香港金融危机（Hongkongfinancialcrisis）

1、香港金融危机(hongkong financial crisis)during the 1997-98 years of financial crisis, mahathir once said, we have worked hard for thirty or forty years, while some people have taken billions of dollars to shake off, and they will be able to set aside the wealth we have accumulated over the past half centur

2、y. in the eyes of some politicians, east asia has been transformed into a street teller machine by soros and otherstaking hongkong as an example, this paper uses a simplified version of how quantum funds and partnets (the following quantum fund / soros refers to internatiorml hedge funds and specula

3、tors) have made the east asian market a cash machine first, give me a vaccination. it's basically impossible to say anything so complicated.backgroundhongkong began implementing the linked exchange rate system (peg) in october 1983, taking into account that hongkong's economy depends on impo

4、rt and export trade and the political future, and that the currency is fixed on the dollar more effectively than the disadvantages. what is peg? the central bank maintains the exchange rate of the hong kong dollar into the us dollar through the market the hongkong monetary authority is responsible f

5、or regulation and exchange rates, while the fed's responsibility is to monitor and interest rates, one word less than ten thousand.there is no such thing as a free lunch. the system benefits imports and exports, but gives up the most important power of the central bank: interest rate adjustments

6、 if the influx of foreign exchange or flee, central bank must intervene to keep the exchange rate unchanged, to increase or decrease the local money supply rapidly, so as to change the interest rate, peg is the interest rate as the regulation system of the hostagesanother problem with peg is that th

7、e government，s maintained exchange rate may we 11 be off the fundamentals of the economy because the exchange rate is not market determined countries in east asia, including thailand, malaysia and indonesia, are mostly using the system to promote an export-oriented economy.from the institutional poi

8、nt of view, the whole east asia has no stronger economy than the economic fundamentals of hongkong and the rule of law. however, 9597 years, two years, the hongkong property market appreciation of 80%, the hang seng index doubled 1.4 times, reaching its peak in august 7, 1997, 16673 points liu mingk

9、ang once commented: hongkong economic hedeheneng so high? hongkong should be scolded, but thailand malaya indonesia up is slower than hongkongthese are the opportunities for hedge funds. the place where soros can drop his mouth is called arbitragetrading, carry trade in brief, soros found that the e

10、ast asian economy was not the same as the formula on economics textbooks he chose to believe in textbooks, not east asian economies chinese society has always looked down upon nerds, and i took the opportunity to help nerds here soros asked the same question: east asia hedeheneng went like this? it

11、can not be sustained in the long run, must return to the fundamentals!the difference between the current market price and the fundamentals is what soros，s classmates want to earn. the peg system in southeast asia and the feverish stock market offered him a place to go. soros often says his actions a

12、re doing good and helping the market go back to basicsadmissionin july 1997, southeast asia had entered a nightmare in its fifty year boom.at the end of june there are rumours of baht devaluation, the market suddenly fashion, thailand central bank to use $7 billion in cash market,23 billion dollars

13、in the forward contract currency market in order to stabilize the value of the thai currency. in july 2, 1997, the central bank of thailand all dollar reserves can not stop selling in almost all thai strains, were forced to give up the fixed exchange rate system, the thai strains a vent trinidad whe

14、n, in mid july in philippines, malaysia and indonesia have felt the strong earthquake comes, then south korea and taiwan, most of east asian currencies and stock trading market in the crumbling wail like ghosts and howl like wolvessoros came in, in which the quantum fund and its partners saw themsel

15、ves as the ac milan, and most of the east asian financial teams and they finally broke down.as soon as he saw the financial avalanche around east asia,hongkong was like an onlooker, staying away, appreciating its strong economic base, and when it came back, the avalanche had washed its feet. in octo

16、ber 21st, morgan stanley suggested that its dients sell their holdings of asian assets this, for example, is like a standing committee member who said on a certain day that guangdong was out of sars, and that beijing might not be able to control it. when people panic, soros，s brothers have long been

17、 waiting on the sidelinesif the hongkong stock market is overheated, the hang seng index should be lowered if the currencies of other southeast asian countries depreciate, hongkong's economy depends on exports, and the hong kong dollar must be depreciated to maintain competitiveness based on the

18、se two simple reasons, shortsell (short) should be profitable, this is the basic judgment of the cable.thanks to the amazing creativity of americans, short sell is selling what you don，t have you can borrow 1 million shares at today，s market price of 10 yuan per share sold, half a year later from th

19、e market to buy 1 million shares back to me. if hong kong stocks after half a year of recession or collapse, you can from the market price of 2 yuan per share to buy one million shares back to me, the middle of a net profit of 8 million hong kong dollars, of course, if you lose the appreciation. tha

20、nks to the development of financial derivatives, there is no need to bother soros, the sale of a stock, the direct trading of the entire market, that is, hang seng index. the hang seng index was sold today at the current market price for a few months and then returned to the market at that time.do t

21、his for arbitrage hedge funds must be hidden, if everyone found the devil into the city, there is no chance, the first thing is to have mastered a lot of hk. although the hong kong dollar convertibility, if someone within a few days every day in the market reaching out to tens of billion dollars for

22、 hong kong dollars, in addition to scared a lot of people, will bring the police (hkma), three meals a day is sure to watch secret 1 y. failure to reveal your goals is a key thanks again to financial derivatives, and soros used swap swap is not complicated. for example, you bought one million us dol

23、lars, ten years treasury bonds paid interest 6%, i bought ten million rmb ten years treasury bonds, pay interest 5%, i need dollars later, and you need rmb again. we exchanged interest income, and found that they did not lose money to meet their needs. the quantum fund debt by $syndicate bank quietl

24、y changed into the ilong kong dollar debt, it only needs a contract in hand, it is quietly i come, not to disturb anyone,a steady stream of cash in hong kong dollarsstart workingit would be easy to say that ilongkong's stock market is overheating for quantum funds, the important thing is how to

25、ensure that the stock market in the prescribed time and prescribed locations mad vent! soros's financial engineers began their cross century masterpiecesthey bought a lot of hang seng index siiortsell contract, incomplete data show that time has signed 80000 contracts on the hang seng index, oct

26、ober 21st day of approximately hk $40 billion in hong kong stocks by short sell this is just the tip of the iceberg, because of their influence and with the wind, other funds and retail investors to follow in large behind the accumulated thousands of million, when all the people began to sell, who s

27、ell cheap who can run, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecywhat，s more, they are selling off hong kong dollars in cash and forward money markets at the same time the hkma in order to maintain the exchange rate began to sell dollar acquisition of hong kong dollars, resulting in the total supply of h

28、k decrease rapidly, interest rates skyrocketed in october 23rd less than noon, the hongkong interbank offered rate hibor rose to 280%101 in the course of economics content, because interest rates soared, the stock market will immediately respond to interest rates, the stock market carnage the reason

29、 is simple if you can buy 500% interest on moneymarket, what will you do with your money in the stock market? high interest rates mean that a lot of money has gone out of the stock market and moved to bond markets and moneymarket at the same time, high interest rates for a long time have led to a sh

30、arp increase in the cost of the business, which will lead to economic depression, and stocks will fall in any casethis is done at the same time in the stock market and currency market, called doubleplay.in october 23rd, the stock market went mad, and the market value of the $40 billion shares vanish

31、edif the stock market continues to collapse, quantum fund took the tens of thousands of siiortsell contracts into cash, patted home, the shareholders， meeting received a commendation, dividendsoften review soros when this one recruit, in the mind not from secretly sigh: "ruthless!"! comrad

32、e xiaoping said, "both hands, both hands should be hard", how to let soros learn so handy. the stock market and the currency exchange market fall somewhere, and they can win money everywhere at that time, the finance secretary donald tsang and the financial secretary ren zhigang was just t

33、he hamlett of hongkong in the late twentieth century, to protect the stock market, or to exchange insurance markets? it，s a big problemin october 28th, the hang seng index fell 1428 points to 9060 points in one day. remember, august 7th is 16673 by 1998 august 13th, the hang seng index had been 6660

34、.this precarious siege!living in this city of people is what attitude?during the 1988 currency expansion has been flying the chronicle of friends remember how people are hoarding and daily necessaries in all markets and some things. i have an old eco no mist on hand, entitled "escape, escape, e

35、scape", november 24, 1997,there is a rumor that the japanese investment in hongkong yaohan department store soon collapsed, and there is a cake shop in the mall, people like to give gifts of cake coupon, the store to hear the news of the collapse, thousands of people crowded fashion, in front o

36、f the store to take broke in and converted into cake coupon. the force was so great that the officers hid and the police stayedbefore talking about how the government responds to the crisis that has not been seen in half a century, it is necessary to review the basic economic concept of the governme

37、ntin the past hundred years, as a group, the internal conflict of human beings has been divided into the "left and right" camp in some sense around the two concepts of equality and freedom the contest between communism and the capitalist world for half a century has been tragically ended,

38、and the debate of this concept continues in a relatively civilized manner in all societies. the debate is full of intelligence, wit, emotion and even hatred.on the left on the right of the people say that you want to be rich but freethe right to left people say: you should just be the slave of equal

39、ityvery few people than marx，s "capital" of the market economy in the ev订 criticism more injured all over the body. few people in be hayek，s "the road to serfdont to bring the expansion of government power man-madezz have more compassion pain.given the global context of the debate, it

40、 is necessary to define some of the abused terms to avoid 3mbiguity caused by the confusion in english translation, i call the leftist liberal / progressive "progressives" and call the rightist "conservative" a conservative the basic distinction between the two is that progressiv

41、es advocated by the government to actively intervene in various industries; specification; tax increase transfer payments to achieve equality and freedom, the modern spiritual leader is british economist keynes, representative of the political is the united states, roosevelt and linden johnson.conse

42、rvatives think that the government is the biggest threat to personal freedom in the human history, the expansion of government intervention you, spoil everything, is tantamount to asking for trouble the basic idea is deregulation; and market freedom; the lower the tax the better; the smaller the gov

43、ernment, the better. it is the ideological source of far can be traced back to adams smith，s "'invisible hand" in the modern spiritual leader is nobel laureate hayek, representative of the political is thatcher and the british reagan had just diedin the territory of the world economy,

44、hongkong in 50s and 60s is still an unknown island, because of its economic decision to free economic policies and support the idea of conservatism firm, hongkong became a rat experimental field of conservatism, economic liberalism.for nearly half a century, the basic policies pursued by the hong ko

45、ng government inelude the following main measures:一 a policy of near zero intervention in the market;-low tax policy, the highest personal income tax rate of 15%, the highest corporate profits and taxes of 16%;-there is no limit to the flow and investment of foreign capital;- free returns of foreign

46、 corporate profits;一 markets to set wages and prices;there is no restriction on the local content of foreign trade:一 strictly limiting the growth of government spending below the rate of economic growth,the government has no budget surplus deficit;-maintaining the system of separation of powers and

47、governance, ensuring a transparent and open rule of law and encouraging competition;this policy has earned hongkong the title of the freest economy in the world half a century of conservative policy has made remarkable achievements, an amazing wealth created a tiny area although there are a lot of w

48、ealthy class, but not a large area of free economy usually produced by poverty. per capita income of about $24000, gdp growth remained at 5%, the unemployment rate has been below 3% for a long time these are any western finance ministers and central bank governors and highly covetedfar beyond reach.

49、this former desert island has become the most dazzling pearl in asia, a white mouse has grown into a dragon, a blank experimental field built a conservative concept of a lighthouse. if this is a city of europe and america, it has become a mecca for conservatives1997-1998 years, hongkong faces the mo

50、st severe test of the financial crisisconservative economists are sweating hongkong, out of confidence in market logic and the fundamentals of hongkong, and expect hongkong to deal with the crisis with prudent conservatismin the southeast asian financial market has been littered with corpses, when i

51、n hongkong. zhu rongji, the prime minister, told reporters at a news conference in hongkong that the central government would defend hongkong at all costs! this in western society are not dare to speak, a bit of taxpayer money by without rhyme or reason, what can you at all costs in the small countr

52、ies of southeast asia, the authoritarian leader, like mahathir, liked to talk casually, but it was no use talkingthis is a top of the mountain in huashan.unfortunately, when the master blows the ordinary most of the audience don，t understand why, is the front of soros and his partners, a rumor that

53、the cable when the tea drink half of the glass fell to the ground, he felt zhu words flashed killer, but immediately said calmly. a: he that money can do what? china when foreign exchange reserves of about $one hundred and forty billion, if the hongkong stock and currency markets as a great escape l

54、ike thailand, this money is enough in the market support for two or three weeks, so that the series was not completely outrageous.hongkong，s newspaper tradition has a lot of negative views on chinese leaders, but zhu is the best known politician in hongkong, with no comparable influence or charm man

55、y years later i heard a saying: the people of hong kong in 1998 to hear the words of zhu, the people around him in the eyes are shining with tears because of the trust of the people in hongkong, zhu is now the only one in east asia，s financial market with credibility at this time, hongkong, really l

56、ike a crying in the nightmare of the children, and finally feel the warmth of mother，s embrace, slowly began to calm down.however, from 16673 in august 7, 1997 to 1998 august 13th, the hang seng index was now 6660. from time to time by zhu propaganda is not enough, donald tsang and ren zhigang final

57、ly decided to cooperate with the classmate zhu propaganda, to the night when they crept into the stock market,just like a few months ago, soros slipped into the market in the ensuing days, large-scale acquisition of shares began.it should be said that very few people think, is certainly beyond the i

58、magination of soros, the pursue zero intervention conservative economic policies of the government, in the face of currencies or when the stock market is to keep the difficult decision, carrying $about 98000000000 of foreign-exchange reserves (and 140 billion zhu boss promised absolutely anything be

59、hind, decided to enter the two at the same time) a market for large-scale battlethe basic process of fighting is fierce, than the liaoning shenyang campaign tashan zujizhan. this is an intellectual contest, but also a civil will and spirit of the contest in august 14, 1998, the hong kong government entered the market within half a month, the hong kong government had ten rounds with the international speculators in august 27th, we invested 20 billion hong kong dollars a day, taking the futures that speculators th