paper does n ot highlight precisely

24、what they did to get the se good outes , but it suggests wher e to look for these deeper lessons . i n the r emainder of the paper , w e pr esent the detailed evidence that underlies this styliz ed summar y . s ection 2 lays out a basi c fr amewor k for thinki ng about this diagram. s ection 3 pr es

25、ents evidence for countr ies using data on gdp fr om the first and second quar ters of 202x to measur e the macr oeconomic outes . i t also sho ws evidence for u.s. states using monthly unemplo yment r ates . s ection 4 then turns to a ple- mentar y sour ce of data on economic activity , the g oogle

26、 c ommunity m obility r epor ts . w e sho w that these economic activity measures ar e highly corr elated with gdp and unemplo yment r ates . the g oogle measures hav e additional adv antages , ho wev er . i n particular , they ar e av ailable for a lar ge number of locations at v ar ying geogr aphi

27、c lev els of aggr egation, ar e r epor ted at t he daily fr equency , and ar e r epor ted with a lag of only just a f ew days , a particularly impor tant featur e given the natur al lags in nip a r epor ting. w e r epr oduce our earlier finding s using the g oogle data and also pr oduce new char ts

28、for key cities ar ound the world. the city -lev el data is impor tant because of concer ns about aggr egating to , say , the national lev el acr oss r egions of v ar ying densities . s ec- tion 5 sho ws the dynamic v ersion of our graphs at the monthly fr equency using the g oogle data, so w e can s

29、ee ho w differ ent locations ar e ev olving o v er time . f inally , s ection 6 offers some closing thoughts . literatur e r eview . ov er the last few months , a gigantic liter atur e on c o vid-19 and economics has appeared. i t is bey ond our scope to r eview such liter atur e , which tou ches on

30、 multiple questions , fr om the design of optimal mitigation policies ( a cemoglu, cher - no zhuko v , w er ning and whinston , 202x ) to c o vid-19 s impact on gender equality ( alon , doepke , o lmstead-rumsey and t er tilt , 202x ). i nstead, w e highlight thr ee sets of papers that hav e explor

31、ed the inter action betw een c o vid-19, the policy r esponses to it, and economic outes . the first set o f papers has extended standar d economic models to incorpor ate an epidemiological block. among those , early effor ts include a? lv ar e z, ar gente and lippi ( 202x ), e ichenbaum, r ebelo an

32、d t r abandt ( 202x ), g lo v er , h eathcote , kr u eger and r ? ?os- r ull ( 202x ), and f arboodi, j ar osch and s himer ( 202x ). i n this tr adition, the contribu- tions of models with many differ ent sectors ( b aqaee and f ar hi , 202xa , b ; b aqaee , f ar hi, m ina and s tock , 202x ) ar e

33、particularly inter esting for the goal of mer ging micr odata with aggr egate outes and the design of optimal r eopening policies . these models will also ser v e , in the futur e , as potential labor ator ies to measur e the r ole of luck vs . policy that w e discuss abo v e . a second set of pape

34、rs has attempted to measur e the effects of lockdown policies . this measur ement is vital to distinguish betw een the r eduction in economic activity tr igger ed b y economic agents endogenous r eactions (e .g., the v oluntar y cancellation of tr av el) v ersus go v er nment-imposed mandates (e .g.

35、, an international tr av el pr ohibi- tion). a gr o wing consensus suggests that v oluntar y changes in behavior ar e the primar y dr iv er of outes . f or example , g oolsbee and s yv erson ( 202x ) par e consumer behavior within the same muting z ones but acr oss boundar ies with differ ent policy

36、 r egimes to conclude that legal r estr ictions aount only for 7 percentage points (p .p .) of the o v er all r eduction of o v er 60 p .p . in consumer tr affic . h o wev er , the authors docu- ment that legal mandates shift consumer activity acr oss differ ent industries (e .g., fr om r estaurants

37、 into gr ocer ies). e quiv alent r esults ar e r epor ted using smar tphone data b y gupta, nguy en, r ojas , r aman, lee , b ento , s imon and w ing ( 202xb ) and v acancy post- ing and unemplo yment insur ance claims in the u.s. b y f o rsythe , k ahn, lange and w icz er ( 202x ), although gupta,

38、m ontenov o , nguy en, r ojas , schmutte , s imon, w ein- ber g and w ing ( 202xa ) find lar ger effects of go v er nment-mandated lockdo wns on em- plo yment. 1 s imilar findings r egar ding the pr eponder ance of v oluntar y changes in behavior ar e r epor ted for e ur ope b y chen, i gan, pierr i

39、 and p r esbiter o ( 202x ), s outh k or ea b y a um, lee and s hin ( 202x ), and j apan b y w atanabe and yabu ( 202x ). 2 a tkeson, k opecky and zha ( 202x ) highlight, using a r ange of epidemiological models , that a r elativ ely lo w impact of go v er nment mandates is the only way to r econcil

40、e the obser ved data on the pr ogr ession of c ovid acr oss a wide cr oss-section of countr ies with theor y . o n the other hand, the r esults using chinese data in f ang, w ang and y ang ( 202x ) in- dicate that early and aggr essiv e lockdo wns can hav e lar ge effects in contr olling the epi- de

41、mic and findings using g erman data b y m itz e , k osfeld, r ode and w a ¨ lde ( 202x ) point out to the effectiv eness of face masks in slo wing do wn contagi on gr o wth. amuedo- dor antes, k aushal and m uch o w ( 202x ) study u.s. count y -lev el data to ar gue that non- phar maceutical in

42、ter v entions hav e a significant impact on mor tality and infections . a subset of these papers has dealt with s w eden s case , a country that implemented a much mor e lenient lockdown policy than its n or ther n e ur opean neighbors . among the papers that offer a mor e fav or able assessment of

43、the s w edish exper ience , j ur anek, p aet- z old, w inner and z outman ( 202x ) hav e gather ed administrativ e data on w eekly new unemplo yment and furlough spells fr om all 56 r egions of s w eden, d enmar k, f inland, and n or wa y . u sing an ev ent-study difference-in-differ ences , j ur an

44、ek, p aetzold, w inner and z outman ( 202x ) conclude that s w eden s lighter appr oach to lockdo wns tr anslated into betw een 9, 000 and 32,000 seasonally and r egionally adjusted cumulativ e unem- plo yment plus furloughs per million population b y w eek 21 of the pandemi c . i f w e par e , for

45、example , s w eden with n or way , these numbers suggest a cr ude tr ade-off (without contr olling for any other v ar iable) of ar ound 61 jobs lost per life sav ed. 3 on 1 s ince many of these pape rs r ely heavily on smar tphone data, c outur e , d ingel, g r een, h andbury and w illiams ( 202x )

46、sho w that this data is a r eliable snapshot of social activities . 2 n otice that ev en if most of the r eduction in mobility es fr om v oluntary decisions , we might still be far fr om a social optimum (as agents do not fully aount for the contagion externalities they cr eate) or that the go v er

47、nment inf or mation cannot play a r ole in shaping agents belie fs about the state of the epidemic and, ther efor e , influence v oluntary behavior . f ur ther mor e , go v er nment-mandated policies may increase the risky behavior b y agents thr ough a v ersion of the p eltzman effect: if all non-e

48、ssential businesses ar e closed, ther e is less r eason to be cautious when patr onizing an essential business , as the total contagion exposur e is lo w er . 3 among many othe r elements , this putation does not contr ol for the possibility that s w eden, b y getting closer to her d immunity , migh

49、t hav e sav ed futur e deaths or , conv ersely , that higher death r ates today might hav e long-r un scarr ing effects on s w edish gdp and labor mar ket. the negativ e side , b or n, d ietrich and m u ¨ ller ( 202x ) and cho ( 202x ), using a synthetic contr ol appr oach, find that st r icter

50、 lockdown measures w ould hav e been associated with lo w er ex cess mor tality in s w eden b y betw een a quar ter and a third. the thir d set of papers has studied ho w to monitor the economy in r eal time ( c a- jner , c r ane , d ecker , g r igsby , h amins-p uertolas , h urst, k ur z and yildir

51、 maz , 202x ; s tock , 202x ), ho w the sector al position of each country matters for the r epor ted output and emplo yment losses ( g ottlieb , g r obo vsek, p oschke and s altiel , 202x ), and the im- pact of concr ete policy measures . among the latter , chetty , f r iedman, h endr en, s tep- ne

52、r and t eam ( 202x ) ar gue that stimulating aggr egate demand or pr o viding liquidity to businesses might hav e limited effects when the main constr ained in the unwillingness of households to consume due to health r isks and that social insur ance pr ogr ams can be a super ior mitigation tool. 2.

53、 f ramew or k w e focus on two outes in this paper : the loss in economic activity , as captur ed b y r educed gdp or increased unemplo yment , and the number of deaths fr om c o vid- 19. e v en with just these simple oute measures , it is easy to illustr ate the subtle inter actions that our in the

54、 pandemic . f igur e 2: e conomic p olicy t r ade off, h olding h ealth p olicy and l uck constant gdp loss (percent) covid deaths per million people n ote: h olding health policy and “luck ” constant, economic policy implies a tr adeoff between economic activity and deaths fr om c o vid-19. t o beg

55、in, f igur e 2 illustr ates a simple tr adeoff betw een economic act ivity and deaths fr om the pandemic . i n the shor t t erm, economic pol icy can shut the economy do wn sharply , which incr eases the economic losses on the v er tical axis but sav es liv es on the hor iz ontal axis . alternativ e

56、ly , policy could focus on keeping the economy activ e to minimiz e the loss in gdp at the expense of mor e deaths fr om the pandemic . f igur e 3 sho ws that the stor y is mor e plicated when health policy and luck ar e br ought under consider ation. ther e can be a positiv e corr elation betw een

57、economic losses and c ovid deaths . g ood health policy for example , masks , pr otecting nursing homes , and tar geted r eductions in super-spr eader ev ents such as choirs , bars , night- clubs , and parties can r educe the number of deaths . f ur ther mor e , b y r educing the death r ate , such

58、polic ies encour age economic activity and allo w peopl e to r etur n safely shut down economy keep economy open f igur e 3: h ealth p olicy d ecisions and l uck can s hift the t r ade-off gdp loss (percent) covid deaths per million people n ote: h eal th policy and luck can shift the tr adeoff betw

59、een economic activity and deaths fr om c o vid-19. to wor k and to the marketplace . s imilarly , luck plays an impor tant but not y et fully -understood r ole . wher e does the cor onavir us str ike early v ersus late? p er haps a cou ntr y is in the lo w er left cor ner today with lo w deaths and little loss in gdp but only because it has been lucky to av oid a sev er e outbr eak. two months fr om now , things may look differ ent. alternativ ely , is a r egion hit b y a str ain that is less infectious and deadl